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Projecting Toronto's 1st Round Pick as the season goes on

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01-11-2010, 02:32 PM
  #101
ska8ter8808
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Originally Posted by FallsForItEveryYear View Post
my plan in regards to a guy like kabanov would be this:

have i already secured a "cant miss prospect"? (assuming we land hall seguin or fowler i check this off)

do i like the depth and skill i think i can get with the group of picks i have in the second round? (with this being a deep draft there is a pretty good chance this can get a check mark.)

Is kabanov's talent far and away better than any other player i can pick at this location? (if the answer is yes then i take that chance.)

i think of it like this and go from there. say i rate kabanov as a 90 out of 100 and the top player other than kabanov is an 80 out of a 100 well i take the chance on kabanov because hes a vastly superior talent. if its more like 90 to 86 well id say its not worth the risk for a marginally better talent.
This is exactly how I look at it. I think we as the Bruins have the easiest choice of picking him because of the top tier almost guarantee we could get in top 3, along with our three second round picks, makes him a good pick for us. You could look at a draft like a portfolio of different stocks. Fowler (fingers crossed) is a high reward low risk (great stock), we can use say two of our second rounders as a lower reward lower risk player such as a 3rd line player or 4-5 Dman this would be a diversified portfolio.

Now if you are Minnesota and only have two pick in the top two rounds and you pick Kabanov you're portfolio might be too risky to take on.

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01-11-2010, 02:34 PM
  #102
Kirk- NEHJ
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Originally Posted by Kaoz View Post
On the Kabanov risk, wasn't Filatov much the same when it came to desire to play in the NHL?
OK- I understand what you are saying.

And yes, it is essentially the same.

So, while I player can tell a team emphatically that he wants to play, any team thinking about it will consider the potential down the road for said player to get his fill of NHL hockey or become dissatisfied with the situation and leave.

Because there is no formal agreement protecting the NHL clubs' interests, they can easily get stuck holding the bag. Therefore- you see the clear trending downward of Russian players picked in the draft from year to year.

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01-11-2010, 02:47 PM
  #103
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Originally Posted by Kirk- NEHJ View Post
OK- I understand what you are saying.

And yes, it is essentially the same.

So, while I player can tell a team emphatically that he wants to play, any team thinking about it will consider the potential down the road for said player to get his fill of NHL hockey or become dissatisfied with the situation and leave.

Because there is no formal agreement protecting the NHL clubs' interests, they can easily get stuck holding the bag. Therefore- you see the clear trending downward of Russian players picked in the draft from year to year.
It's a very very scary situation, especially if you're talking a top 10 pick in a fairly deep draft where the potential for a 10-20 guy being as good or better then a guy like Kabanov exists.

I would completely understand Boston's hesitance to take a Russian kid even if they were the obvious bpa. At the same time, I wouldn't mind the risk at all if Kabanov dropped into that 10-20 range, they plucked Fowler with their top pick and then traded up to get the Russian.

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01-11-2010, 02:50 PM
  #104
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If Kabanov falls and the Bruins have a shot at with their own 1st rounder I think they should definitely take it.

Other teams with 1 first rounder can less afford to take the risk but the Bruins will already have picked someone hopefully in the top 5.

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01-11-2010, 03:48 PM
  #105
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Kirk, lets assume that we won't deal any pick, Toronto 1st returns Fowler, Kabanov drop in the range 10-15th and our 1st in the range 18-22th, so two questions, do you think that would be possible our 1st + 2nd (Toronto or Tampa) get Kabanov, and a package with the others 2 2nd + prospect could get another 1st in the range 18-22th?

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01-11-2010, 04:00 PM
  #106
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Originally Posted by Kirk- NEHJ View Post
Said the same in my latest B's picks update on B2010DW blog.

http://bruins2010draftwatch.blogspot...-2011-jan.html

B's sitting at 3, 17, 33, 36, 47 in the first two rounds if the season ended today.

Wouldn't that be a great outcome. This could be the most interesting Bruins draft in a while.

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01-11-2010, 04:13 PM
  #107
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Originally Posted by Lord Ahriman View Post
Kirk, lets assume that we won't deal any pick, Toronto 1st returns Fowler, Kabanov drop in the range 10-15th and our 1st in the range 18-22th, so two questions, do you think that would be possible our 1st + 2nd (Toronto or Tampa) get Kabanov, and a package with the others 2 2nd + prospect could get another 1st in the range 18-22th?
Value-wise, yes, it's possible. Look at what the Islanders did last June to get Calvin de Haan...certainly doable assuming Boston can find a dance partner. They have the desirable assets to pull it off if that's the direction they want to go.

Do I even want to speculate that the Bruins want to do that for Kabanov? No.

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01-11-2010, 04:31 PM
  #108
Lord Ahriman
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Originally Posted by Kirk- NEHJ View Post
Value-wise, yes, it's possible. Look at what the Islanders did last June to get Calvin de Haan...certainly doable assuming Boston can find a dance partner. They have the desirable assets to pull it off if that's the direction they want to go.

Do I even want to speculate that the Bruins want to do that for Kabanov? No.
I asked that, because if Chia go to the draft with all picks, and get 3 top 20, I really wouldn't be upset not go deep in the playoffs. Thanks for the answer.

