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Avs "Aggressively" Pursuing Ilya Kovalchuk/Liles Being shopped

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Old
12-24-2009, 08:29 PM
  #51
Adama0905
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NWAvsFan View Post
I think it is going to take more than Wolski and Jones to get Kovi in a trade. I think you are probably looking at those two, and 1st or 2nd round pick, and a non roster prospect. Nobody is going to trade a top level talent for a streaky emerging player and a promising but unproven winger. I also would add that I don't look at the roster you posted and see visions of a cup. Later in their careers Duchene will be a 1st line start and Stewart may but that time has not come yet. I say no to Kovi.
Personally I think we need to step back and see how Wolski does the whole season, before we look at his trade value. Fact is, if Wolski is a ppg player really, Kovy's point production tops out at fifteen points more. That's really not all that much greater. And throwing a potential thirty goal scorer in there is something I wouldn't do.

Kovy isn't worth the depth that some of the users on here are throwing around. Everyone seems to think that he's worth a boatload of everything, and fact is he's not.

I say we play the waiting game before we throw in guys that aren't even topped out. Just not good.

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12-24-2009, 08:37 PM
  #52
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Originally Posted by ClericMercenaryAgent View Post
Unless he's guaranteed to sign I don't trade for Kovalchuk. The Avs aren't in a position with their assets to be taking big gambles right now. I'm all for it if we can lure him here as a UFA, but trading for him, especially if he doesn't sign, could set this franchise back quite a few years.
This exactly how the situation should be handled.

If they are going to make a deal, how about Svatos and Liles to Boston for Rask, or Liles to Buffalo for Pominville?

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12-24-2009, 08:44 PM
  #53
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Originally Posted by Bill Peckerskull View Post
This exactly how the situation should be handled.

If they are going to make a deal, how about Svatos and Liles to Boston for Rask, or Liles to Buffalo for Pominville?
2nd one is realistic but not necessary. First one, no chance.

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Old
12-24-2009, 09:16 PM
  #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NWAvsFan View Post
I think it is going to take more than Wolski and Jones to get Kovi in a trade. I think you are probably looking at those two, and 1st or 2nd round pick, and a non roster prospect. Nobody is going to trade a top level talent for a streaky emerging player and a promising but unproven winger. I also would add that I don't look at the roster you posted and see visions of a cup. Later in their careers Duchene will be a 1st line start and Stewart may but that time has not come yet. I say no to Kovi.
I never said it would only cost us Jones and Wolski. It probably cost something like:

Wolski
Jones
Hensick
descent prospect (Barrie, Cohen etc.)
1st

thats a pretty descent return for a player without a contract, even if we were guaranteed a contract that would still be a good fetch for ATL.

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12-24-2009, 11:20 PM
  #55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chet1926 View Post
I never said it would only cost us Jones and Wolski. It probably cost something like:

Wolski
Jones
Hensick
descent prospect (Barrie, Cohen etc.)
1st

thats a pretty descent return for a player without a contract, even if we were guaranteed a contract that would still be a good fetch for ATL.
Hensick has no value, Jones has little value, and the prospect is more of a throw in. Not a chance that deal gets done.

Right now, I would say the negotiations would start and Wolski, Shattenkirk, and our next two 1st rounders.

My guess is that no team is wiling to gamble at that price for the cup, so the potential suitors are just not there for a trade. Atlanta will have to try to sign him, sell him for a lot less, or simply let him go.

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12-24-2009, 11:37 PM
  #56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chet1926 View Post
Anyone who thinks that adding Kovalchuk is a bad idea needs to get their head examined. Kovalchuk is a top 4 player in this league possibly top 3 the way Malkin has played this year.

Kovalchuk>Stewart, Jones, Wolski combined (sorry thats just the way it is)

You are not going to have to give up all 3 of those players to get Kovalchuk. Hypothetically lets say, Wolski and Jones get traded and we keep Stewart. You could still field this lineup...

