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Old
11-25-2009, 11:54 AM
  #126
Soundwave
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I think we're probably going to miss the playoffs a few more years even if they "try".

It's going to become like a Chicago/L.A. type drought, the question is does management want some top 5 picks in there or not.

Making the playoffs has become a lot harder in the cap era.

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11-25-2009, 12:36 PM
  #127
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Originally Posted by Soundwave View Post
The Oilers wouldn't have gotten the no.1 pick even if they lost to Calgary. I forgot what the break down was, but I remember going over it a few times back then.
a loss to calgary could have lead to the draft randomization being picked 2 minutes later and completely different results too

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11-25-2009, 01:23 PM
  #128
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a loss to calgary could have lead to the draft randomization being picked 2 minutes later and completely different results too
A loss would've put us at 5th I think and Caps at 6th. The Caps I think won their last game or something and we just had to lose and there would be a tie breaker [or 1pt difference]..something like that if my memory serves me correct....something like that

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11-26-2009, 04:27 AM
  #129
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Originally Posted by VincenzosOil View Post
I'll make this brief as I'm heading into Edm. to watch tonites game with my son

First, your post is as well a thought out and reasoned argument as I have read on this board.

I am just going to comment on a couple of points that you bring up for now.

Philly, I agree, would be a team to copy. They hit the jackpot with Richards and Carter. Good scouting or horses**t luck? Probably a bit of both. UFA 's that want to play in Philly certainly lends an aura of a sound management philosophy.

Interesting how they sent assets to Nashville for exclusive negotiating rights to UFA's Timonen and Hartnell (or was it Upshall?). Smart, bold and progressive thinking on their part.

I disagree with the importance you seem to give that #2 pick, how you correlate that pick with Philly's resurgence the following year and as a weak validation of the tanking model you advocate (sorry, rebuild). That pick had nothing to do with Philly's comeback. They had the pieces in place already and I am inclined to believe that their miserable season was an anomaly of sorts, a reverse fluke if you will. The only way I see that pick supporting your rebuild model is the sustainment of a perennial contender but I still believe they will be for many years to come, with or without that pick.

I do not want the Oiler organization to tank. Unpredictable to reach the hallowed 1 or 2 pick. The odds for success via rebuild are better than other methods, as you suggest. But there are other methods and options to turn us into a yearly contender, which you recognize and argue against. It is not an exact science and I am not implying you think otherwise. But it can be done without resorting to questionable methods and still provide the fans with a competitive, if not playoff calibre, team.

As I stated previously, keep our organizational head up, play the team hard, teach them to compete (hello Quinn), trade to fill holes, continue the attempt to land the big fish and let the chips fall where they fall come draft time. Oh yeah, fire the scouting staff... j/k

Edit: Geez, I forgot to comment on the bolded part which I think is the crucial part to any rebuild, that is recognizing the exigent moment and making the decisive commitment to tank. Not done without courage of conviction.

Boy, this wasn't as brief a response as I had wanted....
Well first thank you very much and I hope you guys had a great time at the game!

Perhaps if we had kept rebuilding in 2008 & 2009 they would have actually won tonight

It's also interesting that you bring up how that Nashville deal went down. I almost focused on it in my last post, but decided to just give Edmonton the benefit of the doubt. As I recall Lowe wanted that exact deal (on their end). Badly. Now in this particular case there's nothing I'm aware of that suggests Edmonton was at a disadvantage dealing with Nashville, but ultimately he was outbid and the rest is history. Attribution in this case being right or wrong, it's still part of a disturbing trend lately of Edmonton not being able to get the players they really want.

Oh I never intended to make JVR a cornerstone piece for them, and I agree wholeheartedly that he's the least important factor in their resurgence. Although yes, it will be interesting to see what kind of an impact he has on that franchise long-term now...you never know which player might emerge as that key piece to put a team over the mountaintop.

I mean, I can certainly understand the impulse and desire to not want to rebuild. It's a tough road by nature. The thing is though I've yet to see anyone else propose anything even close to a realistic plan to make this team a contender otherwise.

