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11-30-2009, 03:31 PM
  #251
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Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
I may as well respond to both at once.

Again. Feel free to discuss the actual situation. 80secs left. Up one goal, on PP for duration of game, but you have one face off in own zone you have to endure.
You have Penner who you have been using a lot lately against tough opposition.(and doing well) You have Lubo and Smid available(remember theres a timeout available as well).

Do both of you guys not believe in the proper on ice management of this situation? Of putting out the right personnel in this one situation just to get the W.

Or do you also put Staios and Souray out there(who were getting burned all day) and Gags to play weak on the draw.

I'd say you go with strongsuits in that position and why not?
Vis and Smid would not be the go to guys in that situation. Smid is relatively inexperienced and Vis isnt a physical guy. Souray and Staios can both clear the front of the net if needed and are your veteran pairing that is exactly what you want out there to protect the lead. Gagner blew his assignment. Period. He stood there staring at his broken stick and left his man wide open.

Could it be argued that Gagner was a bad choice out there? Sure. Although Horcoff cant seem to take face-offs any more so I guess that leaves you with Brule, Sully, or possible Penner. If it were someone other than you arguing the point it might hold more water than it does.

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11-30-2009, 03:39 PM
  #252
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
I may as well respond to both at once.

Again. Feel free to discuss the actual situation. 80secs left. Up one goal, on PP for duration of game, but you have one face off in own zone you have to endure.
You have Penner who you have been using a lot lately against tough opposition.(and doing well) You have Lubo and Smid available(remember theres a timeout available as well).

Do both of you guys not believe in the proper on ice management of this situation? Of putting out the right personnel in this one situation just to get the W.

Or do you also put Staios and Souray out there(who were getting burned all day) and Gags to play weak on the draw.

I'd say you go with strongsuits in that position and why not?

ps Souray has been horrible own zone this year. Really the weakest card to play in an ownzone draw. Might want to look that up.
Why even respond to us? It's a phony debate, no rebuttal necessary.

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11-30-2009, 03:40 PM
  #253
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Quote:
Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
Vis and Smid would not be the go to guys in that situation. Smid is relatively inexperienced and Vis isnt a physical guy. Souray and Staios can both clear the front of the net if needed and are your veteran pairing that is exactly what you want out there to protect the lead. Gagner blew his assignment. Period. He stood there staring at his broken stick and left his man wide open.

Could it be argued that Gagner was a bad choice out there? Sure. Although Horcoff cant seem to take face-offs any more so I guess that leaves you with Brule, Sully, or possible Penner. If it were someone other than you arguing the point it might hold more water than it does.
Well several other people in the thread have questioned the same thing.

Souray post concussion has really been a nightmare. You don't need to trust me on that and can research the numbers yourself. He's not moving traffic as much as standing still, chasing spots, or looking confused. Really he likely shouldn't be playing right now. Its the last player I'd have out on that draw. Souray was just awful that game. Everybody noted it. -4 in the contest notes it.

The Shootout list was also a point of contention by many. That was even brought up as strange in the broadcast.

We agree with Gagner though. That was just ugly. Boys against men stuff.

But simple yes or no question. With Penner taking the draw and, Smid and Lubo out there do you think we get scored on right there?

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11-30-2009, 03:42 PM
  #254
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Originally Posted by theranfordflop View Post
Why even respond to us? It's a phony debate, no rebuttal necessary.
I'll keep that in mind then.

Not sure how its phony as its an actual game management decision were talking about.

More important to rotate lines than properly match I guess.

Its only the game at stake. Theres several more..

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11-30-2009, 03:46 PM
  #255
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
Well several other people in the thread have questioned the same thing.

Souray post concussion has really been a nightmare. You don't need to trust me on that and can research the numbers yourself. He's not moving traffic as much as standing still, chasing spots, or looking confused. Really he likely shouldn't be playing right now. Its the last player I'd have out on that draw. Souray was just awful that game. Everybody noted it. -4 in the contest notes it.

The Shootout list was also a point of contention by many. That was even brought up as strange in the broadcast.

We agree with Gagner though. That was just ugly. Boys against men stuff.

But simple yes or no question. With Penner taking the draw and, Smid and Lubo out there do you think we get scored on right there?
ftr I was aghast at the shootout lineup myself. I also shudder at Gagner taking such an important draw. Hindsight is 20-20 and I would prefer a different center out there in that situation and considering how bad the tandem had been all game, it would have been better to have the other two out there as well, but maybe they just got off a long shift?

If we would have called a time out to rest them and send them back out there then you may as well have wiped Steve and Shelly's faces with used toilet paper. They would not have been pleased and you could have created an ongoing problem with those guys by doing that.

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11-30-2009, 03:54 PM
  #256
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Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
ftr I was aghast at the shootout lineup myself. I also shudder at Gagner taking such an important draw. Hindsight is 20-20 and I would prefer a different center out there in that situation and considering how bad the tandem had been all game, it would have been better to have the other two out there as well, but maybe they just got off a long shift?

