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Old
12-22-2009, 03:15 PM
  #1
27theROCK
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Identify Who Fills Our Needs....

To try and come to grips with where we go from here we need to look at what we have locked in as far as guys that play well, we cant ship out and what fits. Here is how I personaly see our lineup and though you might not agree I think its safe to say this is pretty close (X designates open spots and Cap hits for next year):
Penner (4.25) -X - Hemmer (4.1)
X - Horcoff (5.5) - X
Stone (UFA) - Brule (RFA) - X
JFJ (RFA) - X - Stortini (0.7)

Smid (1.3) - Vishnovsky (5.6)
X - X
Chorney (.735) - X

Builin (3.75)
JDD (RFA)
Assets not listed:
Gagner - Is he a star, can he be more than just an average player?
Osullivan - Is there anyway to salvage his head?
Cogliano - Is he more than Todd Marchant?
Pisani - UFA at seasons end, walk away.
Nilsson - Right now looks like a great 2nd liner.. consistancy?
Moreau - Has already left the team.
Comrie - UFA at seasons end, probably walk away.
Pouliot - He might be an okay 3-4 line guy
Potulny - Great 13 forward.
Souray - Is struggling bad, paid like a #1
Gilbert - Good but not worth the coin.
Grebeshkov - In consistant, one day looks like top pair other days looks like PB guy.
Staios - His time has passed on this team.
Strudwick - Servicable 7 dman.
Dubnyk - Unproven enough to slip through waivers.
What we need to do is look look at the asset players and see if any of them are worth filling in the X's for next year. Cases obviously can be made for many but if we are wanting to change the dynamics its a question of can you trust them and does the money make sense. Im sure the biggest arguement is Gagner for #1 C but way the options of moving him vs the upside of having him...

We need to ask, can Eberle or MSP play in any of those spots and do we want them to?

From here we look at what we can unload those assets for and fill in the gaps.


Here is what I wouldnt mind seeing:

Eberle and MSP are in the minors.
Souray and Moreau to LA
for Jack Johnson and Mike Handzous
Handzous is 4.0 cap hit next year then a UFA and we gotta take contracts to dump ours.
Staios and Osullivan to Atlanta
for Boris Vlabik and 3rd
We dump salary and though we dont get a ton back Vlabik might be some strength on the back end and good stay at home guy.
Tom Gilbert to NY Isles
for 2nd and 3rd
NYI have alot of cap space and are losing Dman next year.
Andrew Cogliano, Denis Grebeshkov, Jeff Petry, 2nd to Philly
for Brayden Coburn and Scott Hartnell
Philly saves money and gets decent value.
Penner (4.25) -Gagner (RFA) - Hemmer (4.1)
Nilsson (2.0) - Horcoff (5.5) - Hartnell (4.2)
Stone (UFA) - Hanzous (4.0) - Brule (RFA)
JFJ (RFA) - Pouliot (RFA) - Stortini (0.7)
Potulny (RFA)

Smid (1.3) - Vishnovsky (5.6)
Jack Johnson (1.425) - Brayden Coburn (RFA)
Chorney (.735) - Boris Vlabik (0.775)
Strudwick (UFA)

Builin (3.75)
JDD (RFA)
Trades like this might not make us an instant contender but it at least gives us more flexibillity and weeds out some of the handcuffs this team has had. It also adds some size and hopefully can build into some sort of identity with this team.

Now you can dispute the actuall trades until the cows come home but I just wanted to show the essance of what needs to be done. identify those players that we need to move out and establish you core.

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12-22-2009, 03:30 PM
  #2
joestevens29
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I've said for awhile now move 3 of O'Sullivan,Nilsson, Comrie, Cogliano, and Gagner(prefer not to but depends who is coming back), move one of Gilbert/Grebs/Souray/Lubo. Holes that would need to be filled from trading those guys one shutdown d-man that can be a #3 and play PK, another top 6 that is bigger and doesn't get pushed around easily. Also in those trades get a god dam 3rd line center to play a shutdown role/pk role, although these should be something that is signed in the off-season.

