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Oilers In Need Of Shakeup? Plus 30 Thoughts.

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Old
12-01-2009, 11:54 PM
  #76
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Originally Posted by dashingsilverfox View Post
His early season performance was based on a 20% shooting percentage.

The previous three seasons his % was 11, 9 and 7.

I'd wager the wheels would have fallen off his season fairly rapidly even without his illness.
The two seasons though where he hit over 30 goals his shooting percentage 19.4 and 16 percent. Seems to me a player that just has the occasional balls out season, and this would be in line with those other two.

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12-01-2009, 11:59 PM
  #77
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So, I'm curious. When do you think the epiphany occurred?

It had to be after the Khabibulin and Heatley pursuits. Was it when Heatley finally said no?
Before. Heatley is a premium asset, long or short term. (BTW, I'm glad the deal didn't happen, but I don't think Penner's season was predictable).

You (and clearly lots of others) believe Khabibulin will break down or turn crappy by the time his contract ends, so you figure its bad long term pain for pointless short term gain. On the other hand, I think that if Roloson can be OK at 39 and 40, there's a good chance a premium goalie like Khabibulin can be good at that age too. A pretty good Roli this year or next is not solving a long term problem. A good Khabibulin in 3 or 4 years is.

Also, if the concern is that Khabibulin will be chronically injured by the end of his contract, the LTIR will handle that and yes, I think the Oilers thought of that when they made the deal. It is clear by now that the Oilers HAVE TO overpay for UFAs. I think the term deal with the LTIR out is a pretty clever and cheaper way of differentiating the Oilers in the marketplace for a top UFA.

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12-02-2009, 12:15 AM
  #78
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Originally Posted by Datsun View Post
The two seasons though where he hit over 30 goals his shooting percentage 19.4 and 16 percent. Seems to me a player that just has the occasional balls out season, and this would be in line with those other two.
Fair enough. But the trend has been down not up.

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12-02-2009, 12:17 AM
  #79
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Before. Heatley is a premium asset, long or short term. (BTW, I'm glad the deal didn't happen, but I don't think Penner's season was predictable).

You (and clearly lots of others) believe Khabibulin will break down or turn crappy by the time his contract ends, so you figure its bad long term pain for pointless short term gain. On the other hand, I think that if Roloson can be OK at 39 and 40, there's a good chance a premium goalie like Khabibulin can be good at that age too. A pretty good Roli this year or next is not solving a long term problem. A good Khabibulin in 3 or 4 years is.

Also, if the concern is that Khabibulin will be chronically injured by the end of his contract, the LTIR will handle that and yes, I think the Oilers thought of that when they made the deal. It is clear by now that the Oilers HAVE TO overpay for UFAs. I think the term deal with the LTIR out is a pretty clever and cheaper way of differentiating the Oilers in the marketplace for a top UFA.
The issue with Khabibulin is his injury history. Bottom line.

I think you're giving the Oilers far too much credit for taking that into consideration and I would be very surprised if LTIR is a solution.

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12-02-2009, 12:28 AM
  #80
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Tambellini's ok, getting O'Sullivan + Kotalik was decent asset management, the Heatley trade was a good one at the time.

The Khabibulin deal is at least 1 year too long.

I think he has unfortunately some Vancouver-itis in him, as far as being a GM that's way too passive.

Maybe though the injuries will finally get management off the back of the GMs, because I feel like there probably has been pressure on both Lowe and Tamby to "win now". Finally the franchise has a set of circumstances that is really forcing at least a quick tank job prior to the All-Star break.

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12-02-2009, 01:05 AM
  #81
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Originally Posted by dashingsilverfox View Post
Fair enough. But the trend has been down not up.
Probably won't hit 30 though. Hopefully he puts up some goals and gives himself some trade worth before the deadline. Getting a 4th rounder for nothing would be nice.

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12-02-2009, 01:06 AM
  #82
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Originally Posted by dashingsilverfox View Post
If you have 6 small, semi skilled, defensively suspect forwards already on the roster, is adding another one really a great idea?
As Lowetide mentioned today, we're the kings of this, but you and he overlook another deficiency: footspeed.

