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Projecting Toronto's 1st Round Pick as the season goes on

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12-31-2009, 10:01 AM
  #1
PBergeron37
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Projecting Toronto's 1st Round Pick as the season goes on

The purpose of this post is to project which pick Toronto’s first rounder might amount to, and then to identify which players might be available based on a survey of draft rankings from various reputable publications (i.e.: ISS, CSB, RedLine Report, McKeen’s). This is a very preliminary projection, but I think it will be interesting for the Board to identify a group of players who might be available when the B's pick and follow these guys over the rest of their respective seasons in Junior.

It is still early, as we are only 41 games into Toronto’s season, but with every game it is becoming more apparent what kind of team they are and I think we can start to project, within 8 to 10 points or so, where they might finish at the close of the season.

Currently, the B’s would be selecting 3rd overall. But, as we all know, Toronto’s current record is misleading because of their atrocious 1-7-5 start. In the 28 games since then, Toronto has amassed a 13-11-4 record. I think this is a much clearer indication of what kind of season we can expect from Toronto going forward. I have watched a lot of their games this season and they are a decent team. Not great, but not as bad as their record indicates. If we project their 13-11-4 record out over 41 games, you are looking at a 19-16-6 record, or 44 points for the second half of the season.

If we say that 44 points is Toronto’s median point total for the second half of the season, I think it is safe to say that the odds are that they won’t finish with less than 40 points and they won’t finish with more than 48 points in the second half. Therefore, Toronto’s range is roughly 40 to 48 points in the second half of the season (more points than this would mean they are a top 10 team in the second half, which they won't be; and less points than this means they will be a bottom 5 team in the second half, which they probably won't be). If we add 40 to 48 points to their current point total, 37 points, then we can project Toronto finishing with 77 to 85 points.

If we then survey which draft pick 77 to 85 points would amount to over the past four years, we find the following:

-2009: pick in the 5 to 10 range
-2008: pick in the 4 to 9 range
-2007: pick in the 8 to 9 range
-2006: pick in the 7 to 10 range

If we take the average of those picks, we are looking at a pick in the 6 to 9 range. Most likely, providing Toronto doesn't go on a huge run in the second half, this is the range in which we will be selecting in the upcoming draft. What does that mean?

Kiss goodbye Taylor Hall, Tyler Seguin, and Cam Fowler. Kirill Kabanov? Hard to say. Out until February with a broken ankle. A top-4 talent, but he will essentially have missed the entire season, so he becomes hard to project. Because of his talent and willingness to play in Montcon this year/and North America in the future, I do not think he will slip out of the top 5 for us to land him.

Outside of those top 4, that means we are looking at the following group of players: at the top end there is Brandon Gormley, Mikael Granlund, and Brett Connolly. I think we’d be lucky to grab one of these three.

The next group of players probably includes, at forward: Vladimir Tarasenko (high end talent, but may slide because of an unwillingness to come to North America), John McFarland (may slide because he has been awful this year) and Alexander Burmistrov (a fast riser); and on defense: Erik Gudbranson, Derrick Forbort, and Mark Pysyk.

This is probably a disappointing projection for most of you based on Toronto’s atrocious start, but it still looks we will get a solid player, even though we won’t get a Hall, Seguin or Fowler. I think we should turn our attention from those top three guys to the next set of players: Granland, Gormley, and Connolly, while also taking a look at the other 3 young defenders (Gudbranson, Forbort, and Pysyk) – we all know that our system could use some solid top-4 ability defenders.

Again, this is a preliminary projection for how Toronto will finish. There is still a lot of season to be played. However, I do think this is a safe projection. What do you all think? If you disagree, please say why you think Toronto will finish differently. If you have any information about the prospects that I have identified as potential Bruin targets, please post as well.

Happy New Year everyone. See some of you at the Winter Classic on Friday.

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12-31-2009, 10:12 AM
  #2
Tim Vezina Thomas
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PBergeron37 View Post
The purpose of this post is to project which pick Toronto’s first rounder might amount to, and then to identify which players might be available based on a survey of draft rankings from various reputable publications (i.e.: ISS, CSB, RedLine Report, McKeen’s). This is a very preliminary projection, but I think it will be interesting for the Board to identify a group of players who might be available when the B's pick and follow these guys over the rest of their respective seasons in Junior.

