Let's examine the bottom teams right now competing with Toronto:
30th Carolina (43gp, 31 pts)
29th Edmonton (44gp, 37 pts) 28th Toronto (45gp, 39 pts)
27th Florida (44gp, 41 pts)
26th St. Louis (43gp, 41 pts)
Is Toronto any better then those teams? The only thing that hurts our chances at a high pick is the fact that Toronto will be TRYING to move up in the standings all season because they have no pick to play for. The other teams can pack it in a lot sooner. We shall see, but a top 5 picks would be great regardless. The top 5 prospects can all fill team needs.
I'm not sure Burkie cleans house. They realistically only have 2 or 3 pieces worth anything. Kaberle, White and Hagman.
Well I think Burke would trade kaberle and Hagman for picks. We like to joke about Leaf Fans with Ian "Bobby Orr" White, but he is 25 years old and appears to be a solid defenseman to keep around. White leads the team with a +8 and seems to move the puck well and create offense.
1) Thread doesn't take into account the loto, and the chances of moving up in the draft (the max possible spots as per rules)
2) Thread does not take into account that Toronto for the most part has been exceptionally lucky with their lack of injuries. They are one patch of injuries away from a horrible nose dive.
Combine this with the games to play vs a very competitive Montreal team, Buffalo, Boston, and probably splitting remaining games vs Ottawa, and you could see Toronto's pick in the top 3-4.
1) Thread doesn't take into account the loto, and the chances of moving up in the draft (the max possible spots as per rules)
2) Thread does not take into account that Toronto for the most part has been exceptionally lucky with their lack of injuries. They are one patch of injuries away from a horrible nose dive.
Combine this with the games to play vs a very competitive Montreal team, Buffalo, Boston, and probably splitting remaining games vs Ottawa, and you could see Toronto's pick in the top 3-4.
i believe grabovski and komi and some other guys are injured right now. but i agree they have not hit the injury bug nearly as bad as some other teams this season
I'm not sure Burkie cleans house. They realistically only have 2 or 3 pieces worth anything. Kaberle, White and Hagman.
Burke has put his team in a position that he will have to add by free agency, he and his scouts may snag someone decent in the 3rd round and beyond, tons of evidence it happens, but realistically, he`ll have to go FA hunting, and next summers crop is pretty weak which bodes well for Bruin fans.
Yup. Leafs are fading right now, while everyone else is treading water. I expect the tide will turn again at some point, but this slump indicates the terrrible start was not just a fluke.
Carolina is in a big hole, and Edmonton and Columbus are both terrible. However, Toronto just needs to finish behind ONE of these teams for us to get a bonafide superstar.
I've been saying for a couple of weeks now the Canes catch the Leafs. Yes they are 8 points back with 2 games in hand, but also 4 games vs the Leafs. The injuries to Stall and Ward set them back.
Edmonton is done. Although Quinn blasted them yesterday, i think they can't overcome their injuries.
Columbus is odd. Once their ownership decides not to be cheap and fires Hitch, they could turn things around. Much more talent their than the Leafs.
When you look at the rest of the bottom 10, Atl. TB, NYI, Ducks, St. Louis, Florida, they have much more talent than the Leafs. That, and the Leafs are 6 games below .500. The rest of them are at .500 or 1 or 2 games below. ough ground to make up with the extra point. If the Leafs lose to the Pens tonight, i predict a top 3 pick.
I've been saying for a couple of weeks now the Canes catch the Leafs. Yes they are 8 points back with 2 games in hand, but also 4 games vs the Leafs. The injuries to Stall and Ward set them back.
Edmonton is done. Although Quinn blasted them yesterday, i think they can't overcome their injuries.
Columbus is odd. Once their ownership decides not to be cheap and fires Hitch, they could turn things around. Much more talent their than the Leafs.
When you look at the rest of the bottom 10, Atl. TB, NYI, Ducks, St. Louis, Florida, they have much more talent than the Leafs. That, and the Leafs are 6 games below .500. The rest of them are at .500 or 1 or 2 games below. ough ground to make up with the extra point. If the Leafs lose to the Pens tonight, i predict a top 3 pick.
One thing you need to start taking into account (or at least shortly) is teams that tank on purpose for draft position. I am sure "it doesn't happen" - maybe not mandated - but certainly GM's will be holding guys out for bruised toes with a little more ease.
