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Old
09-21-2009, 11:32 PM
  #1
Squiffy
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The Kessel Thread

Well, I added it up.. no less then 7 Kessel threads on our front page here, and the main one is at 950 posts anyhow, it's going down soon of its own accord anyhow. The season is coming, it's time we got used to being a little more regulated here. Summer is always a little loose..

Here be going all ye're Kessel thoughts. I do be apologizing to all ye what don't likes too much merging, but the ship be off kilter and aimed at Davy Jones locker right now. Hard to Starboard we go.

------------------------------------


Give me a few to figure out to do this as painlessly as possible.

--------------------------------------

Article: Bruins might have matched T.O.'s offer sheet for Kessel

Kessel's Ceiling

Original Kessel Trade Thread

Kessel Linemates

Berger: Do Leafs already have a linemate for Kessel?

-----------------------------------

Okay, the above five are closed, and we're starting this one for Kessel discussion. Don't take it personally if your new thread gets merged into it, I don't think anyone can argue too much that this is necessary at this point..

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Last edited by Squiffy: 09-21-2009 at 11:49 PM.
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Old
09-21-2009, 11:53 PM
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Bump... Kessel talk here.

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Old
09-21-2009, 11:54 PM
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It's nice to see the bag off of your Avatar Squiff.

Cheers to a good season man.

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Old
09-21-2009, 11:59 PM
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Squiffy
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Heh.. thanks Snipe, it feels good. We'll see if it's justified or not, feeling good about it though.

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09-22-2009, 12:01 AM
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Originally Posted by Snipeshow View Post
It's nice to see the bag off of your Avatar Squiff.

Cheers to a good season man.
sweet, I didn't even notice that! Welcome back Squiffy!

maybe I should finally change my avatar since there's a new air about this team.

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Old
09-22-2009, 12:01 AM
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Heh.. thanks Snipe, it feels good. We'll see if it's justified or not, feeling good about it though.
Hey I am just as happy to no longer be a part of Tank Nation.

Both sides of the spectrum are finally One as Leafs Nation again haha.

It's going to feel great cheering for wins game in and game out! I obviously still had that soft spot when the Leafs would have a great comeback last season. But this season, it's balls out for wins.

GO LEAFS GO!!!

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Old
09-22-2009, 12:03 AM
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Good call squiff. I didn't know where to post my thoughts on not needing a centre like savard when you've got a dman like kaberle. Put it in the trade thread but fits better here.

Can't wait to see a diagonal pass from kabs to kessel in front of the net for a Darcy Tucker like goal, or a stretch pass from kabs 5 on 5 where kessel flies down the wing.

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Old
09-22-2009, 12:09 AM
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Squiffy
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Originally Posted by EvanLackey View Post
sweet, I didn't even notice that! Welcome back Squiffy!

maybe I should finally change my avatar since there's a new air about this team.
Thanks, kinda took most of the summer off from here, gearing back up for the season. There's still bonus interwebz points out there for anyone who tells me why I put the bag on my Avy's head on January 10th, 2008, without googling it.

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Old
09-22-2009, 12:09 AM
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Originally Posted by william_adams View Post
Good call squiff. I didn't know where to post my thoughts on not needing a centre like savard when you've got a dman like kaberle. Put it in the trade thread but fits better here.

Can't wait to see a diagonal pass from kabs to kessel in front of the net for a Darcy Tucker like goal, or a stretch pass from kabs 5 on 5 where kessel flies down the wing.
Kaberle is going to put up big numbers with someone finishing his passes on a regular basis.

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Old
09-22-2009, 12:11 AM
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Leaf Rocket
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Originally Posted by Snipeshow View Post
Hey I am just as happy to no longer be a part of Tank Nation.

Both sides of the spectrum are finally One as Leafs Nation again haha.

It's going to feel great cheering for wins game in and game out! I obviously still had that soft spot when the Leafs would have a great comeback last season. But this season, it's balls out for wins.

