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The Kessel File-Volume 2 - Phil Wants Out of Beantown

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Old
09-12-2009, 08:53 PM
  #951
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1st+1st+2nd better be a player who puts the Leafs over the top. With Kessel, the Leafs are 1 1st line player away in my opinion, and by trading those picks, that guy will have to come via trade or UFA. I also wonder what else that package could get for the Leafs at the draft next year, if the cap comes down.

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09-12-2009, 08:55 PM
  #952
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1+1+2 was said to be "as part of the deal"...maybe Boston is giving us something in addition to Kessel?

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09-12-2009, 09:02 PM
  #953
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Originally Posted by BIG BLUE View Post
1+1+2 was said to be "as part of the deal"...maybe Boston is giving us something in addition to Kessel?
I'm not usre Boston would be giving up much of value. The won't want to give up a roster player, and they will need their cheap prospects. If there was a draft pick involved, than why would the Leafs 2nd be involved.

edit: Maybe the Woz will come back.

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09-12-2009, 09:13 PM
  #954
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ah, the famous 2003 draft.

Would you trade Jessiman (12th '03) and Bernier (16th '03) for Kessel?



or 2 of #9 Taticek, #10 Nystrom, #12 Eminger, #14 Higgins, #15 Ninmaki, #16 Klepis, #17 Gordon, #18 Grebeshkov, #19 Koreis, #20 Paille?



Or 2 of #10 Blackburn, #11 Sjostrom, #12 Hamhuis, #14 Kobasew, #15 Kynazev, #16 Umberger, #17 Cola, #18 karlsson, #19 Morrisson, #20 Goc?
Zeke, those examples I gave you were to illustrate the fact that yes, you can acquire elite level talent in the teens. (And the 20s and the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th rounds.) I just wanted to remind you that that possibility exists, something you seem to be in denial about.

Phil Kessel isn't the be all and end all of offensive talent.


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let's not pretend that the odds of getting a Kessel with either of 2 mid-round picks are anwhere close to "good".
The funny thing about the draft is you make your own odds and you aren't assigned random players: you put the energy into scouting to target the right guys and you nurture them to be what they can be. The process is far from fool proof but the fact that some organizations consistently do better than others suggests that we're not talking about blind odds but a process whose odds can be improved upon if you do your homework. And looking at our prospect pool, we've benefited from that a little bit, no? Or should be just package every promising kid up for a slightly more proven asset?

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Yeah, and you don't get a Sidney Crosby for 2 mid first round picks.
Well I guess you get what you pay for. Kessel would supposedly be the best offensive talent we've had in years and a real franchise cornerstone, but he's leaving a Bruins team that has a core of Savard, Lucic, Chara, Wideman, Krejci. All drafted OUTSIDE of the first round.

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he does, however, compare well to other top-5 picks at the same age like Thornton, Gaborik, Heatley, Spezza, nash, horton, Vanek, Ryan, Toews,
Thornton, Gaborik, Heatley, Spezza, Nash, Horton have all been pretty poor franchise cornerstones whose teams have experienced very little playoff success.

And Kessel does not compare to Toews at all. Here's the difference: one is the face of the franchise whom you'd never get close to making a move for, the other is plainly available.

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and much better than other top-5 picks like the Sedins, Connolly, Weiss, M.Koivu, zherdev, etc.
At the same age doesn't mean that much, a lot of players are late bloomers, some regress, some develop in a linear fashion.

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09-12-2009, 09:25 PM
  #955
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Originally Posted by BIG BLUE View Post
1+1+2 was said to be "as part of the deal"...maybe Boston is giving us something in addition to Kessel?
this is what Im thinking, maybe Savard

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09-12-2009, 09:26 PM
  #956
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Jeez, potentially throwing out a pair of lottery picks for 1 player is pretty steep.

I didnt like the idea of just giving 1st, 2nd and 3rd rounders, you can imagine how I feel about this

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09-12-2009, 09:27 PM
  #957
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1st, 1st and 2nd for Kessel!?! Thats a bit much IMO.

Kessel won't be able to play till december for crying out loud..... and there is always that chance that he won't fully recover.

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09-12-2009, 09:31 PM
  #958
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I agree, the offer sheet concept even had me worried, but giving up 2 1st's? Only way I would do that if they are picks 15th or later. But even giving up 2 mid firsts is a gamble. I like Kessel and he's just what we need, but unless more than Kessel is coming back I don't like that deal.

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09-12-2009, 09:31 PM
  #959
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Originally Posted by Woodman19 View Post
Jeez, potentially throwing out a pair of lottery picks for 1 player is pretty steep.

I didnt like the idea of just giving 1st, 2nd and 3rd rounders, you can imagine how I feel about this
Not a chance in hell we have a lottery team this year. And I expect we'll be even better next season.

Why do you care anyway Kings fan?

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09-12-2009, 09:32 PM
  #960
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I sure hope we can get htem both to be top 10 protected

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09-12-2009, 09:34 PM
  #961
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i dont think you udnerstand what a player like Kessel does to a team overall.