Everyone here knows I applauded the Omark pick. I said right afterwards that it was indicative of a change in culture among our scouts and that we needed more like it to balance out the coke machines we tended to draft in the Lowe/KP era. It was also I who trumpeted Eberle prior to the Draft.

But, finally, it's getting a little ridiculous.

-Gagner
-O'Sullivan
-Comrie
-Nilsson
-Eberle
-Nash
-Omark
-Rajala
-Cornet

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12-02-2009, 01:13 AM
  #83
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A little late to the debate, but my two cents.

I think Tambellini understands the issues on this team - you can see it written in the frustration on his face when he speaks to media.

However, understanding the issues is different than taking action about them. And for whatever reason, he's paralyzed to the point of inaction at the moment. I guess we could give management the benefit of the doubt and say it's patience - but after years of failed promises and coming up short, it's extremely hard for the general fan to believe in that particular optic.

Until someone has a time machine - mine's broken - and can travel to 1.5 years in the future to see what plans (if any) unfold, this will remain a contentious issue. It makes for good discussion, though.

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12-02-2009, 01:34 AM
  #84
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Probably won't hit 30 though. Hopefully he puts up some goals and gives himself some trade worth before the deadline. Getting a 4th rounder for nothing would be nice.
Kotalik for a second rounder?

Just saying.

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12-02-2009, 01:35 AM
  #85
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A little late to the debate, but my two cents.

I think Tambellini understands the issues on this team - you can see it written in the frustration on his face when he speaks to media.

However, understanding the issues is different than taking action about them. And for whatever reason, he's paralyzed to the point of inaction at the moment. I guess we could give management the benefit of the doubt and say it's patience - but after years of failed promises and coming up short, it's extremely hard for the general fan to believe in that particular optic.

Until someone has a time machine - mine's broken - and can travel to 1.5 years in the future to see what plans (if any) unfold, this will remain a contentious issue. It makes for good discussion, though.
I guess I'm a cynic here ( who would have guessed

I don't think he gets it.

If he goes whale hunting again next summer, I'm done.

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12-02-2009, 01:38 AM
  #86
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So here's a thought:

June 25th, 2011.

Let's say the Oilers do the usual and end up with the 18th pick. The Isles are at the tail-end of their rebuild having drafted 9th, 7th, 1st and wherever they pick this year.

The 2011 Draft looks to be something like this year- a clear top three (Adam Larsson, Sean Couturier, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins) and after that a steep drop-off in terms of impact and time to NHL.

The Isles are picking 4th or 5th. Wang is in a crunch, because his team has not been close to the playoffs since 2006-07 and has not been a factor in them since Pat LaFontaine.

Needing a marketable product and knowing a pick outside the top three doesn't help for at least two years, Snow calls up Tambo and says he'll take Penner, Hemsky and Souray off our hands for his pick. They'd have the cap room to do it and that probably makes them a playoff team right then.

Knowing we could sign only one of them but lose both if traded, do you trade Penner, Souray and Hemsky prior to their final contract year for a top-five pick in 2011?

The Isles would actually be scary on paper:

Penner-Tavares-Hemsky
Moulson-Bailey-Okposo
Joensuu-Nielsen-Hunter

Streit-Souray
x-x
de Haan-Hamonic

DiPietro


Meanwhile, we'd be in full rebuild mode. A top 10 pick this year, a top four pick in '11, maybe a first overall in '12, plus our young core.

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12-02-2009, 01:39 AM
  #87
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Originally Posted by dashingsilverfox View Post
I guess I'm a cynic here ( who would have guessed

I don't think he gets it.

If he goes whale hunting again next summer, I'm done.
I think part of the problem is that Katz is putting tons of pressure on management to make win-now moves. Obviously Tambellini is still his own man, and it doesn't completely absolve him from all blame, but I'm just throwing that idea out there. It's just another added wrinkle to an already complex situation.