It is still early, as we are only 41 games into Toronto’s season, but with every game it is becoming more apparent what kind of team they are and I think we can start to project, within 8 to 10 points or so, where they might finish at the close of the season.

Currently, the B’s would be selecting 3rd overall. But, as we all know, Toronto’s current record is misleading because of their atrocious 1-7-5 start. In the 28 games since then, Toronto has amassed a 13-11-4 record. I think this is a much clearer indication of what kind of season we can expect from Toronto going forward. I have watched a lot of their games this season and they are a decent team. Not great, but not as bad as their record indicates. If we project their 13-11-4 record out over 41 games, you are looking at a 19-16-6 record, or 44 points for the second half of the season.

If we say that 44 points is Toronto’s median point total for the second half of the season, I think it is safe to say that the odds are that they won’t finish with less than 40 points and they won’t finish with more than 48 points in the second half. Therefore, Toronto’s range is roughly 40 to 48 points in the second half of the season (more points than this would mean they are a top 10 team in the second half, which they won't be; and less points than this means they will be a bottom 5 team in the second half, which they probably won't be). If we add 40 to 48 points to their current point total, 37 points, then we can project Toronto finishing with 77 to 85 points.

If we then survey which draft pick 77 to 85 points would amount to over the past four years, we find the following:

-2009: pick in the 5 to 10 range
-2008: pick in the 4 to 9 range
-2007: pick in the 8 to 9 range
-2006: pick in the 7 to 10 range

If we take the average of those picks, we are looking at a pick in the 6 to 9 range. Most likely, providing Toronto doesn't go on a huge run in the second half, this is the range in which we will be selecting in the upcoming draft. What does that mean?

Kiss goodbye Taylor Hall, Tyler Seguin, and Cam Fowler. Kirill Kabanov? Hard to say. Out until February with a broken ankle. A top-4 talent, but he will essentially have missed the entire season, so he becomes hard to project. Because of his talent and willingness to play in Montcon this year/and North America in the future, I do not think he will slip out of the top 5 for us to land him.

Outside of those top 4, that means we are looking at the following group of players: at the top end there is Brandon Gormley, Mikael Granlund, and Brett Connolly. I think we’d be lucky to grab one of these three.

The next group of players probably includes, at forward: Vladimir Tarasenko (high end talent, but may slide because of an unwillingness to come to North America), John McFarland (may slide because he has been awful this year) and Alexander Burmistrov (a fast riser); and on defense: Erik Gudbranson, Derrick Forbort, and Mark Pysyk.

This is probably a disappointing projection for most of you based on Toronto’s atrocious start, but it still looks we will get a solid player, even though we won’t get a Hall, Seguin or Fowler. I think we should turn our attention from those top three guys to the next set of players: Granland, Gormley, and Connolly, while also taking a look at the other 3 young defenders (Gudbranson, Forbort, and Pysyk) – we all know that our system could use some solid top-4 ability defenders.

Again, this is a preliminary projection for how Toronto will finish. There is still a lot of season to be played. However, I do think this is a safe projection. What do you all think? If you disagree, please say why you think Toronto will finish differently. If you have any information about the prospects that I have identified as potential Bruin targets, please post as well.

Happy New Year everyone. See some of you at the Winter Classic on Friday.
I think it will be in more of the 5-6 range, depending on whether the leafs trade their guys at the deadline (which they should do), or keep them and try to get out of the cellar (which theyll probably do).

BUT, I think Id be ok with Gudbranson as a consolation prize ive heard good things.

On a side note, I personally think that if we finish somewhere out of the top five, we should try to trade INTO the top five. Top 2 would be a huge price to pay and Im not completely sold that Folwer is THAT much better of a prospect than Gormley/not sure Id wanna trade everything for a chance at Seguin or Hall. Personally, I think Kabanov is the person I want. We have an above avg D man core with Chara Wideman Stuart Boychuk and we can easily fill the other two D men up in the offseason.

