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Hedberg vs. Pavelec

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Old
12-12-2009, 04:03 PM
  #1
Magnus Fulgur
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Hedberg vs. Pavelec

I posted this on the official T-Birds board, I'd like to see some more constructive responses here:

Hedberg has the second best save percentage in the NHL at .933

Pavelec has the 22nd best save percentage in the NHL at .913 - two points below Luongo and one point below Thomas.

Hedberg is 5th for GAA at 2.15, and Pavelec is way down at 41st with a 3.09.

Hedberg is 7-3-0 in games played and Pavelec is 8-8-3

Hedberg has not let in more than 2 Even Strength goals this year. Pavelec has let in 3 or more on 9 occasions.

Now this last point is where I want to chime in...this is the stat that makes Pavelec look really bad, until you see which games Pavelec let in 3 or more...these were all terrible efforts by the whole team except for the last Vancouver game where I thought we played decently. Check it out here:

http://www.nhl.com/ice/pl...=log&season=20092010

Hedberg's game log is here, btw:

http://www.nhl.com/ice/pl...=log&season=20092010

Now, look at the three games Hedberg lost: SJS, PIT, and CGY. I thought we played hard in all these games: not great, but way better than some of the debacles we lost when Pavelec was in net.

My conclusion in the Hedberg vs. Pavelec debate is the same one I came to in the Hedberg vs. Lehtonen debate: Hedberg is not necessarily the better goalie, as much as I really like him and his play, but for many reasons the team simply plays harder for Hedberg than for the other goaltenders.

Would this be true if Hedberg was starting twice as many games as he is now?

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12-12-2009, 05:02 PM
  #2
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Hedberg needs to rip of 7-10 starts in a row. Point, blank, period. No questions asked.

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12-12-2009, 05:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AtlantaSportsFan View Post
Hedberg needs to rip of 7-10 starts in a row. Point, blank, period. No questions asked.
I can't believe I'm saying this, but- agreed.

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12-12-2009, 05:44 PM
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When we signed Hedberg I remember reading a profile saying that he couldn't start a ton of games or he would fade out.

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12-12-2009, 09:35 PM
  #5
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Hedberg is the back-up, regardless of what anybody wants to believe. Pavalec is an extremely talented young goalie. Key word being young. Goalies tend to be streaky in their early years. When Pavelec is on, he's one of the best goalies in the league. When he's off, he's in the bottom ten for starters.

Pavelec is this team's goalie of the future. The team needs to work around his shortcomings if he is to develop into the goaltender that he has the potential to become. Goalie management such as what we've seen this year, and especially in recent weeks will not help Pavelec's development at all. He needs to be given a starter's load if we want him to develop as he should.
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Old
12-12-2009, 09:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Citizen Kane View Post
Hedberg is the back-up, regardless of what anybody wants to believe. Pavalec is an extremely talented young goalie. Key word being young. Goalies tend to be streaky in their early years. When Pavelec is on, he's one of the best goalies in the league. When he's off, he's in the bottom ten for starters.

Pavelec is this team's goalie of the future. The team needs to work around his shortcomings if he is to develop into the goaltender that he has the potential to become. Goalie management such as what we've seen this year, and especially in recent weeks will not help Pavelec's development at all. He needs to be given a starter's load if we want him to develop as he should.
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Agree 100%. I'm fine with giving Hedberg some more starts when he's hot like he has been, but not giving Pavelec a #1 amount of starts is certainly hurting him more than helping him IMO. With Lehtonen out for so long, its the perfect time to get a lot of good looks at Pavelec and see what he's made of, and he's been good in most of his starts. A player wont get better by NOT playing...

As for the question at the end of the original post... that's a good question. I don't know if our team just trusts Hedberg more or what, but if that's the case, the players have got to just trust whoever is in net, no matter who it is, and not play differently depending on who is between the pipes.

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12-13-2009, 01:30 AM
  #7
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If Hedberg is going to keep playing like this then I see no reason not to let him be the #1 and give Pavelec the odd game every know and then. The goal *is* to make the playoffs this year, right? Pavelec's future is in his own hands, there is no reason to sink this season in the name of his development. Until Moose starts playing like Pavelec he should be getting the majority of the starts.

And yes, I know Hedberg is a career back-up, I also don't care about anything but winning as many games as we can this year with the roster we've been given.

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12-13-2009, 01:35 AM
  #8
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Hedberg wins again. Let in softies but also made game saving saves.

Now please JA play him like a #1. He must start Monday and Wednesday and possibly Thursday but since it's a back to back he may get rested but than he needs to come back and start on Saturday.

4 games next week, Moose needs to play atleast 3.

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12-13-2009, 08:13 AM
  #9
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I'm happy Pavs isn't getting played as much. It's VERY important for young goalies not to play as much because they benefit a lot from working on individual things in practice, moreso than your average skater.

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12-13-2009, 08:20 AM
  #10
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All this team has ever cared about since it's inception is the future.

Now we have a solid chance at making a playoff run and most want to ruin it by letting Pavelec remain #1 so he can develop.

