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Projecting Toronto's 1st Round Pick as the season goes on

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01-10-2010, 07:13 PM
  #76
neelynugs
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if the leafs play .500 hockey the rest of the way, they'll have 75 points at season's end.

to get 93 points, they'd have to go 27-9-0.

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01-10-2010, 07:16 PM
  #77
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Originally Posted by neelynugs View Post
if the leafs play .500 hockey the rest of the way, they'll have 75 points at season's end.

to get 93 points, they'd have to go 27-9-0.
They might want to try talent over truculence next time

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01-10-2010, 07:27 PM
  #78
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I just dont fall for this tanking stuff.
I agree 100% with this. Management can tank, but players won't. They're fighting for that next contract, and in poor teams sitiuations, a roster spot. I think GM's can put teams in position to fail, but you wont see players intentionally screw up to draft players they may never even be around long enough to play with

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01-11-2010, 12:11 PM
  #79
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0.5%

As of Today Toronto has a 0.5% Chance to make the playoffs:

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern.html

All Non-Playoff Teams are entered in the Draft Lottery. (You can Move Up a Maximum of 4 Spots & Move Down a Maximum of 1 Spot. The Lottery only applies to the First Round)

Toronto also only has a 7% Chance of finishing 12th in the East.

I would have a very hard time trading any of the Toronto picks and if I did there is Nothing on the Toronto roster (AHL or NHL) that I would trade them for.

Also as per that site Carolina has a 0% chance to make the playoffs.
The Bruins currently have a 90.1% Chance to make the playoffs.

These 3 Point Games make it hard for Toronto to make up ground.

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01-11-2010, 12:17 PM
  #80
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Originally Posted by Neely2005 View Post
As of Today Toronto has a 0.5% Chance to make the playoffs:

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern.html

All Non-Playoff Teams are entered in the Draft Lottery. (You can Move Up a Maximum of 4 Spots & Move Down a Maximum of 1 Spot. The Lottery only applies to the First Round)

Toronto also only has a 7% Chance of finishing 12th in the East.

I would have a very hard time trading any of the Toronto picks and if I did there is Nothing on the Toronto roster (AHL or NHL) that I would trade them for.

Also as per that site Carolina has a 0% chance to make the playoffs.
The Bruins currently have a 90.1% Chance to make the playoffs.

These 3 Point Games make it hard for Toronto to make up ground.
This Link might be better as it shows All 30 Teams:

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

Lots of interesting stats/projections on that site.

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01-11-2010, 12:44 PM
  #81
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I've been saying for a couple of weeks now the Canes catch the Leafs. Yes they are 8 points back with 2 games in hand, but also 4 games vs the Leafs. The injuries to Stall and Ward set them back.

Edmonton is done. Although Quinn blasted them yesterday, i think they can't overcome their injuries.

Columbus is odd. Once their ownership decides not to be cheap and fires Hitch, they could turn things around. Much more talent their than the Leafs.

When you look at the rest of the bottom 10, Atl. TB, NYI, Ducks, St. Louis, Florida, they have much more talent than the Leafs. That, and the Leafs are 6 games below .500. The rest of them are at .500 or 1 or 2 games below. ough ground to make up with the extra point. If the Leafs lose to the Pens tonight, i predict a top 3 pick.
Carolina is only 6 Points Behind Toronto now & still has 2 Games In Hand Plus 4 Games still to play against Toronto.

This could get very interesting!

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01-11-2010, 01:03 PM
  #82
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Said the same in my latest B's picks update on B2010DW blog.

http://bruins2010draftwatch.blogspot...-2011-jan.html

B's sitting at 3, 17, 33, 36, 47 in the first two rounds if the season ended today.

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01-11-2010, 01:05 PM
  #83
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Originally Posted by Kirk- NEHJ View Post
Said the same in my latest B's picks update on B2010DW blog.

http://bruins2010draftwatch.blogspot...-2011-jan.html

B's sitting at 3, 17, 33, 36, 47 in the first two rounds if the season ended today.
Who would you be targeting at 3, if you had to make the pick?

