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Old
12-14-2009, 11:13 AM
  #26
HandshakeLine
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And that's probably the best case scenario, actually.
Yeah, really. Welcome to a cap-league, guys. We screamed for it, now we get to deal with it.

That said, we're obviously going to be forced to sacrifice someone, be it Staal, Letang, Gonchar etc. in order to field a more balanced team next year and to stay competitive.

While it'd be nice to keep Letang and Gonchar, I think Sarge's age, injuries, and price are ultimately going to make it necessary to bite a short term bullet and make a move for the future.

I also think Zippo's right-- while Gonchar's production has been decent, he's also not the power play catalyst he was only a few seasons ago. People can argue that it's the change in personel in other roles on the power play that's making the difference, and that's fine. But the fact of the matter is, keeping Gonchar may very well keep us from upgrading those positions for another year. Which means, we're going to be given a large, healthy look at the worst power play in the league again, if that's truly the cause of the special teams misery.

Given that scenario, I'd rather have a less mobile 3rd pairing, and promote Goligoski and use that 5 million in cap space to shore up other areas of the lineup where we don't have the luxury of surplus.

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12-14-2009, 11:22 AM
  #27
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I'd also like to mention that, if Letang wants to play hardball with the negotiations, there's always the possibility that the Pens use him as trade bait or let him walk via offer sheet. In which case, not signing Gonchar to an extension would be suicide, and I suppose we'd hope for Depres to make a push for the squad in two seasons or so, as we'd need cheap, puck moving defensemen.

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12-14-2009, 11:26 AM
  #28
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As much as I'd love to see Sarge stay for a couple more years, I honestly don't see it happening. Like it or not, the Pens would rather invest that money into another rather large piece of the team's future like Letang, rather than into a soon to be 35 year old one-dimensional blueliner that is in the tail end of his career. Unless Gonchar decides to stick around for slightly over 3 million per season (MAX), then i'm personally not on board for any deal, especially when we still have a winger issue to address.

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12-14-2009, 11:31 AM
  #29
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As much as I'd love to see Sarge stay for a couple more years, I honestly don't see it happening. Like it or not, the Pens would rather invest that money into another rather large piece of the team's future like Letang, rather than into a soon to be 35 year old one-dimensional blueliner that is in the tail end of his career. Unless Gonchar decides to stick around for slightly over 3 million per season (MAX), then i'm personally not on board for any deal, especially when we still have a winger issue to address.
That's the issue. If you could magically get Gonchar to take 5.5 million for 2 years and sign Letang for 3 per, the Gonchar-Letang situation could probably resolved pretty easily. That'd leave us with around 4.5 million to upgrade the wings, which, if we assume that either Tangradi or Caputi can take one of the top line wings, we could actually go out and get a high-profile winger.

But that's almost certainly wishful thinking on my part. Another problem with Gonchar is you can't use length to get his cap hit down, thanks to the 35+ rule.

The other great white hope out there is to hope that the cap goes up a couple million for next season. However, I don't really expect that to happen.

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12-14-2009, 11:42 AM
  #30
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Originally Posted by Tony66 View Post
As much as I'd love to see Sarge stay for a couple more years, I honestly don't see it happening. Like it or not, the Pens would rather invest that money into another rather large piece of the team's future like Letang, rather than into a soon to be 35 year old one-dimensional blueliner that is in the tail end of his career. Unless Gonchar decides to stick around for slightly over 3 million per season (MAX), then i'm personally not on board for any deal, especially when we still have a winger issue to address.
If we are going to use the cap space to get a winger, I'd rather trade for Versteeg or Sharp(I think CHI will try and keep him if possible) having looked at the FA crop. If we could lock up Ponikarovsky for a few years at around 3 million that'd be a good deal. Rene Bourque would be nice but I expect him to get re-signed by Calgary. Stempniak might be worth a look on a one year deal. I can see Svatos being available for Afinogenov money.

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12-14-2009, 11:45 AM
  #31
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I wouldn't mind seeing Shero do a little "on-the-fly" retooling this offseason. There are exactly 3 guys on this team right now that are constants.

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12-14-2009, 11:47 AM
  #32
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Originally Posted by wej20 View Post
If we are going to use the cap space to get a winger, I'd rather trade for Versteeg or Sharp(I think CHI will try and keep him if possible) having looked at the FA crop. If we could lock up Ponikarovsky for a few years at around 3 million that'd be a good deal. Rene Bourque would be nice but I expect him to get re-signed by Calgary. Stempniak might be worth a look on a one year deal. I can see Svatos being available for Afinogenov money.
As a Chicago resident, I've gotta say that the Hawks will almost certainly try to keep a hold on Sharp. Versteeg's an option, but I'm not sure what it'd take to pry him away-- we don't have a lot of players that Chicago's looking for.

