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Cameron Abney vs. the 3rd round

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Old
12-04-2009, 01:14 PM
  #26
hillbillypriest
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Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
As far as I'm concerned Abney is a good skater for a heavyweight. How many times do we see big slugs on the ice that can only contribute when the gloves come off? Even Stortini is often times missing out on hits because of his skating. IMO a good skating goon that can also take the body with regularity is a very nice thing to have.
If Abney wasn't likely to be around by the 4th round, I think it was wise to pick him up in the 3rd. The Oilers are going to have a hard time making regulars out of all of their first rounders before they become waiver eligible, so I'm certainly not stressed about picking up a role player over a much more skilled player in this circumstance.

The thing with tough guys is that some times you need them for a singlular job, but most of the time you don't. As as result, one of the advantages of an Abney is that he can play in the minors most of the time and be called up and sent down as need be during his entry level period. Contrast this to SMAC, who got picked up when waived. The same potential exists for any player signed in the summer to be the designated thug. You might find that some other team that needs a thug at any given time will claim him when you want to send him down.

If Abney can skate well enough to not be a defensive liability, all in all I think picking him up in the third round was not a bad use of a pick at that stage of the draft.

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12-04-2009, 01:50 PM
  #27
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Originally Posted by Joe Hallenback View Post
I would hazzard to guess many people on these boards have never seen Abney play live in the WHL nor have they probably seen any of those players live either. I can give you my view of all of these players as I have seen them on multiple occasions live this year

Eakin - I was surprised he fell to the 3rd round but not really shocked. You have to understand something about the draft. It is full of guys like Eakin every year who are small(yes he is small)but who can score. He is fast but not explosive and he can get knocked off the puck at times. But he can finish at the junior level and he is a pretty good penalty killer. It is hard to say if his scoring will ever translate to the NHL. If you want to know a similar player think Liam Reddox

Connauton and Button are both very good with the puck..on the powerplay. Both guys are minus players and are not the best defenders 5 on 5. I don't think right now either guy will ever be strong enough to be effective in the NHL. They are more like power play specialists then out and out complete defensemen. More Marc-Andre Bergeron's than Duncan Keith's.

Abney - I knew he was going to get drafted. He was a bonifide heavy weight and he was a good skater for being "just a goon". He is a big time hitter and is feared when he steps on the ice. He can and does generate scoring chances and he is clearly working on that part of his game this year. He really isn't going to fight that much this year because quite frankly he doesn't get many takers.

I guess it boils down to what you think drafted players are going to do.

Do you think Eakin will be a top 6 guy who can score 30 a year in the NHL? Or is he going to be AHL fodder heading back and forth and playing a bottom 6 role and maybe doing some penalty killing?

Are Connauton and Button guys that will log 20+ minutes a night and produce? Or are they guys who will put numbers in the AHL or head to Europe but never really adjust to the NHL?

Is Abney going to be the next Milan Lucic? Or is going to be an AHL goon the rest of his career?
Nice post.

I don't mind the Abney pick at all.

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12-04-2009, 01:51 PM
  #28
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Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
As far as I'm concerned Abney is a good skater for a heavyweight. How many times do we see big slugs on the ice that can only contribute when the gloves come off? Even Stortini is often times missing out on hits because of his skating. IMO a good skating goon that can also take the body with regularity is a very nice thing to have.
Agreed.

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12-04-2009, 02:03 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by Real_Estate-Agent View Post
I have a suggestion - check out http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/index.html

Go back year by year looking at the draft picks that succeeded & failed.

You will notice that approximately 20% of 1st round picks never became a long term NHL player.

That 50% of 2nd round picks never completed a full season the the NHL.

That 75% of 3rd round picks never completed a full season. Approximately 10% became marginal role players "at best".

I am curious why you are attempting to form a lynch mob over the 82nd pick in this years draft - seriously, what is the problem.....
No kidding.
And anyway you slice it, the guy you draft 82 overall is a long, long term project.
How anyone can evaluate it in a negative way a few months after the draft is beyond ludicrous

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12-04-2009, 03:42 PM
  #30
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Originally Posted by Joe Hallenback View Post
I would hazzard to guess many people on these boards have never seen Abney play live in the WHL nor have they probably seen any of those players live either.
By' many people', are you referring to me? I had a media pass last year.

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You have to understand something about the draft. It is full of guys like Eakin every year who are small(yes he is small)but who can score.
No, I don't know anything about the Draft. Haven't been writing about since '05 and didn't go to the one in '07.

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He really isn't going to fight that much this year because quite frankly he doesn't get many takers.
This is what I was alluding to when I said 'by choice'.

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Those are they guys you could consider heavyweights who are in our division. The myth that enforcers or physical players can be found more easily undrafted just doesnt stand up
How so? 6th, 7th and undrafted = 5. Drafted in the first five rounds = 5. They can be found just as easily.