GO LEAFS GO!!!
Same here although im still down about losing the second first round pick, but that's the heart, not the brain hahaha. So now it should be good to see when the leafs finally kill everyone defensive and offensive with mr. kessel leading the way, hopefully kulemin and tlusty will tap into their scoring ways now with kessel in the environment.

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Old
09-22-2009, 12:23 AM
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Kessel is the man.

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09-22-2009, 12:24 AM
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Originally Posted by Squiffy View Post
Thanks, kinda took most of the summer off from here, gearing back up for the season. There's still bonus interwebz points out there for anyone who tells me why I put the bag on my Avy's head on January 10th, 2008, without googling it.
Other than early January being the midway mark of the season (allstar week usually? I think?) I got nothing... and I don't want to google it and ruin it for someone else.

I'll give bonus points to anyone who knows the character in mine. Although there are a lot of people here much to young to know.

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Old
09-22-2009, 12:29 AM
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burke sold out our chances to win a cup in the future for a mediocre top 5 to top 15 finish per yr for the next several yrs

because he went and got a kessel by giving away our picks

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Old
09-22-2009, 12:30 AM
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burke sold out our chances to win a cup in the future for a mediocre top 5 to top 15 finish per yr for the next several yrs

because he went and got a kessel by giving away our picks
The picks will only be 4 and 5 years younger then Kessel.

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09-22-2009, 12:38 AM
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Leaf Rocket
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I think aside from those picks we are gonna get some like second rounders, and i was down too leaf lander but i think it makes sense now before it was just weird lol

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Old
09-22-2009, 12:41 AM
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I just want to make a random statement. I've been watching some highlight vids of Kessel and I don't see all these so called set up goals by Savard. Everyone is talking about how the Leafs don't have a set up man for Kessel and how Savard helped him so much. Has anyone thought that Kessel was the one that helped Savard get so many assists and points. I'm not completely downplaying Savard as a player, he's very good but for the people who seem to think without Savard Kessel isn't nearly the player he is... tune it down a bit.

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Old
09-22-2009, 01:17 AM
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Originally Posted by Stats01 View Post
I just want to make a random statement. I've been watching some highlight vids of Kessel and I don't see all these so called set up goals by Savard. Everyone is talking about how the Leafs don't have a set up man for Kessel and how Savard helped him so much. Has anyone thought that Kessel was the one that helped Savard get so many assists and points. I'm not completely downplaying Savard as a player, he's very good but for the people who seem to think without Savard Kessel isn't nearly the player he is... tune it down a bit.
Not saying Kessel's goal totals were the direct result of Savard's playmaking, but it certainly helps to have a top 5 passer on your line, and to answer your question, Savard put up 90+ before he ever played with Phil. Phil on the other hand has yet to score 30+ without Savard.

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09-22-2009, 01:19 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LTL View Post
The picks will only be 4 and 5 years younger then Kessel.

3> 1

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Old
09-22-2009, 01:23 AM
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3> 1
3x0.2 < 1x1.0


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09-22-2009, 01:40 AM
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i hope to god this kid comes out strong... way too much pressure for a guy thats going to be nursing an injured shoulder...

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Old
09-22-2009, 02:23 AM
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with kaberle feeding him, Kessel should get some great goals on the rush

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Old
09-22-2009, 03:52 AM
  #22
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Originally Posted by MSP4LYFE View Post
Not saying Kessel's goal totals were the direct result of Savard's playmaking, but it certainly helps to have a top 5 passer on your line, and to answer your question, Savard put up 90+ before he ever played with Phil. Phil on the other hand has yet to score 30+ without Savard.
Savard's 12 seasons to Kessel's 3rd.

