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The Goalie Effect V3.0

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Old
12-26-2009, 06:15 PM
  #26
PlayerToBe
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Originally Posted by Pure View Post
Thats a pretty bold statement, how many playoff teams has Gustavsson won against?
??

In the games Gus has started, the Leafs have played at a pace that would put them in a playoff position.

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Old
12-26-2009, 06:17 PM
  #27
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Originally Posted by PlayerToBe View Post
??

In the games Gus has started, the Leafs have played at a pace that would put them in a playoff position.
But thats assuming he faces the same level of teams over an entire season, which he does not (its a completely invalid assumption and breaks your argument entirely). He HAS to win against the good to great teams eventually or the leafs would never get to the playoffs, I'm just using the 16 playoff teams.

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12-26-2009, 06:21 PM
  #28
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Originally Posted by Pure View Post
But thats assuming he faces the same level of teams over an entire season, which he does not (its a completely invalid assumption and breaks your argument entirely). He HAS to win against the good to great teams eventually or the leafs would never get to the playoffs, I'm just using the 16 playoff teams.
He's beaten a wide range of teams. From the Bruins and the Wings to the Canes.

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12-26-2009, 06:22 PM
  #29
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He's beaten a wide range of teams. From the Bruins and the Wings to the Canes.
So how many of those teams are in the playoffs?

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Old
12-26-2009, 06:24 PM
  #30
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The goalie effect, the Monster has been below average the last 2 games, and he gets the nod tonight.

First goal was just terrible.

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Old
12-26-2009, 06:24 PM
  #31
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Originally Posted by Pure View Post
So how many of those teams are in the playoffs?
What difference does it make exactly?

A win against washington isn't worth more than a win against florida.

There are a lot more average-mediocre teams than there are great teams. And if you beat all those average-mediocre teams, you're going to be in the playoffs.

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12-26-2009, 06:33 PM
  #32
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Originally Posted by PlayerToBe View Post
What difference does it make exactly?

A win against washington isn't worth more than a win against florida.

There are a lot more average-mediocre teams than there are great teams.
Because your argument is terribly flawed. You can't extrapolate stats like that. Like the guy before me said, short term stats mean very little. Gustavsson will not go an entire season without facing the playoff teams. He will not go an entire season and only play against the mediocre. If you wanna argue using stats only, then Gustavsson's record vs. playoff teams is terrible. Playoff teams make up 50% of the league. How likely do you think your argument that Gustavsson means playoffs stand then?

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12-26-2009, 06:41 PM
  #33
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Originally Posted by Pure View Post
Because your argument is terribly flawed. You can't extrapolate stats like that. Like the guy before me said, short term stats mean very little. Gustavsson will not go an entire season without facing the playoff teams. He will not go an entire season and only play against the mediocre. If you wanna argue using stats only, then Gustavsson's record vs. playoff teams is terrible. Playoff teams make up 50% of the league. How likely do you think your argument that Gustavsson means playoffs is then?


Gus has played elite teams. Gus has played average teams. Gus has played poor teams. He has not played a disportionate amount of games against a certain type of team. And his record after all this, as a starter, is 7-5-6, which is a playoff type pace.

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Old
12-26-2009, 06:45 PM
  #34
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Originally Posted by PlayerToBe View Post
The difference is dramatic.
6-4-4 and 5-5-0. Doesn't sound too dramatic.

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Originally Posted by PlayerToBe View Post
Stats + Observations >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> No Stats + Observations
Sure, stats + observations are better than no stats + observations. But that's not what's happening here.

You are simply shouting stats, not making any observations about the game. If you're make projections which are drastically changed by one game then you aren't even looking at the stats. You're creating fantasies. Because I'm not telling you stats at every turn doesn't mean I'm not acknowledging them. The stats are there for everyone to see on a number of websites.

But sports isn't physics. Stats do not directly correlate how players have been playing. They're there to tell about very few and specific points of the game. How many points players have. How many hits. Blocked shots. They're however not showing are things like how many rebounds has a defenseman cleared. How many one on one battles has he won. How did he do in board battles. Was the goalie screened when he let in a goal. And other things which can make the same difference as an assist or a giveaway. And stats don't put any difference to which team was a player playing good against. The team that's last in the league might just be a little easier to play against than the team that has a 20 game winning streak.

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Originally Posted by PlayerToBe View Post
After signing Gus, Burke talked about just how great Gus' SV% was. I didn't say it. Burke said it.
Since you're such a stats person maybe you would like to offer me a link to back up that info? If you're correct, then maybe I've overrated his ability as a GM, or he has been simply speaking in layman's terms.

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As for Kadri, you can can have all the offensive skills in the world, but if doesn't translate into numbers, it doesn't matter
Finishing is a crucial part of any players offensive skills. If you don't get the puck in the net, by shooting or making a good pass then you simply do not have 'all the offensive skills in the world'. That should be self-explanatory. People seem to be always saying how Stempniak has good offensive skills. I only see a guy who never gets the puck in the back of the net even though he gets a lot of chances. Not scoring on a great chance is as bad as letting in a soft goal in my opinion.

