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Will Tambellini blow the ship this season?

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Old
11-28-2009, 09:46 PM
  #101
Doswell
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Originally Posted by dashingsilverfox View Post
Sounds about right although I would put Nilsson into the "for certain" category and Khabibulin into the "possible."
And I'd put Souray in the very likely category - partly because I think there was a strong whisper that he'd like to move (ideally to LA), partly because he's very marketable with that booming shot, and partly because his -16 as an Oiler suggests that we wouldn't lose as much as some may think.

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Old
11-28-2009, 09:52 PM
  #102
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Originally Posted by Doswell View Post
And I'd put Souray in the very likely category - partly because I think there was a strong whisper that he'd like to move (ideally to LA), partly because he's very marketable with that booming shot, and partly because his -16 as an Oiler suggests that we wouldn't lose as much as some may think.
Just a hunch, but I have a feeling Souray ends up in Phoenix.

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Old
11-29-2009, 12:42 PM
  #103
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Just a hunch, but I have a feeling Souray ends up in Phoenix.
Are they paying him in Canadian Tire money or Arby's coupons?

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Old
11-29-2009, 12:44 PM
  #104
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Are they paying him in Canadian Tire money or Arby's coupons?
Garybucks

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Old
11-29-2009, 03:11 PM
  #105
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Players that I would trade away and get a 1st back for are:
Souray- He will get you a 1st and a prospect
Vis- He will get a 1st and a prospect
Gilbert- Good prospect or 1st
Pisani- late draft pick
Horc- I do think that he is tradeable but you are not going to get much back for him.

I would try to trade Gilbert and Cogs for Cowen in Ottawa. He is a big dman that in the future will be a big shut down dman. Those two players will help Ottawa out now.

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Old
11-29-2009, 04:15 PM
  #106
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Players that I would trade away and get a 1st back for are:
Souray- He will get you a 1st and a prospect
Vis- He will get a 1st and a prospect
Gilbert- Good prospect or 1st
Pisani- late draft pick
Horc- I do think that he is tradeable but you are not going to get much back for him.

I would try to trade Gilbert and Cogs for Cowen in Ottawa. He is a big dman that in the future will be a big shut down dman. Those two players will help Ottawa out now.
I agree for the most part, except there is absolutely no way Horcoff gets moved. I know everyone likes to point out the Gomez trade last summer, but Gomez is a two time 80-point player, Horcoff is a glorified 50-point guy and every GM is cognizant of that fact.

LA has a lot of cap room, and they are a preferred destination for Sheldon. I would try to pry away a 1st round pick and Wayne Simmonds if they are in a position to contend for the playoffs by the deadline.

Visnovsky would be a very valued commodity on a team like Columbus, who does not have a top-pairing puck-mover. I`d assume that Visnovsky could warrant a return such as Chimera, Klesla and a 2nd round pick.

Gilbert would be a good fit for Ottawa as you mentioned, but I doubt they`re willing to take on his salary, unless we take back some overpaid contracts ourselves. Gilbert and Cogs for Neil and Kelly would be feasible, I would imagine.

MPS-Seguin-Hemsky
Penner-Gagner-Eberle
Chimera-Horcoff-Neil
Simmonds-Kelly-Brule

Klesla-Smid
Grebeshkov-Petry
Chorney-Staios

Khabibulin
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Old
11-29-2009, 04:17 PM
  #107
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I'm thinking Souray to New Jersey may happen at the deadline for a 1st + prospect or something.

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Old
11-30-2009, 03:01 AM
  #108
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Originally Posted by hemskysuncle View Post
To paraphrase my thoughts on this...response...of yours i will say that you are simply trying to mask simple straight forward logic with a bunch of long winded intellectual irrelevant and untrue comments. I did not say that Savard and Chara were unimportant at all. I also did not imply that the Bruins have only 2 impact players...My whole argument was that these two signings helped turn them around while they were getting impact play from the rest of their draft graduates. Now say what you want about Sobotka...that is a different issue where we simply seem to differ in opinion (you thinking he is useless...after a 16 career game assessment, and me thinking he will develop into a significant player).

And don't try and throw all these names at me that the Pens have in their system. I know they have a great core, but how many are going to be there in 3 years? They have TWO players at a cap hit of 8.7 per year. One centre in Staal that will want a raise when his contract comes up in 2012, whom they had trouble fitting in already with his new contract.....Orpik is locked in, but they have Letang who is due at the end of next year, and they can barely keep their team together as it is, with 10 thousand under the cap right now...they are also looking at posisbly losing Gonchar...and with such a shallow pool of prospects to replace those they will lose...who is going to replace this "amazing core of players"???

Sure they won a cup...i give you that they have the 2 best players in the game. or at least 2 of the top 3. But in the cap world...two contracts at 8.7...just doesn't leave much for depth and you have to rely on rookie (or at least young) talent to bring you through. they don't have it coming up and unless they draft REALLY well, they WON'T have it. The only player of ANY note on their roster after the "amazing 4" is Tyler Kennedy. I mean...where are you going with this? If you want to choose a different team to base as your "model team' then let me know...but this ain't it. I am sorry.

If you want me to get down to the point of this argument, all useless details aside (we can compare Pittsburgh to Boston, or Carolina to Florida...it doesn't matter), as NHL is a business, and the true measure of success is long term and sustained success, even if it doesn't mean a ring on your finger every second year...tanking is not the answer.
Logic? Almost all the arguments you're trying to make here are based entirely in the illogical. The foremost example being the extreme delusion that some sort of "long term dedication in scouting development" is the key to success and that it will beget "5th and 6th rounder top scorers if you do it right". Which teams currently lack such dedication? How so? Where specifically is the current advantage held by one team's scouting department over another and how are they able to achieve that? Based on their model of extraordinary success and advantage how does one go about replicating that within their own organization? Then following that what are the odds the greatest scouting squad in the world procures top NHL scorers in the 5th and 6th rounds? I mean seriously, I'm masking logic here?