Kovalchuk-Duchene-Stewart
Galiardi-Stastny-Hejduk
Stoa-O'Reilly-Mcleod
Yip-Hendricks-Mercier

Hannan-Quincey
Cumiskey-Wilson
Shattenkirk-Elliott (we might keep Liles and Foote might come back another year)

Anderson

You're telling me that the above mentioned team couldn't compete for a Cup. That team could easily compete with any team in the league.

Obviously if Kovalchuk gets a contract like 11mil per year then its not worth it, its too much money wrapped up in one player but if you can negotiate a approx 8 mil a year contract then there really is no downside.

You don't win the cup without marquee players. The Avs don't have those type of players any more adding Kovalchuk would instantaneously make Stastny and Duchene better players and they are both good players to begin with. For that matter Kovalchuk would make everyone better players because teams would gameplan around Kovalchuk giving everyone more room to maneuver and become better players.

You people are crazy to not want Kovalchuk. As long as it doesn't cost us an arm an a leg. I'm realistic I know you are going to have to give up some assets to get a player like that.

If we could work a deal where we sent...Wolski, Jones, Hensick, ok prospect like Barrie or Cohen, and a 1st for Kovalchuk and a 2nd I take it and run.

Just playing devil's advocate here....but take that lineup minus Kovy.

XXXXXX-Duchene-Stewart
Galiardi-Stastny-Hejduk
Stoa-O'Reilly-Mcleod
Yip-Hendricks-Mercier

Hannan-Quincey
Cumiskey-Wilson
Shattenkirk-Elliott (we might keep Liles and Foote might come back another year)

Anderson


.......plus take away 2010 #1 or whatever draft picks you think they'd take....

How does that trade look now? Because there's a risk they give up all this and don't resign him.

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12-25-2009, 12:24 AM
  #57
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Originally Posted by scott76 View Post
Just playing devil's advocate here....but take that lineup minus Kovy.

XXXXXX-Duchene-Stewart
Galiardi-Stastny-Hejduk
Stoa-O'Reilly-Mcleod
Yip-Hendricks-Mercier

Hannan-Quincey
Cumiskey-Wilson
Shattenkirk-Elliott (we might keep Liles and Foote might come back another year)

Anderson


.......plus take away 2010 #1 or whatever draft picks you think they'd take....

How does that trade look now? Because there's a risk they give up all this and don't resign him.
you obviously don't pull the trigger unless you know Kovalchuk resigns. we would give away too much, for just a couple of games of Kovalchuk, then I would think the trade was retarded. but if you get him for the next 8-10 years you do it for sure.

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12-25-2009, 12:36 AM
  #58
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Originally Posted by hockeyfish View Post
Hensick has no value, Jones has little value, and the prospect is more of a throw in. Not a chance that deal gets done.

Right now, I would say the negotiations would start and Wolski, Shattenkirk, and our next two 1st rounders.

My guess is that no team is wiling to gamble at that price for the cup, so the potential suitors are just not there for a trade. Atlanta will have to try to sign him, sell him for a lot less, or simply let him go.
I agree Hensick has little to no value but Jones probably has descent value, Wolski has tons of value.

Take a look at the Hossa deal from ATL to Pitts.

ATL:
Armstrong
Christensen
Esposito
1st

Pitts:
Dupuis
Hossa

Kovalchuk would command more in my opinion but

Wolski
Jones
Hensick
Elliott or Barrie or even Stoa (we have some descent prospects not named Shattenkirk that can be included in this deal)
1st

probably gets it done, you keep the most important core players intact Staz, Duchene, O'Reilly, Galiardi, Stewart, Shattenkirk. Plus ATL doesn't get screwed and gets some value.

obviously I wouldn't give ATL that good of a package unless I knew Kovalchuk could be signed to a long term deal.

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Old
12-25-2009, 01:04 AM
  #59
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chet1926 View Post
obviously I wouldn't give ATL that good of a package unless I knew Kovalchuk could be signed to a long term deal.
Absolutely. No way you give them that kind of bounty unless they grant the Avalanche a window to negotiate a contract extension with Kovalchuk after the trade has been agreed upon. If he's intent on hitting the UFA market on July 1st, then nevermind. But if they can get him locked into a long term contract upon acquiring him, it's a no brainer. He's a 26 year old elite player, those don't become available often. If it's realistic that he can be had, you get him.

