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Cameron Abney vs. the 3rd round

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Old
12-04-2009, 06:29 AM
  #1
hfboardsuser
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Cameron Abney vs. the 3rd round

The selection of Cameron Abney at 82 was an extremely controversial, and frankly, disappointing pick. Most called it then and while I hate to be 'that guy' with the Draft just six months ago, initial impressions seem to hold up.

The pick was sold to us this way:

"(WHL Scout) Bob Brown had an extreme passion for him. He's a big kid who had a huge growth spurt in the last couple of years. A kid that has to improve skating, obviously, when you grow that much you're going to have to improve your skating. We needed to try and get some physicality and he's a young guy who we think is going to be a huge advantage for us."

Let's take a look at the numbers:

2008-09 Stats: 48 GP, 1-3-4, 103 PIM
2009-10 Stats: 24 GP, 1-3-4, 43 PIM

Interestingly enough, three of the four following picks are players who are in the WHL this year:

83. D Kevin Connauton (VAN)- 28 GP, 12-16-28, 39 PIM
85. C Cody Eakin (Washington)- 30 GP, 25-16-41, 33 PIM
86. D Ryan Button (Boston)- 30 GP, 0-17-17, 21 PIM

Whether by choice or not, Abney's gone just five times this year. Stortini also saw his PIM totals drop post-Draft, but he also broke 20 goals- something Abney looks in no danger of doing.

Sure, an NCAA transplant, a one-dimensional finisher and a smaller two-way D don't meet a team need for toughness... but we and everyone else knew Abney wasn't going to help this team for at least three years anyway. Our scouting staff presumably saw Eakin, Button and Linden Vey (96th, 31 GP 12-21-33) when looking out for Abney, not to mention the other kids taken in between.

What, then, convinced them this was a good idea?

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12-04-2009, 06:33 AM
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Eternity Is Now
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oh the thought of us having cody eakin in our system as well...i think we definitely missed something there!

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12-04-2009, 07:16 AM
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Not 100% sure, but I do know during the Oilers training camp, Abney looked pretty good. Similar to Willliam Quist a couple of years ago when he looked so damn good you thought he was going to have a good year to follow up after training camp, to be disappointed by a terrible performance.

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12-04-2009, 09:10 AM
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BPA!!!
(Biggest Player Available)

This is also why you take an average sized prospect like MAP over an ineffective shrimp like that also-ran Zach Parise.

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12-04-2009, 10:01 AM
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Joe Hallenback
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I would hazzard to guess many people on these boards have never seen Abney play live in the WHL nor have they probably seen any of those players live either. I can give you my view of all of these players as I have seen them on multiple occasions live this year

Eakin - I was surprised he fell to the 3rd round but not really shocked. You have to understand something about the draft. It is full of guys like Eakin every year who are small(yes he is small)but who can score. He is fast but not explosive and he can get knocked off the puck at times. But he can finish at the junior level and he is a pretty good penalty killer. It is hard to say if his scoring will ever translate to the NHL. If you want to know a similar player think Liam Reddox

Connauton and Button are both very good with the puck..on the powerplay. Both guys are minus players and are not the best defenders 5 on 5. I don't think right now either guy will ever be strong enough to be effective in the NHL. They are more like power play specialists then out and out complete defensemen. More Marc-Andre Bergeron's than Duncan Keith's.

Abney - I knew he was going to get drafted. He was a bonifide heavy weight and he was a good skater for being "just a goon". He is a big time hitter and is feared when he steps on the ice. He can and does generate scoring chances and he is clearly working on that part of his game this year. He really isn't going to fight that much this year because quite frankly he doesn't get many takers.

I guess it boils down to what you think drafted players are going to do.

Do you think Eakin will be a top 6 guy who can score 30 a year in the NHL? Or is he going to be AHL fodder heading back and forth and playing a bottom 6 role and maybe doing some penalty killing?

Are Connauton and Button guys that will log 20+ minutes a night and produce? Or are they guys who will put numbers in the AHL or head to Europe but never really adjust to the NHL?

Is Abney going to be the next Milan Lucic? Or is going to be an AHL goon the rest of his career?

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12-04-2009, 10:10 AM
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Never draft goons or enforcers early. You can always get them down the road undrafted. Always draft players with talent. The Oilers are sometimes stupid in their drafting and that has cost them big time.

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12-04-2009, 10:14 AM
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I think the idea behind drafting Abney is that he has the potential to become a Ben Eager type player - without the shooting ability. A hard skating forechecking beast that can punish opposing players, cause pandemonium, and play well defensively.