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01-11-2010, 01:07 PM
  #84
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Originally Posted by neelynugs View Post
if the leafs play .500 hockey the rest of the way, they'll have 75 points at season's end.

to get 93 points, they'd have to go 27-9-0.
And that is almost impossible since they are going to most probably be sellers because of the many ufa's to be.I'm sure Burke is gonna try and trade Kaberle and Ponikarovski and try to get a 1st rounder back

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01-11-2010, 01:09 PM
  #85
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Who would you be targeting at 3, if you had to make the pick?
No-brainer for me: Assuming Taylor Hall goes with the top selection, it comes down to Cam Fowler or Tyler Seguin. If the Bruins get into the top-three, they are getting an elite/top-tier prospect in any one of Hall, Fowler or Seguin depending on who's there when they pick.

I also think they couldtry to package their 1st and at least one of the high 2nds plus a player or prospect maybe to move up in the 1st and potentially land two guys in the top-10. Maybe a top-end D and forward...but way too early to tell.

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01-11-2010, 01:18 PM
  #86
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Originally Posted by Kirk- NEHJ View Post
No-brainer for me: Assuming Taylor Hall goes with the top selection, it comes down to Cam Fowler or Tyler Seguin. If the Bruins get into the top-three, they are getting an elite/top-tier prospect in any one of Hall, Fowler or Seguin depending on who's there when they pick.

I also think they couldtry to package their 1st and at least one of the high 2nds plus a player or prospect maybe to move up in the 1st and potentially land two guys in the top-10. Maybe a top-end D and forward...but way too early to tell.
Kirk, you a little surprised how much Riley Sheahen has shot up the boards and how much Kabanov has fallen?

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01-11-2010, 01:26 PM
  #87
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Kirk, you a little surprised how much Riley Sheahen has shot up the boards and how much Kabanov has fallen?
Not really.

Sheahan is playing extremely well and getting a lot of ice time as a true freshman under Jeff Jackson. He's like Joe Colborne in that he's big, skilled and a good character guy, so his value is shooting up as a result- everyone loves those big, talented centermen. The big difference is- Sheahan is doing it at the NCAA D1 level in his draft year whereas Colborne was playing Tier 2, so that's where the delta is reflected in the rankings.

As far as Kabanov goes, serious wrist injury + being a Russian= drop in draft stock. I believe someone will end up stealing him as a result, but when you have a guy whose best attributes are his puck skills and he his wrist is hurt badly, that scares off a lot of people. He's going to have to come back strong this year in order to prevent a precipitous fall in June. Right now, tough to say how it's going to play out. A shame, because I've heard he's a terrific kid...much like Dmitri Kulikov in that he wants to play over here and is focused on making the NHL.

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01-11-2010, 01:29 PM
  #88
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I'll put it out there that I'm hoping for Fowler. Not based on what he showed me in the WJC, but more based on his position and our organization's needs.

So the question I have is assuming the Bruins do end up at #3, and either Carolina or Edmonton chooses Hall (seems a near certainty), what are the needs of those two teams? Do they go with Fowler over Seguin or vice versa?

At first glance both teams seem to need both forwards and defense. My bet though is that maybe Edmonton needs defense a bit more?

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01-11-2010, 01:39 PM
  #89
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Originally Posted by Kirk- NEHJ View Post
Not really.

Sheahan is playing extremely well and getting a lot of ice time as a true freshman under Jeff Jackson. He's like Joe Colborne in that he's big, skilled and a good character guy, so his value is shooting up as a result- everyone loves those big, talented centermen. The big difference is- Sheahan is doing it at the NCAA D1 level in his draft year whereas Colborne was playing Tier 2, so that's where the delta is reflected in the rankings.