Goodness, imagine a future of Kovalchuk playing on a line with the speed and playmaking of Matt Duchene next to him. Kovalchuk is also plenty experienced at playing the point on the power play and has the explosive shot that's been missing from there for the Avs since Blake left town.

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Old
12-25-2009, 02:13 AM
  #60
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Originally Posted by chet1926 View Post
Anyone who thinks that adding Kovalchuk is a bad idea needs to get their head examined. Kovalchuk is a top 4 player in this league possibly top 3 the way Malkin has played this year.

If we could work a deal where we sent...Wolski, Jones, Hensick, ok prospect like Barrie or Cohen, and a 1st for Kovalchuk and a 2nd I take it and run.

Let me see if I can break this down for you here. Let's assume a few things here. Let's assume the deal doesn't go down unless Kovy already agrees to a contract with the Avs. Lets assume for the sake of argument his deal is a long one that brings down the cap a bit to $7 M. This is fairly generous given what appears to be his demands. Lets also assume Hannan is resigned, or someone else is signed in his place for the same money listed below. If we take out Liles, Wolski, and Jones, here's a rough estimate of what our roster and cap hit will be in three years, given there's almost no way Kovalchuk signs for less than three, and likely wants five or more.

Kovalchuk - $7 M
Stastny - $6.6 M
Duchene - $6.6 M (Will likely use Stastny's contract as comparison and rightfully so)
Anderson - $5 M (Could be higher depending on his play next year, and/or in the playoffs.)
Quincey - $4.2 M (Probably get a similar contract to Liles as an RFA next summer)
O'Reilly - $3.75 M (Will use Jordan Staal's $4 M deal as comparison)
Stewart - $3.5 M (Will either get a one or two year deal next summer, so he has a chance at a bigger deal after that.)
Galiardi - $3.5 M
Hejduk - $3 M - (Or someone similar that will cost at least as much)
Hannan - $3 M (Or someone similar. This number could be higher.)
McLeod - $2.5 M
Wilson - $2 M (Will probably have an even better season next year with a bigger role, and sign a decent deal after that.)
Shattenkirk - $1 M (Will likely be in the final year of his first contract and due for a big raise.)
Budaj - $850 k (Or someone similar. Budaj is the perfect backup though IMO.)
Yip - $850 k (Will sign a one or two year deal next summer, for the same reasons as Stewart. This number could be higher.)
Carman - $750 k (Or whoever else makes the 4th line)
Hendricks - $650 k (Or someone similar)
Durno - $600 k (Or someone similar)
Last two depth forwards - $1.2 M ($600k each)

Total = $56,550,000

Kovalchuk - Stastny - Stewart
Galiardi - Duchene - Hejduk
McLeod - O'Reilly - Yip
Hendricks - Carman - Durno
F,F

X - Hannan
Quincey - Shattenkirk
Wilson - X
X

Anderson
Budaj




================================================== ====

Now obviously these numbers are just estimates, but I think they'll be pretty close, and the ones that may be too high, are offset by the ones that may be too low, and vice versa.

This lineup is missing three defenseman, and I really don't see the cap rising all that much from where it is. I don't think Bettman wants players salaries getting much higher than what they are now, and it's risen considerably since the lockout. Assuming it goes up a little under $2 M to $58.5, that would give us $3 M to work with. The Avs always like to have at least $1 M in cushion (usually more) for injury callups and trades, so this would give us $1 M to add three defenseman, one of which would have to be our number one (and preferably another top four) so that we have a decent D no worse than it is now.

At the very least, they'll need $4 M for one D, $850 k for the last guy in the top six, and $700 k for the seventh guy. That's $5. 55 M. We could probably stand to lose one of Stewart and Galiardi, replacing them with someone at $1.5 M, and possibly replace McLeod with someone at $1.5 M, but that would only save us $3 M, and still short by about $2.5 M. This would also be assuming we had prospects that could develop well enough to replace those guys, and/or sign the replacements at those numbers. We would also be sacrificing a lot of depth.

