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Responding to Garners article

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Old
12-16-2009, 05:13 PM
  #1
hockeyball
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Responding to Garners article

Didn't want to clutter up the news thread. Just wanted to do some analysis on what he wrote:


Heatley-Thornton-Marleau (21.1m)
vs
Marleau-Thornton-Setoguchi (14.9m)

- No brainer here, our top line now is better. Not that either is by any means bad. I think the Heatley move was more about profit (lowers team salary by 4 mil this season), merchandising, and negotiating leverage with Marleau/Seto (We don't 'need' you, we have Heatley, but if you want to stay...) than it was about improving the team.

Clowe-Pavelski-Setoguchi (6.6m)
vs
Michalek-Pavelski-Clowe (9.4m)

- Basically Michalek vs Seto. Improvement goal scoring wise, set back defensively. I think it's a bit of a draw and depends a lot on the makeup of the rest of the team. Keep in mind our most fundamental failure (among several) last post-season was goal scoring.

Ortmeyer-Nichol-Malhotra (1.8m)
vs
Cheechoo-Mitchell-Bernier (6.7m)

- You spend almost 4x as much and gain what? Let's talk about just Cheechoo and Ortmeyer here. Cheechoo has 3g 4a playing 1st and 2nd line minutes. Ortmeyer has 4g 4a playing no better than 3rd line minutes. When you factor in the ability to skate, forecheck, and kill penalties and Cheechoo costs 6x as much? No. Nichol is better than Mitchell right now, in everyway, and a third the price. Malhotra and Bernier are pretty much a wash offensively, but Malhotra is one of or few great defensive forwards and a third the price.


McLaren-Mitchell-McGinn (2.95m)
vs
McGinn-Goc-Grier (2.75)

- Grier is better than McClaren (but then again both rosters have McClaren) Mitchell is better than Goc (except in faceoffs). This one comes down to role, a defensive 4th line or a gritty all purpose line. I think talent wise they are pretty much a wash. Plus this is hard to judge since the 4th line is and was so fluid.

Shelley-Staubitz (1.25m)
vs
McLaren-Shelley (1.25m)

- I like McClaren vastly more than Staubitz, but this could just as easily be Plihal and Shelley or Vesce and Shelley, or how about Couture and Shelley (both of which we'd have either way).

Defensively i was finding it impossible to evaluate, so I mixed up the lines to make them easier to judge (not based on realistic pairings).

Boyle-Murray (9.2m)
vs
Carle-Murray (6m)

- Boyle is better than Carle, not even close. Boyle is the best defensemen in the NHL in my opinion. Top 5 at worst. Carle is having a great season playing with Pronger. I wish he was still on our team for sure, but in Huskins or Joslins place, which he is too expensive for on either roster.

Vlasic-Blake (6.6m)
vs
Vlasic-Ehrhoff (6.2m)

- Your lineup is superior in my opinion.

Huskins-Joslin (2.25m)
vs
Semenov-Rivet (4.5m)

- Yours is better, I love Rivet. I'd swap Semenov for Joslin to be honest though.

Leach (.25m)
vs
Davison (.5m)

- I'd take Leach at the price.

Total current roster: 57.95m

Total your roster: 58.15m

So your roster actually costs more (I did the math twice, capgeek) then our current roster. Is weaker offensively from top to bottom, and is marginally better defensively. Your just trading one problem for another sadly. I see what you were getting at, and I think some combination of the two is the best of both worlds, but it helped me think it through to work it out here.

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Old
12-16-2009, 07:14 PM
  #2
Domm
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you forgot to mention his point about the prospects possibly turning out great, which is speculation. I agree that it really is a wash with the D being slightly better on the bottom pairings and the O being better on the top pairings.

really I was just tired of goc though and it looks like he's doing better over in nashville. the new guys on the bottom half are doing great and I enjoy watching them. last year I felt the opposite about the bottom lines.

his article about setoguchi was a good read too.

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Old
12-17-2009, 02:36 AM
  #3
BrianSmith
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hockeyball, thank you for doing this. Garner's article did get my wheels turning and now you analysis has done it as well. Thanks, I love getting two opposing views and thinking it through.

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Old
12-17-2009, 03:57 PM
  #4
BrianSmith
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damn, im surprised nobody has said anything. i was looking forward to reading the back and forth arguments for and against!

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