If we would have called a time out to rest them and send them back out there then you may as well have wiped Steve and Shelly's faces with used toilet paper. They would not have been pleased and you could have created an ongoing problem with those guys by doing that.
I thank you for the reasonable exchange and answer. Thanks as well for considering my points.

You could have something there too with Staios and Souray but I actually think(you might not like this) is its a case of favorites with Quinn and Souray. Lubo and Smid are clearly the best D pair this club has right now and Souray, who has been horrible this year, leads the team in TOI/G.

I wouldn't be saying this if there were any indication Souray could handle the time right now. I'd be dressing Arsene right now and I'm serious.

Really, and I'm not going out on a limb with this, but this is not Souray, this is post concussion syndrome kicking in bigtime. He's never been this bad. But it should be duly noted behind the bench if I can spot it here from the cheapboxes

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11-30-2009, 03:57 PM
  #257
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For the most part, judging shootout choices after the fact is purely about showing off 20/20 hindsight. It's a crapshoot, really.

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11-30-2009, 03:58 PM
  #258
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
I thank you for the reasonable exchange and answer. Thanks as well for considering my points.

You could have something there too with Staios and Souray but I actually think(you might not like this) is its a case of favorites with Quinn and Souray. Lubo and Smid are clearly the best D pair this club has right now and Souray, who has been horrible this year, leads the team in TOI/G.

I wouldn't be saying this if there were any indication Souray could handle the time right now. I'd be dressing Arsene right now and I'm serious.

Really, and I'm not going out on a limb with this, but this is not Souray, this is post concussion syndrome kicking in bigtime. He's never been this bad. But it should be duly noted behind the bench if I can spot it here from the cheapboxes
Or maybe he needs some games to get back into game shape? Dont forget he didnt even exercise for over a month. He could be wary of contact but if he is, I havent noticed it. Unlike Gilbert and O'Sullivan of course.

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11-30-2009, 04:02 PM
  #259
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Giant Moo View Post
For the most part, judging shootout choices after the fact is purely about showing off 20/20 hindsight. It's a crapshoot, really.
ftr like many posters here I've questioned the use of Gagner and Penner on the shootout this year each time.

Gagner has lost any confidence he had in this that was there in the first year.

Penner although moving mountains, this is not likely to be his skillset. The groans were audible in the GDT in realtime when either was selected.

Brule and Potulny were showing the hothands. Give em a chance.

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11-30-2009, 04:12 PM
  #260
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
ftr like many posters here I've questioned the use of Gagner and Penner on the shootout this year each time.

Gagner has lost any confidence he had in this that was there in the first year.

Penner although moving mountains, this is not likely to be his skillset. The groans were audible in the GDT in realtime when either was selected.

Brule and Potulny were showing the hothands. Give em a chance.
Like he said though it's a crapshoot. Penner got the job done and had Nabokov beat. He just ended up getting robbed.

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11-30-2009, 04:28 PM
  #261
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
ftr like many posters here I've questioned the use of Gagner and Penner on the shootout this year each time.

Gagner has lost any confidence he had in this that was there in the first year.

Penner although moving mountains, this is not likely to be his skillset. The groans were audible in the GDT in realtime when either was selected.

Brule and Potulny were showing the hothands. Give em a chance.
I wonder what your reaction would have been if Quinn used those two and they failed to score?

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11-30-2009, 04:33 PM
  #262
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Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
I wonder what your reaction would have been if Quinn used those two and they failed to score?
I can guess.

Fact is that on any given shootout attempt, the odds are generally with the keeper. I don't know if there are many players over 50% (with, say, more than 2 attempts).

If the selection of the choices is consistently done -- however it's done -- then that's the most important thing, IMO, especially from the players' POV.

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11-30-2009, 04:44 PM
  #263
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Quote:
Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
I wonder what your reaction would have been if Quinn used those two and they failed to score?
j/k aside players have their good roles.

Brule strikes as somebody with speed and a shot that looks good on a break. Same with Potulny. That was a beauty turnover goal he created on the weekend. Looks like good hands. I'm pretty high on Potulny from what I'm seeing.

I even think a guy like Nilsson can fit on a PP somewhere. If somebody is lacking a limited specialist.

But heres another. Moreau. Frankly I've seen him scoring on breakaways about 10 times. Would he be any good at the shootout? Maybe.


Having said all that I do realize its on the players too and their comfort or confidence in the shootout possibly gets discussed. Some players I would imagine would be very uncomfortable being put out on the shootout if they were not asked how they felt about it.

ps But I get the feeling Potulny would shovel the Rexall parking lot by hand just to be here. Good player, great attitude.


Last edited by Replacement: 11-30-2009 at 04:55 PM.
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Old
11-30-2009, 05:00 PM
  #264
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Giant Moo View Post
I can guess.

Fact is that on any given shootout attempt, the odds are generally with the keeper. I don't know if there are many players over 50% (with, say, more than 2 attempts).