I also look at upgrading Jacques/Moreau/Stone/Stortini. I have no issue if we have to keep a couple of them, but none of shown that they are much more then fourth liners and even that is borderline at times.

I think if we switch 4 or 5 guys around we should be a solid playoff team with a chance at winning a round. I'm not looking for blockbuster deals here either. Adding Stoll, Greene, Malhotra, Nichol would go a long freakin way.

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12-22-2009, 03:35 PM
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I am the Liquor
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Before we even fantasize about who we want to move a couple of questions need to be considered.

1. Which direction is management going to want to go?

-based on past years, the outlook is bleak for rebuilding.

2. What are other teams looking for?

-just because we want to get rid of them, doesnt mean anyone else is going to want our garbage.

In short, it will take a collective effort between management and ownership to make bold moves in a rebuild direction. I wouldnt hold my breath.

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12-22-2009, 03:40 PM
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27theROCK
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Quote:
Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
Before we even fantasize about who we want to move a couple of questions need to be considered.

1. Which direction is management going to want to go?

-based on past years, the outlook is bleak for rebuilding.

2. What are other teams looking for?

-just because we want to get rid of them, doesnt mean anyone else is going to want our garbage.

In short, it will take a collective effort between management and ownership to make bold moves in a rebuild direction. I wouldnt hold my breath.

I agree with you for sure. After listing all the players in the Asset section its kind of a step back to realize how much of a gong show this team has become. I think its reasonable to think we can move those guys, as I did in my mock, but at the end of the day its a 2 year project to do so not a tomorrow thing.

I think Tambo is trying to widdle some decent returns but in the end of the day we might just be better to take anything or nothing for some of them.

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12-22-2009, 03:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 27theROCK View Post
I agree with you for sure. After listing all the players in the Asset section its kind of a step back to realize how much of a gong show this team has become. I think its reasonable to think we can move those guys, as I did in my mock, but at the end of the day its a 2 year project to do so not a tomorrow thing.

I think Tambo is trying to widdle some decent returns but in the end of the day we might just be better to take anything or nothing for some of them.
Yes. Maybe even a three year plan, just as long as more mistakes are not made along the way. Magic eight ball says............ya right.

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12-22-2009, 03:48 PM
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joestevens29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
Yes. Maybe even a three year plan, just as long as more mistakes are not made along the way. Magic eight ball says............ya right.
I'm in the third year of my three year plan for the Oilers, this isn't how I expected it

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12-22-2009, 03:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joestevens29 View Post
I'm in the third year of my three year plan for the Oilers, this isn't how I expected it
Is that you Kevin?

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Old
12-22-2009, 03:50 PM
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Mentallydull
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 27theROCK View Post
To try and come to grips with where we go from here we need to look at what we have locked in as far as guys that play well, we cant ship out and what fits. Here is how I personaly see our lineup and though you might not agree I think its safe to say this is pretty close (X designates open spots and Cap hits for next year):
Penner (4.25) -X - Hemmer (4.1)
X - Horcoff (5.5) - X
Stone (UFA) - Brule (RFA) - X
JFJ (RFA) - X - Stortini (0.7)

Smid (1.3) - Vishnovsky (5.6)
X - X
Chorney (.735) - X

Builin (3.75)
JDD (RFA)
Assets not listed:
Gagner - Is he a star, can he be more than just an average player?
Osullivan - Is there anyway to salvage his head?
Cogliano - Is he more than Todd Marchant?
Pisani - UFA at seasons end, walk away.
Nilsson - Right now looks like a great 2nd liner.. consistancy?
Moreau - Has already left the team.
Comrie - UFA at seasons end, probably walk away.
Pouliot - He might be an okay 3-4 line guy
Potulny - Great 13 forward.
Souray - Is struggling bad, paid like a #1
Gilbert - Good but not worth the coin.
Grebeshkov - In consistant, one day looks like top pair other days looks like PB guy.
Staios - His time has passed on this team.
Strudwick - Servicable 7 dman.
Dubnyk - Unproven enough to slip through waivers.
Sorry if I come across 'badly' here but it's Visnovsky, there's no 'h'. And no, I'm not just saying this to you, I'm saying this to everyone. That mystery 'h' is starting to show up here and there, maybe people are thinking of Vishnevski?