I had a large re-build thread in the offseason where I posited that question over and again. Basically the best answer anyone could come up with is what you're saying here.

The main problems with that as I see it are this:

29 other teams are all trying to do the same thing.

Many of them exist in much more desirable markets than Edmonton -> this is two-fold, some as a desirable locale, and others, more importantly, as better teams than Edmonton. Which is also two-fold I suppose, with certain teams set up better for success now, and others set up better for success later. And of course the most dreaded of them all, the team that has all of the above. I'd look to LA as an example of this.

To me, if your ultimate goal icing a team in this league isn't to win a Stanley Cup in as frequent an order as possible, then why even bother. And if these are the teams you're going to be up against are those who boast the qualities mentioned above then you have to ask yourself what advantages does Edmonton have over them that they can use to get there?

Well...the two biggest that have routinely jumped out at me are a billionaire owner, and a Canadian fanbase that should at the very least should be counted on to at least sustain the team, even through a few years of abysmal finishes.

I think one of the more ironic things in all this is that I view your chosen course of action (trying to make smart trades, land big fish, cross fingers with draft picks etc...) as the one where we're blatantly rolling the dice. And with the odds stacked massively against us.

It's interesting in that thread I alluded to earlier I boiled down Tambo's offseason options into three generalized directions. There was rebuild, maintain status quo, and shoot for big fish. I said that if he went for the big fish the chances were extremely high that he'd miss, and just end up mired back in the status quo. After he went for the fences with the coaches, I immediately said this is almost certainly his offseason plan and it will be admirable, but sadly fall short.

Dany Heatley should be the ultimate lesson for this franchise in a great many ways. Marquee players do not want to play here. And really, can anyone blame them? The other part of that thread I broke down was even if Tambo hit multiple homeruns in that offseason, that team would almost certainly not be a Stanley Cup contender. Heatley saw this. He looked at the roster with him on it and saw a cap team that would likely still be fighting just to make the playoffs.

This roster is unfortunately just a serious cluster****. It needs a massive purge.

And who is going to take these players, and what return are you going to get? If you want to get competitive in the here and now what team is going to give you assets in return for Nilsson, Pouliot, Jacques, Moreau, Staios etc etc that are going to help you to that end? Can Shawn Horcoff at 5.5M really be a component of a Stanley Cup team?

Then at the other end of the spectrum you've got players like Eberle and MPS that could jump up and flesh this team out some. Aside from making room for them, are these guys really enough on their own to go up against the Ovechkins, Crosbys, Kanes & Toews' that other teams are going to boast over the coming years?

How do you jimmy a team with far too many of it's assets in the middling range into a contender? That's the task you're setting for Tambo. Unfortunately I just can't see it happening. It's a hope and a prayer.

I mean understand that nothing would make me happier to see the guy pull off savvy move after savvy move and point this ship towards paradise island. And I'd be thrilled to be able to come back here and eat a massive helping of crow. I'll never bet the college tuition on that though.

I don't think I even know how to make a short post.

And p.s. kudos to you as well for making this a model of board conversation.

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Old
11-26-2009, 09:08 AM
  #130
jeremywilhelm
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Originally Posted by JohnAlexander View Post
Well first thank you very much and I hope you guys had a great time at the game!

Perhaps if we had kept rebuilding in 2008 & 2009 they would have actually won tonight

It's also interesting that you bring up how that Nashville deal went down. I almost focused on it in my last post, but decided to just give Edmonton the benefit of the doubt. As I recall Lowe wanted that exact deal (on their end). Badly. Now in this particular case there's nothing I'm aware of that suggests Edmonton was at a disadvantage dealing with Nashville, but ultimately he was outbid and the rest is history. Attribution in this case being right or wrong, it's still part of a disturbing trend lately of Edmonton not being able to get the players they really want.

Oh I never intended to make JVR a cornerstone piece for them, and I agree wholeheartedly that he's the least important factor in their resurgence. Although yes, it will be interesting to see what kind of an impact he has on that franchise long-term now...you never know which player might emerge as that key piece to put a team over the mountaintop.