Kabanov would look sexy on the wing next to Savard would he not? Makes sense to me.

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12-31-2009, 10:21 AM
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Nice thread, I like it...

In terms of picking from 6-9, I agree with the thought of Brett Connolly. He is a great power forward/sniper, and would really fit in well with the team/system.

I have to scout Gormley once the juniors end, so I haven't developed much of an opinion on him. In my limited viewing of him, he seems like a 3 zone defenseman, skates great, quarterbacks the PP, and looks almost like Fowler-Lite.

Gudbrandson is big, developing and can have as a big of an impact as any Fowler/Gormley if things go well. Either of those three (Fowler, Gormley, Gudbrandson) would propel to the top of the Bruins defensive prospect ranks.

I spoke with Pysyk a couple weeks ago, and, while he is clearly a good player, I do not think he would be the right pick. He is an undersized, puck mover, but, if it came down to it, I'd rather draft potential first line forward potential such as Connolly, Kabanov, Granlund.

McFarland's stock is falling ,big time. I don't think many teams will consider him in the top 10.

I think right now, after the big 3, I'd go Gormley, Connolly, Gudbrandson, Kabanov in that order.

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12-31-2009, 10:23 AM
  #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PBergeron37 View Post
The purpose of this post is to project which pick Toronto’s first rounder might amount to, and then to identify which players might be available based on a survey of draft rankings from various reputable publications (i.e.: ISS, CSB, RedLine Report, McKeen’s). This is a very preliminary projection, but I think it will be interesting for the Board to identify a group of players who might be available when the B's pick and follow these guys over the rest of their respective seasons in Junior.

It is still early, as we are only 41 games into Toronto’s season, but with every game it is becoming more apparent what kind of team they are and I think we can start to project, within 8 to 10 points or so, where they might finish at the close of the season.

Currently, the B’s would be selecting 3rd overall. But, as we all know, Toronto’s current record is misleading because of their atrocious 1-7-5 start. In the 28 games since then, Toronto has amassed a 13-11-4 record. I think this is a much clearer indication of what kind of season we can expect from Toronto going forward. I have watched a lot of their games this season and they are a decent team. Not great, but not as bad as their record indicates. If we project their 13-11-4 record out over 41 games, you are looking at a 19-16-6 record, or 44 points for the second half of the season.

If we say that 44 points is Toronto’s median point total for the second half of the season, I think it is safe to say that the odds are that they won’t finish with less than 40 points and they won’t finish with more than 48 points in the second half. Therefore, Toronto’s range is roughly 40 to 48 points in the second half of the season (more points than this would mean they are a top 10 team in the second half, which they won't be; and less points than this means they will be a bottom 5 team in the second half, which they probably won't be). If we add 40 to 48 points to their current point total, 37 points, then we can project Toronto finishing with 77 to 85 points.

If we then survey which draft pick 77 to 85 points would amount to over the past four years, we find the following:

-2009: pick in the 5 to 10 range
-2008: pick in the 4 to 9 range
-2007: pick in the 8 to 9 range
-2006: pick in the 7 to 10 range

If we take the average of those picks, we are looking at a pick in the 6 to 9 range. Most likely, providing Toronto doesn't go on a huge run in the second half, this is the range in which we will be selecting in the upcoming draft. What does that mean?

Kiss goodbye Taylor Hall, Tyler Seguin, and Cam Fowler. Kirill Kabanov? Hard to say. Out until February with a broken ankle. A top-4 talent, but he will essentially have missed the entire season, so he becomes hard to project. Because of his talent and willingness to play in Montcon this year/and North America in the future, I do not think he will slip out of the top 5 for us to land him.

Outside of those top 4, that means we are looking at the following group of players: at the top end there is Brandon Gormley, Mikael Granlund, and Brett Connolly. I think we’d be lucky to grab one of these three.

The next group of players probably includes, at forward: Vladimir Tarasenko (high end talent, but may slide because of an unwillingness to come to North America), John McFarland (may slide because he has been awful this year) and Alexander Burmistrov (a fast riser); and on defense: Erik Gudbranson, Derrick Forbort, and Mark Pysyk.