Logic is that you build and support as strong a scouting staff as possible, but also assume that every other team is doing the same and you're always going to have to fight for every inch of advantage you get in this area. You never, ever, ever count on being able to outsmart 29 other teams year in year out in the dregs of the draft. Logic is that the higher draft choices are infinitely more likely to pan out than the lower.

And what specifically have I said that's untrue or irrelevant? You didn't imply that the Bruins only had two impact players?

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Originally Posted by hemskysuncle View Post
sidenote to this is IMO, it would require the signing, or acquisition of ONE more impact player, by which I mean a player that can change the game themselves, and a player that influences all those around him to play better. The Bruins have one on othe back end in Chara, and one on the front end in Savard. The Oilers have this locked on the back end in Souray...the question is who will be the front end member. Do we have it in Penner? Or are we still in search mode?
In itallics you even give a bloody definition of impact player before moving forward to specifically address the two you feel Boston has.

Now after accusing me of misrepresentation, you go ahead and do it yourself. I never accused you of saying Chara and Savard were unimportant (although that would seemingly be a fair enough assertion). But for full clarification here's the bulk of the exchange again:

Quote:
Originally Posted by hemskysuncle View Post
Long term success is guaranteed through long term dedication in scouting development. 5th and 6th rounders can become top scorers in the league if you do things right. and as Boston could be in the process of proving (with only 2 UFA signings, by the way...quite similar to Pitts who have Geurin, Fedotenko, Skoula and others through UFA, none of which are toddlers....)
So first you conjoin success with scouting, particularly in the later rounds of the draft. Within this context you directly undercut the importance of UFAs to that process when you say that any of that success Boston might be having comes with only 2 UFAs. And you further reinforce this immediately after that by highlighting the similarities between Bos and Pit in this regard, specifically implying that the importance of Boston's UFAs to Boston and Boston's draftees to Boston are "quite similar" to the importance of Pit's UFAs to Pit and Pit's draftees to Pit.

Also not escaping this is your earlier comment that "Well considering the fact that the only argument on age you have is Chara and Savard, I would say that maintaining their level is quite possible." Yes, only their two most important players by a country mile. This comment specifically and directly undercuts the importance of Chara and Savard to the Bruins.

And in response to all of this what I say is:

Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnAlexander View Post
But now it's not such a big deal to future success if they fall off the map in a hurry? I'm sorry, but it doesn't work like that. Savard and Chara are the Bruins. Once they lose effectiveness that team will not be even close to the same. And then at the end of your post you try and slough off their meaning and importance to the Bruins again as "only 2 UFA signings"...yeah only two UFA signings that Edmonton has next to zero chance of replicating, and only two UFA signings that are the absolute core of their team.
Misrepresentation? Untrue? Sloughing off meaning and importance does not = unimportant. It specifically references levels of importance to a team, of which you're clearly trying to attribute less than what's necessary to Savard and Chara. Misrepresentation on my part is patently ludicrous.

Although you seem to continue. Where did I say Sobotka was useless? I implied/stated he wasn't a key to success. As with almost any grinder who projects to be in that role for the entirety of his career imo.

I'll throw all the names at you I want and the kitchen sink. Although in absence of a sink smily I'll just toss another pink elephant your way

Especially when you start up this wharrgarbl undercutting the importance of winning the cup (for clarification ahead of time when you say "Sure they won a cup...but" it undercuts it's importance. This is further reinforced by your entire final sentence), and Pit looking bad moving forward. The NHL is a business, yes, but it's no business that a smart investor gets in to make money. It's a passion industry where winning a championship takes precedence over all other things. 100 years from now people will remember that the Oilers had an amazing dynasty team. They aren't going to give a hoopty froopty froop that Boston was a perennial powerhouse/contender throughout that entire time period. Hell, no one cares now. They're still making documentaries about the Oilers.

This core:
Crosby/Malkin/Kunitz/Staal/Goligoski/Orpik/Fleury is signed through 2012 @ a 35.7M caphit. Lets add Letang in there @ 3M (fair enough I think). That's 38.7M looking like this:

Kunitz Crosby (2)
(1.8) Malkin (.725)
(1.05) Staal (1.4)
(1.2) (.825) (.55)
(.578)

Letang Orpik
Goli (2)
(.8) (.575)
(.5)

Fleury
(.525)

Leaving exactly 18M based on todays cap for 12-14 depth players. We'll go with 14 averaging 1.3M per player.

You'll see I plugged in the values the Pens have in those positions here today. It's not 100% exact with taking account of roster fluctuations, callups and what not, but it should work 100% effectively for illustration purposes. That adds up to a 53.228 caphit. Leaving basically 3.5M to play with assuming todays cap. If you want to argue how it's going to drop I think it's only fair to speculate that along with a cap drop would be a relative drop in player value, keeping the values relatively constant.

When you boil it down every player the Pens have outside of the listed is a depth player...those that are easily replaced and at cheap value. Think Guerin is special? There's going to be Max Afinogenov reclamation projects every year...there were tons of vets left without a contract going into this season and do you honestly think any of them wouldn't jump at the chance to play for the Pens. Probably at a discount. Kennedy is special? They can afford to keep him, no problem. The only real exception to this is Gonchar. And with that cap surplus he generates if Goli and Letang still need help, picking up a suitable replacement in the FA market shouldn't be too troubling. Markov the year after next looks like a prime target to me. Not to mention who can really say where the cap will be in two years...if the market turns around here it can jump back up and quick.