I mean, I can certainly understand the impulse and desire to not want to rebuild. It's a tough road by nature. The thing is though I've yet to see anyone else propose anything even close to a realistic plan to make this team a contender otherwise.

I had a large re-build thread in the offseason where I posited that question over and again. Basically the best answer anyone could come up with is what you're saying here.

The main problems with that as I see it are this:

29 other teams are all trying to do the same thing.

Many of them exist in much more desirable markets than Edmonton -> this is two-fold, some as a desirable locale, and others, more importantly, as better teams than Edmonton. Which is also two-fold I suppose, with certain teams set up better for success now, and others set up better for success later. And of course the most dreaded of them all, the team that has all of the above. I'd look to LA as an example of this.

To me, if your ultimate goal icing a team in this league isn't to win a Stanley Cup in as frequent an order as possible, then why even bother. And if these are the teams you're going to be up against are those who boast the qualities mentioned above then you have to ask yourself what advantages does Edmonton have over them that they can use to get there?

Well...the two biggest that have routinely jumped out at me are a billionaire owner, and a Canadian fanbase that should at the very least should be counted on to at least sustain the team, even through a few years of abysmal finishes.

I think one of the more ironic things in all this is that I view your chosen course of action (trying to make smart trades, land big fish, cross fingers with draft picks etc...) as the one where we're blatantly rolling the dice. And with the odds stacked massively against us.

It's interesting in that thread I alluded to earlier I boiled down Tambo's offseason options into three generalized directions. There was rebuild, maintain status quo, and shoot for big fish. I said that if he went for the big fish the chances were extremely high that he'd miss, and just end up mired back in the status quo. After he went for the fences with the coaches, I immediately said this is almost certainly his offseason plan and it will be admirable, but sadly fall short.

Dany Heatley should be the ultimate lesson for this franchise in a great many ways. Marquee players do not want to play here. And really, can anyone blame them? The other part of that thread I broke down was even if Tambo hit multiple homeruns in that offseason, that team would almost certainly not be a Stanley Cup contender. Heatley saw this. He looked at the roster with him on it and saw a cap team that would likely still be fighting just to make the playoffs.

This roster is unfortunately just a serious cluster****. It needs a massive purge.

And who is going to take these players, and what return are you going to get? If you want to get competitive in the here and now what team is going to give you assets in return for Nilsson, Pouliot, Jacques, Moreau, Staios etc etc that are going to help you to that end? Can Shawn Horcoff at 5.5M really be a component of a Stanley Cup team?

Then at the other end of the spectrum you've got players like Eberle and MPS that could jump up and flesh this team out some. Aside from making room for them, are these guys really enough on their own to go up against the Ovechkins, Crosbys, Kanes & Toews' that other teams are going to boast over the coming years?

How do you jimmy a team with far too many of it's assets in the middling range into a contender? That's the task you're setting for Tambo. Unfortunately I just can't see it happening. It's a hope and a prayer.

I mean understand that nothing would make me happier to see the guy pull off savvy move after savvy move and point this ship towards paradise island. And I'd be thrilled to be able to come back here and eat a massive helping of crow. I'll never bet the college tuition on that though.

I don't think I even know how to make a short post.

And p.s. kudos to you as well for making this a model of board conversation.
Huge get a huge "thanks" button from me on this post.

Cluster**** is the best word used when describing this line-up, their contracts, and the team management.

Just seems like no one is on the same page, from the owner on down to the 4th liners.

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Old
11-26-2009, 02:06 PM
  #131
VincenzosOil
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnAlexander View Post
Well first thank you very much and I hope you guys had a great time at the game!

Perhaps if we had kept rebuilding in 2008 & 2009 they would have actually won tonight

It's also interesting that you bring up how that Nashville deal went down. I almost focused on it in my last post, but decided to just give Edmonton the benefit of the doubt. As I recall Lowe wanted that exact deal (on their end). Badly. Now in this particular case there's nothing I'm aware of that suggests Edmonton was at a disadvantage dealing with Nashville, but ultimately he was outbid and the rest is history. Attribution in this case being right or wrong, it's still part of a disturbing trend lately of Edmonton not being able to get the players they really want.

