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04 EDM 1st, will draft?

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Old
04-15-2004, 05:08 PM
  #1
speeds
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04 EDM 1st, will draft?

Picard seems to be the favorite, others have been discussed as well.

Haven't heard much discussion about some other guys, but thought I'd bring them up anyways.

Valabik, Stafford, Chipchura, any of these guys interest Oil fans?

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04-15-2004, 05:15 PM
  #2
hunter orange
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In order of preference for the 14th pick, I'd like to see the Oil nab:

1. Picard
2. Sindel
3. Montoya
4. Lisin
5. Stafford

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04-15-2004, 05:15 PM
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I still have a feeling they'll take a goalie if they can't trade up.

I like Valabik (but it might be a stretch to take him with the first pick) and Stafford. Chipchura's doing well at the Under-18 Tournament, but I would still pass on him.

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04-15-2004, 05:18 PM
  #4
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Picard will probably go 10th - 13th, so I'm keeping my fingers crossed for Sindel...Let's get a Havlat, shall we?

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04-15-2004, 05:19 PM
  #5
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Valabik won't go that high. I think he'll still be there with Philly's pick. Chipchura, he's like a Stoll with less offense, so I'd rather pass on him. Stafford is like a Dave Scatchard type, but could be a solid mid to late first round pick.

I'm interested in Picard, Lisin, Green, Sindel, and maybe Radulov if he's worth the gamble.

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04-15-2004, 05:24 PM
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Valabik sounds as though he's rated too low to be likely at EDM's pick, but 6'6" D are nice to have, and we know EDM likes size on the backend.

For the moment, my expected top 13 (not in order, for the purposes of this list ) are:


Barker
Ladd
Malkin
Montoya
O'Neil
Olesz
Ovechkin
Picard
Thalen
Tukonen
Schwartz
Schremp
Wolski

That is likely to change of course as the final CSB rankings come out, the THN issue comes out, McKeen's and Redline info leaking, and speculation from various newpapers as the draft approaches.

I'm just trying to get a feel for who people like outside of the above 13 (top 13 or not)

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04-15-2004, 05:26 PM
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If we can't move up (I would love to make it up to Olesz), then my vote goes to either of Greene or Shwartz. The edge likely goes to Shwartz simply because I don't want to have to listen to a game on the radio and hear:

Greene passes to Greene, Greene up to Smith who just got out of the box, Smith to Smyth, Smyth breaks in, drops it to Smith, Smith SCORES!!

I can't handle that kind of confusion

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Old
04-15-2004, 05:32 PM
  #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by USC Trojans
Chipchura, he's like a Stoll with less offense, so I'd rather pass on him. Stafford is like a Dave Scatchard type, but could be a solid mid to late first round pick.
Stafford is ranked top 10 by a couple of scouting services I believe.

Chipchura seems to be more highly touted than Stoll, he is bigger and perhaps a better skater (haven't seen him myself, just going by what I've read).

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04-15-2004, 05:42 PM
  #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by speeds
For the moment, my expected top 13 (not in order, for the purposes of this list ) are:

Barker
Ladd
Malkin
Montoya
O'Neil
Olesz
Ovechkin
Picard
Thalen
Tukonen
Schwartz
Schremp
Wolski
I wouldn't rule out one of the goalies being there for your pick neither would I rule out O'Neill or Thelen. Looks like there's a decent chance Stafford will be gone by your pick so if you're going to include some of the names that you do have on this list you might as well include him.

Personally I think the only guys you can safely rule out are AO, Malkin, Barker, Olesz, Tukonen, Ladd and Schremp. Maybe Schwarz and Stafford, but there's situations I can see them falling.

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04-15-2004, 05:43 PM
  #10
speeds
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher
Stafford is ranked top 10 by a couple of scouting services I believe.

Chipchura seems to be more highly touted than Stoll, he is bigger and perhaps a better skater (haven't seen him myself, just going by what I've read).
The more I read about Stafford the more I think he could easily be the guy EDM picks, assuming he's available at 14.

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04-15-2004, 05:46 PM
  #11
speeds
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher
I wouldn't rule out one of the goalies being there for your pick neither would I rule out O'Neill or Thelen. Looks like there's a decent chance Stafford will be gone by your pick so if you're going to include some of the names that you do have on this list you might as well include him.