Want to look even further into the future? The real elite talent is signed all the way through 2013 (this includes Staal still having a contract in 2012). They took discounts the first time around. Think they won't do it again?

To put all the above into perspective looking above Pit's depth is a weak point, certainly...but their core is amazing. A core that has routinely pounded on great depth teams like Boston (Detroit had depth last year that puts Boston to shame and look how that worked out). A core that clearly is fine with the barest minimum of depth, something of which they can easily maintain. You want to judge their pipeline based on some relatively arbitrary HF rankings, yet they've got no fewer than 9 players ranked by HF as greater than, or essentially equal to, Sobotka, who you seem to think is some sort of draft/depth wunderkind. Absolute worst case scenario they're only a Staal trade away from all the depth they'd ever need.

This is essentially the same team that has finished 1, 2, & 11 the last three years and currently sits in 3rd. Versus a Boston team over that same span that's finished 6, 15, 23 and currently sits in 10th. And you want to model Boston...based on some imagined potential future successes as achieved by their draft depth? And disparage the intact Pit team that has already, and continues, to get it done elite. Seriously?

Pit is as close to a guaranteed success over the next 3 years as any team in the league, and certainly poised to be that way far longer after that. Crosby and Malkin @ 8.7 isn't a detriment in any way...it's their greatest asset.

The funniest thing about the entire comparison is that if Boston does indeed find a way to maintain "success" over the coming years it will likely be dependent on two main things; one, the ability to replenish potential losses in the FA market (an avenue not even close to similarly available to Edmonton) or via their top tier draft choices filched from Tor via their own former top tier draft choice.

Edmonton has a chance to follow in the mold similar to Pit and have it reap true success. Or they could try in vain, as they have been, to emulate the Boston model, which even if it were to succeed on the slimmest of chances, would likely generate barely even a whiff of the cup.

But hey, it might end up keeping the business in the black. And that's what counts eh?

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Old
11-30-2009, 04:23 AM
  #109
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Originally Posted by JohnAlexander View Post
Crosby/Malkin/Kunitz/Staal/Goligoski/Orpik/Fleury is signed through 2012 @ a 35.7M caphit. Lets add Letang in there @ 3M (fair enough I think). That's 38.7M looking like this
Pretty incredible. Amazing to think there are at least 12 idiot GMs that aren't already blowing up their hopeless teams this year.

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Old
11-30-2009, 04:48 AM
  #110
hemskysuncle
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Originally Posted by JohnAlexander View Post
Logic? Almost all the arguments you're trying to make here are based entirely in the illogical.
Explain this. I don't see "illogical" bases anywhere in my argument...and before you try to prove it to me, explain to me how your "logic" is 100% proven to be better than mine

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Originally Posted by JohnAlexander View Post
The foremost example being the extreme delusion that some sort of "long term dedication in scouting development" is the key to success and that it will beget "5th and 6th rounder top scorers if you do it right".
Again explain how this is a delusion. 90% of all hockey management, players and fans would say that the Detroit model of success is one they would all model their team after if they could. And this, strangely enough, consists of "long term dedication in scouting development".

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Originally Posted by JohnAlexander View Post
Which teams currently lack such dedication? How so? Where specifically is the current advantage held by one team's scouting department over another and how are they able to achieve that? Based on their model of extraordinary success and advantage how does one go about replicating that within their own organization? Then following that what are the odds the greatest scouting squad in the world procures top NHL scorers in the 5th and 6th rounds? I mean seriously, I'm masking logic here?
Here again, you are putting words in my mouth and trying to over-intellectualize things. I never said either team was more dedicated. I said one is thin in prospects and one isn't. One has developed their late draft picks into what seems will be very serviceable players for them, and one hasn't. Pittsburgh came to their success, not fully by development. That would have only taken them half way there. If you look at the team 2 years ago it is significantly different, with many players that they developed leaving for other teams (either by trade or FA). They go there by having a win now attitude, which was borne out of a feeling of desperation where they didn't know year to year if the team would exist. (you can google the articles for reference with search words Mellon Arena, City of Pittsburgh, Mario Lemieux, debt, near bankruptcy, etc.). Now this may be an unproven "reason" that I could be just creating in my illogical mind, but I am sure there are other crazy people that might agree it is a possibility. Either way, the purchased Hossa, they purchased Sykora, purchased Satan, and essentially purchased Geurin. In addition, they traded away the future for "win now", in trading away Whitney, Stone, Christensen, and others. Sure they have Tangradi and Despres, but after them, there isn't much to replace what was an extremely talented young team.

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Originally Posted by JohnAlexander View Post
Logic is that you build and support as strong a scouting staff as possible, but also assume that every other team is doing the same and you're always going to have to fight for every inch of advantage you get in this area. You never, ever, ever count on being able to outsmart 29 other teams year in year out in the dregs of the draft. Logic is that the higher draft choices are infinitely more likely to pan out than the lower.
here we agree so I am not sure why you seem to be countering with this argument, because I never said anything to the contrary. If you were insinuating that a team should not rely on their 1st rounders to develop properly, as well (as in, in addition to the 5th and 6th rounders), then I actually cannot talk to you about logic anymore, because it is a lost topic with you.