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12-02-2009, 01:46 AM
  #88
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Well the conversation is finally coming around to 'talent' versus coaching. This team has been poorly shaped for some time with 30 somethings and kids. Overspending on average talent and inability to identify and draft impact players when available (see 2003 Draft). Management has been stuck in spin cycle and overrating its talent for years. GM Tambellini stood pat on a roster exposed to have poor habits, bad decision making, and overrated skill. Now Pat Quinn gets to coach these underachievers and live through their soft, erratic play.

In need of a shakeup? Duh.

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12-02-2009, 01:47 AM
  #89
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Originally Posted by Cloned View Post
A little late to the debate, but my two cents.

I think Tambellini understands the issues on this team - you can see it written in the frustration on his face when he speaks to media.

However, understanding the issues is different than taking action about them. And for whatever reason, he's paralyzed to the point of inaction at the moment. I guess we could give management the benefit of the doubt and say it's patience - but after years of failed promises and coming up short, it's extremely hard for the general fan to believe in that particular optic.

Until someone has a time machine - mine's broken - and can travel to 1.5 years in the future to see what plans (if any) unfold, this will remain a contentious issue. It makes for good discussion, though.
Really patience?

I'll be honest, I want to believe that, but what is one scapegoat, the one trump card, management has used in the past to justify things. Horc's contract, failure to reach playoffs, slump's, alot of things.

At some point it is legitimate excuse, like now for example, but they push that card in any agenda they can.

I'd hope the inaction is patience, but from what we've known, I think their line of thinking maybe along the lines of, "We have a playoff calibre team, their just injured" type deal. Which makes it quite frustrating.

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12-02-2009, 01:48 AM
  #90
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I think part of the problem is that Katz is putting tons of pressure on management to make win-now moves. Obviously Tambellini is still his own man, and it doesn't completely absolve him from all blame, but I'm just throwing that idea out there. It's just another added wrinkle to an already complex situation.
I'm sure you're right.

It's a dynamic that is pooching the team big time.

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12-02-2009, 01:50 AM
  #91
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Well the conversation is finally coming around to 'talent' versus coaching. This team has been poorly shaped for some time with 30 somethings and kids. Overspending on average talent and inability to identify and draft impact players when available (see 2003 Draft). Management has been stuck in spin cycle and overrating its talent for years. GM Tambellini stood pat on a roster exposed to have poor habits, bad decision making, and overrated skill. Now Pat Quinn gets to coach these underachievers and live through their soft, erratic play.

In need of a shakeup? Duh.
This post is everything you need to know about your Edmonton Oilers. Period.

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12-02-2009, 01:59 AM
  #92
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Originally Posted by Behind Enemy Lines View Post
Well the conversation is finally coming around to 'talent' versus coaching. This team has been poorly shaped for some time with 30 somethings and kids. Overspending on average talent and inability to identify and draft impact players when available (see 2003 Draft). Management has been stuck in spin cycle and overrating its talent for years. GM Tambellini stood pat on a roster exposed to have poor habits, bad decision making, and overrated skill. Now Pat Quinn gets to coach these underachievers and live through their soft, erratic play.

In need of a shakeup? Duh.
Don't get me wrong - coaching was still a huge issue with this team last year.

Why do you think these players developed or maintained the bad habits they got from junior in the first place?

The team needed a coaching change, amongst other things. Coaching was just as big of a problem as roster imbalance imo.


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12-02-2009, 02:00 AM
  #93
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Behind Enemy Lines View Post
Well the conversation is finally coming around to 'talent' versus coaching. This team has been poorly shaped for some time with 30 somethings and kids. Overspending on average talent and inability to identify and draft impact players when available (see 2003 Draft). Management has been stuck in spin cycle and overrating its talent for years. GM Tambellini stood pat on a roster exposed to have poor habits, bad decision making, and overrated skill. Now Pat Quinn gets to coach these underachievers and live through their soft, erratic play.

In need of a shakeup? Duh.
Wow a great analysis in a nutshell, does this resonate with management?

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12-02-2009, 02:01 AM
  #94
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Really patience?