I for one care about the present, because this group of guys have a legitimate chance to do some damage and I don't want it ruined by some young kid who is gonna be great one night and awful the next 3.

Make Moose #1 and let's win some games.

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12-13-2009, 11:02 AM
  #11
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I see what you guys are saying, the goal is definitely to make the playoffs. The difference between us is that I think we make the playoffs just fine with Pavelec starting most games.

I don't know if any of you noticed but Pavelec has been playing very well for us... the games where he started sucking recently just happened to be the same games where the rest of the team looked like they didn't care or even realize they were professional hockey players.

In no way am I letting him off the hook for those games. He's got to play better than that. But what I see when the Thrashers are on the ice is that if the team is playing well, Pavelec helps win the game more and is a better goalie. When the team plays poorly, Hedberg seems to be able to help steal a win or a point and save the day (Pavs did do that a couple times as well, though).

IMO if Pavelec was in net last night against Montreal we would have won that game 3-1 or 4-1 simply because the team got back to playing well and I believe Pavelec would have followed suit. It's easy for me to say that though because I don't really know what would have happened.

But like I said earlier, I don't have a problem with starting Hedberg more with the way he has been playing. He deserves it. I DO NOT think he should get 7-10 starts in a row like some said earlier in this thread though... I think that would be a huge mistake.

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12-13-2009, 07:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lynk View Post
All this team has ever cared about since it's inception is the future.

Now we have a solid chance at making a playoff run and most want to ruin it by letting Pavelec remain #1 so he can develop.

I for one care about the present, because this group of guys have a legitimate chance to do some damage and I don't want it ruined by some young kid who is gonna be great one night and awful the next 3.

Make Moose #1 and let's win some games.
this.


If Moose played against Toronto and Vancouver, we win both games easily.

JA please start Moose tomorrow. You can play Pavelec Thursday if you want and when he gets lit up you can bench him for 10 straight since we don't have any back to backs coming up.


Last edited by John Cena*: 12-13-2009 at 07:42 PM.
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Old
12-14-2009, 06:35 PM
  #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by donGjohnson View Post
I'm happy Pavs isn't getting played as much. It's VERY important for young goalies not to play as much because they benefit a lot from working on individual things in practice, moreso than your average skater.
i agree. one thing i was worried about when pavs started to do well is that they would overwork him just like lehtonen. not every goalie can start as many games as brodeur and i think teams need to realize that.

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12-14-2009, 08:21 PM
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what is lehtonen's status?

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12-14-2009, 08:51 PM
  #15
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If that doesn't prove he deserves to be #1 I dunno what will.

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12-14-2009, 09:10 PM
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He's been the #1 for the past month in my opinion.

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12-19-2009, 10:43 PM
  #17
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Numbers don't always tell the story in hockey, but in this case I think they do.

Hedberg: 2.33 GAA, .927 svg., 9-4-0.
Pavelec: 3.28 GAA, .910 svg., 9-9-3.

In my mind, it shouldn't even be a contest. Unless Hedberg has stamina issues, he IS our starter.

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12-19-2009, 11:02 PM
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i'm not all that keen on goalie stats, but can't you infer from those that pavelec faces a lot more shots than hedberg?

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12-19-2009, 11:44 PM
  #19
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Pavelec not only sees more shots, but he also sees more quality chances from the other team.

People are looking specifically at the goalies. After tonight, it should be clear to everyone that out D needs work, and lots of it.

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12-20-2009, 12:16 AM
  #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PHYS251 View Post
Numbers don't always tell the story in hockey, but in this case I think they do.

Hedberg: 2.33 GAA, .927 svg., 9-4-0.
Pavelec: 3.28 GAA, .910 svg., 9-9-3.

In my mind, it shouldn't even be a contest. Unless Hedberg has stamina issues, he IS our starter.
Hedberg has had some great games this year, but after three years on this team, everyone should know what he is capable of. Ride him while he's hot (as the Thrashers have done in the past) but don't expect him to keep up the pace over the entire season. Then again, Pavelec hasn't exactly been the model of consistency. The team should continue with its 1A/1B system until either Pavelec develops that consistency at the NHL level or Lehtonen comes back.

And as people said, goaltending isn't the problem.


Last edited by Norm MacDonald: 12-20-2009 at 12:24 AM.
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Old
12-20-2009, 01:40 PM
  #21
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right. pavelec's save percentage is only a little less than hedberg's while allowed goals is almost an entire point above. so pavelec is making almost the same amount of saves, percentage wise, right? i'm just trying to make sure i understand what the stats mean.

so say for easiness, hedberg faces 10 shots and stops 9. he has a 90% SA and a 1 GAA. pavelec faces 20 shots and stops 18. he also has a 90% SA, but leaves with a 2 GAA. this is basically what is happening, right?

and if that is the case, then we can only conclude that when pavelec takes the net, something happens in the playing of the other five guys on the ice and they hang him out to dry.