Anyways, that said...

From the list of players you haven't listed, I'd add...

Gagner for another year or two, to see if he improves.

O'Sullivan at a MUCH reduced price considering he's still a decent defensive forward.

Nilsson I'd wait until the end of the season to make a decision on him but either way, he shouldn't be making 2 mil/season.

I like Potulny, definitely give him another 2-3 years maybe around 1-1.5 mil per to show what he can do.

Grebeshkov needs to show more consistency (as you said), maybe around 2-2.5 mil per for another 2 years and see if he can get his act together - he's still pretty young.

Strudwick I definitely wouldn't mind keeping as a 6th/7th D-Man. He doesn't make gigantic mistakes and he's fairly solid, especially considering what he gets paid.

The rest of em can walk imo.

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12-22-2009, 04:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mentallydull View Post
Sorry if I come across 'badly' here but it's Visnovsky, there's no 'h'. And no, I'm not just saying this to you, I'm saying this to everyone. That mystery 'h' is starting to show up here and there, maybe people are thinking of Vishnevski?
Go figure that many people would make that mistake when everyone calls him Vish not Vis for short. But yes I am sure everyone is thinking Vishnevski.

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12-22-2009, 04:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
Before we even fantasize about who we want to move a couple of questions need to be considered.

1. Which direction is management going to want to go?

-based on past years, the outlook is bleak for rebuilding.

2. What are other teams looking for?

-just because we want to get rid of them, doesnt mean anyone else is going to want our garbage.

In short, it will take a collective effort between management and ownership to make bold moves in a rebuild direction. I wouldnt hold my breath.
That's key there. So many people on these forums talk as if salary dumping is the easiest thing. It's as if to them, NYI or PHX will automatically take any garbage at any price. If the Oil expect to dump a guy like Horcoff, unfortunately, it will probably have to also come with a very valuable asset or a high pick (which is counter productive to a rebuild effort).

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12-22-2009, 04:42 PM
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27theROCK
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tsumetai View Post
That's key there. So many people on these forums talk as if salary dumping is the easiest thing. It's as if to them, NYI or PHX will automatically take any garbage at any price. If the Oil expect to dump a guy like Horcoff, unfortunately, it will probably have to also come with a very valuable asset or a high pick (which is counter productive to a rebuild effort).
I think Horcoff is probably the only one we would need to give for someone to take. The rest of the stuff I dont assume we would get much for but they are movable assets.

Guys like Moreau and Staios you would think possibly could go to a playoff team at the deadline and them alone clear up 4.7 million in cap. To me those are the two key pieces to move for us to have wiggle room and make some stuff happen.

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12-22-2009, 08:55 PM
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Some things will still need to play out. Does this finish in the bottom 3? That will effect someone on the team. Hall and Seguin will probably play for whoever drafts them. Can MPS come over next year? If he can that will add to the murkiness of anything as that will add another playmaker to the team.

This team regardless needs someone of some size, can shoot (preferably left handed) that can play on the 2nd line. This team is bereft of forwards that think shoot first. I wonder if Vandevelde is ready to make the jump?

The 3rd line needs to be totally revamped. Needs to get back of the mold of Moreau-Marchant-Grier of the early part of the decade. If we still had Glencross, Moreau would probably be already gone. But since the Oilers don't, and they don't have anyone like Moreau, they are screwed.

I think Jacques-Stortini is 2/3 of the 4th line. Whats needed is a physical Brodziak to center that line.