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09-12-2009, 09:36 PM
  #962
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hmm...if we give up 1+1+2, and sign him to a salary that would've netted Boston 1+2+3 had he signed an offer sheet with us...that would blow...

I know Burkey would prefer to do a deal with Chia but come on...

in a way it's like throwing away a 1st for a 3rd for nothing but good will among GMs

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09-12-2009, 09:38 PM
  #963
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This could be a move that could either give us a superstar player or gives Boston the picks to draft the next generation of Bruins.

Very high risk indeed.

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09-12-2009, 09:39 PM
  #964
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Originally Posted by Stephen View Post
Would you trade Dustin Brown and Zach Parise for Phil Kessel?

Or Alex Semin alone (and Boyd Gordon as a throw in) for Phil Kessel?

Or Ales Hemsky and Carlo Colaiacovo for Phil Kessel?

Let's not pretend people have never nabbed elite talent with picks in the mid teens.

And as far as Kessel being a proven commodity at 21, we don't know if he'll end up being a great player like Pat Lafontaine or fizzle out like a Jimmy Carson or Ed Olzcyk. So it's hardly a no brainer to pay that steep price for Phil Kessel. He's not Sidney Crosby.
You can't say that the 10% chance these picks will turn out as front line players is a big reason to to keep the picks and then say that Kessel the 40 goal 21 year old is bad odds to repeat so don't do it. He is pretty well 100% odds to hit 30 again, better the 50% to hit 40, and maybe a 20% chance to hit 50 plus. The odds of him becoming a huge star are greater than two random pics out of the top 8 ever hitting 30 goals.
You can't stack up potential against actual. Kessel has already beat the 50% odds a first rounder will never play a full season in the NHL and the 75% odds against them becoming a top 6 everyday player.
I am not a fan of dumping first rounders for vets but it isn't like there is a 50-50 chance one of them is going to be PK. He is better at age 21 then Lecavalier, the Sedins, Savard, Parise, Gagne, or Getzlaf. He could be Jimmy Carson but it is somewhat more likely the two first rounders will be Jeff Ware and Nik Antropov.
I won't really regret it if they keep the picks because PK isn't one of my favorites and the picks are sort of like lottery tickets, but daydreams aside, most 1sts amount to very little, except compared to later pics.

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Old
09-12-2009, 09:42 PM
  #965
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I am a supporter of getting Kessel.

I would have no problem of giving up a 1st, 2nd and 3rd to get him or even trading a young player such as White, Stajan, Poni, or lesser prospect on top of that.

The trading of two 1sts and a 2nd I am a bit hesitant on. Not so much on the 1sts or 2nd round picks but on not having a first round selection in two consecutive years. Just having Tlusty, Schenn and Kadri selected in three consecutive has drastically changed the out look of our prospect pool.

If there was a way to recoup a first round selection in one of those years I would feel a lot more comfortable with this trade rumor.

But I also don't believe that we could draft and develop a player of his skill level with any of those selections. Would just prefer a different scenario.

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Old
09-12-2009, 09:43 PM
  #966
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didn't he get 36G?
and 20 something assists?

and, the Leafs currently have no Marc Savard level C to feed him...nor a Savard, Chara on the PP for him to work with...yes, Kaberle and Grabo are good but...

Savard is a hell of a passer.

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09-12-2009, 09:44 PM
  #967
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nuck View Post
You can't say that the 10% chance these picks will turn out as front line players is a big reason to to keep the picks and then say that Kessel the 40 goal 21 year old is bad odds to repeat so don't do it. He is pretty well 100% odds to hit 30 again, better the 50% to hit 40, and maybe a 20% chance to hit 50 plus. The odds of him becoming a huge star are greater than two random pics out of the top 8 ever hitting 30 goals.
You can't stack up potential against actual. Kessel has already beat the 50% odds a first rounder will never play a full season in the NHL and the 75% odds against them becoming a top 6 everyday player.
I am not a fan of dumping first rounders for vets but it isn't like there is a 50-50 chance one of them is going to be PK. He is better at age 21 then Lecavalier, the Sedins, Savard, Parise, Gagne, or Getzlaf. He could be Jimmy Carson but it is somewhat more likely the two first rounders will be Jeff Ware and Nik Antropov.
I won't really regret it if they keep the picks because PK isn't one of my favorites and the picks are sort of like lottery tickets, but daydreams aside, most 1sts amount to very little, except compared to later pics.
It's a legitimate concern.

I notice everyone is pointing out how 1st rounders are not a sure thing and that for a player like Kessel it should be a slam dunk, but I what I also notice is. They arent accounting for moving potentiall 3 top 40 picks. with 2 of them being in a strong draft class.

Drafting star, or even good players in the 2nd round isnt a abnormality it certainly drastically increases Boston's chances of being a force for the next decade handing them over 3 picks over the next two years.

I think due to the fact we havent fully stocked up our system to be able to count on it in the future we should not be moving that many high end picks, god forbid we ever can accumulate a talent pool comparible to teams like the Kings, Penguins, Blackhawks and Blues.