Personally I think the only guys you can safely rule out are AO, Malkin, Barker, Olesz, Tukonen, Ladd and Schremp. Maybe Schwarz and Stafford, but there's situations I can see them falling.
Like I said, I'm just guessing based on the little I've read, I'm hoping I'll be more "with it" by the time the draft appraoches

Wolski probably has too much skill to fall to 14, but he has his detractors. The one game I saw of Ladd turned me off, but obviously I saw him on a bad day since he seems to be a consensus top 10 pick at this point.

I'll be surprised if LA doesn't take one of the goalies at 11 (seems like they have a need AND a goalie will likely be the BPA at that spot if the teams below like FLA and CAR pass on a G thinking they already have good enough prospects) but of course it depends on their list and who is available.

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04-15-2004, 05:51 PM
  #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by speeds
I'll be surprised if LA doesn't take one of the goalies at 11 (seems like they have a need AND a goalie will likely be the BPA at that spot if the teams below like FLA and CAR pass on a G thinking they already have good enough prospects) but of course it depends on their list and who is available.
The goalies are oh so hard to predict. Sometimes the teams who you think might be the obvious candidates go in a different direction and sometimes the teams you think would never grab one end up doing so. Complicating the matter is that teams may move up or down.

One trend I've noticed in the past few years is that the goalies often end up going slightly higher than the consenus rankings. With that in mind it wouldn't surprise me to see both Schwarz and Montoya gone by your pick. Schwarz seems to be solidly in the top 10 by both Redline and McKeens while some seem to feel that Montoya is better. Of course given that this is a strong year for goalies throughout the draft perhaps the incentive to get one of the top couple is not as high as in recent years?


Last edited by Flames Draft Watcher: 04-15-2004 at 06:08 PM.
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04-15-2004, 06:07 PM
  #13
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if KLowe can move up in either or both of their picks, I hopeful they can pick up
any two of the following:
Tukonen
Thelen
Picard
Radulov
Lisin
Valabik
I figure when Klowe picks a goalie, most likely will be in the second round, not first.




.


Last edited by TheChase: 04-15-2004 at 06:10 PM.
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Old
04-15-2004, 06:16 PM
  #14
Lowetide
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I like Picard alot (I hope they get him), but that big kid Green looks good too. Stafford's bio reads Oiler like, as well, plus the three goalies (Schwarz, Montoya, Dubnyk) could go Oil, especially if JDD slips through their fingers.

If speeds list is correct (looks good to me):
Barker
Ladd
Malkin
Montoya
O'Neil
Olesz
Ovechkin
Picard
Thalen
Tukonen
Schwartz
Schremp
Wolski

Then I'd probably vote for Chipchura, with Stafford, Dubnyk and Green all right there.

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Old
04-15-2004, 06:19 PM
  #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher
The goalies are oh so hard to predict. Sometimes the teams who you think might be the obvious candidates go in a different direction and sometimes the teams you think would never grab one end up doing so. Complicating the matter is that teams may move up or down.
No doubt, far and away the hardest to project a mock draft on (speaking of, do you make mocks FDW, for some reason I think I've asked you before and you say you don't?). Who knows who has which goalie ranked where in their own "goalie" rankings, and then to try and compare a G to a forward is tough as well.
Some might say "BUF will never pick a goalie this draft", but by teh time 13 comes around the goalie could be so far-and-away the BOA that BUF wouldn't have much choice unless they are dead-set against drafting another goalie (I don't know why they would be?)





Quote:
Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher
One trend I've noticed in the past few years is that the goalies often end up going slightly higher than the consenus rankings. With that in mind it wouldn't surprise me to see both Schwarz and Montoya gone by your pick. Schwarz seems to be solidly in the top 10 by both Redline and McKeens while some seem to feel that Montoya is better. Of course given that this is a strong year for goalies throughout the draft perhaps the incentive to get one of the top couple is not as high as in recent years?
I've seen it posted before that EDM may consider not drafting a goalie at 14 unless they are by far the BPA at that slot simply because the estimated difference in quality of goalie available at 14 to mid-late 20's to mid 2nd round (EDM"s first 3 picks) won't be as big as the difference in quality of skaters from 14 to mid-late 20's to mid 2nd round.

Or if the Oilers have a goalie like Ellis or Schneider ranked as their favorite or 2nd favorite goalie, they might pick a skater at 14 "knowing" - hoping more like - that "their goalie" will be avail at PHI's pick or perhaps even with their 2nd?

Who knows?