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Old
09-22-2009, 06:23 AM
  #23
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Because of the constant whinings about how these picks set us back an eternity and put us in a win now mood (which is terrible reasoning to begin with), I decided to do a little statistical analysis of 10 recent drafts, to see the actual value of the players picked between 10 and 15, which is where I most realistically see us picking. The most recent draft I analyzed was 2004, considering that typically people consider a 5 year span to be a good time to analyze the actual merits of a draft.

2004
10 Atlanta Boris Valabik D
11 Los Angeles Lauri Tukonen R
12 Minnesota A.J. Thelen D
13 Buffalo Drew Stafford R
14 Edmonton Devan Dubnyk G
15 Nashville Alexander Radulov R

Ignoring Radulov bolting for Russia, that's 2 solid players (but no real stars), and 4 players who didn't amount to anything on the NHL level.

2003
10 Mtl. Canadiens Andrei Kostitsyn R
11 Philadelphia Jeff Carter C
12 NY Rangers Hugh Jessiman R
13 Los Angeles Dustin Brown R
14 Chicago Brent Seabrook D
15 NY Islanders Robert Nilsson C

One player who can be considered of Kessel's level (Carter), three very solid players (Kostitsyn, Brown, Seabrook), a player who got in a decent amount of games but never did a lot, and a major bust.

2002
10 Calgary Eric Nystrom L
11 Buffalo Keith Ballard D
12 Washington Steve Eminger D
13 Washington Alexander Semin R
14 Mtl. Canadiens Chris Higgins L
15 Edmonton Jesse Niinimaki C

One (potential) star who is likely to end up a step below Kessel. Three fairly solid NHL players, one depth player, one bust.

2001
10 NY Rangers Dan Blackburn G
11 Phoenix Fredrik Sjostrom R
12 Nashville Dan Hamhuis D
13 Edmonton Ales Hemsky R
14 Calgary Chuck Kobasew R
15 Carolina Igor Knyazev D

One star slightly below Kessel's level. Two solid players, one depth guys, and two who never amounted to much on the NHL level. (injuries or not)

2000
10 Chicago Mikhail Yakubov C
11 Chicago Pavel Vorobiev R
12 Anaheim Alexei Smirnov C
13 Mtl. Canadiens Ron Hainsey D
14 Colorado Vaclav Nedorost C
15 Buffalo Artem Kryukov F

One fairly solid NHL player (calling Ron Hainsey solid somehow feels weird), and five players who amounted to pretty much nothing.

1999
10 NY Islanders Branislav Mezei D
11 Calgary Oleg Saprykin L
12 Florida Denis Shvidki R
13 Edmonton Jani Rita L
14 San Jose Jeff Jillson D
15 Phoenix Scott Kelman C

Two players you could at best call 'depth', and four which made no lasting impact on the NHL.

1998
10 Toronto Nikolai Antropov R
11 Carolina Jeff Heerema R
12 Colorado Alex Tanguay L
13 Edmonton Michael Henrich R
14 Phoenix Patrick DesRochers G
15 Ottawa Mathieu Chouinard G

Two very solid players. Four who amounted to essentially nothing.

1997
10 Vancouver Brad Ference D
11 Mtl. Canadiens Jason Ward R
12 Ottawa Marian Hossa R
13 Chicago Daniel Cleary L
14 Edmonton Michel Riesen R
15 Los Angeles Matt Zultek L

One star of roughly Kessel's level (though I think Kessel can end up better than Hossa), three depth players, 2 which made no impact.

1996
10 New Jersey Lance Ward D
11 Phoenix Dan Focht D
12 Vancouver Josh Holden C
13 Calgary Derek Morris D
14 St. Louis Marty Reasoner C
15 Philadelphia Dainius Zubrus C

Two solid players, two depth guys and three who made no impact. (Lance Ward is a bit of a strange case, but never amounted to anything for the Devils and went back into the draft)

1995
10 Florida Radek Dvorak R
11 Dallas Jarome Iginla R
12 San Jose Teemu Riihijarvi R
13 Hartford Jean-Sebastien Giguere G
14 Buffalo Jay McKee D
15 Toronto Jeff Ware D

We'll be extremely happy if Kessel ends up like Iginla, so let's rate him a level higher. Iginla is tricky. I'll for now put him at Kessel's level. He has accomplished more obviously, but I think Kessel can end up a more consistent and long term star. Two solid players, and two who never amounted to much.