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Old
09-12-2009, 09:49 PM
  #968
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Originally Posted by BIG BLUE View Post
hmm...if we give up 1+1+2, and sign him to a salary that would've netted Boston 1+2+3 had he signed an offer sheet with us...that would blow...

I know Burkey would prefer to do a deal with Chia but come on...

in a way it's like throwing away a 1st for a 3rd for nothing but good will among GMs
No there is a money component there that could be substantial. The offer sheet has to be a number and a contract length that the Bruins would not want to mess with. A trade means they only have to make a deal that Kessel would play for. The difference could be millions over the term.

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Old
09-12-2009, 09:53 PM
  #969
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I see what you mean...

I'm still jittery about 1+1+2 though...

Leafs trading 1sts....the hockey gods always punish us for that

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09-12-2009, 10:03 PM
  #970
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FWIW apparently Sportsnet is also reporting that we offered Two first's and a second Round pick for Kessel. I honestly dont know how I feel about this. I think I'd do it....

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09-12-2009, 10:03 PM
  #971
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nuck View Post
You can't say that the 10% chance these picks will turn out as front line players is a big reason to to keep the picks and then say that Kessel the 40 goal 21 year old is bad odds to repeat so don't do it. He is pretty well 100% odds to hit 30 again, better the 50% to hit 40, and maybe a 20% chance to hit 50 plus. The odds of him becoming a huge star are greater than two random pics out of the top 8 ever hitting 30 goals.
You can't stack up potential against actual. Kessel has already beat the 50% odds a first rounder will never play a full season in the NHL and the 75% odds against them becoming a top 6 everyday player.
Made up percentages and odds like "10% chance these picks will turn out as front line players" don't really mean anything though. What you need to realize is the draft isn't a random draw. Your scouting staff and developmental system goes a long way towards improving whatever historical odds are attached to these picks succeeding. And looking at the draft, fantastically talented players have been drafted outside of the top 10. Just look at Boston's core and tell me where each of those guys were picked.

Quote:
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I am not a fan of dumping first rounders for vets but it isn't like there is a 50-50 chance one of them is going to be PK. He is better at age 21 then Lecavalier, the Sedins, Savard, Parise, Gagne, or Getzlaf. He could be Jimmy Carson but it is somewhat more likely the two first rounders will be Jeff Ware and Nik Antropov.
I won't really regret it if they keep the picks because PK isn't one of my favorites and the picks are sort of like lottery tickets, but daydreams aside, most 1sts amount to very little, except compared to later pics.
Again, the Jeff Ware, Nik Antropov argument makes no sense because a) we're lookinng at a different management team with different scouts. Just because the Leafs did a piss poor job 10-15 years ago doesn't mean they're going to screw up in 2010 and 2011. Plus b) Antropov was a pretty decent pick.

There are so many question marks surrounding Kessel that people are refusing to see. I admit that it would be really exciting to see the Leafs make a big splash like that, but that doesn't mean it's a risk free, solid move to make.

The guy is coming off a major shoulder injury and surgery. It's not a given he finds his form.

Kessel was a breakthrough player on a first place team with young guns firing on all cylinders. He's not going to have that support cast in Toronto for a long time considering where our prospects are at now, so it remains to be seen how he'll respond as the leading man.

If Kessel is so fantastic, why don't the Bruins value him more and just give him whatever money he wants? I.e. the way everybody else treats their franchise players. And if he's too demanding, do we really want a high maintenance superstar?

Past character and work ethic concerns.

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Old
09-12-2009, 10:05 PM
  #972
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Kessel worth two 1st Round picks??

http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/news/story?id=4467812


Don't get me wrong I'm really excited about the thought of getting kessel but by no means is he worth two first round picks and a second rounder.. Am I wrong?

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Old
09-12-2009, 10:08 PM
  #973
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SchennForCaptain View Post
http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/news/story?id=4467812


Don't get me wrong I'm really excited about the thought of getting kessel but by no means is he worth two first round picks and a second rounder.. Am I wrong?
Buds, this is already being discussed in the Kessel thread.

LOL Already moved. (edit)

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Old
09-12-2009, 10:09 PM
  #974
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SchennForCaptain View Post
http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/news/story?id=4467812


Don't get me wrong I'm really excited about the thought of getting kessel but by no means is he worth two first round picks and a second rounder.. Am I wrong?
I'd say you're wrong. How many players under 23 scored 35+ goals last season? Leafs crave an elite talent like Kessel and if it means sligtly overpaying then so be it. Also It's just a rumor so there is a decent chance this hasn't even been offered.

Time will tell.

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09-12-2009, 10:11 PM
  #975
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I think it's appropriate that Boston gets 2 of Toronto's firsts just for the sake of tradition. Brad Boyes, Marc Stuart, Tuukka Rask. What's another couple of 1st rounders between friends? If we don't get Kessel we should consider trading a couple of first rounders to St. Louis.

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