Oh I never intended to make JVR a cornerstone piece for them, and I agree wholeheartedly that he's the least important factor in their resurgence. Although yes, it will be interesting to see what kind of an impact he has on that franchise long-term now...you never know which player might emerge as that key piece to put a team over the mountaintop.

I mean, I can certainly understand the impulse and desire to not want to rebuild. It's a tough road by nature. The thing is though I've yet to see anyone else propose anything even close to a realistic plan to make this team a contender otherwise.

I had a large re-build thread in the offseason where I posited that question over and again. Basically the best answer anyone could come up with is what you're saying here.

The main problems with that as I see it are this:

29 other teams are all trying to do the same thing.

Many of them exist in much more desirable markets than Edmonton -> this is two-fold, some as a desirable locale, and others, more importantly, as better teams than Edmonton. Which is also two-fold I suppose, with certain teams set up better for success now, and others set up better for success later. And of course the most dreaded of them all, the team that has all of the above. I'd look to LA as an example of this.

To me, if your ultimate goal icing a team in this league isn't to win a Stanley Cup in as frequent an order as possible, then why even bother. And if these are the teams you're going to be up against are those who boast the qualities mentioned above then you have to ask yourself what advantages does Edmonton have over them that they can use to get there?

Well...the two biggest that have routinely jumped out at me are a billionaire owner, and a Canadian fanbase that should at the very least should be counted on to at least sustain the team, even through a few years of abysmal finishes.

I think one of the more ironic things in all this is that I view your chosen course of action (trying to make smart trades, land big fish, cross fingers with draft picks etc...) as the one where we're blatantly rolling the dice. And with the odds stacked massively against us.

It's interesting in that thread I alluded to earlier I boiled down Tambo's offseason options into three generalized directions. There was rebuild, maintain status quo, and shoot for big fish. I said that if he went for the big fish the chances were extremely high that he'd miss, and just end up mired back in the status quo. After he went for the fences with the coaches, I immediately said this is almost certainly his offseason plan and it will be admirable, but sadly fall short.

Dany Heatley should be the ultimate lesson for this franchise in a great many ways. Marquee players do not want to play here. And really, can anyone blame them? The other part of that thread I broke down was even if Tambo hit multiple homeruns in that offseason, that team would almost certainly not be a Stanley Cup contender. Heatley saw this. He looked at the roster with him on it and saw a cap team that would likely still be fighting just to make the playoffs.

This roster is unfortunately just a serious cluster****. It needs a massive purge.

And who is going to take these players, and what return are you going to get? If you want to get competitive in the here and now what team is going to give you assets in return for Nilsson, Pouliot, Jacques, Moreau, Staios etc etc that are going to help you to that end? Can Shawn Horcoff at 5.5M really be a component of a Stanley Cup team?

Then at the other end of the spectrum you've got players like Eberle and MPS that could jump up and flesh this team out some. Aside from making room for them, are these guys really enough on their own to go up against the Ovechkins, Crosbys, Kanes & Toews' that other teams are going to boast over the coming years?

How do you jimmy a team with far too many of it's assets in the middling range into a contender? That's the task you're setting for Tambo. Unfortunately I just can't see it happening. It's a hope and a prayer.

I mean understand that nothing would make me happier to see the guy pull off savvy move after savvy move and point this ship towards paradise island. And I'd be thrilled to be able to come back here and eat a massive helping of crow. I'll never bet the college tuition on that though.

I don't think I even know how to make a short post.

And p.s. kudos to you as well for making this a model of board conversation.
Ah, never did make it to Edm. Was just going to hang out with my kid and catch the game on his wide screen. But impending labor disruptions at my place of work held me back.

Good post and argument again JA. I'll see if I can be brief this time.