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Old
12-26-2009, 06:45 PM
  #35
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Originally Posted by PlayerToBe View Post
Gus has played elite teams. Gus has played average teams. Gus has played poor teams. He has not played a disportionate amount of games against a certain type of team. And his record after all this, as a starter, is 7-5-6, which is a playoff type pace.
Not true. If you are using starts only, Gustavsson has faced 10 non-playoff teams and 7 playoff teams. 3 games doesn't mean much, of course since you want to use this extrapolation bs, 3 games is a TON. Again, your argument fails.

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12-26-2009, 06:49 PM
  #36
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Originally Posted by Pure View Post
Not true. If you are using starts only, Gustavsson has faced 10 non-playoff teams and 7 playoff teams. 3 games doesn't mean much, of course since you want to use this extrapolation bs, 3 games is a TON. Again, your argument fails.
You do realize that playoff teams CHANGE on a daily basis right? And that in a weeks time, those numbers you posted could be different.

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12-26-2009, 06:51 PM
  #37
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You do realize that playoff teams CHANGE on a daily basis right? And that in a weeks time, those numbers you posted could be different.
Hey you wanted to go all "objective." Being in the playoff spot and out of it is objective. Calling one team elite and another team non-elite/mediocre is subjective and biased. See how easy it is to use stats to "prove" your point?

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Old
12-26-2009, 06:57 PM
  #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pure View Post
Hey you wanted to go all "objective." Being in the playoff spot and out of it is objective. Calling one team elite and another team non-elite/mediocre is subjective and biased. See how easy it is to use stats to "prove" your point?
Statistically ~94 points is a playoff spot, so calling a team "Playoff caliber" has a real technical definition behind it, it's not just a random title.

Also, there's a statistic that says Crosby scores more than Chris Neil, would I be able to use that to prove Crosby's a better scorer than Neil, or do I have to use some sort of telepathic voodoo?

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Old
12-26-2009, 06:58 PM
  #39
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Originally Posted by mlugia View Post
Statistically ~94 points is a playoff spot, so calling a team "Playoff caliber" has a real technical definition behind it, it's not just a random title.

Also, there's a statistic that says Crosby scores more than Chris Neil, would I be able to use that to prove Crosby's a better scorer than Neil, or do I have to use some sort of telepathic voodoo?
Exactly. I'm just trying to prove the point that short term stats mean nothing.

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Old
12-26-2009, 07:00 PM
  #40
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Originally Posted by jaateloauto View Post
6-4-4 and 5-5-0. Doesn't sound too dramatic..
Excluding October:

Record:
Gus: 6-4-4 (94 pt pace)
Toskala: 5-5-0 (82 pt pace)


As a starter, Record:
Gus: 6-3-4 (101 pt pace)
Toskala: 5-6-0 (75 pt pace)



Dramatic difference.




Quote:
Originally Posted by jaateloauto View Post
Sure, stats + observations are better than no stats + observations. But that's not what's happening here.

You are simply shouting stats, not making any observations about the game. If you're make projections which are drastically changed by one game then you aren't even looking at the stats. You're creating fantasies. Because I'm not telling you stats at every turn doesn't mean I'm not acknowledging them. The stats are there for everyone to see on a number of websites.

But sports isn't physics. Stats do not directly correlate how players have been playing. They're there to tell about very few and specific points of the game. How many points players have. How many hits. Blocked shots. They're however not showing are things like how many rebounds has a defenseman cleared. How many one on one battles has he won. How did he do in board battles. Was the goalie screened when he let in a goal. And other things which can make the same difference as an assist or a giveaway. And stats don't put any difference to which team was a player playing good against. The team that's last in the league might just be a little easier to play against than the team that has a 20 game winning streak...

My observations of Toskala sucking are backed up by stats.

Your observations of Toskala not sucking are not backed up by stats.


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Originally Posted by jaateloauto View Post
Since you're such a stats person maybe you would like to offer me a link to back up that info? If you're correct, then maybe I've overrated his ability as a GM, or he has been simply speaking in layman's terms.
Burke:

Quote:
"You look at his playoff statistics, they're mind-boggling," Burke said. "It's almost like trying to read fine print without reading glasses. You look at them and you're like, that can't be right. They're staggering."
http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=436371

He specifically mentioned SV% in a couple other interviews.

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Old
12-26-2009, 07:02 PM
  #41
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Quote:
Excluding October:

Record:
Gus: 6-4-4 (94 pt pace)
Toskala: 5-5-0 (82 pt pace)

As a starter, Record:
Gus: 6-3-4 (101 pt pace)
Toskala: 5-6-0 (75 pt pace)


Dramatic difference.
Does that mean that if Gustavsson loses 2 games in a row, your argument does a 180?

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Old
12-26-2009, 07:03 PM
  #42
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Originally Posted by Pure View Post
Hey you wanted to go all "objective." Being in the playoff spot and out of it is objective. Calling one team elite and another team non-elite/mediocre is subjective and biased. See how easy it is to use stats to "prove" your point?
I'm not suggest that this means the Leafs are guaranteed to make the playoffs. It's not a projection. It's only an indiciation of the teams performance in the games he's actually played thus far.

