HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > NHL Western Conference > Pacific Division > Edmonton Oilers
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
Notices

JDD our starter in 3 years??? An objective analysis...(very long)

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools
Old
04-12-2004, 04:16 PM
  #1
Boondock Saint
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,659
vCash: 500
JDD our starter in 3 years??? An objective analysis...(very long)

I've seen a lot of posters here pencil JDD in as our starter in 3 years, but he has a long ways to go just to get a sniff of life in the NHL just like every other junior goalie...

So, being drafted in 2002, JDD has been slated by some to be our starter in his fifth season after being drafted, or 2006.

I'll look at all goalies previously selected in the first round over the past couple of years and look at where they were coming into their fourth season after being drafted.

All stats only include the four seasons following each goalies draft year.

For the benefit of the analysis, I will consider JDD to be a 1st rounder, even though he was taken 32nd overall. He was, by all accounts, expected to go in the first round. So, techinically, all the goalies I'm looking at were taken higher than JDD.

I will start four years before this season, at the draft of 1999.



1999


#6 - Brian Finley

NHLGP - 1
AHLGP - 22

Played three more years of junior after being drafted, was injured for a year, spent a year between the ECHL and the AHL. This year, four years after being drafted, he spent starting in the AHL and put up some solid numbers. Looks like he might be ready to make the jump.


#22 - Maxime Ouellet

NHLGP - 2
AHLGP - 97

Has spent the majority of the past 3 seasons in the AHL. This year, four years after being drafted, he spent putting up very solid numbers in the AHL and looks ready to move up onto the Capitals big squad.


#27 - Ari Ahonen

NHLGP - 0
AHLGP - 74

After coming over from Finland, Ahonen has put up decent numbers on a very bad River Rats squad. 4 years after being drafted, he has captured the starting job in Albany, partly due to Clemmonsson being in New Jersey for long stretches of the year.



1998


#14 - Patrick DesRochers

NHLGP - 5
AHLGP - 136

Was given the starting role in Springfield the year after being drafted, but has shown little improvement over the past 5 years. 4 years after his draft, Patrick had a couple NHL games under his belt with very poor results. He spent the season bouncing between Phoenix and Springfield before being shipped off to Carolina.


#15 - Mathieu Chouinard

NHLGP - 0
AHLGP - 53*(28 in IHL)

Mathieu played out his junior career and re-entered the draft, to be selected by Ottawa again, this time in the second round. 4 years after being drafted, he had spent two seasons as a back-up in pro hockey, and spent his fourth season battling injuries and in the ECHL.



1997


#4 - Roberto Luongo

NHLGP - 71
AHLGP - 29

Roberto spent time with both the Islanders and Panthers in a back-up role. Four years after being drafted, Roberto took over the starting role in Florida and has been excellent ever since.


#21 - Mika Noronen

NHLGP - 2
AHLGP - 101

In the four years after being drafted, Noronen spent two more years with Tappara in the Finnish Elite League and two years with the Rochester Americans. He spent the next season between Buffalo and Rochester. Still has not taken over the #1 role in Buffalo.


#24 - J-F Damphousse

NHLGP - 0
AHLGP - 82

Damphousse spent time in the AHL and ECHL after leaving juniors. Four years after being drafted, he still hadn't seen the NHL. He spent a few games with the Devils the next year, but has been bouncing around the AHL ever since.



1996


#23 - Craig Hillier (*snicker)

NHLGP - 0
AHLGP - 47

I don't think this one even needs an explanation. Has spent his pro career playing for teams such as the Johnstown Chiefs, Charlotte Checkers, Toledo Storm, Wheeling Nailers, Geleen Smoke Eaters, Corpus Christi Rayz and the Columbus Stars just to name a few.



1995


#13 - J-S Giguerre

NHLGP - 23
AHLGP - 70

In the four years after being drafted, J-S spent parts of two seasons in the NHL with unimpressive results. The next couple years he spent between a couple AHL and NHL teams before grabbing the starting role in Anaheim, 6 years after being drafted.