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And what specifically have I said that's untrue or irrelevant? You didn't imply that the Bruins only had two impact players?
The fact that you are twisting my words, and implying that I am saying things that I am not. I DID say they have two impact players...I also said that they are important players to the organization. However, did not say they have ONLY two impact players...in any of my posts. If you want a "final version" to reference in the future, i would say they have 3 true impact players in Chara, Savard and Krejci. They also have an impact player in the making in Lucic but I won't go as far to say he is an impact player yet because he has not proven it yet. They also lost an impact player in Kessel, but replaced it with great picks...for the future


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Originally Posted by JohnAlexander View Post
In itallics you even give a bloody definition of impact player before moving forward to specifically address the two you feel Boston has.
yes...they influence those around them to play better, and make them look better to boot. At the time of that posting, I was more referencing the FA signings of impact players than those that were home grown. Since then, the conversation has gone away from that a bit.

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Originally Posted by JohnAlexander View Post
Now after accusing me of misrepresentation, you go ahead and do it yourself. I never accused you of saying Chara and Savard were unimportant (although that would seemingly be a fair enough assertion). But for full clarification here's the bulk of the exchange again:




So first you conjoin success with scouting, particularly in the later rounds of the draft. Within this context you directly undercut the importance of UFAs to that process when you say that any of that success Boston might be having comes with only 2 UFAs. And you further reinforce this immediately after that by highlighting the similarities between Bos and Pit in this regard, specifically implying that the importance of Boston's UFAs to Boston and Boston's draftees to Boston are "quite similar" to the importance of Pit's UFAs to Pit and Pit's draftees to Pit.
Ok to be fair to you, that post was a little confused, simply because I wrote it with 8 pints in me. (sorry if i let it stir a bit of emotion and envoke drunken rambling)

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Originally Posted by JohnAlexander View Post
Also not escaping this is your earlier comment that "Well considering the fact that the only argument on age you have is Chara and Savard, I would say that maintaining their level is quite possible." Yes, only their two most important players by a country mile. This comment specifically and directly undercuts the importance of Chara and Savard to the Bruins.

And in response to all of this what I say is:



Misrepresentation? Untrue? Sloughing off meaning and importance does not = unimportant. It specifically references levels of importance to a team, of which you're clearly trying to attribute less than what's necessary to Savard and Chara. Misrepresentation on my part is patently ludicrous.

Although you seem to continue. Where did I say Sobotka was useless? I implied/stated he wasn't a key to success. As with almost any grinder who projects to be in that role for the entirety of his career imo.
I would venture to assert retention of Krejci is more important to the team's future in their mind than retaining Savard. so no, not the two most important...However yes they are two OF the most important players...you know why? They are both in their prime and they are both leaders teaching (and very well) the younger players what it is like to be a successful professional on a long term basis. When you have so many
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I'll throw all the names at you I want and the kitchen sink. Although in absence of a sink smily I'll just toss another pink elephant your way
Thanks...I have always liked pink

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Originally Posted by JohnAlexander View Post
Especially when you start up this wharrgarbl undercutting the importance of winning the cup (for clarification ahead of time when you say "Sure they won a cup...but" it undercuts it's importance. This is further reinforced by your entire final sentence),
That's a matter of opinion and depends on what point you are trying to make. If you want to relate my thinking to an example...all I have to say is Tampa Bay Lightning.

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Originally Posted by JohnAlexander View Post
and Pit looking bad moving forward. The NHL is a business, yes, but it's no business that a smart investor gets in to make money. It's a passion industry where winning a championship takes precedence over all other things. 100 years from now people will remember that the Oilers had an amazing dynasty team. They aren't going to give a hoopty froopty froop that Boston was a perennial powerhouse/contender throughout that entire time period. Hell, no one cares now. They're still making documentaries about the Oilers.
You are right. It is more about passion than about actually making profit. but without the cap, how many teams would we have competing for that championship this year? I mean you preach about logic...but logic states that without the money to pay that 8.7 million to either one of those players, there would be no cup in Pittsburgh. There might not even be a TEAM in Pittsburgh. So yes...making money matters. Period. No argument. Full stop. End of story. (please feel free to add any other comments of the same ilk to this list).
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Originally Posted by JohnAlexander View Post
This core:
Crosby/Malkin/Kunitz/Staal/Goligoski/Orpik/Fleury is signed through 2012 @ a 35.7M caphit. Lets add Letang in there @ 3M (fair enough I think). That's 38.7M looking like this:

Kunitz Crosby (2)
(1.8) Malkin (.725)
(1.05) Staal (1.4)
(1.2) (.825) (.55)
(.578)

Letang Orpik
Goli (2)
(.8) (.575)
(.5)

Fleury
(.525)

Leaving exactly 18M based on todays cap for 12-14 depth players. We'll go with 14 averaging 1.3M per player.

You'll see I plugged in the values the Pens have in those positions here today. It's not 100% exact with taking account of roster fluctuations, callups and what not, but it should work 100% effectively for illustration purposes. That adds up to a 53.228 caphit. Leaving basically 3.5M to play with assuming todays cap. If you want to argue how it's going to drop I think it's only fair to speculate that along with a cap drop would be a relative drop in player value, keeping the values relatively constant.

When you boil it down every player the Pens have outside of the listed is a depth player...those that are easily replaced and at cheap value. Think Guerin is special? There's going to be Max Afinogenov reclamation projects every year...there were tons of vets left without a contract going into this season and do you honestly think any of them wouldn't jump at the chance to play for the Pens. Probably at a discount. Kennedy is special? They can afford to keep him, no problem. The only real exception to this is Gonchar. And with that cap surplus he generates if Goli and Letang still need help, picking up a suitable replacement in the FA market shouldn't be too troubling. Markov the year after next looks like a prime target to me. Not to mention who can really say where the cap will be in two years...if the market turns around here it can jump back up and quick.