This is probably a disappointing projection for most of you based on Toronto’s atrocious start, but it still looks we will get a solid player, even though we won’t get a Hall, Seguin or Fowler. I think we should turn our attention from those top three guys to the next set of players: Granland, Gormley, and Connolly, while also taking a look at the other 3 young defenders (Gudbranson, Forbort, and Pysyk) – we all know that our system could use some solid top-4 ability defenders.

Again, this is a preliminary projection for how Toronto will finish. There is still a lot of season to be played. However, I do think this is a safe projection. What do you all think? If you disagree, please say why you think Toronto will finish differently. If you have any information about the prospects that I have identified as potential Bruin targets, please post as well.

Happy New Year everyone. See some of you at the Winter Classic on Friday.
im not trying to bash your very well thought out post but why are you just throwing out their atrocious start and saying their hot month is closer to what they are? i dont think they are as bad as their first month but i also dont think they are as good as the hot streak they recently had. its also worth noting that they have to climb over teams in order to get out of the top three. for how great of a run they had the fact that they passed exactly 1 team (edmonton by 1 point and with edmonton having a game in hand) is telling. do they strike you as the type of team who will excel when the games become bigger as teams jockey for playoff positions? a bad defense bad goaltending team? do they strike you as the type of team that wont get lazy or a little disinterested if they arent within a few points of the playoffs late in the season? not to mention does burke try to trade his assets to regain picks or does his ego get in the way and he just tries to push to make the 1st rounder he gave up less valuable. if they trade kaberle how much worse will that team be? their makeup makes me think there is a better chance if they dont get red hot and make a playoff push that they will fade more and more near the end. i think a 3-6 pick is the range i project for them.

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12-31-2009, 10:32 AM
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draft

say toronto gets the 8th pick.

would u trade it and bos for the 1st or 2nd pick?

i say yes.

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12-31-2009, 10:32 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ALinsky View Post
Nice thread, I like it...

In terms of picking from 6-9, I agree with the thought of Brett Connolly. He is a great power forward/sniper, and would really fit in well with the team/system.

I have to scout Gormley once the juniors end, so I haven't developed much of an opinion on him. In my limited viewing of him, he seems like a 3 zone defenseman, skates great, quarterbacks the PP, and looks almost like Fowler-Lite.

Gudbrandson is big, developing and can have as a big of an impact as any Fowler/Gormley if things go well. Either of those three (Fowler, Gormley, Gudbrandson) would propel to the top of the Bruins defensive prospect ranks.

I spoke with Pysyk a couple weeks ago, and, while he is clearly a good player, I do not think he would be the right pick. He is an undersized, puck mover, but, if it came down to it, I'd rather draft potential first line forward potential such as Connolly, Kabanov, Granlund.

McFarland's stock is falling ,big time. I don't think many teams will consider him in the top 10.

I think right now, after the big 3, I'd go Gormley, Connolly, Gudbrandson, Kabanov in that order.
But, ALinsky, in your opinion, lets say that 1st Toronto is 7th, do you think that a package with 1st Toronto + 2 seconds (Toronto and Tampa) would be enough to turn that pick into a top3?

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12-31-2009, 10:33 AM
  #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ALinsky View Post
Nice thread, I like it...

In terms of picking from 6-9, I agree with the thought of Brett Connolly. He is a great power forward/sniper, and would really fit in well with the team/system.

I have to scout Gormley once the juniors end, so I haven't developed much of an opinion on him. In my limited viewing of him, he seems like a 3 zone defenseman, skates great, quarterbacks the PP, and looks almost like Fowler-Lite.

Gudbrandson is big, developing and can have as a big of an impact as any Fowler/Gormley if things go well. Either of those three (Fowler, Gormley, Gudbrandson) would propel to the top of the Bruins defensive prospect ranks.

I spoke with Pysyk a couple weeks ago, and, while he is clearly a good player, I do not think he would be the right pick. He is an undersized, puck mover, but, if it came down to it, I'd rather draft potential first line forward potential such as Connolly, Kabanov, Granlund.

McFarland's stock is falling ,big time. I don't think many teams will consider him in the top 10.