#16 - Marty Biron

NHLGP - 9
AHLGP - 93

In the four years after his draft, Marty spent time in the ECHL, AHL and NHL. His next two seasons, he spent the majority of his time in Buffalo backing up the Dominator. He claimed the starting role in 2001, 6 years after being drafted.


#22 - Brian Boucher

NHLGP - 0
AHLGP - 70

After being drafted, Boucher spent the next four years finishing his junior career and in the AHL. The next couple years he spent as the backup in Philly, playing quite a few games. He has since moved to Phoenix and despite some good stretches, has never been able to hold on the starting role for a full year.


#25 - Marc Denis

NHLGP - 5
AHLGP - 99

In the four years following his draft, Denis spent the majority of his time in Hershey, with a few short tenures in Colorado. The next year, he spent backing up Roy, before being moved to Columbus, where he didn't start playing a lot of games until two years later, 7 years after being drafted.



1994


#7 - Storr

NHLGP - 32
AHLGP - 103*(IHL)

In his four seasons after being drafted, Jaime played parts of each with the Kings. He spent the rest of his time in the OHL and the NHL. The next year, his fifth after being drafted, a backup in LA. Has never fulfilled his potential and claim a starting role with an NHL club.


#16 - Eric Fichaud

NHLGP - 75
AHLGP - 35

Eric spent the four seasons after his draft, mostly as a backup with the NY Islanders. He has since spent his career bouncing around various NHL and minor league teams.


#21 - Evgeni Ryabchikov

NHLGP - 0
AHLGP - 16

Evgeni spent the year immediately following his draft year in the AHL. He spent the following three seasons in the ECHL and various other minor leagues before returning to Russia.


#26 - Dan Cloutier

NHLGP - 12
AHLGP - 84

Dan spent two more years in junior after being drafted. He spent his next year in the AHL, and the next between the Rangers and the AHL. In his fifth season after the draft, he spent the entire year backing up Richter for the Rangers. He spent the next couple seasons on a couple different NHL rosters before taking over the starting role in Vancouver.




I looked at 17 goalies, all of whom were selected higher than JDD. 5 of the goalies are holding starting roles with their teams, and another 3 are playing as back-ups.

That's 8 goalies out of 17 that are in the NHL, although all three 1999 draftees are still showing some promise.

Of the 5 starters, only 1 is starting for the team that drafted him.

So, to those that feel that JDD will be starting in 2006, it looks very much to be a long-shot. If JDD ever emerges as an NHL goalie, I would assume it to be closer to 2008.


Last edited by Boondock Saint: 04-12-2004 at 07:18 PM. Reason: more typos
Boondock Saint is offline  
Old
04-12-2004, 05:52 PM
  #2
Big T
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: LLoydminster, AB
Posts: 338
vCash: 500
Hard to argue with this logic.

It looks like Lowe will have to find someone else eventually to play after Conks / Jussi or hope one of them turns into Mikka. If I had to bet on one it would be Jussi, and not just because he is a Finn. :lol

T

Big T is offline  
Old
04-12-2004, 05:58 PM
  #3
The Rage
Registered User
 
The Rage's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Stamford Bridge
Country: Canada
Posts: 8,792
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Big T
Hard to argue with this logic.

It looks like Lowe will have to find someone else eventually to play after Conks / Jussi or hope one of them turns into Mikka. If I had to bet on one it would be Jussi, and not just because he is a Finn. :lol

T
If we can trade our second first rounder for Garon, I say go for it.

The Rage is offline  
Old
04-12-2004, 06:01 PM
  #4
Boondock Saint
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,659
vCash: 500
I think our best bet would be finding a goalie buried in someone else's farm system.

I find Ahonen intriguing. He's put up some average numbers, but it has been on a poor Albany River Rats squad. Not to mention that he was passed over by in the big club in favor of Clemmonsson.

Brodeur won't be leaving NJ anytime soon, so we might be able to pry him out of there, too.

Even I didn't think I would find that out of the 17 goalies picked in the first round from '94-'99, only 1 (Biron) ended up starting for the team that drafted him.