Want to look even further into the future? The real elite talent is signed all the way through 2013 (this includes Staal still having a contract in 2012). They took discounts the first time around. Think they won't do it again?

To put all the above into perspective looking above Pit's depth is a weak point, certainly...but their core is amazing. A core that has routinely pounded on great depth teams like Boston (Detroit had depth last year that puts Boston to shame and look how that worked out). A core that clearly is fine with the barest minimum of depth, something of which they can easily maintain. You want to judge their pipeline based on some relatively arbitrary HF rankings, yet they've got no fewer than 9 players ranked by HF as greater than, or essentially equal to, Sobotka, who you seem to think is some sort of draft/depth wunderkind. Absolute worst case scenario they're only a Staal trade away from all the depth they'd ever need.

This is essentially the same team that has finished 1, 2, & 11 the last three years and currently sits in 3rd. Versus a Boston team over that same span that's finished 6, 15, 23 and currently sits in 10th. And you want to model Boston...based on some imagined potential future successes as achieved by their draft depth? And disparage the intact Pit team that has already, and continues, to get it done elite. Seriously?

Pit is as close to a guaranteed success over the next 3 years as any team in the league, and certainly poised to be that way far longer after that. Crosby and Malkin @ 8.7 isn't a detriment in any way...it's their greatest asset.
Here is exactly where your argument completely falls apart (when put up against mine, anyways). every one of my assertions was based on long term success. You can't argue that because you bolded it, underlined it, and italicized it many times. Anaheim has had 3 years of success but look like a team that is faultering towards "non-success". If this trend continues, do you think that anyone will say they have had long term success? Tampa had 2 years at or near the top of the league, and have been bottom dwellers since. Tampa had an amazing core as well, and tried to retain them all...as as you saw it unfold, their depth was damaged severely and they tanked. Carolina is another example(although more like "middle of the house" dwellers). Can anyone say that 2 or 3 years of success is long term? I am quite confident when I say "no".
As for the Staal trade, I agree to a point, but not so far as to say "all the depth they'd ever need". Staal has not played well enough to even garner another young star plus a top prospect.

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Originally Posted by JohnAlexander View Post
The funniest thing about the entire comparison is that if Boston does indeed find a way to maintain "success" over the coming years it will likely be dependent on two main things; one, the ability to replenish potential losses in the FA market (an avenue not even close to similarly available to Edmonton) or via their top tier draft choices filched from Tor via their own former top tier draft choice.

Edmonton has a chance to follow in the mold similar to Pit and have it reap true success. Or they could try in vain, as they have been, to emulate the Boston model, which even if it were to succeed on the slimmest of chances, would likely generate barely even a whiff of the cup.

But hey, it might end up keeping the business in the black. And that's what counts eh?
The funniest thing about this part of your post is you can substitute the word "Boston" with the word "Pittsburgh" and it applies perfectly ...same with any of the other teams in any other time where they may have success.

If Edmonton follows the mold of Pittsburgh, they are going to be wasting a TONNE (that is a metric one, much larger than an imperial one) of talent. They may not have the right mix - still nobody can say for sure as there are too many injuries even at this point - but nobody says that a pair of top 6 picks cannot become a dominant 1-2 centre tandem, even if it is a few years later than a Crosby/Malkin tandem takes effect. Nobody can say that the Oilers don't have a plethora of promising young players. Following the mold of Pittsburgh (if following the suggestions of most people on the board) would mean decimating the veteran presence on the team, trading away both experience and leadership, and adding to the team a long list (theoretically) of draft picks that are then expected to learn how to be a pro NHLer from our remaining 22 year olds. At least when Pittsburgh did it, it was actually needed - they had no great prospects, mostly veterans, some of whom had been part of the cup runs back in the day, others who had come over for cheap because of the low payroll possibilities the Pittsburgh had at the time. The Oilers simply aren't in the same position as Pittsburgh was. And it would make no sense to lose millions and millions of dollars (just how many games do you think CBC or TSN would pick up of the Oilers if they were a guaranteed loss?...I won't go into all the other ways they woudl lose money...selling seats isn't everything) just to take something that is possibly half way there, and decide...oh these 20 games have sucked! let's break down all the work we have done to build in the last 3 years!

And as much as people might want to argue in favour of a "pittsburgh rebuild" or the "tank for hall"...management is most likely to support my argument over yours.


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11-30-2009, 07:10 AM
  #111
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Explain this. I don't see "illogical" bases anywhere in my argument...and before you try to prove it to me, explain to me how your "logic" is 100% proven to be better than mine
I made it clear as day in my last post. If you can't see the illogical notion of being able to emulate Detroit or even Boston from the Oilers perspective then I'm better off talking to a wall. And while I'd never be so presumptuous to label "my logic" as 100% proven, it is based solidly in reason and common sense, while yours looks to be on much shakier ground.



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Again explain how this is a delusion. 90% of all hockey management, players and fans would say that the Detroit model of success is one they would all model their team after if they could. And this, strangely enough, consists of "long term dedication in scouting development".
Gee no kidding. Why don't we bump that up to 100%. To cut to the absolute core of why that doesn't matter one freaking iota, as I tried to expressly illustrate to you with my follow up questions below, what percentage chance of success do you give them working towards that end? The delusion is in thinking that it's even remotely likely to succeed, and that it's an intelligent path for the Oilers to take in their current situation. Gee, lets get a bunch of Datsyuks and Zetterbergs in the late rounds and we're set. All due to our long term dedication to scouting! We'll also pick up a bunch of Paajarvi's, Gagner's and Eberle's...they're sure to bring about success against the Tavares, Stamkos, Ovechkin, Crosby crowd.