If the selection of the choices is consistently done -- however it's done -- then that's the most important thing, IMO, especially from the players' POV.
The best percentages are in the 30-35% range (I am talking about players with multiple attempts)

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11-30-2009, 05:03 PM
  #265
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The best percentages are in the 30-35% range (I am talking about players with multiple attempts)
I thought as much. You have better luck at the Roulette table.

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11-30-2009, 05:23 PM
  #266
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Pavelski is over 50% with 26 attempts?

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11-30-2009, 05:30 PM
  #267
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Originally Posted by hockeyaddict101 View Post
The best percentages are in the 30-35% range (I am talking about players with multiple attempts)
Actually this is wrong. The league average would be around that. Not the "best percentages"

ftr heres the Oilers overall success in shootouts the past few years.

This year: 26.3%

Last year: 37.9%
07-08 36.9%


Hey perhaps its worthwhile to actually think about who your putting out there any particular game.
Looks like MacT's hot hand theory wasn't so bad.

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11-30-2009, 05:42 PM
  #268
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
Actually this is wrong. The league average would be around that. Not the "best percentages"

ftr heres the Oilers overall success in shootouts the past few years.

This year: 26.3%

Last year: 37.9%
07-08 36.9%


Hey perhaps its worthwhile to actually think about who your putting out there any particular game.
Looks like MacT's hot hand theory wasn't so bad.
Ya, that Gilbert selection was gold!

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11-30-2009, 06:07 PM
  #269
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Shootout as a Crapshoot...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Six in O6 View Post
Pavelski is over 50% with 26 attempts?
Some numbers...

Top Shootout guys:
Vyacheslav Kozlov: 42 attempts, 57.1%
Joe Pavelski: 26 attempts, 57.7%
Jussi Jokinen: 47 attempts, 55.3%
Wojtek Wolski: 31 attempts, 54.8%
Erik Christensen: 31 attempts, 54.8%
Ales Kotalik: 39 attempts, 53.8%

Top players and the Shootout:
Alex Ovechkin: 42 attempts, 28.6%
Ilya Kovalchuk: 31 attempts, 22.6%
Rick Nash: 40 attempts, 37.5%
Sidney Crosby: 42 attempts, 38.1%

Oddities:
Jack Johnson: 11 attempts, 54.5% (a defenseman over 50% convert ratio?!)
Jason Strudwick: 1 attempt, 100% (WTF?! Strudwick?!)
Kris Letang: 20 attempts, 40% (another defenseman, playing on a stacked Pitsburgh, and he has 20 attempts?!)

Some Oilers numbers:
Shawn Horcoff: 9 attempts, 55.6% (Should we have Horcoff shoot more??)
Sam Gagner: 29 attempts, 27.5% (Almost Kovalchuk bad...)
Robert Nilsson: 14 attempts, 50%
Ales Hemsky: 46 attempts, 34.8% (Second most shoot-out attempts in league history)
Patrick O'Sullivan: 24 attempts, 45.8%
Fernando Pisani: 13 attempts, 46.2%

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11-30-2009, 06:32 PM
  #270
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
I thank you for the reasonable exchange and answer. Thanks as well for considering my points.

You could have something there too with Staios and Souray but I actually think(you might not like this) is its a case of favorites with Quinn and Souray. Lubo and Smid are clearly the best D pair this club has right now and Souray, who has been horrible this year, leads the team in TOI/G.

I wouldn't be saying this if there were any indication Souray could handle the time right now. I'd be dressing Arsene right now and I'm serious.

Really, and I'm not going out on a limb with this, but this is not Souray, this is post concussion syndrome kicking in bigtime. He's never been this bad. But it should be duly noted behind the bench if I can spot it here from the cheapboxes
I do agree that Souray's last two games have been horrid, but in the games he'd played in up to that point he was fine.
As I said earlier Souray and Staios should never be paired together, I'm not taking a shot at Staios here, but those two together are a disaster waiting to happen. They're decent against the cycle, but are way to easily exposed by speed and quickness, and neither are great at starting the break out/ have a strong first pass.

Best thing they could do is merge the 2 worst defensives pairs and balance them.

Souray-Gilbert
Gerbeshov-Staios


Last edited by Dazed and Confused: 11-30-2009 at 06:49 PM.
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12-01-2009, 12:06 AM
  #271
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I liked Horc in the shootouts a few years ago. He hit like 4 in a row, so that kind of padded his stats but he has a good shoot first ask questions later mentality.

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12-01-2009, 12:33 AM
  #272
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Six in O6 View Post
I liked Horc in the shootouts a few years ago. He hit like 4 in a row, so that kind of padded his stats but he has a good shoot first ask questions later mentality.
SO goals don't count in stats.

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12-01-2009, 02:04 AM
  #273
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Originally Posted by Six in O6 View Post
I liked Horc in the shootouts a few years ago. He hit like 4 in a row, so that kind of padded his stats but he has a good shoot first ask questions later mentality.
I did too. But I doubt he'll ever reach that level of play again. His shoulder surgery has probably ruined him.

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