FDW, if you had to guess, based on what you've read and what you expect to unfold in the top 13, what 3 or 4 players might you think a team like EDM would be interested in?

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04-15-2004, 06:26 PM
  #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lowetide
Then I'd probably vote for Chipchura, with Stafford, Dubnyk and Green all right there.
Kind of reminds me of the 2001 discussions, regarding Armstrong and Hemsky and all the others.

Except this year I like Chipchura (while I didn't really think much of Armstrong), and am indifferent to the Sindel and Lisin's suggested (while I liked Hemsky a bunch back in 01).


Of those 4, I'd rank my favorites as:

Stafford
Green/Chipchura (haven't read enough to decide between these 2, I lean towards Chipchura at this point)
Dubnyk

I wouldn't be too interested in Dubnyk at 14, but maybe that's because:

- he might well be avail at PHI's pick
- if not, there are a bunch of good goalies in this draft who will be avail at PHI's pick and maybe still some good ones avail with EDM's 2nd

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04-15-2004, 06:32 PM
  #17
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Guys I seen gone by our pick:

1. Ovechkin
2. Malkin
3. Schremp
4. Barker
5. Olesz
6. Ladd
7. Tukonen
8. Wolski
9. Thelen
10. Stafford
11. Picard

Plus any two of:

- Schwarz
- Montoya
- O'Neill

While some guys like Schremp, Stafford and Picard have been all over the board, I feel the two real wild cards, as previously mentioned, in this draft are the goalies, Schwarz and Montoya. They could both go top ten, or one of them could fall out of the first round.

I think that Lowe will select the guy from the above list that is still around, unless he finds a guy ranked a bit lower that he really likes. Some remaining players that might pique his interest:

1. Green - Solid two-way d-man. One of the more NHL-ready picks in this draft.
2. Chipchura - A lot has been made of his lack of scoring. The more I look at our pick, the more I like this kid. So he didn't score as many as Henrich, Riesen, Bonsignore, etc. at a young age. Great skater, good kid. A solid, safe pick.
3. Lisin - Perhaps the fastest player in this draft. But is rumored to have some problems finishing ala Dvorak. Small, too. Prender & co. would have to think pretty highly of him to take him here.
4. Sindel - Another skilled sniper, but is said to be VERY soft. A risky pick, but Lowe might feel that his skill is too much to pass up.
5. Radulov - Has seen his stock take a dramatic rise in the last couple months. Seems to be having a solid U-18. I haven't heard that much about him, but I didn't hear that much about Niinimaki or Mikhnov either, so .


All of these guys could go anywhere from about 12 to the early second round. I've heard some rumblings that Sindel might fall even farther. If I'm KLo and I can't move up into the top 5, I would look to trade down a handful of picks like last year for a second. If they're looking to take a gamble in the first round, the guy they would want would still most likely be there, so for a 2nd, I'd move down again.

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04-15-2004, 06:38 PM
  #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by speeds
Kind of reminds me of the 2001 discussions, regarding Armstrong and Hemsky and all the others.

Except this year I like Chipchura (while I didn't really think much of Armstrong), and am indifferent to the Sindel and Lisin's suggested (while I liked Hemsky a bunch back in 01).
Good point. I have a WHL bias, so I'm guilty of overrating guys in that league. For me, the problem is that the bio's of ALL of these kids look like they might be possible Oilers.

Well, there's a few exceptions, but not many in the top 15 or so.

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04-15-2004, 06:40 PM
  #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boondock Saint
Guys I seen gone by our pick:

1. Ovechkin
2. Malkin
3. Schremp
4. Barker
5. Olesz
6. Ladd
7. Tukonen
8. Wolski
9. Thelen
10. Stafford
11. Picard

Plus any two of:

- Schwarz
- Montoya
- O'Neill

While some guys like Schremp, Stafford and Picard have been all over the board, I feel the two real wild cards, as previously mentioned, in this draft are the goalies, Schwarz and Montoya. They could both go top ten, or one of them could fall out of the first round.