Now maybe if we're lucky, a guy like Elliott could develop into that top guy, and still on his entry level deal around $1 M instead of the $4 M guy. This would be the only situation that could work, but look at all we had to lose, and to hope for, to get here. Not to mention, Shattenkirk's contract would be due for a big raise the following season, as would Elliott's if he makes the team next year, so we're back to cutting guys loose. Basically this is the situation that I have been trying to let people know about in a few years, where it will be a tight fit as it is without Kovalchuk. Bottom line is, there's no way we improve the D if we add Kovalchuk, and I and probably others here, would prefer to keep some of our forwards, and get a better D, than add Kovalchuk.


Last edited by Foppa2118: 12-25-2009 at 02:44 PM.
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Old
12-25-2009, 07:08 AM
  #61
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IMO If Kovalchuk really wants his $11 million, I'd say he should go get his $11 million somewhere else. It would take king's ransoms to get Kovalchuk.

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Old
12-25-2009, 09:57 AM
  #62
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Crap....I honestly don't see a trade for Ilya going down too well if it happens. I just hope it doesn't involve Wojo or Stazz. I'd be willing to deal Hedgie Liles and a 1st.....
You guys do know that Kovalchuk will be a UFA after this season right? It would make absolutely no sense to trade for him. No matter what the standings say this team is a re-building one. Maybe we could sign him in the off-season.

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12-25-2009, 01:05 PM
  #63
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Personally I think we need to step back and see how Wolski does the whole season, before we look at his trade value. Fact is, if Wolski is a ppg player really, Kovy's point production tops out at fifteen points more. That's really not all that much greater. And throwing a potential thirty goal scorer in there is something I wouldn't do.

Kovy isn't worth the depth that some of the users on here are throwing around. Everyone seems to think that he's worth a boatload of everything, and fact is he's not.

I say we play the waiting game before we throw in guys that aren't even topped out. Just not good.
My feelings too. I don't think we are going to see all of Jones, Stewart, Galiardi, and Wolski play to their potential but if two do and two become serviceable players we have a pretty well rounded roster. Throw Stoa into the mix and you have another potential chip. If we are going to throw big money at a single player in the near future lets make it our next St. Patty. If there is one position in hockey that can make or break a team it is goaltending. Problem is that you don't see deals like Louongo come along very often.

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12-25-2009, 01:07 PM
  #64
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Originally Posted by chet1926 View Post
I never said it would only cost us Jones and Wolski. It probably cost something like:

Wolski
Jones
Hensick
descent prospect (Barrie, Cohen etc.)
1st

thats a pretty descent return for a player without a contract, even if we were guaranteed a contract that would still be a good fetch for ATL.
My apologies. I misread your post then. Still, I don't like the Kovi idea. He is definitely an exciting and dynamic player but I don't think he is the piece we need and definitely don't think he will be worth the assets given in return.

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12-25-2009, 02:39 PM
  #65
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I would trade the whole team to get Ilya....

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12-25-2009, 06:14 PM
  #66
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I would trade the whole team to get Ilya....
So...top line as Kovy-Hensick-Wilsie?

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12-25-2009, 07:04 PM
  #67
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So...top line as Kovy-Hensick-Wilsie?
Don't ya know? Kovy is better than Stazz, Wolski, Stewie, Jesus, AND Chuck Norris put together!

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12-25-2009, 08:00 PM
  #68
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Don't ya know? Kovy is better than Stazz, Wolski, Stewie, Jesus, AND Chuck Norris put together!
But he can't be as good as Theodore

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12-25-2009, 09:14 PM
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But he can't be as good as Theodore
Personally I think we should just try and trade for Kovy, and then see if Vancouver is STUPID enough to accept a trade involving him and whatever other players we have left to get Hodgson.