Also, if they manage to move Campbell, their cap situation changes dramatically.

Stempniak I'm not sure is worth the trouble even for a one-year deal, and I'd certainly steer clear of Svatos.

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12-14-2009, 11:49 AM
  #33
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Here's a list of UFA forwards taken from the Trade board that are even remotely applicable in terms of age, performance and salary:

PlayerAgeLast Team2009/10 CapNew Team2010/11 CapTerm
Afinogenov, Maxim30ATL$800,000---------
Whitney, Ray37CAR$3,550,000---------
Bourque, Rene28CGY$1,350,000---------
Svatos, Marek27COL$2,050,000---------
Frolov, Alexander27LAK$2,900,000---------
Higgins, Chris26NYR$2,250,000---------
Fedotenko, Ruslan30PIT$1,800,000---------
Tanguay, Alex30TBL$2,500,000---------
Stempniak, Lee26TOR$2,500,000---------
Ponikarovsky, Alexei29TOR$2,105,000---------

Slim pickings. And to be honest the options aren't much better if we move into the 3-5M range.

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12-14-2009, 11:57 AM
  #34
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I'd take a gander at Backes.

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12-14-2009, 12:00 PM
  #35
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I'd take a gander at Backes.
I think he'd fit here as well... could do a lot worse than to get a young talent like that who could potentially be here a long time.

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12-14-2009, 12:05 PM
  #36
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Backes is signed through next season, would have to be a trade.

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12-14-2009, 12:12 PM
  #37
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Originally Posted by wej20 View Post
Kunitz (3.75) Crosby(8.7)
Talbot(1.05) Malkin (8.7)
Dupuis(1.4) Staal (4.0) Kennedy (0.725)
Rupp(0.85) Adams(0.55) Godard (0.75)
13th forward(0.500) 30.975

Orpik(3.75) Gonchar(4.0)
Eaton(2.0) Letang(3.5)
Gogo(1.8) Lovejoy(0.8)
7th dman(0.5) 16.35

Fleury (5.0)
Back up (0.525) 5.525

assuming Tangradi fills in one of the top 6 spots that leaves us between 2-3 mill to spend on a winger. That would put us in the Fedex, Stempniak, Svatos, Torres and Higgins FA Bracket
I think it's going to take more than $16.35 million to lock up the defense with Sarge, Letang and Eaton all coming back. Eaton has been outstanding the last two seasons, and there is every reason to believe that he'll get something close to what Scuderi or Orpik received when they became UFAs. And he's not 35+, so teams might decide that Eaton is now healthy enough to give a 4-5 year deal to. So, I think we cannot assume we can get him back for $2 million/year. Sarge MIGHT be had for $4 million, but for how many years? Anything more than a 1-year deal is scary. As for Letang, $3.5 million is potentially spot on, but I'd like to see us sign him for as long as possible. 15 years doesn't sound too scary to me, especially if the cap goes down by $2 million.

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12-14-2009, 12:13 PM
  #38
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Originally Posted by JTG32005 View Post
I wouldn't mind seeing Shero do a little "on-the-fly" retooling this offseason. There are exactly 3 guys on this team right now that are constants.
When you say constants, do you mean consistent? If so, I'd argue the three most consistent Penguins this season have been Crosby, Dupuis and Eaton.

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12-14-2009, 12:15 PM
  #39
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As a Chicago resident, I've gotta say that the Hawks will almost certainly try to keep a hold on Sharp. Versteeg's an option, but I'm not sure what it'd take to pry him away-- we don't have a lot of players that Chicago's looking for.

Also, if they manage to move Campbell, their cap situation changes dramatically.

Stempniak I'm not sure is worth the trouble even for a one-year deal, and I'd certainly steer clear of Svatos.
I guess Stempniak depends on the money, if he is available for around a million then he might be worth a shot. Versteeg maybe something centred around 2nd + Strait + Something else, but I'm sure we'd be outbid. Ladd might be available but he's not having a great year statistically. Canucks might have a winger going spare with the guys on the tradre board suggesting Samuelsson.

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Backes is signed through next season, would have to be a trade.
I don't think we could get Backes as they'd want to use him to get Gogo or Letang off us, I don't think they'd trade him for picks and prospects.