As far as Kabanov goes, serious wrist injury + being a Russian= drop in draft stock. I believe someone will end up stealing him as a result, but when you have a guy whose best attributes are his puck skills and he his wrist is hurt badly, that scares off a lot of people. He's going to have to come back strong this year in order to prevent a precipitous fall in June. Right now, tough to say how it's going to play out. A shame, because I've heard he's a terrific kid...much like Dmitri Kulikov in that he wants to play over here and is focused on making the NHL.
good information. thanks. i think kabanov is someone to really keep an eye on. depending on where bostons own first rounder is and how far he drops due to the injury and being a russian he could be an interesting target for boston.

if we land a top three pick thanks to toronto and get for instance cam fowler, with all the second rounders we have it could be worth the risk for boston to take kabanov if we have a high teens pick and he endures one of those never ending falls.

in my opinion we would be in a great spot to take a risk on him. you could land a top 5 talent with a middle to late first round pick. knowing you have 3 picks bunched together in the second to try and land one another 2nd round gem. we've been very good lately at getting great value out of second rounders. if they are confident at least one of those 3 picks is another gem i think they take a chance on the fallen talent.

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01-11-2010, 01:42 PM
  #90
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Originally Posted by Kirk- NEHJ View Post
As far as Kabanov goes, serious wrist injury + being a Russian= drop in draft stock. I believe someone will end up stealing him as a result, but when you have a guy whose best attributes are his puck skills and he his wrist is hurt badly, that scares off a lot of people. He's going to have to come back strong this year in order to prevent a precipitous fall in June. Right now, tough to say how it's going to play out. A shame, because I've heard he's a terrific kid...much like Dmitri Kulikov in that he wants to play over here and is focused on making the NHL.
I would love to see him drop down to the 8-12 range and have the Bruins take a shot at this kid. He seems to love the game and has incredible skills. If the Bruins could say offer up their pick along with Toronto's 2nd (Maybe a 3rd or lower prospect if necessary) I would do it to get this skilled left winger.

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01-11-2010, 01:48 PM
  #91
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Originally Posted by Kirk- NEHJ View Post
Not really.

Sheahan is playing extremely well and getting a lot of ice time as a true freshman under Jeff Jackson. He's like Joe Colborne in that he's big, skilled and a good character guy, so his value is shooting up as a result- everyone loves those big, talented centermen. The big difference is- Sheahan is doing it at the NCAA D1 level in his draft year whereas Colborne was playing Tier 2, so that's where the delta is reflected in the rankings.

As far as Kabanov goes, serious wrist injury + being a Russian= drop in draft stock. I believe someone will end up stealing him as a result, but when you have a guy whose best attributes are his puck skills and he his wrist is hurt badly, that scares off a lot of people. He's going to have to come back strong this year in order to prevent a precipitous fall in June. Right now, tough to say how it's going to play out. A shame, because I've heard he's a terrific kid...much like Dmitri Kulikov in that he wants to play over here and is focused on making the NHL.
Kirk we saw Alex Cherepanov (RIP) drop considerably due to the Russian factor, how does Kabanov compare to him skill set and projection in NHL wise? (ie, if you had to guess who would be the better player or showed that they would be the better player)

And do you think that due to the KHL being a bigger threat and considering his injury status that Kabanov could drop further than Cherepanov?

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01-11-2010, 01:57 PM
  #92
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Originally Posted by song4thedeaf View Post
Kirk we saw Alex Cherepanov (RIP) drop considerably due to the Russian factor, how does Kabanov compare to him skill set and projection in NHL wise? (ie, if you had to guess who would be the better player or showed that they would be the better player)

And do you think that due to the KHL being a bigger threat and considering his injury status that Kabanov could drop further than Cherepanov?
Well, it's kind of an apples-to-oranges comparison because Cherepanov was playing in Russia when he was drafted, while Kabanov is over here. On the one hand, the risk a team takes in selecting Kabanov without the IIHF transfer agreement in place for Russian players is mitigated by that somewhat because there simply won't be as many confusing layers of red tape to have to cut through in order to communicate with Kabanov. He's here and scouts can simply walk up to him after a Moncton game and chat with him In English as opposed to if he were over in Russia playing where things are done differently and they have to go through translators and all of that. That lack of access and the ability to ascertain Cherepanov's intentions hurt him a bit in 2007...no doubt about it. More on him later.