I'm with this plan. But the timing has got to be right. We can't do it this early into the season, without getting an accurate read on the team - injuries, illness etc - but if we're well out of it come mid season, fair team assessment or not, then I'm on board. But as I said previously, management has to recognize the moment, everybody has to be on board at the decisive moment and we still need to ice as competitive a team as possible within the plans restrictions. The latter might be the biggest impediment to a top 5 spot though. I prefer we "earn" our top 5. Purge and trade assets, contracts and identify keepers. Easier said then done though. Tough to guarantee a high pick without giving the appearance of throwing the season. And that is the conundrum.

But just don't call it tanking

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Old
11-27-2009, 02:53 AM
  #132
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Originally Posted by VincenzosOil View Post
Ah, never did make it to Edm. Was just going to hang out with my kid and catch the game on his wide screen. But impending labor disruptions at my place of work held me back.

Good post and argument again JA. I'll see if I can be brief this time.

I'm with this plan. But the timing has got to be right. We can't do it this early into the season, without getting an accurate read on the team - injuries, illness etc - but if we're well out of it come mid season, fair team assessment or not, then I'm on board. But as I said previously, management has to recognize the moment, everybody has to be on board at the decisive moment and we still need to ice as competitive a team as possible within the plans restrictions. The latter might be the biggest impediment to a top 5 spot though. I prefer we "earn" our top 5. Purge and trade assets, contracts and identify keepers. Easier said then done though. Tough to guarantee a high pick without giving the appearance of throwing the season. And that is the conundrum.

But just don't call it tanking
Ahh, well might have been for the best anyhow then, but hope the labor issues aren't too disrupting.

And thanks again, and sorry for the late reply. Been running all over the place lately.

A convert! Trust me, you're only beginning to see the power of the darkside!

Well the whole timing thing is quite interesting, and it looks like we both agree that this is a lynchpin regardless of where we stand on the specifics.

As to those, the penultimate time has to be trade deadline. It's the highest volume time where we'd be able to shed a bunch of those veteran contracts and load up on futures, particularly those in the coming draft. I think where we might divert a bit is on moves that could be made here and now. If I was Tambo I'd be looking to make at least one savvy trade of a key player here and now for some package that fits the new direction of the org better. Say for example a Cole/O'Sullivan + 2nd type of template. With maybe one of the $ offensive Dmen.

I mean it depends on how you look at things. We're both 5 points back of a playoff spot and 6 points out of a top-two pick. So theoretically we either only need to play marginally better to make the playoffs, or marginally worse to get a very high percentage pick. I guess to me again seeing as we're a cap team just the fact that we're mired in this bog it would seem that going down is the logical path is to take. And where we'd have a discrepancy again, is that I would welcome a move now that signaled we were in rebuild mode.

Although the way things are going perhaps most fortunately for us all it won't matter if we make that decision now or on March 4th (5th? when the hell is trade deadline this year anyway?!).

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11-27-2009, 06:33 AM
  #133
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i dont' think the oilers are going anywhere if they stay at 10th....they either need 6th+ or 14th-

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Old
11-27-2009, 10:21 PM
  #134
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I think we're probably going to miss the playoffs a few more years even if they "try".

It's going to become like a Chicago/L.A. type drought, the question is does management want some top 5 picks in there or not.

Making the playoffs has become a lot harder in the cap era.
I agree. History shows that those teams which have been bad for a while and come back strong as contenders and really good upstart young teams did so thanks to high draft picks. Pittsburgh, Washington, Chicago, LA, they were the cellar dwellars for a long time and collected picks like mad. The Oilers have tried going the FA route and failed, and now we're already at 4 years without the playoffs and the future looks bleak outside of a handful of promising prospects.

I've never been the type to say a tank job or overhaul is the way to go, but I'm starting to lean towards it.

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Old
11-27-2009, 11:06 PM
  #135
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The problem is our 2 best players right now(lubo and Souray) are extremely unhappy with the situation right now. Another season like the last 2 and they will probably want out. I would be a seller at the deadline though and I would tank.

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