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12-14-2009, 12:22 PM
  #40
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Originally Posted by Jag68Sid87 View Post
I think it's going to take more than $16.35 million to lock up the defense with Sarge, Letang and Eaton all coming back. Eaton has been outstanding the last two seasons, and there is every reason to believe that he'll get something close to what Scuderi or Orpik received when they became UFAs. And he's not 35+, so teams might decide that Eaton is now healthy enough to give a 4-5 year deal to. So, I think we cannot assume we can get him back for $2 million/year. Sarge MIGHT be had for $4 million, but for how many years? Anything more than a 1-year deal is scary. As for Letang, $3.5 million is potentially spot on, but I'd like to see us sign him for as long as possible. 15 years doesn't sound too scary to me, especially if the cap goes down by $2 million.
With the Eaton situation I'm kind of hoping that he repays Shero for the faith on his last deal but you're right I could easily see him getting 3 mil from someone in the summer. If Eaton wants to test FA then we could try and use the money on Mckee instead. The Sarge situation is an interesting one as we don't know how long he wants to play for? and whether he wants to stay competitive or just earn the big bucks? If he wants to play on a competitive team I don't think he would be able to get much over 4 contract wise. I'm guessing Letang gets a 5 year deal max but most probably 3 or 4. Crosby and Malkin only got 5 year deals I doubt Shero would offer Letang more years than them.

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12-14-2009, 12:24 PM
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When you say constants, do you mean consistent? If so, I'd argue the three most consistent Penguins this season have been Crosby, Dupuis and Eaton.
I think he means Crosby, Malkin and Fleury are the only Pens who aren't available at any price.

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12-14-2009, 12:32 PM
  #42
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A 3-year contract would be ideal as it would leave Letang as RFA when it expires (26 years old, 6 seasons played). Now if Gogo signed for 1.83 per, anything under a 3 million cap hit would be good for us.

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12-14-2009, 12:35 PM
  #43
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Ladd is an interesting choice-- last year I was hoping for Tuomo Ruutu, since I think he'd be great in our top 6, but Ladd has a lot of potential. I don't know if he'd be available though, and his weak statistical year will only give Chicago more room in RFA negotiations.

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12-14-2009, 12:38 PM
  #44
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Originally Posted by Jag68Sid87 View Post
When you say constants, do you mean consistent? If so, I'd argue the three most consistent Penguins this season have been Crosby, Dupuis and Eaton.
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I think he means Crosby, Malkin and Fleury are the only Pens who aren't available at any price.
Precisely.

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12-14-2009, 02:26 PM
  #45
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Backes is signed through next season, would have to be a trade.
Better that possibly than just settling for whoever is FA. Better to get right fit IOW. Backes hasn't had a great start to his his (and is apparently known for slow starts) but other than that he is a pretty ideal fit and probably wouldn't cost us a big-time player to get him. The problem is St. Louis can't score to save their lives this year, so most likely they'd want to trade for offense as well. I suppose an early pick + a decent role player is a possibility.

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12-14-2009, 02:35 PM
  #46
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Better that possibly than just settling for whoever is FA. Better to get right fit IOW. Backes hasn't had a great start to his his (and is apparently known for slow starts) but other than that he is a pretty ideal fit and probably wouldn't cost us a big-time player to get him. The problem is St. Louis can't score to save their lives this year, so most likely they'd want to trade for offense as well. I suppose an early pick + a decent role player is a possibility.
Vellieux + 1st + Dupuis.

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12-14-2009, 03:35 PM
  #47
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Regarding Gonchar,
something we may be overlooking is the KHL factor. When Sarge suits up for Russia in the Olympics, do you think somebody from the KHL may approach and start getting in his ear about the possibility of playing over there next season? I hadn't thought about it at all, but it may be something to think about.

Ideally, we win it all again and let Sarge ride off into the sunset wherever he wants to go.

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12-14-2009, 04:03 PM
  #48
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Gonchar doesn't go to Russia in the off-season (he lives on some luxury island off Miami Beach) so who knows how much he still considers it home. And as for the money, there'll still be enough 5 million offers for him in the NHL if it doesn't work out with us. But I'm hoping he doesn't want to move around anymore and stays here for less.

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12-14-2009, 04:16 PM
  #49
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Gonchar doesn't go to Russia in the off-season (he lives on some luxury island off Miami Beach) so who knows how much he still considers it home. And as for the money, there'll still be enough 5 million offers for him in the NHL if it doesn't work out with us. But I'm hoping he doesn't want to move around anymore and stays here for less.
I was wondering if Florida would bid for him to mentor Kulikov, not sure if they could afford him but he'd be much closer to home.

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12-14-2009, 04:21 PM
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Gonchar doesn't go to Russia in the off-season (he lives on some luxury island off Miami Beach) so who knows how much he still considers it home. And as for the money, there'll still be enough 5 million offers for him in the NHL if it doesn't work out with us. But I'm hoping he doesn't want to move around anymore and stays here for less.
Yeah, but a lot of veteran Russians who were in North America for over a decade recently left to go back, too. Look at Sergei Fedorov, Viktor Kozlov, Sergei Zubov...those guys weren't back to Russia for years, but now they're all there. And they may all be on the Russian Olympic team. They'll talk to Sarge about their experience. If they are enjoying it, you never know.

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