Now, as far as skill set goes, the two are comparable talents, but I have heard that Kabanov works harder shift-to-shift and has that benefit of being here in North America already, so he's speaking English, is immersed in the culture and learning the game, which puts him ahead of the power curve over Russians who come over to play pro and have to make all of the hockey and cultural adjustments.

The biggest drawback to Kabanov now as opposed to Cherepanov then is the injury. Because it has the potential to be a chronic problem, teams will want some more fidelity on it before they spend a high pick on him. It would be a disaster if a team picks him 4th or 5th only to find out that he can no longer be the player he once was. So, the key will be as I said earlier, if and how well he comes back from it before the draft.

Now, with Cherepanov, he fell because of the concerns about signing him out of Russia, but also because of his questionable attitude and work ethic. Those were bad combinations for him, even though just about every team acknowledged that he had a hell of a skill set.

So- you're looking at a drop for different reasons. In Kabanov's case, it's because of the injury more than the signability, but he'll still deal with it. After all- Kulikov fell further last June, IMO, than his talent should have warranted.

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01-11-2010, 02:00 PM
  #93
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Does Tarasenko wanna come over or will he stay in Russia?

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01-11-2010, 02:01 PM
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Originally Posted by Kirk- NEHJ View Post
Well, it's kind of an apples-to-oranges comparison because Cherepanov was playing in Russia when he was drafted, while Kabanov is over here. On the one hand, the risk a team takes in selecting Kabanov without the IIHF transfer agreement in place for Russian players is mitigated by that somewhat because there simply won't be as many confusing layers of red tape to have to cut through in order to communicate with Kabanov. He's here and scouts can simply walk up to him after a Moncton game and chat with him In English as opposed to if he were over in Russia playing where things are done differently and they have to go through translators and all of that. That lack of access and the ability to ascertain Cherepanov's intentions hurt him a bit in 2007...no doubt about it. More on him later.

Now, as far as skill set goes, the two are comparable talents, but I have heard that Kabanov works harder shift-to-shift and has that benefit of being here in North America already, so he's speaking English, is immersed in the culture and learning the game, which puts him ahead of the power curve over Russians who come over to play pro and have to make all of the hockey and cultural adjustments.

The biggest drawback to Kabanov now as opposed to Cherepanov then is the injury. Because it has the potential to be a chronic problem, teams will want some more fidelity on it before they spend a high pick on him. It would be a disaster if a team picks him 4th or 5th only to find out that he can no longer be the player he once was. So, the key will be as I said earlier, if and how well he comes back from it before the draft.

Now, with Cherepanov, he fell because of the concerns about signing him out of Russia, but also because of his questionable attitude and work ethic. Those were bad combinations for him, even though just about every team acknowledged that he had a hell of a skill set.

So- you're looking at a drop for different reasons. In Kabanov's case, it's because of the injury more than the signability, but he'll still deal with it. After all- Kulikov fell further last June, IMO, than his talent should have warranted.
Awesome, thanks, always love reading your posts, very informative and educational.

Sounds like a good player doing the right things, I will admit when it comes to getting Russians who aren't already cemented in the NHL I am weary but it sounds he has his head in the right place, be nice if he did drop a few spots so we can get him.

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01-11-2010, 02:05 PM
  #95
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Does Tarasenko wanna come over or will he stay in Russia?
Who knows?

The Nikita Filatov situation doesn't help, though.

Because now, it isn't just about signing these guys anymore, but teams and coaches have to deal with the fallout and potential exodus of said Russian player who can simply break contract and go home if things aren't working out for him.