I think right now, after the big 3, I'd go Gormley, Connolly, Gudbrandson, Kabanov in that order.
Gormley has all the tools.One thing in his game however I have yet to see is that nastyness he will need to keep others honest.,Don't think for one sec in NHL he will not be tested.Other then that I say he is a stud.As for others u mention,I still say Bruins had better hope for a top 3 pick.Afterall,it was only the teams leader in potting goals they gave up.

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12-31-2009, 10:53 AM
  #8
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Originally Posted by FallsForItEveryYear View Post
im not trying to bash your very well thought out post but why are you just throwing out their atrocious start and saying their hot month is closer to what they are? i dont think they are as bad as their first month but i also dont think they are as good as the hot streak they recently had. its also worth noting that they have to climb over teams in order to get out of the top three. for how great of a run they had the fact that they passed exactly 1 team (edmonton by 1 point and with edmonton having a game in hand) is telling. do they strike you as the type of team who will excel when the games become bigger as teams jockey for playoff positions? a bad defense bad goaltending team? do they strike you as the type of team that wont get lazy or a little disinterested if they arent within a few points of the playoffs late in the season? not to mention does burke try to trade his assets to regain picks or does his ego get in the way and he just tries to push to make the 1st rounder he gave up less valuable. if they trade kaberle how much worse will that team be? their makeup makes me think there is a better chance if they dont get red hot and make a playoff push that they will fade more and more near the end. i think a 3-6 pick is the range i project for them.
All very, very good points. We have to remember that over in the Eastern Conference over the past 4 years it has taken 91 to 93 points to make the playoffs. That would mean that Toronto would have to amass at least 54 points, and maybe even 56 points in the 2nd half of the season to make the playoffs. Essentially, that means that they must be one of the top 2 or 3 teams in the entire Eastern Conference in the 2nd half of the season. Will this happen? Not a chance.

So, yes, it would be Burke's smartest move to trade guys like Kaberle and bring in draft picks to replace the one's he moved to Boston. And, we all know that Burke doesn't shy away from trades, so he will probably make a bunch of deals at the deadline. That being said, the trade deadline is March 3rd, with approximately a month left in the season (20 games), so even if they do trade away some of their talent, I don't think it will have that big of an impact in the grand scheme of things. Plus, they don't even have that much talent to trade away, outside of Kaberle. And, honestly, how many games does Kaberle alone win or lose your team out of 20. No more than a few out of 20, so we aren't really talking about a big swing in the standings based on trading away current roster "talent" at the deadline.

Will there be motivation issues? There could be, but you don't think that Ron Wilson and Burke will make it abundantly clear to this team that each game they lose, despite being out of the playoff race, makes their hated division rivals potentially better? You don't think Kessel knows this? Nonetheless, I agree that when you're out of the playoffs and you trade present talent for future picks, it can potentially demoralize a team.

Lastly, I don't think I'm necessarily "throwing out" their atrocious start (even though it is an outlier). If you look at the numbers, I project that they could finish with 77 points, which would mean their 2nd half (40 points) would still only be 3 points better (37 points) than their current record. So, basically, that start is factored into their lower point total estimate of 77 points, which would give us approximately the 6th pick.

Either way, all great points on your behalf. I hope they Tank and give us a top 3.

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12-31-2009, 11:02 AM
  #9
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Originally Posted by ALinsky View Post
Nice thread, I like it...

In terms of picking from 6-9, I agree with the thought of Brett Connolly. He is a great power forward/sniper, and would really fit in well with the team/system.

I have to scout Gormley once the juniors end, so I haven't developed much of an opinion on him. In my limited viewing of him, he seems like a 3 zone defenseman, skates great, quarterbacks the PP, and looks almost like Fowler-Lite.

Gudbrandson is big, developing and can have as a big of an impact as any Fowler/Gormley if things go well. Either of those three (Fowler, Gormley, Gudbrandson) would propel to the top of the Bruins defensive prospect ranks.

I spoke with Pysyk a couple weeks ago, and, while he is clearly a good player, I do not think he would be the right pick. He is an undersized, puck mover, but, if it came down to it, I'd rather draft potential first line forward potential such as Connolly, Kabanov, Granlund.

