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All-Time Draft #12, Part V

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Old
11-03-2009, 03:56 PM
  #276
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Regina selects Eric Staal.

Sorry for using up our entire deadline.
A playoff warrior that could do absolutely anything. The guy was the driving force behind the Hurricanes cup run. I watched him play, and he was like a man possessed, doing everything he could to help his team win, and he had a 4th in Hart voting. Quite happy to have him for our 4th line.

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11-03-2009, 04:00 PM
  #277
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A playoff warrior that could do absolutely anything. The guy was the driving force behind the Hurricanes cup run. I watched him play, and he was like a man possessed, doing everything he could to help his team win, and he had a 4th in Hart voting. Quite happy to have him for our 4th line.
Staal is a hard guy to pin in the ATD. Inconsistent regular season production, A+ playoff record. I guess 4th line is as good a place as any, but if he ever gets a history of playing wing he could slot in anywhere in a team's lineup.

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11-03-2009, 04:00 PM
  #278
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Now the question becomes: Can I sell him as a 2nd liner?
One of the best 64 offensive LWs ever? Yes, I will buy it.

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False. You left off both their last seasons - where they played 18 & 23 games, respectively - and that was indeed fair. Discarding one extra season for Vernon's sake distorts the numbers greatly in his favor.
Absolutely not. It's only fair in this comparison because Hextall was already 3 years removed from having an NHL job when he was 37, as old as Vernon was in that season. What would Hextall have done at 37? We don't know, because he was no longer an NHL goaltender. Vernon was, and this is a plus, not a minus.

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Oh c'mon, giving up more PPs doesn't mean facing more tough shots. Giving up more PPs on an elite PKing team with elite defensemen and defensive forwards won't make you face more quality shots than giving up less PPs on early 90's Senators or a similar abomination.
Generally, they both played on good to great teams throughout their careers. I'm not prepared to say that one guy who faced 300 PPs might have actually had an easier time than a guy who faced 200 all due to differing shot quality.

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Doesn't explain the lack of PP analysis for playoffs.
I accounted for that as best as I could.

At hockey-reference.com in each season's summary you can see the number of PPs each team faced. This is all nice and even because every team played the same number of games. In the playoffs this is not the case. To properly determine who faced the most PPs you would need to divide each team's results by their games and I really don't have the time to do this for two goalies who aren't mine. I simply assumed that their teams would take penalties in the playoffs at roughly the same rate they did in the regular season. Hence why I said, when discussing their playoff seasons, "One of these years was with a "difficult" team (1987) for Hextall, and two of them were "difficult" for Vernon (1986 and 1989)"

I didn't have an agenda of any sort, nor did I with Guerin and Dineen. It's getting tiring dealing with your accusations of me presenting data for the purpose of being misleading.

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Old
11-03-2009, 04:01 PM
  #279
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Originally Posted by Mr Bugg View Post
Staal is a hard guy to pin in the ATD. Inconsistent regular season production, A+ playoff record. I guess 4th line is as good a place as any, but if he ever gets a history of playing wing he could slot in anywhere in a team's lineup.
Consistently 82 games, 30-45 goals, 35-55 assists, and 70-100 points. I'll take that!

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11-03-2009, 04:18 PM
  #280
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
I didn't have an agenda of any sort, nor did I with Guerin and Dineen. It's getting tiring dealing with your accusations of me presenting data for the purpose of being misleading.
It's tiresome exposing them. Though it sort of baffles me why you defend Vernon in face of overwhelming statistical evidence of his inferiority - some of which you provided yourself - when you have no stake in the argument.

Enough of that... how do you guys plan to use Staal? Center or wing? A better selection than Gagne, regardless.

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11-03-2009, 04:20 PM
  #281
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Rzeznik takes another one of the BGAs - John Ross Roach.

I'll PM Nalyd.