The Bruins experienced this with Sergei Zinovjev firsthand in 2003-04. It isn't an accident that they've drafted just one Russian since, and in Yuri Alexandrov's case, were getting ready to write him off until successfully getting him over to development camp in July because they were led to believe he wasn't interested in signing and coming over.

This is becoming a reality: Unless something changes, drafting Russian players high is risky business for any NHL team right now when you factor in the KHL and the kind of competition/alternative it provides the NHL. Because of this, teams are going to be leery of spending lottery picks on these players even though their talent squarely places them there.

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01-11-2010, 02:10 PM
  #96
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Who knows?

The Nikita Filatov situation doesn't help, though.

Because now, it isn't just about signing these guys anymore, but teams and coaches have to deal with the fallout and potential exodus of said Russian player who can simply break contract and go home if things aren't working out for him.

The Bruins experienced this with Sergei Zinovjev firsthand in 2003-04. It isn't an accident that they've drafted just one Russian since, and in Yuri Alexandrov's case, were getting ready to write him off until successfully getting him over to development camp in July because they were led to believe he wasn't interested in signing and coming over.

This is becoming a reality: Unless something changes, drafting Russian players high is risky business for any NHL team right now when you factor in the KHL and the kind of competition/alternative it provides the NHL. Because of this, teams are going to be leery of spending lottery picks on these players even though their talent squarely places them there.
Completely agree.I watched him play a couple games at the WJ and he looks really good out there,but I get the feeling he is one of those who isn't interested in coming over.

Do you think they would take a shot at him or no more Russians for us?With the Bruins pick if he is available at say around 20,do you think PC takes the risk?

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01-11-2010, 02:21 PM
  #97
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Again...don't know.

It isn't always about the talent. Tarasenko being there at 17-20-ish would certainly be tempting, but without knowing how his interviews go with the team or how they really feel, it's hard to speculate.

But, when people start yammering about teams passing up on certain players, it's usually only because they take the talent aspect into account. They, like most of us, don't know how these players come off in the interviews and the kind of vibe they give the team. That kind of thing is becoming more and more important these days, so on paper alone, Tarasenko at 20 would be a no-brainer, but you just don't know how the NHL team feels about him.

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01-11-2010, 02:21 PM
  #98
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my plan in regards to a guy like kabanov would be this:

have i already secured a "cant miss prospect"? (assuming we land hall seguin or fowler i check this off)

do i like the depth and skill i think i can get with the group of picks i have in the second round? (with this being a deep draft there is a pretty good chance this can get a check mark.)

Is kabanov's talent far and away better than any other player i can pick at this location? (if the answer is yes then i take that chance.)

i think of it like this and go from there. say i rate kabanov as a 90 out of 100 and the top player other than kabanov is an 80 out of a 100 well i take the chance on kabanov because hes a vastly superior talent. if its more like 90 to 86 well id say its not worth the risk for a marginally better talent.

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01-11-2010, 02:25 PM
  #99
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On the Kabanov risk, wasn't Filatov much the same when it came to desire to play in the NHL?

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01-11-2010, 02:32 PM
  #100
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At the time, Filatov made it clear to NHL teams who interviewed him that he wanted to play in the NHL, but he was playing in Russia at the time, so the teams were worried about the payoff it might take to get him signed and over and the other weird shenanigans that go on these days in the absence of a formal transfer agreement. But, they weren't concerned that he'd not make the effort to come over- he wanted to be here.

And, until this year, he backed that up with his actions. Only when he clashed with the Bluejackets/Ken Hitchcock over role and playing time has it become an issue.

So now, teams have to consider not only the challenge of actually signing Russian players and bringing them over to North America, but what happens if the player can't adjust or becomes unhappy with his situation and goes home. Because the KHL can pretty much poach whomever they want when they want, it becomes a legitimate issue for NHL clubs when they have high picks and have to decide to take the risk or not.

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