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Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
BTW-Him not fighting much usually just means that he's TOUGH and that not many want to try him out, and he's only 18. IIRC Jacques was the same way in his 18 or 19 year old season, people in the Q wanted no part of him. That just goes to show that he is feared. Look at a guy like Laraque in his prime, he never led the league in PIM because not everyone would be willing to go up against him.
Yeah, but like I said, these guys all used that extra respect and space to do something with it:

Jacques- 20-24-44
Laraque- 20-24-44
Stortini- 21-16-37
McGrattan- 11-21-32
Prust- 10-20-30

Fact is- and this goes for Joe too- players drafted higher than the fourth round are expected to bring something else along with fighting. That's why they get taken that high. The hope- albeit slim- is that they improve on their draft-year numbers. Abney had four points in his draft year. As LT demonstrated on his blog, that is low even for a fighter:

Laraque 17/18- 19-22-41
Jacques 17/18- 12-21-33
Stortini 17/18- 13-16-29

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Hallenback View Post
Why not Lucic was a poor skater with limited upside many thought. I can tell you the amount of people that guffawed that some goon was drafted in the 2nd round. Of course Lucic exploded the following year and is one of the better tough guys to come along
Yes, but as you pointed out, it only took until the next season for him to develop like that. And again, Lucic had more points Abney (19 vs. 4).

Quote:
There was alot of pretty big and tough guys to get drafted in 2009. Kyle Clifford,Alex Chiasson,Taylor Doherty and Brett Ponich all went in the 2nd round. Jaime Devane was selected by the leafs in the 3rd round
Clifford and Chiassion all bring more to the table offensively. Doherty and Ponich are 6'5 D.

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Everyone is looking for the next Bob Probert or Milan Lucic but there is nothing wrong when you get a Shawn Thornton or David Clarkson
David Clarkson was an undrafted FA signing.

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Originally Posted by Real_Estate-Agent View Post
I am curious why you are attempting to form a lynch mob over the 82nd pick in this years draft - seriously, what is the problem.....
So being critical of something is forming a lynch mob? I'll remember that the next you start a thread.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sammy View Post
No kidding.
And anyway you slice it, the guy you draft 82 overall is a long, long term project.
How anyone can evaluate it in a negative way a few months after the draft is beyond ludicrous
? http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=494040

You've no right to go around telling people to be patient about things when you're one of the most alarmist posters around.

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Old
12-04-2009, 03:59 PM
  #31
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Originally Posted by Mr Bugg View Post

? http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=494040

You've no right to go around telling people to be patient about things when you're one of the most alarmist posters around.
Me. Im about the least alarmist poster around. I cant see how that thread was alarmist. In fact, I get into almost all my battles with the sky is falling crowd.

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Old
12-04-2009, 04:01 PM
  #32
Joe Hallenback
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Bugg View Post
By' many people', are you referring to me? I had a media pass last year.



No, I don't know anything about the Draft. Haven't been writing about since '05 and didn't go to the one in '07.



This is what I was alluding to when I said 'by choice'.



How so? 6th, 7th and undrafted = 5. Drafted in the first five rounds = 5. They can be found just as easily.



Yeah, but like I said, these guys all used that extra respect and space to do something with it:

Jacques- 20-24-44
Laraque- 20-24-44
Stortini- 21-16-37
McGrattan- 11-21-32
Prust- 10-20-30

Fact is- and this goes for Joe too- players drafted higher than the fourth round are expected to bring something else along with fighting. That's why they get taken that high. The hope- albeit slim- is that they improve on their draft-year numbers. Abney had four points in his draft year. As LT demonstrated on his blog, that is low even for a fighter:

Laraque 17/18- 19-22-41
Jacques 17/18- 12-21-33
Stortini 17/18- 13-16-29



Yes, but as you pointed out, it only took until the next season for him to develop like that. And again, Lucic had more points Abney (19 vs. 4).



Clifford and Chiassion all bring more to the table offensively. Doherty and Ponich are 6'5 D.



David Clarkson was an undrafted FA signing.



So being critical of something is forming a lynch mob? I'll remember that the next you start a thread.



? http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=494040

You've no right to go around telling people to be patient about things when you're one of the most alarmist posters around.
If your going to write and analyze something and then have someone else argue a counter point to what you are suggesting then you need to have some thicker skin

The point is no one really knows what you are getting when your drafting and it is not all about drafting guys who can score in boatloads in junior. The BPA does not mean guy with the most points and too many times that argument crops up about who should or could have been drafted.

I wouldn't have been disappointed with any of those players because in my mind they are all projects who will probably never really pan out but the value each of them could bring is understandable. I am not disappointed with the Oilers grabbing Abney because he was probably not going to be around as alot of the "premier fighters" ie..Ponich,Clifford,Chiasson and Devane were already gone at that point.