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12-04-2009, 10:28 AM
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Joe Hallenback
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tyrolean View Post
Never draft goons or enforcers early. You can always get them down the road undrafted. Always draft players with talent. The Oilers are sometimes stupid in their drafting and that has cost them big time.
I think your way off the Mark with that

Just looking at our division

Stortini - Drafted 3rd round
JFJ - Drafted 2nd round
Prust - Drafted 3rd round
Mcgratton - Drafted 4th round
Hordichuck - Drafted 6th round
Stewart - Drafted 1st round
Boogaard - Drafted 7th round

Rypien - not drafted
Mcleod - not drafted
Scott - not drafted

Those are they guys you could consider heavyweights who are in our division. The myth that enforcers or physical players can be found more easily undrafted just doesnt stand up

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12-04-2009, 10:35 AM
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Is this really what we have to be worried about? It's pretty rare for someone that we drafted in the third round to be anything special to begin with, so we took a flyer on the guy it won't be the end of the world.

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12-04-2009, 10:37 AM
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Eakin fell because he's small and missed half of last season with a serious concussion. I know plenty of people who were concerned that he's one big hit away from the end of his career.

That said, I wasn't a fan of taking Abney in the 3rd round either. I was hoping for the feel good story of Vincour... Oil King.

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12-04-2009, 10:50 AM
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As far as I'm concerned Abney is a good skater for a heavyweight. How many times do we see big slugs on the ice that can only contribute when the gloves come off? Even Stortini is often times missing out on hits because of his skating. IMO a good skating goon that can also take the body with regularity is a very nice thing to have.

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12-04-2009, 10:55 AM
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good thing Roy and Rajala were still available, imo we got a diverse and good set of young players, we just picked them in a sort of reverse order (outside of MPS and Lander).

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12-04-2009, 11:22 AM
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It is now as it was at the draft

He was drafted cause he was a fighter

Everyone knew he could barely skate

Oilers said he was a project

He is why steve smack was let go

All this kid is fight and he could be in the nhl next year

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12-04-2009, 11:23 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Guy Flaming View Post
Eakin fell because he's small and missed half of last season with a serious concussion. I know plenty of people who were concerned that he's one big hit away from the end of his career.

That said, I wasn't a fan of taking Abney in the 3rd round either. I was hoping for the feel good story of Vincour... Oil King.
My sentiments exactly, I was oh so hoping to see Vincour announced as our 3rd round pick.

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12-04-2009, 11:24 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jumptheshark View Post
It is now as it was at the draft

He was drafted cause he was a fighter

Everyone knew he could barely skate

Oilers said he was a project

He is why steve smack was let go

All this kid is fight and he could be in the nhl next year
I bet the kid is a better skater than Stortini is. He has some skills, he is much more skilled than MacIntyre for example.

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12-04-2009, 11:27 AM
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BTW-Him not fighting much usually just means that he's TOUGH and that not many want to try him out, and he's only 18. IIRC Jacques was the same way in his 18 or 19 year old season, people in the Q wanted no part of him. That just goes to show that he is feared. Look at a guy like Laraque in his prime, he never led the league in PIM because not everyone would be willing to go up against him.

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12-04-2009, 11:27 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Hallenback View Post
Is Abney going to be the next Milan Lucic? Or is going to be an AHL goon the rest of his career?
Abney the next Milan Lucic? I think not.

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12-04-2009, 11:32 AM
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Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
I bet the kid is a better skater than Stortini is. He has some skills, he is much more skilled than MacIntyre for example.
Tough to compare some of these guys when you are viewing some at the WHL level where half the guys can't skate vs the NHL where almost everyone can skate.

I agree with those that said it was a dumb pick. Dumb to pick enforcer types? No, not at all. But in the 3rd round you should still be going after skilled players that help you insulate against busts.

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12-04-2009, 11:52 AM
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Joe Hallenback
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Originally Posted by aki View Post
Abney the next Milan Lucic? I think not.
Why not Lucic was a poor skater with limited upside many thought. I can tell you the amount of people that guffawed that some goon was drafted in the 2nd round. Of course Lucic exploded the following year and is one of the better tough guys to come along

There was alot of pretty big and tough guys to get drafted in 2009. Kyle Clifford,Alex Chiasson,Taylor Doherty and Brett Ponich all went in the 2nd round. Jaime Devane was selected by the leafs in the 3rd round

Everyone is looking for the next Bob Probert or Milan Lucic but there is nothing wrong when you get a Shawn Thornton or David Clarkson

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12-04-2009, 12:14 PM
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I am one that is very much for BPA... but after round 2 you can tailor things to fit a bit more under what your team needs.

I might be one of the only ones who doesnt mind the pick. Abney isnt going to more than a 4th line tough guy but as far as that goes he has the tools to be a better than average 4th line tough guy. I think it would be a huge surprise if this guy doesnt make it in the NHL in that role. He also fills out several things we lack, size, toughness and heart.