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12-25-2009, 09:28 PM
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Originally Posted by Adama0905 View Post
Personally I think we should just try and trade for Kovy, and then see if Vancouver is STUPID enough to accept a trade involving him and whatever other players we have left to get Hodgson.
Thats the strategy i'd use for nhl10 too

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12-25-2009, 10:59 PM
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I sit here in Atlanta and watch Kovy 5-10 times a year and I don't want him!!! He is a selfish player who doesn't know how to play a team game or win when it counts. He has value, but I would only pay about $5.5 per and there is no way the bidding stays that low. Let this guy walk continue to build from within and let's make a cup run in 2-3 years not now, when we are too young anyway. Any deal done that doesn't involve a sign and trade would be a mistake IMO. Just my $.02...

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12-25-2009, 11:18 PM
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If we could snag him on the cheap some how? Yeah I'd love to have a top wing talent, but we'd have to give up way too much in terms of young guys and prospects.

The team needs to keep building around this great core of young players, and older guys like Duke, Wolski, and Stazz, not blow all our progress on a star that isn't guaranteed to sign.

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12-26-2009, 12:11 AM
  #73
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Originally Posted by Foppa2118 View Post
Let me see if I can break this down for you here. Let's assume a few things here. Let's assume the deal doesn't go down unless Kovy already agrees to a contract with the Avs. Lets assume for the sake of argument his deal is a long one that brings down the cap a bit to $7 M. This is fairly generous given what appears to be his demands. Lets also assume Hannan is resigned, or someone else is signed in his place for the same money listed below. If we take out Liles, Wolski, and Jones, here's a rough estimate of what our roster and cap hit will be in three years, given there's almost no way Kovalchuk signs for less than three, and likely wants five or more.

Kovalchuk - $7 M
Stastny - $6.6 M
Duchene - $6.6 M (Will likely use Stastny's contract as comparison and rightfully so)
Anderson - $5 M (Could be higher depending on his play next year, and/or in the playoffs.)
Quincey - $4.2 M (Probably get a similar contract to Liles as an RFA next summer)
O'Reilly - $3.75 M (Will use Jordan Staal's $4 M deal as comparison)
Stewart - $3.5 M (Will either get a one or two year deal next summer, so he has a chance at a bigger deal after that.)
Galiardi - $3.5 M
Hejduk - $3 M - (Or someone similar that will cost at least as much)
Hannan - $3 M (Or someone similar. This number could be higher.)
McLeod - $2.5 M
Wilson - $2 M (Will probably have an even better season next year with a bigger role, and sign a decent deal after that.)
Shattenkirk - $1 M (Will likely be in the final year of his first contract and due for a big raise.)
Budaj - $850 k (Or someone similar. Budaj is the perfect backup though IMO.)
Yip - $850 k (Will sign a one or two year deal next summer, for the same reasons as Stewart. This number could be higher.)
Carman - $750 k (Or whoever else makes the 4th line)
Hendricks - $650 k (Or someone similar)
Durno - $600 k (Or someone similar)
Last two depth forwards - $1.2 M ($600k each)

Total = $56,550,000

Kovalchuk - Stastny - Stewart
Galiardi - Duchene - Hejduk
McLeod - O'Reilly - Yip
Hendricks - Carman - Durno
F,F

X - Hannan
Quincey - Shattenkirk
Wilson - X
X

Anderson
Budaj




================================================== ====

Now obviously these numbers are just estimates, but I think they'll be pretty close, and the ones that may be too high, are offset by the ones that may be too low, and vice versa.

This lineup is missing three defenseman, and I really don't see the cap rising all that much from where it is. I don't think Bettman wants players salaries getting much higher than what they are now, and it's risen considerably since the lockout. Assuming it goes up a little under $2 M to $58.5, that would give us $3 M to work with. The Avs always like to have at least $1 M in cushion (usually more) for injury callups and trades, so this would give us $1 M to add three defenseman, one of which would have to be our number one (and preferably another top four) so that we have a decent D no worse than it is now.