McFarland's stock is falling ,big time. I don't think many teams will consider him in the top 10.

I think right now, after the big 3, I'd go Gormley, Connolly, Gudbrandson, Kabanov in that order.

ALinsky: What type of season is Gudbrandson having? Living up to the preseason hype?

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12-31-2009, 11:09 AM
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I think anything in the top 10 is AOK, top 5 possible but I hate to say it, I think the Leafs will anger many of us by putting together a 22/23rd place finish this year.

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12-31-2009, 11:22 AM
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say toronto gets the 8th pick.

would u trade it and bos for the 1st or 2nd pick?

i say yes.
yes, but the team who owns the #1 pick would'nt accept that offer and with good reason.

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12-31-2009, 11:27 AM
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But, ALinsky, in your opinion, lets say that 1st Toronto is 7th, do you think that a package with 1st Toronto + 2 seconds (Toronto and Tampa) would be enough to turn that pick into a top3?
Thats really tough to say...The only way to hope for that is if one of the top three picks isn't sold on one of those players.

For example,

Carolina picks Hall
Edmonton picks Fowler
Say NYI are third and aren't high on someone like Seguin over some of the other guys and wouldn't mind moving down to the seventh, then I'm sure a package can be made.

Still think it'll be tough to get Hall or Fowler without naturally having a top 3...Best bet is to hope for Toronto to lose.

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12-31-2009, 11:29 AM
  #13
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Originally Posted by PBergeron37 View Post
ALinsky: What type of season is Gudbrandson having? Living up to the preseason hype?
Absolutely, plays with an edge more along the lines of a Pronger unlike Fowler who is more bred like Doughty, Erik Johnson etc...

He is still much more raw then Fowler or Gormley, however but is the only other besides the two that has #1 potential. I think it could end up being a touch decision for the Bruins between a guy like Gudbrandson and Connolly.

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12-31-2009, 11:32 AM
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I'm thinking 6 or 7 is probable. Slight chance at 3-5, slight chance at 8-9.

Haven't seen any of these kids other than Hall and Fowler. The best thing they can do is to not lock themselves into a position. A sniper or a high end dman would be nice, but pick the kid you think has the best chance to be a star. Don't go for a "low skills/high iq" guy. We can get one of those with our own pick. Go for a home run, even if it is a Russian with "coming to N.A." question marks.

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12-31-2009, 11:34 AM
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Absolutely, plays with an edge more along the lines of a Pronger unlike Fowler who is more bred like Doughty, Erik Johnson etc...

He is still much more raw then Fowler or Gormley, however but is the only other besides the two that has #1 potential. I think it could end up being a touch decision for the Bruins between a guy like Gudbrandson and Connolly.
I've watched Fowler a couple of times, which admittedly is not really enough to judge, but imo he's not a kid who looks ready to really contribute to an NHL team next year. He doesn't seem to be where Doughty or Bogosian or EJ or even Kulikov (who I really really wanted) were in their draft year.

Do you see him as a guy who can realistically make the jump next year on a good team (as opposed to the bottom teams who draft a guy and play him at 18 because they aren't going anywhere anyway)?

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12-31-2009, 11:37 AM
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Originally Posted by ALinsky View Post
Thats really tough to say...The only way to hope for that is if one of the top three picks isn't sold on one of those players.

For example,

Carolina picks Hall
Edmonton picks Fowler
Say NYI are third and aren't high on someone like Seguin over some of the other guys and wouldn't mind moving down to the seventh, then I'm sure a package can be made.

Still think it'll be tough to get Hall or Fowler without naturally having a top 3...Best bet is to hope for Toronto to lose.
It all depends on where people think the big drop off is. If this is a top 3 draft, that team picking at 3 is going to be mighty wary of dropping down.

Would Colorado accept Nazeem Kadri, Zach Budish, and Alex Chiasson for Matt Duchesne (last year's 3, 7 and 2 high 2nd rounders)? I seriously doubt it.

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12-31-2009, 11:59 AM
  #17
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I'd guess (conservatively) the Bruins will have #5 or #6 pick in the first round. Injuries could change things though.