Even with the recent struggles I am still fine with a top 4 D pairing Souray-Gilbert, Smid-Visnovsky. I think Grebeshkov and Staios should be on their way, too high risk. Need to have a more stable 3rd D pairing that makes just safe plays.


Last edited by DangerMan: 12-22-2009 at 09:13 PM.
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12-23-2009, 12:20 AM
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Believe it or not, there are players within the organization and on the current team to build the team around for the upcoming new decade. (ages in brackets)

Penner 27 - 1st round pick - Hemsky 26
Paajarvi 18 - Gagner 20 - Eberle 19
Cogliano 22 - Potulny 25 - Brule 22
Jacques 24 - O'Marra 22 - Stortini 24

Smid 23 - Gilbert 26
Peckham 22 - Petry 22
Chorney 22 - Plante 20

Deslauriers 25

As you can see the future is brighter than most would think, especially if that first round pick turns out to be a franchise player like Seguin.

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12-23-2009, 02:33 AM
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If we want the current rebuild to work and to improve this team so that they're further along in their rebuild, this is what I think they need to do:

1. Identify players that they have an abundance of (puck-moving d-men, vets who should be leaders but are passengers instead and small, skilled forwards)
2. Identify glaring team needs (3rd line centre, top-4 stay at home D, veteran leadership)
3. Trade the abundance the Oilers have in return for players who address team needs.

It sounds simple, but I really think it is. One would've thought it would be simple logic to sign a centre who could win faceoffs this off-season, ESPECIALLY after trading Brodziak......and there were an abundance of them. But nothing.

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Old
12-23-2009, 02:47 AM
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Frolov, Jokinen, Marleau, off the top of my head are guy who help in an area we need help. Scoring, veteran presence. Size.

The bottom six could use some fine tuning as well. I like Jaques, Stone, Stortini and moreau but thats too much of one type of player. Adding a guy like Blair Betts or Manny Malhotra would help.

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12-23-2009, 03:30 AM
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12-23-2009, 07:02 AM
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Players I would keep are:

Penner X Hemsky
Brule Gagner X
Stone Potulny X
JFJ X Stortini

Visnovsky Smid
X X
Chorney Peckham
Strudzy

Bulin
Dubnyk

I know it is not all possible due to contracts and lack of trades, etc. But I would part with Horcoff, Nilsson, O'Sullivan, Cogliano, Staios, Moreau and Pisani. Pisani you can let go...he might retire as an FA, he might sign a 1 year somewhere else, but he is the only one i might consider keeping at 1 mill. I believe players like Nilsson, O'Sullivan and Cogliano are very tradeable...Nilsson especially if he keeps on keeping on for a while. Horcoff could be traded if another bad contract comes back. So I would fill the holes with:

1st line centre - Phone Holmgren and grab Carter before anyone else does
2nd line winger - could bring Hartnell in with Carter if you send enough the other way
3rd line winger - needs to be a proper defensive forward like Eric Belanger, Brett Mclean or Steve Ott, Jeff Halpern(who are all UFA this year), could change with Potulny to centre
4th line centre - one position could belong to Pouliot if he is not dumped, but better some vet through a trade, such as Marcel Goc or the like, someone to help re-establish the PK

2nd line defense - I am open to keeping Grebeshkov because I am a huge fan, although I know his ups and downs!...so if keeping him, then the other side should be full-on defensive...and well established (as opposed to Smid and Peckham). Someone like Michalek in PHX or Nick Schultz in MIN, or Douglas Murray in SJ.

That would make a lineup of this:
Penner Carter Hemsky
Brule Gagner Hartnell
Stone Ott Potulny
JFJ Goc Stortini

Visnovsky Smid
Grebeshkov Michalek
Chorney Peckham
Strudzy

Bulin
Dubnyk

I think it is a lot more balanced, and based on my calculations, we dump about 18 million, and add back about 14.5, leaving about 3.5 million in raises for RFAs such as Gagner, Potulny, Brule, etc.