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12-23-2009, 04:01 PM
  #22
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Analysis

------------------------------------------------------
If we take usual 60 minute game (without OT & excesses - early pull) we get this:
------------------------------------------------------

Hedberg averaged 31.7 SA in 13 games and Pavelec averaged 36.1 SA in 18 games.

games with 40+ SA - Hedberg 2 (.955 SV%) - Pavelec 5 (.937 SV%)
games with 35+ SA - Hedberg 4 (.944 SV%) - Pavelec 11 (.926 SV%)
games with 30+ SA - Hedberg 7 (.946 SV%) - Pavelec 15 (.923 SV%)
games with less than 30 SA - Hedberg 6 (.888 SV%) - Pavelec 3 (.893 SV%)

Hedberg conceded 30 goals (19 EV, 11 PP, 0 SH)
Pavelec conceded 51 goals (38 EV, 11 PP, 2 SH)

------------------------------------------------------
If we take all games (with OT) we get this:
------------------------------------------------------

Hedberg conceded 36 goals (22 EV, 14 PP. 0 SH)
Pavelec conceded 67 goals (54 EV, 11 PP. 2 SH)

Hedberg - once pulled (4 GA, 12 SA, .667 SV%), three times in during game (1 GA, 29 SA, .966 SV%)
Pavelec - three times pulled (15 GA, 72 SA, .792 SV%), once in during game (0 GA, 12 SA, 1.000 SV%)

SITUATION - G - SA - TOI -> SV% -> GAA60 -> GAA2
(GAA60 = GAA in 60 minutes; GAA2 = GAA in 2 minutes)
Hedberg PK - 14 - 103 - 110:31 -> .864 -> 7.77 -> 0.26
Hedberg PP - 0 - 14 - 108:05 -> 1.000 -> 0.00 -> 0.00
Hedberg EV - 22 - 347 - 731:01 -> .937 -> 1.15 -> N/A
Hedberg TOTAL - 36 - 464 - 949:37 -> .922 -> 2.27 -> N/A

SITUATION - G - SA - TOI -> SV% -> GAA60 -> GAA2
(GAA60 = GAA in 60 minutes; GAA2 = GAA in 2 minutes)
Pavelec PK - 11 - 134 - 130:13 -> .918 -> 5.07 -> 0.17
Pavelec PP - 2 - 20 - 115:01 -> .900 -> 1.04 -> 0.03
Pavelec EV - 54 - 589 - 982:02 -> .908 -> 3.30 -> N/A
Pavelec TOTAL - 67 - 743 - 1227:16 -> .910 -> 3.28 -> N/A

Hedberg spends 11,38% of his TOI killing penalties, 11,64% PP, 76,98% EV
Pavelec spends 10,61% of his TOI killing penalties, 9,37% PP, 80,02% EV

Hedberg faces 22,20% of his SA during PK, 2,69% PP, 74,78% EV
Pavelec faces 18,03% of his SA during PK, 3,02% PP, 79,27% EV

------------------------------------------------------
CONCLUSION:
------------------------------------------------------

Both thrive when they face 30+ shots but suck when it's less than 30. Hedberg is better than Pavelec when he faces 30+ shots but defense seems to be more responsible with him (he sees 5 less shots on average) thus he plays lots of less than 30 shots games.

The other thing is Hedberg faces more shots during PK but he's certainly not as good at stopping them (.864 SV% vs Pavelec's .918 SV%). When it comes to even strength Hedberg dominates (.937 SV%, 1.15 GAA), Pavelec not so much (.908 SV%, 3.30 GAA)

What do you think?

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Old
12-23-2009, 04:41 PM
  #23
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The increased shots against on Pavelec is likely due to his rebound control, which is not as good as Hedbergs....but I think that is a skill that comes with age and experience more than anything else.

I also think that Hedberg may be hurt on the PK due to his aggressive nature. Not just his poke checking, he sometimes overcommits and does not have as good lateral movement as Pavelec.

Nice little breakdown crabcz

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12-23-2009, 05:28 PM
  #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by crabcz View Post
CONCLUSION:
------------------------------------------------------

Both thrive when they face 30+ shots but suck when it's less than 30. Hedberg is better than Pavelec when he faces 30+ shots but defense seems to be more responsible with him (he sees 5 less shots on average) thus he plays lots of less than 30 shots games.

The other thing is Hedberg faces more shots during PK but he's certainly not as good at stopping them (.864 SV% vs Pavelec's .918 SV%). When it comes to even strength Hedberg dominates (.937 SV%, 1.15 GAA), Pavelec not so much (.908 SV%, 3.30 GAA)

What do you think?

I think you did a very nice job with the numbers. Thank you for taking the time to compile.


I was most intrigued by your assessment that the defense seems to play better in front of Hedberg than Pavelec. I'm not sure its worth combing the data again but I'd be interested to see a comparison of opponents.

Which tender sees the better opposition?

Does a pattern emerge where the shots allowed are less/greater than the opposition average for a specific goaler?

Is there enough data to compare the goaltender against the same opponent in the same venue? Since performance night to night is too much of a variable I'm not sure this will prove anything but still makes for interesting comparison.

Regardless, thanks for the food for thought

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12-23-2009, 05:32 PM
  #25
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Thanks for the work!!

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