I'll be honest, I want to believe that, but what is one scapegoat, the one trump card, management has used in the past to justify things. Horc's contract, failure to reach playoffs, slump's, alot of things.

At some point it is legitimate excuse, like now for example, but they push that card in any agenda they can.

I'd hope the inaction is patience, but from what we've known, I think their line of thinking maybe along the lines of, "We have a playoff calibre team, their just injured" type deal. Which makes it quite frustrating.
I don't believe it myself, but at the same time Tambellini has held his cards much closer to the vest than Lowe did. It's hard to tell exactly what he's thinking so all we have are his actions to go on. And so far he's been cyptic and contradictory at best.

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12-02-2009, 04:59 AM
  #95
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I disagree with both Duchatchek and Sir Elliott. Particularly speaking to Freidman's suggestions, he speaks of dumping basically the only decent large contracts the Oilers have. I mean, why would the Oilers get rid of Penner and Hemsky, when they have their (assumiing things continue as they have this year so far) two top scorers for around 4 mil per, while other teams have to pay up to 3 million more per season for the same production? Souray is a possibility, but if you ask me, he brings more to the table than just the big shot he is known for, and after about 10 more games he will be back to normal. As for Khabby, he is the only stability we have in net right now, and despite the fact you could replace him for about 1 million less, there are not so many SC winning goaltenders out there, which makes it a premium. it is unfortunate that the Oilers could do better without those other "immovable" ones (namely Horcoff, Visnovsky ) and Gilbert, who could be moved, but is not in high demand right now, most likely.

The place where the Oilers have to shed is in their mid-range contracts. Their high contract players are, for the most part, or to an arguable extent, earning their pay. It is the people that aren't contributing anything at all, or at least not nearly anything comaprable to their salaries that should be let go. That, in itself, should solve about3 or 4 "problems".
To me, it is quite obvious that:
1. Potulny is much more effective at .6 million cap hit than Nilsson at 2 mill.
2. Ryan Stone is much more effective at . 6 million cap hit than Moreau at 2 mill
3. Chorney is just as effective at .95 cap hit as Staios at 2.7 (or possibly even Gilbert at 4 mill)

With those changes (trade them all for picks, even if 5th rounders), you lose some "leadership", but reset the culture, to an extent, and get better bang for your buck. Unless the Oilers are cursed, there should not be too many injuries the rest of the season, however, if there are, it has already been proven that the replacements from Spr are not slouches compared to those already in the lineup.

You create between 3.5 and 6 million in cap space, find one or two cheap solid veterans in the offseason (faceoff centre!!) and your cap issues are not so huge anymore. The key in the cap world is bang for buck. that is what the oilers are struggling with...many got contracts as rewards for the cup run. Unfortunately it has put the oilers in crutches ever since. How is it that Lowe could hand out so many 4 or 5 year contracts to such "replaceable" players??

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12-02-2009, 08:49 AM
  #96
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Originally Posted by hemskysuncle View Post
I disagree with both Duchatchek and Sir Elliott. Particularly speaking to Freidman's suggestions, he speaks of dumping basically the only decent large contracts the Oilers have. I mean, why would the Oilers get rid of Penner and Hemsky, when they have their (assumiing things continue as they have this year so far) two top scorers for around 4 mil per, while other teams have to pay up to 3 million more per season for the same production? Souray is a possibility, but if you ask me, he brings more to the table than just the big shot he is known for, and after about 10 more games he will be back to normal. As for Khabby, he is the only stability we have in net right now, and despite the fact you could replace him for about 1 million less, there are not so many SC winning goaltenders out there, which makes it a premium. it is unfortunate that the Oilers could do better without those other "immovable" ones (namely Horcoff, Visnovsky ) and Gilbert, who could be moved, but is not in high demand right now, most likely.