Boondock Saint is offline  
Old
04-12-2004, 06:54 PM
  #5
Hemsky01
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2003
Location: Saskatoon
Posts: 255
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boondock Saint

Even I didn't think I would find that out of the 17 goalies picked in the first round from '94-'99, only 1 (Biron) ended up starting for the team that drafted him.
So much for having to draft a goalie in the first Round.

Hemsky01 is offline  
Old
04-12-2004, 07:00 PM
  #6
looooob
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 1,886
vCash: 500
that was an interesting analysis. I"m surprised it takes THAT long for goalies to arrive, but the proof appears to be in the pudding....reminds me to have more patience in Brett Krahn (especially seeing as Giguere is on the list)

anyhoo who knows maybe Conklin or Markkanen buy you guys those 4 years, if not...I would think that now is a good time to be plucking a goalie from someone else, as alot of teams are still carrying more goalies in their organizations then they have room for IMO

looooob is offline  
Old
04-12-2004, 07:20 PM
  #7
Lowetide
Registered User
 
Lowetide's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Country: Canada
Posts: 13,281
vCash: 500
It takes awhile no doubt, and that's if they're handled well. The NYR's handling of Blackburn was ridiculous, hopefully he can turn it around. Even guys like DiPietro and Fleury, who are well clear of the pack, take awhile to adjust.

imo this draft is so deep the Oilers might be able to wait until the 2nd round to get their guy. I wouldn't be that upset if they draft Schwarz, Montoya or Dubnyk in the first round, but there's some names for the 2nd round (Ellis, Schneider, Brown, Shantz) that should be available when the Oilers pick there too.

Lowetide is offline  
Old
04-12-2004, 07:31 PM
  #8
YKOil
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 1,232
vCash: 500
I have always...

... admired organizations that are draft heavy in goaltenders. New Jersey, Dallas, Buffalo, Ottawa, etc - they ALWAYS seem to have a new guy ready to move up.

The Oilers, however, always rely on hope - hope that Salo turns out, hope that Ty and Jussi can make it work, hope that we can trade for someone's 'unknown' tender and get the next Kiprusoff, etc.

That is NOT the way to run an organization (imo).

Look, if Schwarz or Montoya is available at #14 (at least one should be gone but it is hard to say both will be there) the Oilers SHOULD make that call. You can NEVER have enough solid goaltending depth available.


YKOil

YKOil is offline  
Old
04-12-2004, 07:40 PM
  #9
MrMackey
Registered User
 
MrMackey's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: cgy
Country: Canada
Posts: 3,061
vCash: 500
I think a lot of this depends on what the situation is in goal for the team that's drafted the goaltender. Obviously a guy like Aebisher is going to take longer behind Roy, and so on.

Raycroft made it in 5 years after he was drafted (5th round in 1998) and Lalime played 39 games for Pittsburgh 3 years after he was drafted (6th round in 1993).

If DesLauriers lights it up in the AHL next year and Jussi/Conklin struggle as a season-long tandem... then I could see JDD coming in sooner rahter than later.

But to your point, I wouldn't bet the farm on either JDD being our saviour in net or Conks/Jussi being a long term solution.

MrMackey is offline  
Old
04-12-2004, 07:49 PM
  #10
Boondock Saint
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,659
vCash: 500
I agree with what's being said here, and if the Oilers really like either Schwarz or Montoya and he's there at 14th, then I would take him.

Schwarz is young, very quick with great reflexes.

Montoya, on the other hand, is more than a year older, very strong positionally and looks to be closer to the NHL than Schwarz.

But, I don't think anyone on this board (besides Guy from talking to the Oiler scouts) knows enough about either of these guys to make a call on who is the better option.

However, if either Alvaro or Marek are selected, I hope the Oilers leave them where they're at, Montoya in the NCAA and Schwarz in Europe for another year or two.

Boondock Saint is offline  
Old
04-12-2004, 07:59 PM
  #11
YKOil
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 1,232
vCash: 500
If all...