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Old
12-26-2009, 07:07 PM
  #43
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Originally Posted by Pure View Post
Does that mean that if Gustavsson loses 2 games in a row, your argument does a 180?
Those stats exclude October, so they're a lot further away from reality (the entire season). I only did this to appease another poster who believes October is the reason for Toskala's bad numbers.

So no, 2 loses in a row wouldn't change anything. Gus would still have the better overall w/l record, GAA and SV%.

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Old
12-26-2009, 07:08 PM
  #44
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I'm not suggest that this means the Leafs are guaranteed to make the playoffs. It's not a projection. It's only an indiciation of the teams performance in the games he's actually played thus far.
Thats fair. Teams definitely play different under a different goalie. Goaltending is without a doubt (and you don't need stats to prove this) an important aspect in team success. We've all seen elite goalies stealing games. I'm just saying stats can't be the basis of an argument, it should be supporting evidence.

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Old
12-26-2009, 07:30 PM
  #45
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Originally Posted by PlayerToBe View Post
Record:
Gus: 6-4-4
Toskala: 5-5-0

Dramatic difference.
I don't see it. Even with the whole season your cloud land could turn upside down in four games. Right now for example, Gustavsson seems to be falling into .500 and Toskala is going to be two wins away from him (and 3 games!) or after October, at the same line.

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Originally Posted by PlayerToBe View Post
My observations of Toskala sucking are backed up by stats.

Your observations of Toskala not sucking are not backed up by stats.
You don't seem to be listening. First, I never said Toskala has been playing good. Secondly, as I just said, you haven't made any observations about Toskala 'sucking'. You have simply stated stats and then created fantasies (projections) around it. I suggest you try reading my post again.

You led me to believe he said something like 'his stats were really good that's why we signed him', not 'his stats in the playoffs were amazing'. Simply acknowledging good stats doesn't make him a bad GM.

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Old
12-26-2009, 07:41 PM
  #46
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Originally Posted by jaateloauto View Post
I don't see it. Even with the whole season your cloud land could turn upside down in four games. Right now for example, Gustavsson seems to be falling into .500 and Toskala is going to be two wins away from him (and 3 games!) or after October, at the same line.


You don't seem to be listening. First, I never said Toskala has been playing good. Secondly, as I just said, you haven't made any observations about Toskala 'sucking'. You have simply stated stats and then created fantasies (projections) around it. I suggest you try reading my post again.

You led me to believe he said something like 'his stats were really good that's why we signed him', not 'his stats in the playoffs were amazing'. Simply acknowledging good stats doesn't make him a bad GM.
He has no idea what he's talking about (playertobe) so don't bother.

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Old
12-26-2009, 08:59 PM
  #47
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Originally Posted by jaateloauto View Post
I don't see it. Even with the whole season your cloud land could turn upside down in four games. Right now for example, Gustavsson seems to be falling into .500 and Toskala is going to be two wins away from him (and 3 games!) or after October, at the same line..
Of course you don't see it, because you pick and choose what you want to see.

The team wins at a much higher pace and they allow a lot less goals when Gus plays.

That's just the facts.


Quote:
Originally Posted by jaateloauto View Post
You don't seem to be listening. First, I never said Toskala has been playing good. Secondly, as I just said, you haven't made any observations about Toskala 'sucking'. You have simply stated stats and then created fantasies (projections) around it. I suggest you try reading my post again.

You led me to believe he said something like 'his stats were really good that's why we signed him', not 'his stats in the playoffs were amazing'. Simply acknowledging good stats doesn't make him a bad GM.
He wouldn't acknowledge 'the stats' if he didn't feel they were important. He acknowledged them because they are important.

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Old
12-26-2009, 09:49 PM
  #48
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With the Leafs it seems if the other goalie out plays ours we lose. When we win we have the better goalie in net.
Elliott (Ottawa)
Hiller (Ducks) Who was terrible in game
Ward (Carolina) Who are terrible
Varlamov
Nittymaki
Vokoum
Pavelic (who got pulled)
Neauinth--Washintons 3rd stringer
Osgood
Rask
Roloson are the goalies we beat. Both Roloson and Rask has also beat us a couple of times. So when we come up against and elite goalie (Miller etc ) we lose. Conbination of opposing goalies out playing ours and no finnish fron our scorers. Its almost like baseball and starting pictures. Tonight Halak vs Gus---We lose----

Looking ahead we play Pens-lose----Oilers (winnable) ,Flames --lose---Panthers(winnable)--Flyers (winnable) Sabres--Lose-- Why i put winnable is you still don't what you are going to get from Toskala and Gus.

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Old
12-26-2009, 09:52 PM
  #49
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Gustavsson is far from a finished product, but if he's to cement his position and be our number one he has to not let in BS goals like the second one against the Isles and 2 of the three goals against tonight.

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Old
12-27-2009, 02:12 AM
  #50
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It is impossible to argue support for a goalie who has played 20 total NHL games. He isn't a rookie Ed Belfour, and it will take a lot more than I see from him to be convinced he is a real-deal NHL starter.

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