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Here again, you are putting words in my mouth and trying to over-intellectualize things. I never said either team was more dedicated. I said one is thin in prospects and one isn't. One has developed their late draft picks into what seems will be very serviceable players for them, and one hasn't. Pittsburgh came to their success, not fully by development. That would have only taken them half way there. If you look at the team 2 years ago it is significantly different, with many players that they developed leaving for other teams (either by trade or FA). They go there by having a win now attitude, which was borne out of a feeling of desperation where they didn't know year to year if the team would exist. (you can google the articles for reference with search words Mellon Arena, City of Pittsburgh, Mario Lemieux, debt, near bankruptcy, etc.). Now this may be an unproven "reason" that I could be just creating in my illogical mind, but I am sure there are other crazy people that might agree it is a possibility. Either way, the purchased Hossa, they purchased Sykora, purchased Satan, and essentially purchased Geurin. In addition, they traded away the future for "win now", in trading away Whitney, Stone, Christensen, and others. Sure they have Tangradi and Despres, but after them, there isn't much to replace what was an extremely talented young team.
Wharrgarbl. I didn't realize it was possible to put words in your mouth when they're asking questions coming out of mine.

As to the bolded yes I'd say you're right.

Every single name you list there (except Mario, you can't buy the kind of inspiration that smile brings) played a completely periphery, non impact role in winning a Stanley Cup (the peak, pinnacle, and top measure of success in this league). It's simple logic to then deduce the core that existed throughout that entire time is what matters, what has essentially been that team through the duration, on to today, and into the future as long as it remains together and thusly primarily responsible for any and all success. As long as that core stays intact they can go buy the ghost of Tim Horton for futures and it wouldn't matter.

It's also purely illogical to state things like "what was an extremely talented young team" when they currently boast two of the games three best players and arguably the games best checking line C behind them who are all the definition of young, then arguably the games best young goalie. Not to even mention Goli, Letang and Kennedy.

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here we agree so I am not sure why you seem to be countering with this argument, because I never said anything to the contrary. If you were insinuating that a team should not rely on their 1st rounders to develop properly, as well (as in, in addition to the 5th and 6th rounders), then I actually cannot talk to you about logic anymore, because it is a lost topic with you.


And the red herrings come fast and furious. That's a logical fallacy by the way.


Quote:
The fact that you are twisting my words, and implying that I am saying things that I am not. I DID say they have two impact players...I also said that they are important players to the organization. However, did not say they have ONLY two impact players...in any of my posts. If you want a "final version" to reference in the future, i would say they have 3 true impact players in Chara, Savard and Krejci. They also have an impact player in the making in Lucic but I won't go as far to say he is an impact player yet because he has not proven it yet. They also lost an impact player in Kessel, but replaced it with great picks...for the future
Are you insane? Or are you just deliberately trying to waste my time? Either way I can't say I'm left with a lot of confidence in your reading comprehension skills. Go back and read what you wrote. When you give a specific definition of an impact player, then move forward to state that Boston has "one on the front end" and "one on the back end" it specifically implies that they only have two impact players, else logically you would include any others. The only thing that you really leave open here is for other impact players to be stated in goal (the only other "end" still left available) but even if you were to do that it would be weaseling on your original stance imo. Let alone this garbage wordplay you're now trying to trot out. If that's how you feel then fine, we can work with that moving forward.

But either way you seem to not be able to understand your own writing, are trying to compensate for that by accusing me repeatedly of misrepresentation, and throwing in a bunch of nonsensical misdirection and convolution yourself. It's not amusing and it leads me to believe there's not much positive to be gained from further discussion.



Quote:
yes...they influence those around them to play better, and make them look better to boot. At the time of that posting, I was more referencing the FA signings of impact players than those that were home grown. Since then, the conversation has gone away from that a bit.


Ok to be fair to you, that post was a little confused, simply because I wrote it with 8 pints in me. (sorry if i let it stir a bit of emotion and envoke drunken rambling)
Well I'm glad you're deigning to be fair to me. Confusion seems to be prevalent in more of your posts than just that one.


Quote:
I would venture to assert retention of Krejci is more important to the team's future in their mind than retaining Savard. so no, not the two most important...However yes they are two OF the most important players...you know why? They are both in their prime and they are both leaders teaching (and very well) the younger players what it is like to be a successful professional on a long term basis. When you have so many
You can assert all you want but the difference between Savard's new contract and that of Krejci might indicate something else. You also seem to be pretty tapped in to the Bruins dressing room. Something tells me Savard's 100 or so point pace every year is more integral to the teams success than the sweet nothings he whispers in Krejci's ear on the bench, but we can agree to disagree on this point.


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You are right. It is more about passion than about actually making profit. but without the cap, how many teams would we have competing for that championship this year? I mean you preach about logic...but logic states that without the money to pay that 8.7 million to either one of those players, there would be no cup in Pittsburgh. There might not even be a TEAM in Pittsburgh. So yes...making money matters. Period. No argument. Full stop. End of story. (please feel free to add any other comments of the same ilk to this list).
When you're talking about billionaire owners (or mega multi millionaire owners or groups) making money is purely relative. Once upon a time. Full steam ahead. Everything's an argument. Comma.

They paid those salaries. The team stayed. Shiny new arena. Likely competitive in perpetuity. $$ not a problem.