Toronto does not have that luxury and will be pushed every game.
One thing you need to start taking into account (or at least shortly) is teams that tank on purpose for draft position. I am sure "it doesn't happen" - maybe not mandated - but certainly GM's will be holding guys out for bruised toes with a little more ease.
Toronto does not have that luxury and will be pushed every game.
I agree with you in principle but a HUGE strike against this theory was just last year when Tank nation resided in Toronto. They completely screw up by winning their last pile of games and move down to #7!
The pressure will be on big time this year - so I think it will be like being in the playoffs for this team without being in the playoffs! That's like going to war with a bow and arrow against guys with machine guns! (Avatar anyone?)
The kettle is going to boil over in TO. I think a top 3 pick is in order.
Let's examine the bottom teams right now competing with Toronto:
30th Carolina (43gp, 31 pts)
29th Edmonton (44gp, 37 pts) 28th Toronto (45gp, 39 pts)
27th Florida (44gp, 41 pts)
26th St. Louis (43gp, 41 pts)
Is Toronto any better then those teams? The only thing that hurts our chances at a high pick is the fact that Toronto will be TRYING to move up in the standings all season because they have no pick to play for. The other teams can pack it in a lot sooner. We shall see, but a top 5 picks would be great regardless. The top 5 prospects can all fill team needs.
great post (not surprised) and why if I had to pick a spot I am going 5th behind teams that will move vets and play kids and hence be pretty bad. St Louis is the one team I think will battle their arses off and be ahead of the Leafs- the Canes once they get rid of Whitney and some other vets will be right there with the Oilers for the bottom two spots.
Florida is not bad and if they ever get Booth back (damn you Richards) are much, much better than the Leafs on paper any ways.
I can live with the 5th but top three would be outsanding.
We shouldn't be all that worried about other teams tanking, Toronto's schedule works in our favor from Feb. on. They play the vast majority of those games against teams in the hunt for a playoff spot, including Boston, New Jersey, and Ottawa 3 times. Also they only play the Western Conf. 3 times.
We shouldn't be all that worried about other teams tanking, Toronto's schedule works in our favor from Feb. on. They play the vast majority of those games against teams in the hunt for a playoff spot, including Boston, New Jersey, and Ottawa 3 times. Also they only play the Western Conf. 3 times.
It does help that Florida, Tampa, Atlanta, and the Canes are all in the same division and play each other so much
I'll make Carolina the sacrificial lamb and hope the others can get enough points off each other to be ahead of the Leafs
The game Ray Whitney had last night was something- he would look perfect on the right side with Lucic-Savard-Whitney
problem is what the heck would Carolina want? I wish they could move Hamill and a third or something but they I'm sure are looking at something like Sobotka (over Cam's dead body) or a decent pick? Tampa's second or Toronto's second? and maybe that is not enough
Whitney to me is the guy but I don't want to touch those picks
I just dont fall for this tanking stuff. With a lottery weighted system, there is no guarantee of picking where you end up in the standings.
In 2007, the Chicago Black Hawks won the lottery and got first pick, yet were 5th last in the standings in 2006-07. From 5th last, they had an 8.1% chance of winning the lottery and did. So i say again, tanking and finishing last, 2nd last etc. does not guarantee a top pick. There are other examples. So unless you are 6th last and tank to get into the bottom 5 for a chance at number one, tanking just does NOT make sense. I wish people would see that and realize that teams don't tank. Besides, these are professionals that play to win. Coaches jobs depend on it. Managers jobs depend on it. Owners depend on it to draw fans. (unless you are Toronto) http://www.monstersandcritics.com/sp...NHL_draft_pick
The good part for the Bruins is if they dont win the lottery with the Leafs pick, the most they can drop under the system is one spot. I still say it will be top 3 pick !!
I just dont fall for this tanking stuff. With a lottery weighted system, there is no guarantee of picking where you end up in the standings.