I think that Lowe will select the guy from the above list that is still around, unless he finds a guy ranked a bit lower that he really likes. Some remaining players that might pique his interest:

1. Green - Solid two-way d-man. One of the more NHL-ready picks in this draft.
2. Chipchura - A lot has been made of his lack of scoring. The more I look at our pick, the more I like this kid. So he didn't score as many as Henrich, Riesen, Bonsignore, etc. at a young age. Great skater, good kid. A solid, safe pick.
3. Lisin - Perhaps the fastest player in this draft. But is rumored to have some problems finishing ala Dvorak. Small, too. Prender & co. would have to think pretty highly of him to take him here.
4. Sindel - Another skilled sniper, but is said to be VERY soft. A risky pick, but Lowe might feel that his skill is too much to pass up.
5. Radulov - Has seen his stock take a dramatic rise in the last couple months. Seems to be having a solid U-18. I haven't heard that much about him, but I didn't hear that much about Niinimaki or Mikhnov either, so .


All of these guys could go anywhere from about 12 to the early second round. I've heard some rumblings that Sindel might fall even farther. If I'm KLo and I can't move up into the top 5, I would look to trade down a handful of picks like last year for a second. If they're looking to take a gamble in the first round, the guy they would want would still most likely be there, so for a 2nd, I'd move down again.
It looks like you missed Thelen.. everything I've read has said he's essentially a lock for the top 10. That would push one of those top 10 guys down a notch. I'd love the Oilers to draft one of Tukonen, Ladd, Picard, Wolski or Stafford. Unfortunately, these guys will likely all be gone by the time the Oilers selection comes up..

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04-15-2004, 06:40 PM
  #20
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For the 14th pick, I would really really want the Oilers to NOT pick a goalie.
Ovechkin, Malkin, Olesz, Barker, Shremp will probably go top five.

From 6 - 14, you've got a selection of probably Tukonen, Ladd, Thelen, Wolski, Green, Picard, O'Neil, Stafford, Lisin, Chipchura. If no one picks a goalie in the top 14, then more than likely, the Oilers have a pick of one of these players. But wait, you say, why not a goalie now? Because the Oilers have a pick at #25 and there's a good chance that one of the three top goalies, Montoya, Schwartz or Dubnyk will still be available then. Three goalies available from 14 - 24 before the Oilers pick, what's the chance all three are gone?

Say the reverse happens, that two of the three are chosen amongst the top 14 picks, leaving... Dubnyk available at 14. Well, that means two other Non-goalies are available instead, maybe strong forward with touch like Ladd? maybe an offensive dman like Thelen?

I guess what I'm trying to say is I would suggest picking a non-goalie with the oilers pick at 14, then if one of the three (Montoya, Schwartz and Dubnyk) is available at 25, then pick them there.

Otherwise, this is my order of preference for 14: (assuming the top 5 are out)
Tukonen, (centre)
Thelen, (offensive dman)
Ladd,
Wolski, (skilled)
Stafford, (local boy)
Picard,
Green (offensive dman)
Chipchura, (local boy and Centre!)
Lisin,
O'Neil (do we need another defensive dman?)

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04-15-2004, 06:41 PM
  #21
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I wonder if the Oilers will trade DOWN? Did in 2002 and 2003.

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04-15-2004, 06:47 PM
  #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neogeo69
Because the Oilers have a pick at #25 and there's a good chance that one of the three top goalies, Montoya, Schwartz or Dubnyk will still be available then. Three goalies available from 14 - 24 before the Oilers pick, what's the chance all three are gone?
But remember... right now, Dubnyk isn't considered to be on the same level as Schwarz and Montoya. If he's available with PHI's pick, then he's worth a look. Although I would take just as close a look at Cory Schneider.

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04-15-2004, 07:21 PM
  #23
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Who i want:

1. Shremph
2. Picard
3. Tukonen
4. Montoya

Who they will probably end up with

1. Chipchura
2. Dubnyk
3. McGrath
4. Lisin
5. O'Neill
6. Some no name player to try and shock the NHL when no one really cares. We may draft another Niinimaki here.


Last edited by outKast*: 04-15-2004 at 07:25 PM.
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04-15-2004, 07:46 PM
  #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cerebral
It looks like you missed Thelen.. everything I've read has said he's essentially a lock for the top 10. That would push one of those top 10 guys down a notch. I'd love the Oilers to draft one of Tukonen, Ladd, Picard, Wolski or Stafford. Unfortunately, these guys will likely all be gone by the time the Oilers selection comes up..
I think Cerebral needs glasses....

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04-15-2004, 07:48 PM
  #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lowetide
I wonder if the Oilers will trade DOWN? Did in 2002 and 2003.
There seems to be a drop-off after the top 11 skaters, that's for sure. If one of those guys doesn't fall to KLo, I wouldn't be surprised to see him trade down a couple picks for another second.

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