...Lowe did next year was:

a. get a tender like Garon for a reasonable price (I am thinking Rita and something else pretty good), and
b. draft Schwarz or Montoya

I would consider it a great GM year from him as he would have put this organization well on the road towards having proper, year-to-year, goaltending depth.

Lets face it - it took:

1. the emergence of Bergeron, and
2. the miracle rebirth of Ulanov, and
3. the trade for Woytwika

Just to get this organizatiuon to even on the defensive depth issue.

That is nuts. Lowe got luckier than he should have and I don't want to hope that lightning strikes twice on the goalie front as well.


YKOil

YKOil is offline  
Old
04-12-2004, 08:00 PM
  #12
Asiaoil
Registered User
 
Asiaoil's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2002
Country: Thailand
Posts: 5,259
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Rage
If we can trade our second first rounder for Garon, I say go for it.
You know that if Montreal trades Garon they will need a backup. So maybe we give them Conklin (who is a fine backup) plus a little something else to make up the difference. Say a decent second tier forward prospect like Winchester or Cullen. Of course this assumes the Oilers believe that Garon will better than Conks in the near future - because right now the two guys are about equal. I’m really not sure about Conklin. If he had followed up the Dallas win at the end of the year with a strong showing against Vancouver – then I would have been willing to go with him and Jussi. But he dropped the ball in a must-win situation and that’s troubling.

JDD will be brought along quickly if he shows potential in Toronto - no more than 2 years with the RR before being given a solid shot at the backup job in Edmonton. Ready or not the org needs him in Edmonton ASAP.

But whatever happens with JDD – we should still use one of our 1st round picks on a goalie because we have zero depth behind him. If Schwarz or Montoya are still available at #14 then you certainly draft the goalie. If we move up to draft a potential sniper (I doubt anyone fitting that description will be available at #14) then we have to hope that Dubnyk is still there in the late first round for the Philly pick.

Goaltending is a problem on this team but if we:

1 – acquired Garon to improve our goaltending on the big club
2 – sign JDD and assign him starter minutes in Toronto, and
3 – draft any of Schwarz, Montoya or Dubnyk

We will have done a lot to improve our depth in goal for next year and beyond.

Asiaoil is offline  
Old
04-12-2004, 08:10 PM
  #13
MrMackey
Registered User
 
MrMackey's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: cgy
Country: Canada
Posts: 3,061
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by YKOil
... admired organizations that are draft heavy in goaltenders. New Jersey, Dallas, Buffalo, Ottawa, etc - they ALWAYS seem to have a new guy ready to move up.

The Oilers, however, always rely on hope - hope that Salo turns out, hope that Ty and Jussi can make it work, hope that we can trade for someone's 'unknown' tender and get the next Kiprusoff, etc.

That is NOT the way to run an organization (imo).

Look, if Schwarz or Montoya is available at #14 (at least one should be gone but it is hard to say both will be there) the Oilers SHOULD make that call. You can NEVER have enough solid goaltending depth available.
I agree that the Oilers should have a better stable of young goalies in their system, but I don't know that using up high draft picks to do that is the best strategy, because in the end it always seems to be a bit of a crapshoot. That piece that Sportsnet did last week about the Flames swapping picks with NJ to move up in the draft so they could take Trevor Kidd speaks to that (the Devils used their pick to get Brodeur).

There are lots of very good goalies around the league that can be had for cheap... however there are very few elite goalies and not a ton of them have even been first round picks.

I say save the first round picks for skaters (unless there's a blue-chipper to the level of M.A. Fleury OR a goalie is the best player available) and use later round picks to grab some goaltenders.


Last edited by MrMackey: 04-12-2004 at 08:14 PM.
MrMackey is offline  
Old
04-12-2004, 09:40 PM
  #14
Behind Enemy Lines
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Calgary, Alberta
Posts: 3,768
vCash: 500
Nice post Bookdock. Interesting analysis. I think goaltender's have always been later to develop. Back in Original Six days, tenders like Glenn Hall didn't get a sniff until mid to late 20's. I attribute this to the nature of the position (only 1 plays) and importance of the position itself (last line of defense).