Carolina probably wouldn't be in 30th for the first half of the season if Staal, Ward, and Corvo had stayed healthy. Carolina is a 2nd half team though and I could see them winning more than they lose in the 2nd half but 10 points is a huge gap.

Toronto has an interesting schedule though. They haven't played New Jersey or Philadelphia yet. Jersey is the best team so far in the East and Philly looks likely to improve quite a bit. Those are going to be 8 tough games.

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12-31-2009, 12:00 PM
  #18
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I've watched Fowler a couple of times, which admittedly is not really enough to judge, but imo he's not a kid who looks ready to really contribute to an NHL team next year. He doesn't seem to be where Doughty or Bogosian or EJ or even Kulikov (who I really really wanted) were in their draft year.

Do you see him as a guy who can realistically make the jump next year on a good team (as opposed to the bottom teams who draft a guy and play him at 18 because they aren't going anywhere anyway)?
Spoke to a scout recently who said that Fowler has a tendency to defer to the older, more experienced guys on his team, but absolutely has the skills to be in the NHL next season. Put him in a situation where he can be mentored by a top guy like Zdeno Chara for example, and watch him grow into the role.

Don't judge him on the WJC- he seems to be doing the par for course thing with John Carlson and David Warsofsky, who are older, more experienced.

Same individual said that when Ryan Ellis was out of the lineup for Windsor this year, Fowler took it up a notch and took control of those games.

He has it in him- just needs to learn to be more assertive and not so deferential.

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12-31-2009, 12:24 PM
  #19
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next two months

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Originally Posted by PBergeron37 View Post
The purpose of this post is to project which pick Toronto’s first rounder might amount to, and then to identify which players might be available based on a survey of draft rankings from various reputable publications (i.e.: ISS, CSB, RedLine Report, McKeen’s). This is a very preliminary projection, but I think it will be interesting for the Board to identify a group of players who might be available when the B's pick and follow these guys over the rest of their respective seasons in Junior.

It is still early, as we are only 41 games into Toronto’s season, but with every game it is becoming more apparent what kind of team they are and I think we can start to project, within 8 to 10 points or so, where they might finish at the close of the season.

Currently, the B’s would be selecting 3rd overall. But, as we all know, Toronto’s current record is misleading because of their atrocious 1-7-5 start. In the 28 games since then, Toronto has amassed a 13-11-4 record. I think this is a much clearer indication of what kind of season we can expect from Toronto going forward. I have watched a lot of their games this season and they are a decent team. Not great, but not as bad as their record indicates. If we project their 13-11-4 record out over 41 games, you are looking at a 19-16-6 record, or 44 points for the second half of the season.

If we say that 44 points is Toronto’s median point total for the second half of the season, I think it is safe to say that the odds are that they won’t finish with less than 40 points and they won’t finish with more than 48 points in the second half. Therefore, Toronto’s range is roughly 40 to 48 points in the second half of the season (more points than this would mean they are a top 10 team in the second half, which they won't be; and less points than this means they will be a bottom 5 team in the second half, which they probably won't be). If we add 40 to 48 points to their current point total, 37 points, then we can project Toronto finishing with 77 to 85 points.

If we then survey which draft pick 77 to 85 points would amount to over the past four years, we find the following:

-2009: pick in the 5 to 10 range
-2008: pick in the 4 to 9 range
-2007: pick in the 8 to 9 range
-2006: pick in the 7 to 10 range

If we take the average of those picks, we are looking at a pick in the 6 to 9 range. Most likely, providing Toronto doesn't go on a huge run in the second half, this is the range in which we will be selecting in the upcoming draft. What does that mean?

Kiss goodbye Taylor Hall, Tyler Seguin, and Cam Fowler. Kirill Kabanov? Hard to say. Out until February with a broken ankle. A top-4 talent, but he will essentially have missed the entire season, so he becomes hard to project. Because of his talent and willingness to play in Montcon this year/and North America in the future, I do not think he will slip out of the top 5 for us to land him.

Outside of those top 4, that means we are looking at the following group of players: at the top end there is Brandon Gormley, Mikael Granlund, and Brett Connolly. I think we’d be lucky to grab one of these three.