In 2007, the Chicago Black Hawks won the lottery and got first pick, yet were 5th last in the standings in 2006-07. From 5th last, they had an 8.1% chance of winning the lottery and did. So i say again, tanking and finishing last, 2nd last etc. does not guarantee a top pick. There are other examples. So unless you are 6th last and tank to get into the bottom 5 for a chance at number one, tanking just does NOT make sense. I wish people would see that and realize that teams don't tank. Besides, these are professionals that play to win. Coaches jobs depend on it. Managers jobs depend on it. Owners depend on it to draw fans. (unless you are Toronto) http://www.monstersandcritics.com/sp...NHL_draft_pick
The good part for the Bruins is if they dont win the lottery with the Leafs pick, the most they can drop under the system is one spot. I still say it will be top 3 pick !!
Good Point. I also remember a stat a while back where over a 10 year span the last team in the league won the lottery only twice. Once was the Bruins (Thornton) and the other Tampa Bay (Lecavalier).
All very, very good points. We have to remember that over in the Eastern Conference over the past 4 years it has taken 91 to 93 points to make the playoffs. That would mean that Toronto would have to amass at least 54 points, and maybe even 56 points in the 2nd half of the season to make the playoffs. Essentially, that means that they must be one of the top 2 or 3 teams in the entire Eastern Conference in the 2nd half of the season. Will this happen? Not a chance.
So, yes, it would be Burke's smartest move to trade guys like Kaberle and bring in draft picks to replace the one's he moved to Boston. And, we all know that Burke doesn't shy away from trades, so he will probably make a bunch of deals at the deadline. That being said, the trade deadline is March 3rd, with approximately a month left in the season (20 games), so even if they do trade away some of their talent, I don't think it will have that big of an impact in the grand scheme of things. Plus, they don't even have that much talent to trade away, outside of Kaberle. And, honestly, how many games does Kaberle alone win or lose your team out of 20. No more than a few out of 20, so we aren't really talking about a big swing in the standings based on trading away current roster "talent" at the deadline.
Will there be motivation issues? There could be, but you don't think that Ron Wilson and Burke will make it abundantly clear to this team that each game they lose, despite being out of the playoff race, makes their hated division rivals potentially better? You don't think Kessel knows this? Nonetheless, I agree that when you're out of the playoffs and you trade present talent for future picks, it can potentially demoralize a team.
Lastly, I don't think I'm necessarily "throwing out" their atrocious start (even though it is an outlier). If you look at the numbers, I project that they could finish with 77 points, which would mean their 2nd half (40 points) would still only be 3 points better (37 points) than their current record. So, basically, that start is factored into their lower point total estimate of 77 points, which would give us approximately the 6th pick.
Either way, all great points on your behalf. I hope they Tank and give us a top 3.
Leafs fan here, i come in peace. Some of you know me from the shut down (prospect, leafs tank thread). I'm a straight shooter and call it like i see it.
I'm sorry but i could not disagree more with your project final 41 game out look.
Two things of note during our "hot streak" was the solid play of Gustafson and Kessel.
Kessel missed training, we all know this, now that his adrenalin rush is gone and teams have had a chance to see how we use him, i do not expect him to produce at the rate he did during our streak. As the season wares on i expect it to drop due to the lack of a training camp and other coach's strategies.
Gustafson will also burn out IMO, forcing TO to use Tosk more or a burned out Gust.
What? you said a 25 year old tender getting burned out? YUP! His last two seasons consisted of 23gp and 20 gp over seas. We have already used him 25 times and may want to use him for what? another 30 starts at the least.
If Burke is the professional that i HOPE he is, where Boston ends up drafting better not be a concern for him.
IF come TD we are not sniffing around a PO birth BB has 11 UFAs to make a decision on. If he ends up trading the more valuable UFAs to regain some picks, there is NO doubt in my mind that they will drop even further in the standings. Add in the possible removal of Kabber from the line up and you could possibly see a epic collapse after the TD.
All my long winded post is trying to say is that IMO the Bs have a better chance of drafting 1-4 than anything else. Correction to that statement, TO finishing last to 4th last. Gary Bettman will NEVER allow the Bs to draft #1, he and his magic balls and all. He needs to save Carolina not Boston.
Leafs fan here, i come in peace. Some of you know me from the shut down (prospect, leafs tank thread). I'm a straight shooter and call it like i see it.
I'm sorry but i could not disagree more with your project final 41 game out look.
Two things of note during our "hot streak" was the solid play of Gustafson and Kessel.