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11-03-2009, 04:22 PM
  #282
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Originally Posted by MadArcand View Post
It's tiresome exposing them. Though it sort of baffles me why you defend Vernon in face of overwhelming statistical evidence of his inferiority - some of which you provided yourself - when you have no stake in the argument.
You haven't exposed anything! I didn't do it to defend Vernon, I did it for my own purposes as much as yours - to see who outperformed whom, and I drew my conclusion from it. I had no agenda to "prove" Vernon was better.

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Enough of that... how do you guys plan to use Staal? Center or wing? A better selection than Gagne, regardless.
We're tossing around the idea of having him on the wing but he will most likely be a center. I think his game would translate well to the wing, but how much experience there does he have?

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11-03-2009, 04:35 PM
  #283
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
You haven't exposed anything! I didn't do it to defend Vernon, I did it for my own purposes as much as yours - to see who outperformed whom, and I drew my conclusion from it. I had no agenda to "prove" Vernon was better.
Mhm. I dunno, I just find disregarding a horrible season by Vernon by virtue of him being older than Hextall was when he retired a bit... well, it skews numbers, like it or not. It's good to give Vernon credit for lasting longer - but using it as excuse to significantly improve his numbers just ain't right. Of course, I don't think you did intend to do that (there'd just be no point).

I'd also draw a completely different conclusion from your analysis than you did - but I guess that's matter of interpretation, and matter of how much one value's things like the PPs comparison (frankly, I don't give it half as much weight as you apparently do).

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We're tossing around the idea of having him on the wing but he will most likely be a center. I think his game would translate well to the wing, but how much experience there does he have?
Limited. He has a very good skillset for a winger and with his shooting mentality he'd likely be good there, but with the lack of significant experience at the position, it'd be guesswork. Getting him a playmaking winger would likely be the best course.


Anyone want to take a 1-name list? Don't think we'll reach my pick anytime soon.

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11-03-2009, 04:35 PM
  #284
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
You haven't exposed anything! I didn't do it to defend Vernon, I did it for my own purposes as much as yours - to see who outperformed whom, and I drew my conclusion from it. I had no agenda to "prove" Vernon was better.



We're tossing around the idea of having him on the wing but he will most likely be a center. I think his game would translate well to the wing, but how much experience there does he have?
Well, if we all take a couple months off and come back to this draft in March I think he'll have had some experience...

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Old
11-03-2009, 04:46 PM
  #285
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I have Nalyd's list. Portland selects C Charlie Burns

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11-03-2009, 04:56 PM
  #286
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Regarding the Hextall vs Vernon comparison, any difference in PP shots faced in Vernon's advantage is likely offset or more than offset by Hextall's edge in playing the puck and preventing shots. The best analysis I've seen shows that top puckhandling goalies prevent about a shot per game on average, which is worth about 3-4 points per game in save percentage terms.

On the other hand, Hextall took more penalties, which hurts his team. I'm not sure how many put them down a man, but certainly more than Vernon took. It's not my team, so I'm not going to take the time to check the numbers.

Overall, Vernon's save percentage was below league average over his career. While I'm not a huge Hextall fan, I'm pretty sure he was better than Vernon.

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11-03-2009, 04:58 PM
  #287
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Originally Posted by MadArcand View Post
Mhm. I dunno, I just find disregarding a horrible season by Vernon by virtue of him being older than Hextall was when he retired a bit... well, it skews numbers, like it or not. It's good to give Vernon credit for lasting longer - but using it as excuse to significantly improve his numbers just ain't right. Of course, I don't think you did intend to do that (there'd just be no point).
Impartiality was the goal. You kept giving me the impression that you do think I'm manipulating.

Quote:
I'd also draw a completely different conclusion from your analysis than you did - but I guess that's matter of interpretation, and matter of how much one value's things like the PPs comparison (frankly, I don't give it half as much weight as you apparently do).
One needs to only look at the difference between a goalie's sv% at even strength and vs. a PP to see that it makes a big difference.