Why pick any of those guys that you did. You could easily have picked Lindey Vay,Casey Cizakas,Nic Deslauriers or David Savard. They all have an erry similarity with the 3 players you selected. Decent scoring junior forwards who are not overly big or Small sized defenders with decent offense capabilities. You could probably make an argument that Fighters tend to go during these rounds as well because like those other 2 types of players they have limitations in their game.

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12-04-2009, 04:07 PM
  #33
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Originally Posted by Joe Hallenback View Post
If your going to write and analyze something and then have someone else argue a counter point to what you are suggesting then you need to have some thicker skin
Joe, honestly, you've been here as long as I have. You know what I like to post/write about. For you to question whether I watch games or to try and educate me about the draft is just plain insulting. You keep on doing it throughout this post, too, so it's not an accident.

Quote:
Why pick any of those guys that you did. You could easily have picked Lindey Vay,Casey Cizakas,Nic Deslauriers or David Savard.
Because they didn't play in the WHL. That was the point of the OP- three of the next four picks came from the same league and were judged to be not as good/necessary, and they're all out-performing our guy.

Quote:
You could probably make an argument that Fighters tend to go during these rounds as well because like those other 2 types of players they have limitations in their game.
Unless you're an unheardof-sized beast like Boogaard, fighters with less than ten points don't get taken that high and I can't think of one that's covered the bet.

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Old
12-04-2009, 04:44 PM
  #34
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Originally Posted by hillbillypriest View Post
If Abney wasn't likely to be around by the 4th round, I think it was wise to pick him up in the 3rd. The Oilers are going to have a hard time making regulars out of all of their first rounders before they become waiver eligible, so I'm certainly not stressed about picking up a role player over a much more skilled player in this circumstance.

The thing with tough guys is that some times you need them for a singlular job, but most of the time you don't. As as result, one of the advantages of an Abney is that he can play in the minors most of the time and be called up and sent down as need be during his entry level period. Contrast this to SMAC, who got picked up when waived. The same potential exists for any player signed in the summer to be the designated thug. You might find that some other team that needs a thug at any given time will claim him when you want to send him down.

If Abney can skate well enough to not be a defensive liability, all in all I think picking him up in the third round was not a bad use of a pick at that stage of the draft.
I was about to agree with Bugg/make my own observation that enforcers aren't something you need to draft that highly, but this is a great counterpoint before that.

I still think those picks should be used on players with a chance to become premier talent, however slim, as there are viable enforcers out there every single year to be had for cheap. Just look at the Flames revolving door for the last few years.

On this side of the coin as well it's worth pointing out that even if you had the luxury of moving your enforcer through the system at will, how long would that last if they were effective? I mean it really wasn't very long before Stortini was committed to on a one-way contract.

And as a worst case scenario there's always the trade route if a team feels that deeply in need of an enforcer. The last that comes to mind is Jody Shelley for a 6th rounder...an appropriate price in my opinion and I can't imagine that a team wouldn't have just about their pick of enforcer around the league if they were offering up a third rd pick.

Which in and of itself may put this entire thing into perspective.

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Old
12-04-2009, 05:01 PM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Bugg View Post
Yeah, but like I said, these guys all used that extra respect and space to do something with it:

Jacques- 20-24-44
Laraque- 20-24-44
Stortini- 21-16-37
McGrattan- 11-21-32
Prust- 10-20-30

Fact is- and this goes for Joe too- players drafted higher than the fourth round are expected to bring something else along with fighting. That's why they get taken that high. The hope- albeit slim- is that they improve on their draft-year numbers. Abney had four points in his draft year. As LT demonstrated on his blog, that is low even for a fighter:

Laraque 17/18- 19-22-41
Jacques 17/18- 12-21-33
Stortini 17/18- 13-16-29
I can't honestly say anything about him in the WHL and what his role is there, however I can vouch for the fact that he seemed to have decent hands and he seemed like a good skater for a heavyweight. Obviously there is upside to this kid or the Oilers wouldn't have drafted him that high. I saw some of what they saw at camp. Look no farther than Alex Plante, he was torn apart and then adored by many bloggers in a years time.

This IMO is an example of ignoring stats, looking at intangibles, and envisioning the finished product. Time will tell if they were right or wrong.

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12-04-2009, 05:11 PM
  #36
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I was one of those who was perplexed by this pick as well, considering the other prospects still available. Nonetheless, from what I saw of the kid in the prospects camp he does skate quite well. I don't know what his game is like in junior, but if he evolves into a bang and crash type who brings it consistently like a Stortini, I certainly don't mind the pick at all. And to be fair to Stortini, his skating isn't that bad. When he accelerates to hit, he can get from A to B pretty quickly.

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Old
12-04-2009, 05:25 PM
  #37
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I was pretty much freaking out when the Oilers grabbed Abney and Hesketh while a few notables were still out there. I feel like the Oilers missed a couple of opportunities in the middle rounds. Regardless of what Abney turns out to be, I feel like the Oilers were way farther ahead gambling with a 3rd round pick on a potential impact player, rather than a potential NHL fighter.

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