The next group of players probably includes, at forward: Vladimir Tarasenko (high end talent, but may slide because of an unwillingness to come to North America), John McFarland (may slide because he has been awful this year) and Alexander Burmistrov (a fast riser); and on defense: Erik Gudbranson, Derrick Forbort, and Mark Pysyk.

This is probably a disappointing projection for most of you based on Toronto’s atrocious start, but it still looks we will get a solid player, even though we won’t get a Hall, Seguin or Fowler. I think we should turn our attention from those top three guys to the next set of players: Granland, Gormley, and Connolly, while also taking a look at the other 3 young defenders (Gudbranson, Forbort, and Pysyk) – we all know that our system could use some solid top-4 ability defenders.

Again, this is a preliminary projection for how Toronto will finish. There is still a lot of season to be played. However, I do think this is a safe projection. What do you all think? If you disagree, please say why you think Toronto will finish differently. If you have any information about the prospects that I have identified as potential Bruin targets, please post as well.

Happy New Year everyone. See some of you at the Winter Classic on Friday.
great thread you put alot of work into it dont mind p bergeron37 looks like that time of the month. i was just looking at torontos jan and feb schedule and it looks pretty tough. to get under the toronto board skin i made a huge thread consisting of every game in that span and my predictions of each game. its under torontos schedule for jan and feb and predictions if your intrested. toronto is a very good team, but every team in the league because of the salary cap have a decent goalie dent defence and two very potent lines. of course a few teams have alot more, im just saying the majority of the teams do. they play wash pitt njersey 3 times plus the rest of the teams have a really good chance of winning or holding them to only a point. if my predictions are correct it will be a great lottery year for us.

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12-31-2009, 12:32 PM
  #20
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hope for a foward

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Thats really tough to say...The only way to hope for that is if one of the top three picks isn't sold on one of those players.

For example,

Carolina picks Hall
Edmonton picks Fowler
Say NYI are third and aren't high on someone like Seguin over some of the other guys and wouldn't mind moving down to the seventh, then I'm sure a package can be made.

Still think it'll be tough to get Hall or Fowler without naturally having a top 3...Best bet is to hope for Toronto to lose.
i know defense wins championships, but you can get a solid defender in later picks that progress in time. i hope with our top picks we go after a top of the line foward we can watch progress. we need another top finisher, there are plenty of solid defenseman you can pay for in ufa that wont get many points but that will play great defensivly so our young foward can do his job by putting the puck in the net. we have good enough defense where our fowards can do an extra move in the offensive zone and not worrying as much if our d can stop them. ex of d men guys like ference, m stuart

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12-31-2009, 12:38 PM
  #21
Cory Trevor
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Originally Posted by neldogger View Post
say toronto gets the 8th pick.

would u trade it and bos for the 1st or 2nd pick?

i say yes.
yes yes yes.

The chance of getting your choice of Kabanov, Hall, Seguin, or Fowler. Of course I would considering we have Tor's second rounder already.

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12-31-2009, 12:55 PM
  #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neldogger View Post
say toronto gets the 8th pick.

would u trade it and bos for the 1st or 2nd pick?

i say yes.
Yes I would but in reality that trade would be lucky to net the 5th pick.

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12-31-2009, 01:00 PM
  #23
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Yes I would but in reality that trade would be lucky to net the 5th pick.
I think he means after the fact.

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12-31-2009, 01:24 PM
  #24
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I say Toronto regresses in the second half and we'll be picking in the top 5

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12-31-2009, 01:36 PM
  #25
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Take a look at the standings. The sky is not falling that bad. We are halfway into the season and Toronto is still 3rd from the bottom. You can't just "look past" a 10-12 game segment of the season and say that is not who the team really is, it is very much a part of who they are. Not to mention, Kessel is slowing down. I really doubt they have a winning record in the second half of the season. This pick will be top 6 at the worst, and still could be top 2.

This leaves us with a good player no matter what happens. Here is how I see the rankings for now (split by tier).

1. Hall
2. Seguin

3. Fowler

4. Gormley
5. Granlund
6. Kabanov

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