For example, in the 2007 season, Luongo had a better sv% than Brodeur at even strength and against the PP, but because he faced so many more PPs there was just so much opportunity for it to "drag" his overall sv% down past Brodeur's, and it did.

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Limited. He has a very good skillset for a winger and with his shooting mentality he'd likely be good there, but with the lack of significant experience at the position, it'd be guesswork. Getting him a playmaking winger would likely be the best course.
I kinda thought he would make a good winger too.

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Anyone want to take a 1-name list? Don't think we'll reach my pick anytime soon.
I can take it.

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Old
11-03-2009, 05:08 PM
  #288
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Originally Posted by overpass View Post
Regarding the Hextall vs Vernon comparison, any difference in PP shots faced in Vernon's advantage is likely offset or more than offset by Hextall's edge in playing the puck and preventing shots. The best analysis I've seen shows that top puckhandling goalies prevent about a shot per game on average, which is worth about 3-4 points per game in save percentage terms.

On the other hand, Hextall took more penalties, which hurts his team. I'm not sure how many put them down a man, but certainly more than Vernon took. It's not my team, so I'm not going to take the time to check the numbers.

Overall, Vernon's save percentage was below league average over his career. While I'm not a huge Hextall fan, I'm pretty sure he was better than Vernon.
Vernon was more reliable and less injury prone than Hextall. That probably made him a more valuable starter in real life. But when Hextall was healthy and had his game together, was the better goaltender. That might make him translate into being the better backup in this thing.


Last edited by TheDevilMadeMe: 11-03-2009 at 05:14 PM.
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Old
11-03-2009, 05:18 PM
  #289
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Impartiality was the goal. You kept giving me the impression that you do think I'm manipulating.
Nah didn't mean to do that, sorry. Just defending my backup. Judging by how much my goalies are hated, I should probably get a #3 too. Tho he'd end up hated as well I guess.

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I can take it.
No you can't - clean up your PMs.

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Old
11-03-2009, 05:19 PM
  #290
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...try now.

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11-03-2009, 05:25 PM
  #291
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...try now.
Can I send you my list as well? (I'm gone until around 11:00pm pacific)

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11-03-2009, 05:25 PM
  #292
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Allright list sent to seventies. Time to crash.

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Old
11-03-2009, 05:30 PM
  #293
seventieslord
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Can I send you my list as well? (I'm gone until around 11:00pm pacific)
Yep, go for it. I've got Mac's list.

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Old
11-03-2009, 05:34 PM
  #294
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Yep, go for it. I've got Mac's list.
Sent.

If the players on the list aren't available, please just skip my pick.

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Old
11-03-2009, 05:35 PM
  #295
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Why not? Rather take 3 smokin' years out of 4.1 over someone who played 15 at notch or three lower:

D Dion Phaneuf

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11-03-2009, 05:39 PM
  #296
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Forget the BPA; I will be extremely disappointed if shawnmullin does not use pick 666 to take a certain someone.

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11-03-2009, 05:40 PM
  #297
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Why not? Rather take 3 smokin' years out of 4.1 over someone who played 15 at notch or three lower:

D Dion Phaneuf
More like 1 smoking year. And a couple of decent ones.

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Old
11-03-2009, 05:53 PM
  #298
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lol @ 20g, 29a and 17g 33a in his first two years being "decent", a pretty legit physical presence, and no injuries at pick 660.

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11-03-2009, 05:59 PM
  #299
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lol @ 20g, 29a and 17g 33a in his first two years being "decent", a pretty legit physical presence, and no injuries at pick 660.
It's not the numbers so much as the ability. I don't think he's good enough defensively to be a regular in the ATD, even on a bottom pairing. #7? Yeah, I could go with that.

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11-03-2009, 06:01 PM
  #300
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It's not the numbers so much as the ability. I don't think he's good enough defensively to be a regular in the ATD, even on a bottom pairing. #7? Yeah, I could go with that.
I guess he could be a #7. Though personally, I think there are quite a few contempararies who could be better choices.

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