Quote:
Here is exactly where your argument completely falls apart (when put up against mine, anyways is this like the argument of Zeus? I guess I must be Prometheus then. Good thing my liver's already worse than James Bond). every one of my assertions was based on long term success. You can't argue that because you bolded it, underlined it, and italicized it many times. Anaheim has had 3 years of success but look like a team that is faultering towards "non-success". If this trend continues, do you think that anyone will say they have had long term success? Tampa had 2 years at or near the top of the league, and have been bottom dwellers since. Tampa had an amazing core as well, and tried to retain them all...as as you saw it unfold, their depth was damaged severely and they tanked. Carolina is another example(although more like "middle of the house" dwellers). Can anyone say that 2 or 3 years of success is long term? I am quite confident when I say "no".
As for the Staal trade, I agree to a point, but not so far as to say "all the depth they'd ever need". Staal has not played well enough to even garner another young star plus a top prospect.
What in the bloody blue hell does Pittsburgh have that equates their future with that of Anaheim, Tampa, or Carolina?

You seemingly have already looked into the crystal ball then and seen Boston's endless success and the doom of Pit? Despite those team finishes and current standings I highlighted in my last post. And despite how a primarily intact championship roster will somehow suddenly bow down to a proven lesser stable that's also totally capped out.

Quote:
The funniest thing about this part of your post is you can substitute the word "Boston" with the word "Pittsburgh" and it applies perfectly ...same with any of the other teams in any other time where they may have success.
Really? How many of those teams and Pit have traded Phil Kessel for a bunch of top notch futures?

Quote:
If Edmonton follows the mold of Pittsburgh, they are going to be wasting a TONNE (that is a metric one, much larger than an imperial one) of talent.
Was this a bad Dustin Penner joke?

Quote:
They may not have the right mix - still nobody can say for sure as there are too many injuries even at this point - but nobody says that a pair of top 6 picks cannot become a dominant 1-2 centre tandem, even if it is a few years later than a Crosby/Malkin tandem takes effect. Nobody can say that the Oilers don't have a plethora of promising young players.
And nobody can say that the boogeyman doesn't sleep in your closet at night. All signs point to this team sucking. A few years later than Crosby Malkin? And you're worried about wasting talent? By the time that tandem is up and running the veteran presence on this team now might be more effective at bocce ball than hockey. And lets not even talk about Gagner + friend = dominance in the same sentence as Crosby/Malkin.

Quote:
Following the mold of Pittsburgh (if following the suggestions of most people on the board) would mean decimating the veteran presence on the team, trading away both experience and leadership, and adding to the team a long list (theoretically) of draft picks that are then expected to learn how to be a pro NHLer from our remaining 22 year olds. At least when Pittsburgh did it, it was actually needed - they had no great prospects, mostly veterans, some of whom had been part of the cup runs back in the day, others who had come over for cheap because of the low payroll possibilities the Pittsburgh had at the time. The Oilers simply aren't in the same position as Pittsburgh was. And it would make no sense to lose millions and millions of dollars (just how many games do you think CBC or TSN would pick up of the Oilers if they were a guaranteed loss?...I won't go into all the other ways they woudl lose money...selling seats isn't everything) just to take something that is possibly half way there, and decide...oh these 20 games have sucked! let's break down all the work we have done to build in the last 3 years!

And as much as people might want to argue in favour of a "pittsburgh rebuild" or the "tank for hall"...management is most likely to support my argument over yours.
I don't know who's advocating what and where but from my perspective it was always common sense that the Pit mold, or any other rebuild mold, works only so far as you can best adapt it to Edmonton's current situation. That's a team that already boasts a decent crop of primarily supporting youth, who is in desperate need of elite talent, and has a similar supporting crop of veterans, some of whom can be shopped, and others retained. Personally I would try and target a retention of Souray, Horcoff, one of Penner/Hemsky & one of Grebs/Gilbert. Everyone else gets shopped for pieces that fit best at working within a projected 3 year out window of success.

You're quite right that Edmonton isn't in the same position as Pit. They're in a better one. They're as ideally set up in almost every conceivable way as one can ever be to finish their rebuild over the next couple of years.

Halfway there? What team have you been watching for three years. This squad is an abject disaster in current form. A cap team with a lottery pick. It would take a plastic surgeon the likes of which would make Julian McMahon bow down in reverence to carve this beast into a beauty in win-now mode.

Just how many games do you think TSN or CBC are eager to pick of this Oilers team now?

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11-30-2009, 07:56 AM
  #112
hemskysuncle
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ok sorry. i am done with this. i have a job.

let's either agree to disagree, which i am more than willing to do, or you can go on thinking that i am wrong and illogical. Because frankly we are arguing with two different goals in mind, and as such not seeing the valid points put forth by the other.

You like Pittsburgh's model, I don't think it is possible in Edmonton's case, as I think Boston's (however unsustainable it may seem to some) applies more in Edmonton's case than does Pittsburghs.

Next thread. Thanks.

And by the way, no hard feelings, not even about the red herrings

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11-30-2009, 12:00 PM
  #113
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Well.. If worst comes to worst we could change our philosiphy of a fast skating roster to a dead puck trap team?

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11-30-2009, 12:10 PM
  #114
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I had high hopes for Tambellini, but he seems just as delusional as the previous administration.

Let's hope the Oilers prove to be so terrible that it will force his hand at dealing some assets away. If there's any hint the Oilers have a glimmer of hope, Tambo will get back into "win now" mode.

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11-30-2009, 12:16 PM
  #115
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Originally Posted by OntOilFan View Post
I had high hopes for Tambellini, but he seems just as delusional as the previous administration.

Let's hope the Oilers prove to be so terrible that it will force his hand at dealing some assets away. If there's any hint the Oilers have a glimmer of hope, Tambo will get back into "win now" mode.
Are we the only team that has spent to the cap and is in the bottom 5?