When I look at many of the goalies you have posted, I see a strong pattern in that the barrier to NHL status has been a stellar, entrenched #1 goalie. Names such as Hasek, Brodeur, Roy, Richter, Kolzig, Burke, and even Vokun.

For many of these youngsters, the development process is one of patience playing big minutes on the farm rather than back-up behind big club #1 goalies who play 60-70 games. There are definitely several busts in your list but again by nature of the 'tender's individual position, it is less likely any NHL team will entrust its fate to a very young, inexperienced goalie. Some teams have rolled the dice on players like Dryden, Barrasso, Roy, and Fuhr. But most likely teams drafting goalies do so with the longterm in mind.

The Oiler cupboard is bare and must be replenished. Imo their first need is to upgrade their NHL goaltending situation. I like Jussi and Conklin as backups but don't feel they can provide the 'tending required to go deep into the playoffs. Especially when our first objective remains simply to make the playoffs. I hope we target and acquire by trade a prospective number one goalie.

As to JDD, he is gaining wonderful experience in the Q playoffs and learning how to win big games. Given the Oiler's weakness in net, I can see one full year in Toronto and up to the big club in 2 or 3 years. He looks like our next #1 tender but we need to add another quality young goalie in this draft. I hope it will be Dubnyk.

Behind Enemy Lines is offline  
Old
04-12-2004, 10:36 PM
  #15
Matts
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 2,911
vCash: 500
All I'll say

is that I don't expect to see him in Edmonton until he's played two full seasons in the A and I don't expect him to do anymore more than backup next year in TO.

So that would be '07 before he's in Edmonton but if he spends three years in the A and the last two are starting, then yes he could be our starter in '08

Then you start to wonder how many of the guys we have right now will play on a PLAYOFF team with JDD

Matts is offline  
Old
04-13-2004, 12:54 AM
  #16
thome_26
HFBoards Sponsor
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Edmonton
Country: Canada
Posts: 8,862
vCash: 500
Send a message via ICQ to thome_26
I agree 110% with Mackey. Goalies - outside of the Lehtonen's and Fleury's are crap-shoots. I say pick a couple goalies in the mid rounds - and save the early picks for the more predictable skaters (that can always be used to trade for goalies).

thome_26 is offline  
Old
04-13-2004, 02:34 AM
  #17
Asiaoil
Registered User
 
Asiaoil's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2002
Country: Thailand
Posts: 5,259
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by thome_26
I agree 110% with Mackey. Goalies - outside of the Lehtonen's and Fleury's are crap-shoots. I say pick a couple goalies in the mid rounds - and save the early picks for the more predictable skaters (that can always be used to trade for goalies).
....but looking at who may be available at #14 - Schwartz or Montoya may well be BPA unless Picard is still there (unlikely given his playoff performance to date). Do we really need another 3rd line winger or #4 dman which is what you will probably get at this draft position? Unless we move up to grab a sniper (a good idea) or Picard is available (I like that too) why not roll the dice on an high-end goalie prospect for a change?

But beyond that we need to get the goalie pipeline set up - JDD is graduating from junior and we need another high-end prospect to take his slot. So at either #14 or #25 - we should seriously consider taking a netminder.

Asiaoil is offline  
Old
04-13-2004, 04:03 AM
  #18
Mowzie
Asst. Dishwasher
 
Mowzie's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Lebanon, Alberta
Country: Lebanon
Posts: 8,336
vCash: 500
I agree, alot of ppl say trade for Biron etc etc. others say draft Montoya or Shwartz, but I think we've gotta do both. We've got a horendous cast of goaltenders right now. and what good is our entourage of forward and defense prospects if we arent going to have a #1 goalie for 3 more years. I think we need a stop-gap for the time being who can play alot of minutes, and trade one of Conks or Jussi.

Then we still have to draft a tender to maintain that we are strong for years to come. Ive got no problem with stressing out in 4 years when Montoya and JDD are both ready and I've gotta decide who I think should be #1.

Mowzie is offline  
Old
04-13-2004, 07:52 AM
  #19
igor*
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Posts: 3,276
vCash: 500
Excellent post, Boondock Really puts things in perspective.