The 3rd round is a huge gamble and some of you guys are talking like it is a lock and they passed on Parise again for MAP. We have made hundreds of worse picks than this one and though we are complaining we also rangled Toni Rajala and Olivier Roy. In addition Kyle Bigos numbers dont look to bad. Also if you go back to last year Philippe Cornet looks like a huge steal.

I for one have been pretty impressed with the oilers draft picks the last couple years.

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12-04-2009, 01:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Hallenback View Post
Why not Lucic was a poor skater with limited upside many thought.
Exactly, Lucic wasn't Lucic until a full year after he was drafted. Now I wasn't a fan of picking Abney in the 3rd round as I think we picked based him based on a slotted need. I believe we went in to the draft with the plan to pick a tougher player in the 3rd round.

Now, I'm all for adding grit to the lineup but, I'm not sold on Abney being much more then a chug, chug, chug, smash into the glass forchecking machine with debateable top level ability to reach the NHL. I'd have preferred a pick of Vincour who had possible 1st round ability if not for injury and circumstance.

Not the end of the world, but only in Canada would we be debating the 3rd round pick of an 18 year old, 6 months after the draft.

Damn we are nuts

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12-04-2009, 01:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Guy Flaming View Post
Eakin fell because he's small and missed half of last season with a serious concussion. I know plenty of people who were concerned that he's one big hit away from the end of his career.

That said, I wasn't a fan of taking Abney in the 3rd round either. I was hoping for the feel good story of Vincour... Oil King.
Yeah me too and I remember I asked you about him and you said the oilers might take him in the "3rd or 4th round if then". I was hoping they did but I was really dissapointed. I don't know why not. The guy is having a decent year in the W.

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12-04-2009, 01:56 PM
  #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Hallenback View Post
I would hazzard to guess many people on these boards have never seen Abney play live in the WHL nor have they probably seen any of those players live either. I can give you my view of all of these players as I have seen them on multiple occasions live this year

Eakin - I was surprised he fell to the 3rd round but not really shocked. You have to understand something about the draft. It is full of guys like Eakin every year who are small(yes he is small)but who can score. He is fast but not explosive and he can get knocked off the puck at times. But he can finish at the junior level and he is a pretty good penalty killer. It is hard to say if his scoring will ever translate to the NHL. If you want to know a similar player think Liam Reddox

Connauton and Button are both very good with the puck..on the powerplay. Both guys are minus players and are not the best defenders 5 on 5. I don't think right now either guy will ever be strong enough to be effective in the NHL. They are more like power play specialists then out and out complete defensemen. More Marc-Andre Bergeron's than Duncan Keith's.

Abney - I knew he was going to get drafted. He was a bonifide heavy weight and he was a good skater for being "just a goon". He is a big time hitter and is feared when he steps on the ice. He can and does generate scoring chances and he is clearly working on that part of his game this year. He really isn't going to fight that much this year because quite frankly he doesn't get many takers.

I guess it boils down to what you think drafted players are going to do.

Do you think Eakin will be a top 6 guy who can score 30 a year in the NHL? Or is he going to be AHL fodder heading back and forth and playing a bottom 6 role and maybe doing some penalty killing?

Are Connauton and Button guys that will log 20+ minutes a night and produce? Or are they guys who will put numbers in the AHL or head to Europe but never really adjust to the NHL?

Is Abney going to be the next Milan Lucic? Or is going to be an AHL goon the rest of his career?
Just want to say thanks for the informative post. Amongst a board where Nilsson's goal is OT and Blackhawks signings aren't, it's nice to know there are still people with valuable insight. Same goes for Mr Bugg, even if it's somewhat contradictory in purpose, and of course Flaming. Cheers to you all for the well constructed observations and opinions, it's appreciated.

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Old
12-04-2009, 02:00 PM
  #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Bugg View Post

The selection of Cameron Abney at 82 was an extremely controversial, and frankly, disappointing pick.

<clip>

What, then, convinced them this was a good idea?
I have a suggestion - check out http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/index.html

Go back year by year looking at the draft picks that succeeded & failed.

You will notice that approximately 20% of 1st round picks never became a long term NHL player.

That 50% of 2nd round picks never completed a full season the the NHL.

That 75% of 3rd round picks never completed a full season. Approximately 10% became marginal role players "at best".

I am curious why you are attempting to form a lynch mob over the 82nd pick in this years draft - seriously, what is the problem.....

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12-04-2009, 02:14 PM
  #25
Bryanbryoil
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Tough to compare some of these guys when you are viewing some at the WHL level where half the guys can't skate vs the NHL where almost everyone can skate.

I agree with those that said it was a dumb pick. Dumb to pick enforcer types? No, not at all. But in the 3rd round you should still be going after skilled players that help you insulate against busts.
I saw him play at this years camp, I was very impressed with his skating for a guy that was deemed a goon. Stortini's biggest downfall IMO is his skating. Imagine how much more effective he'd be if he could skate as well as Jacques.

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