So looking at these 60 picks across 10 years, the results:
  • Players greater than Phil Kessel: 1 (1.67%)
  • Players of about equal level: 3 (5%)
  • Impact players: 12 (20%)
  • Everyday NHLers: 8 (13.33%)
  • Depth Players: 8 (13.33%)
  • No lasting NHL impact: 28 (46.67%)

As a note I found the difference between impact and everyday NHLers a tad tricky, so was fairly generous calling someone an impact player. Those would be: Stafford, Radulov, Brown, Seabrook, Kostitsyn, Semin, Hamhuis, Hemsky, Antropov, Tanguay, Morris, Dvorak.

So what does that tell us? Going by historical statistics, chances with one of those picks:
  • The chance of us even drafting an NHL player with one of those picks would be about 50%
  • The chance of us drafting a player who will be a regular is about 40%.
  • The chance of an impact player (a rather loose term) is about 26.67%.
  • The chance of getting a Kessel or better would be about 6.67%.
  • If we'd pick twice, the chance of not ending up with an impact player (again, a fairly loose term) would be 54%.
  • Picking twice, the chances at a Kessel or better would be 13%.

Just to put matters into perspective, the first rounders we just traded have a statistical chance of more than 50% to not yield an impact player for us some time down the line. The chance of getting anyone at Kessel's level or better in this picking range with these two picks would be only 13%. Brian Burke obviously rolls the dice with this trade, but I like the odds...

Now if people could for once use proper arguments aside from 'MLSE wants the mediocrity of 1-2 rounds of playoffs' or 'We sold the farm' or 'We just sacrificed our future', please step forward. So far all I have read is the horribly argumented drivel of the Howard Bergers of this world with no logical backing. Idiocy which argues that trading for a 21 year old sniper is giving up the future. As if Kessel is a veteran and those picks would surely end up to be better for us 5 years down the line. Not to mention that the 2011 draft is expected to be weakest in about 2 decades...

Be worried about the trade and the minor chance that those picks would turn into a superstar? Fine, I can see your point. But if you want to argue that Brian Burke rushed, sold the farm and gave up our future and set back the rebuild by trading for Phil Kessel, come with solid arguments to refute the logic which has been put out by a number of posters. Rather than spewing rethorical cheapshots, snide comments while turtling like a Steve Webb for any hard and solid logic you apparently have no answer to.

PS To Mess, regarding my injury stats: I was indeed a bit sleepy and obviously forgot his current injury. Though I so far haven't seen indications why it should be chronic.


Last edited by DutchLeafsfan: 09-22-2009 at 06:38 AM.
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Old
09-22-2009, 06:46 AM
  #24
Nazem Gretzky
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Squiffy View Post
Thanks, kinda took most of the summer off from here, gearing back up for the season. There's still bonus interwebz points out there for anyone who tells me why I put the bag on my Avy's head on January 10th, 2008, without googling it.
Is that the date where Ponikarovsky could have sealed the deal against the canes with an empty net goal, but refused to shoot it when he had the chance, then got stripped of the puck, the hurricanes tie the game, and then win it in overtime?

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09-22-2009, 07:25 AM
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Is that the date where Ponikarovsky could have sealed the deal against the canes with an empty net goal, but refused to shoot it when he had the chance, then got stripped of the puck, the hurricanes tie the game, and then win it in overtime?
No, they were on a west-coast road trip that week. I remember working afternoons and watching those atrocious games at work. They looked like the worst team to ever play hockey on that road trip. Funny that I remember that.

No idea what the significance of Jan 10th is though, or if the Leafs even played that day.

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