When you see it like this, how long it takes for goalies to develop ... makes a guy wonder if its really worth using a first rounder on one.

With the big signing bonuses that 1st rounders command ... by the time that most of them are bonfide #1 goalies in the NHL they have arbs rights and aren't too far from UFA age ... just doesn't seem worth it to me.

igor* is offline  
Old
04-13-2004, 08:47 AM
  #20
oil slick
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 7,369
vCash: 500
I also hope that the Oil don't drop a first rounder on a goalie (maybe the Philly one, but if we drop 14th on one, I think we'll have made a mistake).

From our own boards, someone compiled a list of the top 20 starters in the league.

http://www.hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=70219

Stats that are interesting:

Average Draft Position: 102.368
Teams eligible to draft: 30
Rounds before ADP: 3.4

IMO, you are far, far better off drafting skaters and then trading for a goaltender than you are drafting them... not only with the crap shot about which goalie will succeed, but also the length of time it takes to develope a goalie.

oil slick is offline  
Old
04-13-2004, 10:42 AM
  #21
Blue Bullet
Registered User
 
Blue Bullet's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Bon Accord, AB
Posts: 795
vCash: 500
One thing nobody seems to mention is that their are only two positions for goalie on an NHL team. If a forward or d-man do not live up to their potential they can still make the NHL at bottom pairing d-man or 4th line players. However with goalies when this happen they end up in the AHL.

Also for d-men to make their team full time in 4 yrs, that can mean they are only playing 10-15 minutes a night learning the position. You sort of can't do that with goalies. Could you imagine a goalie playing one periood a night for development. Therefore, the only way to devlop them is to have they play a lot of minutes in the minors until their ready for the backup role and build them up for the starter position.

Maybe when people are doing statisitical analyais they should take number of available positions into play. Therefore not getting a starting goalie from the middle of the 1st round and saying that was a bad pick is like selecting a forward at the same pick who turns into a checking line center and saying that was a bad pick because he doesn't get 60 points a season. Goalies just don't have any room for failure.

Blue Bullet is offline  
Old
04-13-2004, 10:44 AM
  #22
Bohologo
Registered User
 
Bohologo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Tokyo
Country: Japan
Posts: 1,230
vCash: 500
This is the kind of post that makes this board so good. Boondock has an opinion that's well-supported by facts and thoughtful analysis; Boondock's framework sets a high standard for prospect evaluation. Given the time that a good goalie needs to develop, perhaps Deslauriers should be given ample time to find his NHL game. I guess someone like Fuhr was an exception, given his immediate jump into the bigs.

Bohologo is offline  
Old
04-13-2004, 11:14 AM
  #23
speeds
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: St.Albert
Posts: 6,823
vCash: 500
great post boondock, helps to supports the theory that it's probably not too wise to be picking a goalie unless you see the guy as simply "too good to pass up".

That might be the case this year at any, and every, of the first 3 Oilers picks this year, so it's not easy to guess where they'd take a goalie (it's hard to imagine they'd take goalies with their first 3 picks even if all 3 are their BPA at that particular pick, though not inconceivable I suppose).


With the recent opt-in status of NCAA guys being changed, to let guys like Stafford, Thalen, O'Neil, etc opt in, I'm guessing that EDM won't take a goalie at 14. One wouldn't think Montoay or Schwartz would slip until the PHI pick, but then again who thought Deslauriers would slide to 31 overall?

In general, I'm not a big believer that having a bunch of young goalies in the pipeline should be the goal in drafting. I'd be happy with letting other teams spend the developmental time and draft picks on goalies, and then look for a decent guy to trade for at such a time where teams have waiver issues, or have 3 guys they don't want to carry at once. Having said that I don't think you should pass on a "no-brainer" selection just because he happens to be a goalie.

speeds is offline  
Old
04-13-2004, 11:53 AM
  #24
MrMackey
Registered User
 
MrMackey's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: cgy
Country: Canada
Posts: 3,061
vCash: 500
I was just looking at the '94 draft year, since it was the first year in Boondock's analysis. I remember how hot of a commodity Storr was at the time... certainly a sure-fire starter and he even played in five games in the '94 season. Fichaud was another ultra-hot prospect and, as Boondock pointed out, Ryabchikov and Cloutier also went in the first round.