At the very least, they'll need $4 M for one D, $850 k for the last guy in the top six, and $700 k for the seventh guy. That's $5. 55 M. We could probably stand to lose one of Stewart and Galiardi, replacing them with someone at $1.5 M, and possibly replace McLeod with someone at $1.5 M, but that would only save us $3 M, and still short by about $2.5 M. This would also be assuming we had prospects that could develop well enough to replace those guys, and/or sign the replacements at those numbers. We would also be sacrificing a lot of depth.

Now maybe if we're lucky, a guy like Elliott could develop into that top guy, and still on his entry level deal around $1 M instead of the $4 M guy. This would be the only situation that could work, but look at all we had to lose, and to hope for, to get here. Not to mention, Shattenkirk's contract would be due for a big raise the following season, as would Elliott's if he makes the team next year, so we're back to cutting guys loose. Basically this is the situation that I have been trying to let people know about in a few years, where it will be a tight fit as it is without Kovalchuk. Bottom line is, there's no way we improve the D if we add Kovalchuk, and I and probably others here, would prefer to keep some of our forwards, and get a better D, than add Kovalchuk.
Those numbers are pretty inflated.

Galiardi 3.5M? McLeod 2.5? Duchene 6.6? Anderson 5 million?

If Anderson wants 5 million he can go.Thats a crazy amount for him. He's good, but he has his off nights as well. Duchene is unlikely to get 6.6 million right away after his entry level deal, unless he really breaks out the last 2 years. McLeod shouldn't make 2.5 million. His offensive numbers have regressed this year from last year. Galiardi is a nice player, but he's still a 30-40 point player at this point. Yes he's good defensively but 3.5 million is alot.

I wouldn't trade for Kovy either, but if he's still a free agent July 1, and we could get him for 8 million or under, I'd go for it.

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12-26-2009, 12:51 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PeterTheGreat View Post
Those numbers are pretty inflated.

Galiardi 3.5M? McLeod 2.5? Duchene 6.6? Anderson 5 million?

If Anderson wants 5 million he can go.Thats a crazy amount for him. He's good, but he has his off nights as well. Duchene is unlikely to get 6.6 million right away after his entry level deal, unless he really breaks out the last 2 years. McLeod shouldn't make 2.5 million. His offensive numbers have regressed this year from last year. Galiardi is a nice player, but he's still a 30-40 point player at this point. Yes he's good defensively but 3.5 million is alot.

I wouldn't trade for Kovy either, but if he's still a free agent July 1, and we could get him for 8 million or under, I'd go for it.
As I mentioned, the ones that are too high are offset by the ones that could be too low. Hannan or his replacement could cost more than $3 M. Wilson could have a great rest of the year, and next, and command more than $2 M. Kovalchuk may not, and likely will not come as cheap as a $7 M cap hit.

As for Galiardi being a 30-40 point player right now, we're not talking about right now. We're talking about in three years. He may not make that much, but again it's offset by the guys that I undervalued.

As for McLeod, I don't see this little hicup offensively as a tell tale sign of what he will do moving forward. I think he's still that 15-20 goal guy, that plays a fiesty physical game, fights, is a leader, and plays ok defensively. He's a McCarty/Holmstorm type. He'll be a UFA in 2012, and will command more than the $1.033 he makes now. As I mentioned in my post, we could sign a cheaper replacement if need be, but it still leaves things awfully tight, and a guy like Yip or Stoa has to develop well enough to be a good cheap replacement.

In regards to Anderson, he's clearly the MVP of this team, if not the whole league. If we make the playoffs this year, and he plays well, comes back next year and does the same thing, he'll get around $5 M. Don't kid yourself. This team would be stupid not to pay it too, after what they've been through since Roy left.

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12-26-2009, 01:01 AM
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One other thing to note, and that I haven't seen brought up (sorry if I missed it) is that Kovalchuk only has four NHL playoff games under his belt, and two points. Do we really feel that comfortable giving up part of our future, and tying up so much cap space long term in a guy unproven in the playoffs? I haven't seen him play enough to assess his compete level, and how he reacts when teams play him physically.

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