Kessel missed training, we all know this, now that his adrenalin rush is gone and teams have had a chance to see how we use him, i do not expect him to produce at the rate he did during our streak. As the season wares on i expect it to drop due to the lack of a training camp and other coach's strategies.
Gustafson will also burn out IMO, forcing TO to use Tosk more or a burned out Gust.
What? you said a 25 year old tender getting burned out? YUP! His last two seasons consisted of 23gp and 20 gp over seas. We have already used him 25 times and may want to use him for what? another 30 starts at the least.
If Burke is the professional that i HOPE he is, where Boston ends up drafting better not be a concern for him.
IF come TD we are not sniffing around a PO birth BB has 11 UFAs to make a decision on. If he ends up trading the more valuable UFAs to regain some picks, there is NO doubt in my mind that they will drop even further in the standings. Add in the possible removal of Kabber from the line up and you could possibly see a epic collapse after the TD.
All my long winded post is trying to say is that IMO the Bs have a better chance of drafting 1-4 than anything else. Correction to that statement, TO finishing last to 4th last. Gary Bettman will NEVER allow the Bs to draft #1, he and his magic balls and all. He needs to save Carolina not Boston.
I was in total agreement with everything you said and actually had some respect for you until the bolded comment. The draft lottery is done by an independent frim and you really believe they will risk their reputation and respect for one stupid ball Gary Betman wants or may not want dropped? And even if your statement for had even the slightest ounce of truth to it, that makes for a stronger argument for me that "teams do not tank because there is no guarantee as to where you pick."
Good Point. I also remember a stat a while back where over a 10 year span the last team in the league won the lottery only twice. Once was the Bruins (Thornton) and the other Tampa Bay (Lecavalier).
Any lottery pick would make me giddy.
That maybe true on how many times the last place team won the lotto BUT the last place team does NOT have to win the lotto to secure the top pick.
What needs to happen is that the 2-3-4-5 th last place teams do NOT win the lotto.
Thats 4 teams out of 14 vying for the lotto. IIRC the last place team has a 56.8% chance of retaining it.
I was in total agreement with everything you said and actually had some respect for you until the bolded comment. The draft lottery is done by an independent frim and you really believe they will risk their reputation and respect for one stupid ball Gary Betman wants or may not want dropped? And even if your statement for had even the slightest ounce of truth to it, that makes for a stronger argument for me that "teams do not tank because there is no guarantee as to where you pick."
Take that bolded statement with a grain of salt would ya. I was being sarcastic.
Don't you recall all the talk about the Crosby lotto?
All my long winded post is trying to say is that IMO the Bs have a better chance of drafting 1-4 than anything else. Correction to that statement, TO finishing last to 4th last. Gary Bettman will NEVER allow the Bs to draft #1, he and his magic balls and all. He needs to save Carolina not Boston.
I was in total agreement with everything you said and actually had some respect for you until the bolded comment. The draft lottery is done by an independent frim and you really believe they will risk their reputation and respect for one stupid ball Gary Betman wants or may not want dropped? And even if your statement for had even the slightest ounce of truth to it, that makes for a stronger argument for me that "teams do not tank because there is no guarantee as to where you pick."
I don't believe a team has EVER "tanked" if you are talking about players and coach's trying to lose.
Thats not to say that GMs have not stripped down there flawed rosters for pics and prospects and i even dare say "had the hopes of a top picks" due to the disassembled roster.
IMO there is nothing wrong with a GM admitting that his roster is seriously flawed and deciding not to try and fix it with bubble gum and band aids.
I don't believe a team has EVER "tanked" if you are talking about players and coach's trying to lose.
Thats not to say that GMs have not stripped down there flawed rosters for pics and prospects and i even dare say "had the hopes of a top picks" due to the disassembled roster.
IMO there is nothing wrong with a GM admitting that his roster is seriously flawed and deciding not to try and fix it with bubble gum and band aids.
I agree.
Coaches coach to win. Ron Wilson got pissed last year when the media asked him about tanking and rightfully so in my opinion.
I don't think the players really care about who the team drafts and they aren't going to play differently because of it.
And about Bettman not letting the Bruins pick first. I almost believe it too..Carolina needs to establish itself.
) or a decent pick? Tampa's second or Toronto's second? and maybe that is not enough