But what I thought was interesting is who didn't go in the first round that year:

Round 2:
Jose Theodore (44 - Mtl)

Round 5:
Turco (124 - Dal)

Round 9:
Hedberg (218 - Phi)
Nabokov (219 - SJ)
Vokoun (226 - Mtl)
Graham (229 - Bos)

Although the talent level really dropped off in the 1st round of '94, LA missed out on Jeff Friesen and Mattias Ohlund... and they wouldn't have suffered too bad with an eventual third liner in Moreau either.

At this point its harder to know what will happen with the class of '99 (Boondock's final year in his analysis), but here are some goalies that weren't in the 1st round in 1999:

Round 2:
Alex Auld (40 - Florida)
Jan Lasak (65 - Nas)

Round 3:
Sebastian Caron (86 - Pitts)

Round 5:
Ryan Millar (138 - Buffalo)

Round 6:
Martin Prusek (164 - Ottawa)

MrMackey is offline  
Old
04-13-2004, 01:06 PM
  #25
Digger12
Registered User
 
Digger12's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Defending the border
Posts: 14,852
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrMackey
I was just looking at the '94 draft year, since it was the first year in Boondock's analysis. I remember how hot of a commodity Storr was at the time... certainly a sure-fire starter and he even played in five games in the '94 season. Fichaud was another ultra-hot prospect and, as Boondock pointed out, Ryabchikov and Cloutier also went in the first round.

But what I thought was interesting is who didn't go in the first round that year:

Round 2:
Jose Theodore (44 - Mtl)

Round 5:
Turco (124 - Dal)

Round 9:
Hedberg (218 - Phi)
Nabokov (219 - SJ)
Vokoun (226 - Mtl)
Graham (229 - Bos)

Although the talent level really dropped off in the 1st round of '94, LA missed out on Jeff Friesen and Mattias Ohlund... and they wouldn't have suffered too bad with an eventual third liner in Moreau either.

At this point its harder to know what will happen with the class of '99 (Boondock's final year in his analysis), but here are some goalies that weren't in the 1st round in 1999:

Round 2:
Alex Auld (40 - Florida)
Jan Lasak (65 - Nas)

Round 3:
Sebastian Caron (86 - Pitts)

Round 5:
Ryan Millar (138 - Buffalo)

Round 6:
Martin Prusek (164 - Ottawa)
I remember that about Storr too...he was the 'it' goalie at the time, Bob Mackenzie was a big fan and would tout him every chance he got. One of those goalies that came into his draft year with 'no real weaknesses'.

Turns out he did have a weakness...he simply wasn't all that talented. He had the work ethic, but those CHL skills just didn't evolve to a high enough NHL level.

Ever notice how Bob Mackenzie will often latch onto one particular prospect during their junior years and push him to the moon, (Landon Wilson, Aaron Gavey), and most times that kid never pans out? Or maybe that's just my perception of it.

It's a weird thing with goalies...there's a VERY fine line between greatness and mediocrity. You can hide a forward's or dman's weaknesses by playing him limited minutes on the 4th line or matching him against weaker opposition, but that doesn't really wash with the goaltender position. There's only two positions on the team, and one is a lot more important than the other...if the starter falters, your fallback postion can be rather tenuous.

The holes in a goalie's game get exposes a whole hell of a lot easier than they do in any other player on a team. All it takes is one bad season, one bad playoff series, one bad game or even one bad goal at the wrong time. The pressure is HUGE. IMO the ability to handle that pressure is much more of a defining attribute between a starter and his backup than endurance or even talent level. It's all mental toughness and attitude, and that's a far tricker thing to scout for than physical ability.

Perhaps that's why drafting goalies has always held this stigma of blindfold dart throwing to it.

Digger12 is offline  
Closed Thread

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 05:31 AM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. ©2014 All Rights Reserved.