Remember guys, BEST SHOT...Not who is going to break it in the NHL currently, I want to know who you think would have the best chance to come close and challenge the record...Keep in mind the age of your choice..
First off, I really doubt he will come close to 130. He is old now and I dont think he will keep up the pace. 115-120 is more likely imo.
Anyone in the game right now will not come very close to what he has done.. as for those who might come close I can see Lundqvist gather a good amount of shotouts when his career is done. I believe both him and Luongo will have about 70-80 SO when their respective careers are over.
Steve Mason probably has the best shot of all the goalies in the league right now based on the fact he got ten as a 20 year old last year. I highly, highly doubt that anyone comes even close to the record but I give him the best shot.
Remember guys, BEST SHOT...Not who is going to break it in the NHL currently, I want to know who you think would have the best chance to come close and challenge the record...Keep in mind the age of your choice..
Luongo already has 49 SO and if he plays the rest of his contract,12 years say he gets an average of 5 SO a year that equals 60 +49= 109 probably not going to catch Brodeur but will be the closest IMO.
Off that list? Hmm, maybe Luongo? But no one else. The other goalies either started out in the NHL a little too late. Other notables might be Mason. But the jury isn't out on him yet. He had 9 shutouts last year but he's mirred in a terrible sophomore slump. Fleury would have had a good shot at it but he might have a better shot at the wins record than the shutouts. The Pens play much the way the early '90s Pens played where a shutout wasn't what the team revolved around.
Brodeur was/is a great goalie and nothing should be taken away from him but he had a luxury of having Jacques Lemaire in there early in his career who helped put his stamp of approval on the trap happy NHL even after he left New Jersey in 1998. I'll give Brodeur credit but I'll also give credit to the Devils team all those years who helped put most of us in comas with their "wait for the first mistake" style.
Again nothing against Brodeur, he's #5 all time for me among goalies, but even the other night when the Devils won 4-0 the Pens announcer was talking about how New Jersey manages to suck up the emotion of a hockey game. He wasn't lying to anyone who watches the Devils
Firstly, Congrats to Marty on his Record 104th Career Shutout..
This poll is after Marty is retired, say 5 years (give or take), and his shutouts are around 130 (based on about 5 SO/year)..
Who do you think has the best chance at breaking Martin Brodeurs career Shutout record of 130(ish) shutouts?
you really expect Brodeur to keep playing for another 5 years?
he's already 37... that's close to retirement age... but lets assume he plays another 3 years - so he retires after 40, which is already pushing it.
he averages about .1 shutouts/game... if he's got another 3 years, plus the rest of this season, that will be around 185 games (assuming he remains healthy now moving forward, which he hasn't been the past couple years now).
so best case, I think you're looking at another 18 shutouts - and that's assuming he plays at the same level for another 3 seasons and doesn't retire until 40, while remaining healthy through that time... and IMO all of that is a longshot at this point in his career.
So if you're giving him the benefit of the doubt, that's a total of 122 shutouts by the time he's done - and again, that's very optimistic overall.
The closest is probably Luongo, considering his past history (49 shutouts) and playing in his prime years now... he is 30, so let's give him the same consideration we gave Brodeur - plays till 40, stays healthy, and generates shutouts at the same pace as he is now (.0854/game)...
at that pace, playing the rest of his career with the same consistency he is now, and assuming he stays just as healthy and consistent to 40 as we're expecting Brodeur to, it would leave Luongo with approx. 113 shutouts.
That's the closest you'll get IMO.
the reality though is that the league is getting more offensive, and as such we'll see fewer shutouts, so neither goalie will keep up their career pace till the retirement, making Brodeur's record almost as safe as Gretzky's point record.
Luongo and Miller are too old and too far behind already.
It would have to be one of the really young guys. Agree that Steve Mason has probably the best shot, but only if Columbus builds a good stable team aroudn him.
It's probably going to be tougher because they're going to keep trying to find ways to increase goal scoring. The dead puck era produced a lot of SO's.
Luongo and Miller are too old and too far behind already.
It would have to be one of the really young guys. Agree that Steve Mason has probably the best shot, but only if Columbus builds a good stable team aroudn him.
Luongo has 49 career SO,if he plays 12 more year and gets about an average of 5 SO a year he will be pretty close.
Whoever can play in another dead puck era on a great defensive team.
Not to say that Brodeur hasn't been a very good goalie, but it does have a lot to do with this. As another addition to his play, though, you have to look at his consistency and number of starts. He had his first major injury last year, in his late 30s. The Devils have always played him a far above average number of times compared to other starters. The mix of the dead puck era, that kind of consistency, and a great goalie (even if you, like me, think he's somewhate overrated and not one of the best all time), is quite the perfect storm. Even if there's another dead puck era, you'd need that combination to strike again.
Luongo and Miller are too old and too far behind already.
It would have to be one of the really young guys. Agree that Steve Mason has probably the best shot, but only if Columbus builds a good stable team aroudn him.
Through his age 29 season, Luongo had 47 shutouts.
Through his age 29 season, Brodeur had 55 shutouts.
And that was with Luongo missing a full season because of the lockout, meaning that Luongo has essentially a free season to make up some of that gap, assuming no future work stoppages.
Having said that Brodeur piled up a ton of shutouts in his early thirties, which will make it awfully tough for Luongo to keep up. I'd say it is unlikely Luongo catches up to Brodeur's eventual total, but I wouldn't completely write him off the way I would, for example, Miller or Nabokov. It depends how long he is able to play at a high level and whether he stays injury-free or not.