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11-30-2009, 12:19 PM
  #116
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Originally Posted by OntOilFan View Post
I had high hopes for Tambellini, but he seems just as delusional as the previous administration.

Let's hope the Oilers prove to be so terrible that it will force his hand at dealing some assets away. If there's any hint the Oilers have a glimmer of hope, Tambo will get back into "win now" mode.
We just need a Hall or Seguin. The rest really doesn't matter (making trades, moving contracts, whatever).

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11-30-2009, 12:23 PM
  #117
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We just need a Hall or Seguin. The rest really doesn't matter (making trades, moving contracts, whatever).
Something tells me that if we had the top pick or the 2nd pick we would somehow search deep for Niinimaki's brother and draft him.

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11-30-2009, 01:52 PM
  #118
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Something tells me that if we had the top pick or the 2nd pick we would somehow search deep for Niinimaki's brother and draft him.
Hmmmmm

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11-30-2009, 02:14 PM
  #119
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Hmm if I remember correctly Datsyuk wasnt a top 5 pick either, nor was Kopitar, Alfredsson, Zetterberg or Hossa

You dont need to be drafted top 5 to be a superstar...
I dont think you NEED a top 5 pick either, but how often is it you find a Datsyuk, Zetterberg etc? Or, to get more detailed, how often is it that THIS franchise has been able to pick the diamond in the rough? Not very often. The safest bet would be to shed veteran salary, pick up some 2nd, 3rd, 4th rounders in the process, let the youngsters play, get a top 5 pick and start with a young core with some vets sprinkled in like Chicago. We have a decent crop of youngish guys, but we need to right mix.

On a somewhat related note, Potulny seems to be a good player that would fit in nicely in a 3rd line energy role. I have been quite impressed with his play since coming up.

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11-30-2009, 02:30 PM
  #120
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Until I saw his age I was like omg is he actualyl eligible for this years draft, lol.

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11-30-2009, 02:39 PM
  #121
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One thing that I think is getting missed by all of the people who think that we should "blow it up" is the effect on the team itself. Habitually losing creates a culture of losing that is hard to get rid of in any organization. It ruins the development of younger players, kills team chemistry due to bickering and infighting and creates the mentality that taking shortcuts is ok.

The fact of the matter is that the main reason this team sucks (aside from the ridiculous amount of key injuries) are that, with the exceptions of Visnosky and Souray, none of the vets are impact players or even the kind of players that can lead effectively by example. The Oilers' captain is Ethan Moreau... who was named as captain because Hemsky was too young and there were no real quality candidates on the roster. Plus, Lowe has made quite a few questionable decisions (the Pronger trade will go down as one of the worst in Oilers' history). Combined with the horrible farm situation from a few years back when the Oilers didn't even have their own farm club (the careers of players like Schremp, Dubnyk, JDD and Pouliot might have turned out a bit differently if they were playing at 19 instead of sitting on the bench in favor of the Habs' prospects), well, it wasn't really a recipe for success.

Unfortunately, there really are no short-term fixes, and I don't see this team being competitive for at least two years. Blowing it up isn't going to help - for every Pittsburgh there is a team like LA or Atlanta that sucks for years without anything to prove. There are some good players in the Oilers' system that will be contributors, and without Hemsky I'm pretty sure the Oilers will draft top five (especially if the injuries continue to pile up), so if the team drafts well and the players develop, the team should improve as the crap at the top is removed (Moreau, Pisani, I'd say Horcoff but... facepalm) as long as the team doesn't make idiotic moves like signing over-the-hill free agents that take up too much of the cap, or trade promising players for quick fixes.

So why not just get rid of the vets now? Because it puts players into positions they're not ready for. Getting lit up night after night and manhandled does nothing for a players' development. Look at Brule. The Oilers made completely the right move by sending him down last year and allowing him to work on his game (which Columbus never did) and he's shown this year that he can be a player. The key is to either add the right vets (players that can mentor the younger players like Andreychuk did in Tampa for their cup run), or to use what the team has until the younger players show that they're ready for the show - which is exactly what the team has done this year.

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11-30-2009, 02:47 PM
  #122
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I agree with this . Tambellini has accomplished a little bit more than nothing since arriving here . Because he's an outsider , he's not going to get years and years from the fans to prove himself like Lowe did either . If he doesn't start improving the roster soon I imagine the cries for his head will commence .

Why did we hire a former Canuck executive anyway ? The whale have a unblemished record of futility .... I know that's where I'm going to look for my new team leader .
this..there is a reason why Tambellini was passed over so many times in Vancouver and other places. Quite a shame Lowe didn't even consider interviewing other candidates for our most important front office job.

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11-30-2009, 02:48 PM
  #123
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Until I saw his age I was like omg is he actualyl eligible for this years draft, lol.
Darn, hey?

This year's Niinimaki in terms of risk/upside is Joonas Donskoi.

In Finnish junior: 9 GP, 9-10-19
In SM-Liiga: 9 GP, 2-0-2

The risk comes in the form of injury. He hurt his knee on the 18th during practice and will probably miss the WJC. He's still quite light at 6'0, 176 lbs due to a recent growth spurt but his battle level, creativity and hands are all terrific. If we keep the Finn pipeline going this year, he's a fine candidate- the second-best skater out of Finland this year, or at least tied with Teemu Pulkkinen (who coincidentally will also miss the WJC with injury but he's a mite and has had those problems).

He's a 45-60 pick in my books, probably as low as 75 in NHL teams', but if a team really likes him and has multiple 1sts/2nds they might gamble that he can keep on growing.

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