The place where the Oilers have to shed is in their mid-range contracts. Their high contract players are, for the most part, or to an arguable extent, earning their pay. It is the people that aren't contributing anything at all, or at least not nearly anything comaprable to their salaries that should be let go. That, in itself, should solve about3 or 4 "problems".
To me, it is quite obvious that:
1. Potulny is much more effective at .6 million cap hit than Nilsson at 2 mill.
2. Ryan Stone is much more effective at . 6 million cap hit than Moreau at 2 mill
3. Chorney is just as effective at .95 cap hit as Staios at 2.7 (or possibly even Gilbert at 4 mill)

With those changes (trade them all for picks, even if 5th rounders), you lose some "leadership", but reset the culture, to an extent, and get better bang for your buck. Unless the Oilers are cursed, there should not be too many injuries the rest of the season, however, if there are, it has already been proven that the replacements from Spr are not slouches compared to those already in the lineup.

You create between 3.5 and 6 million in cap space, find one or two cheap solid veterans in the offseason (faceoff centre!!) and your cap issues are not so huge anymore. The key in the cap world is bang for buck. that is what the oilers are struggling with...many got contracts as rewards for the cup run. Unfortunately it has put the oilers in crutches ever since. How is it that Lowe could hand out so many 4 or 5 year contracts to such "replaceable" players??
Visnovsky isn't immovable, nor should the Oilers move him. He's an excellent defenceman at a reasonable salary. He's neither underpaid nor overpaid and he's very good.

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12-02-2009, 09:26 AM
  #97
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7 points isn't out of it with a month left, let a lone now.

I agree though, if they do something, it won't be untill the deadline.
make no mistake about it.... we all need to be clear on this point....

the oilers are not making the playoffs this year, not by a long shot

the likelihood of the oilers getting the (at minimum) 68 additional points they will need to make the playoffs is essentially non-existent... its simply not happening, not a chance... even if hemsky wasn't hurt, they *still* wouldn't have a chance.... with hemsky out for the season, the idea of the oilers making the playoffs is laughable

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12-02-2009, 09:42 AM
  #98
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I think its hard to defend Tambo's record thus far.

As Much as I liked Cole the O' Sullivan deal is I think a good move going forward.

The Kotalik acquisition I'm still shaking my head at. Especially considering we acquire the player and then have no subsequent interest. Is this Tambo's version of the Nedved chacha?

Khabibulin. Why? What need that the team had did this service? We gave up Roli, a perfectly adequate goalie, and are now paying 1.25M more longterm for Khabi, who is arguably less healthy than Roli. Islanders get Roli for 2 yrs(right time frame) and Roli doing fantastic on the island.
I can't comprehend how a GM, who inherited a team thats already cash strapped, and with gaping holes in the lineup, somehow figures its necessary to "fill" one of the areas that was fine, and spend more money doing that.
Friedman in the link is indicating Khabi is one of the albatross contracts. I don't disagree. Again it seems the last thing a prudent GM would do given this situation is add another longterm untradeable. With no pressing need to make that move in the first place.

Comrie-Already enough been stated but redundant talent and really on a team of developing young players and on a team that has had attitude and psyche problems THIS is the forward you select? Was Anson Carter busy this year..

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12-02-2009, 10:38 AM
  #99
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Agreed. At the time of the signing I was hoping that Nilsson would be shipped out. This way you're upgrading your team at a lower cost...nothing wrong with that.

But yet Nilsson is still here - and likely won't play on Thursday.
I think what DSF is getting at is the Comrie signing shows evidence that there is no recognition of what this team needs or plan to fill holes and make the team better. We already have a bunch of small forwards, the last thing we needed was another one.

Maybe a bigger, more physical type of forward, preferably a center who is good on the dot should have been on the agenda this summer. Instead we got the same thing we get every year, chase big name, big name says no, we make some other questionable move to show the paying customers we are doing something. I take no comfort in our new "GM". Doesn't look much different from the old one.

Sorry, guess this has been covered rather extensively.


Last edited by I am the Liquor: 12-02-2009 at 11:22 AM.
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12-02-2009, 11:49 AM
  #100
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Visnovsky isn't immovable, nor should the Oilers move him. He's an excellent defenceman at a reasonable salary. He's neither underpaid nor overpaid and he's very good.
Which would you rather have in 3 years? A 36 year old defenseman or the assets you could get for him by trading to a contender at the deadline?

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