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12-23-2009, 07:09 AM
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oilers are missing a shut down d man and a goto guy who can pop 30-40 on a regular basis

no team is currently shopping playres that fill those roles

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12-23-2009, 10:02 AM
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Go figure that many people would make that mistake when everyone calls him Vish not Vis for short. But yes I am sure everyone is thinking Vishnevski.
I've never heard him called "Vish". Ever.

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12-23-2009, 10:07 AM
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Originally Posted by greatgazoo View Post
Believe it or not, there are players within the organization and on the current team to build the team around for the upcoming new decade. (ages in brackets)

Penner 27 - 1st round pick - Hemsky 26
Paajarvi 18 - Gagner 20 - Eberle 19
Cogliano 22 - Potulny 25 - Brule 22
Jacques 24 - O'Marra 22 - Stortini 24

Smid 23 - Gilbert 26
Peckham 22 - Petry 22
Chorney 22 - Plante 20

Deslauriers 25

As you can see the future is brighter than most would think, especially if that first round pick turns out to be a franchise player like Seguin.

I agree, we have a really nice core of talented young guys. The thing is we also have a ton of loaded contractracts that are a huge detrement to this team and its also worth noting that it might be a wise move to move some talent for a proven comodity ie a true #1 player.

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12-23-2009, 10:17 AM
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Originally Posted by jumptheshark View Post
oilers are missing a shut down d man and a goto guy who can pop 30-40 on a regular basis

no team is currently shopping playres that fill those roles
*ding *ding *ding this is exactly what we need... though I would argue that it isnt impossible for us to do this via trade or develope our own.

30-40 goal scorer: currently we have no one that fits the bill minus Penner. Does anyone actually think Gagner or Cogliano will be this guy? I dont. I think we possibly could have one of them in Eberle or MSP but again thats a gamble... possibly worth playing out though. Why not move a Gagner or a Cogs or both to try to get that player? All reports are Jeff Carter is being shopped and if hes not there are lots of possibilities out there. The biggest thing with that will be juggling our garbage contracts that Lowe has strapped us with.

Shutdown Dman: To me this is a huge problem becuase our team doesnt have someone who can do this nor do we have someone in the pipeline who is going to potentially develope into this guy. Smid is about as close as we have and while I like him we need someone elite in that role as well. I guess this is why a TO overpays to get a guy like Komi on the FA wire. We might have to look at getting a second tier shutdown guy (Douglas Murrays of the world, though he is going no where!) and really look at using a top pick on a dman.

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12-23-2009, 10:30 AM
  #22
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Originally Posted by Mentallydull View Post
I've never heard him called "Vish". Ever.
So that's why everyone looks at me funny when I yell "FISHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH HH" from my seats every time he touches the puck?

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12-23-2009, 10:52 AM
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So that's why everyone looks at me funny when I yell "FISHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH HH" from my seats every time he touches the puck?
Hopefully it's that and not the smell

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12-23-2009, 12:20 PM
  #24
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I'd like us to trade for two Russians:

EDM- Kovalchuk (would prefer extension but considering were losing 11M in salary I'd be fine with this)
ATL- Gilbert + Horcoff + Nilsson

and

OTT- Cogliano
EDM- Volchenkov (on an extension) + Pick

Gives us a franchise forward to build around and a shutdown d-man!

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12-23-2009, 01:24 PM
  #25
27theROCK
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Originally Posted by Agent Zero View Post
I'd like us to trade for two Russians:

EDM- Kovalchuk (would prefer extension but considering were losing 11M in salary I'd be fine with this)
ATL- Gilbert + Horcoff + Nilsson

and

OTT- Cogliano
EDM- Volchenkov (on an extension) + Pick

Gives us a franchise forward to build around and a shutdown d-man!
Your not giving up enough in any deal. Atlanta would rather just let Kovy walk then take on 11 million of that salary. A signed Kovy would cost alot better assets than that... though he would still be worth it IMO.

The Sens would laugh that one off. Cogs value is as low as it has ever been right now though he is still a great asset.

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