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01-11-2010, 04:35 PM
  #109
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It's too early to start pegging players, but it will be an interesting draft. They tried to be players last year and failed. This year, they have the assets to do some moving if that's the objective.

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01-11-2010, 04:35 PM
  #110
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Kirk, assuming the standings stay the same & the top 3 are CAR, EDM, BOS: what are the chances of either Carolina or Edmonton picking Cam Fowler?

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01-11-2010, 04:41 PM
  #111
Lord Ahriman
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Originally Posted by Kirk- NEHJ View Post
It's too early to start pegging players, but it will be an interesting draft. They tried to be players last year and failed. This year, they have the assets to do some moving if that's the objective.

Kirk, let me put you against the wall: if you were Chia, and could go to the draft with our all picks, what would you do? (if the draft was today)

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01-11-2010, 04:41 PM
  #112
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Edmonton...very good. Look at what they're lacking right now...a marquee D. I talk a little about in on the 2010 Draft thread pt. 2 and even posted an Edmonton blog post that talked at length about his appeal.

Bottom line: They had a dominant D in Chris Pronger and have suffered since trading him away. If Boston wants Fowler, then they'd better hope they're picking before Edmonton, or that the Oilers finish 1st and take Taylor Hall and if Boston is sitting at 3, that No. 2 grabs Seguin.

Of course, this is all pure speculation on my part.

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01-11-2010, 04:51 PM
  #113
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Originally Posted by Lord Ahriman View Post
Kirk, let me put you against the wall: if you were Chia, and could go to the draft with our all picks, what would you do? (if the draft was today)
Thanks, but I'll hold off and post my strategy on my blog as we get closer to the draft.


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01-12-2010, 09:20 AM
  #114
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Am I the only one who thinks we need a Scoring Forward over a Defenceman? I understand that we're weak at D in the Orginization but our biggest problem right now seems to be scoring goals.

With all of these draft picks hopefully we can address both needs.

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01-12-2010, 09:34 AM
  #115
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Am I the only one who thinks we need a Scoring Forward over a Defenceman? I understand that we're weak at D in the Orginization but our biggest problem right now seems to be scoring goals.

With all of these draft picks hopefully we can address both needs.
Yes, you are the only one

Seriously, I think it all depends on who's there when the B's pick. If Hall and Seguin are gone, you take Fowler, and then possibly try to trade your own pick and some of the extras for a guy like El Nino, or another forward that they like.

The reverse could also be true. If Fowler is gone and they get Hall or Seguin, they could always package some picks to move up and grab Gormley or possily Gundbranson, (he would cost less) if they like him.

Either way, I'd like to see them add an impact player at forward and D in what's supposed to be a very good draft.

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01-12-2010, 09:51 AM
  #116
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I would like to think boston takes the best available with that first pick no matter what need they think is most important to fill. with another first rounder and 3 second rounders (assuming they have these picks still) they have plenty of opportunities to land an impact player at a position they believe is most important.

If we are number 3 and fowler is the guy on the board you take him and then use your quantity of picks to land whichever elite scorer your scouts have targeted.

If you have the number 1 pick and your scouts are telling you Hall is the next great sniper a la kovalchuk or heatley or someone of that quality you pick him and then look to land a strong defensman in the late first round or by packaging picks to move up.

when you have this many picks and this many chances to get multiple great prospects you do not draft on need over talent at the top of the draft.

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01-12-2010, 10:58 AM
  #117
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Didn't know where to put this, but the toronto - carolina game tonight can be considered a big one in the scheme of the draft pick. Carolina is only 6 out with 2 games in hand. With a carolina win that puts carolina at 4 points back with those 2 games still in hand.

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01-12-2010, 11:05 AM
  #118
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Originally Posted by LucicIsABeast View Post
Didn't know where to put this, but the toronto - carolina game tonight can be considered a big one in the scheme of the draft pick. Carolina is only 6 out with 2 games in hand. With a carolina win that puts carolina at 4 points back with those 2 games still in hand.
That game tonight is absolutely huge for our draft pick.

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01-12-2010, 11:15 AM
  #119
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That game tonight is absolutely huge for our draft pick.
And this was mentioned in the other thread as well. Toronto plays the flyers and capitals later this week. The flyers seem to be able to completely shut down torontos offense and washington is, well, washington. The oil are only down 2 points with 2 games in hand.

I mean viably the maple leafs could be in dead last place within a week or so. I wouldnt count on it but its very possible. I know leafs fans havent been happy with play as of late (though the same could be said the entire year). In all honesty though, I can't see the hurricanes in last place, they are around the same team as last year (some injuries).

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01-12-2010, 11:18 AM
  #120
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I'm of the opinion that if Boston is drafting in the top-3, they should be taking a forward. The Bruins have a nice window over the next couple seasons and it takes even the best defensemen a couple years to get going.

Obviously, Hall would be my number one choice but at #2 it's a tough call. Could Seguin be converted to a winger? Could Bergeron be moved to the wing?

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01-12-2010, 11:24 AM
  #121
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Originally Posted by LucicIsABeast View Post
And this was mentioned in the other thread as well. Toronto plays the flyers and capitals later this week. The flyers seem to be able to completely shut down torontos offense and washington is, well, washington. The oil are only down 2 points with 2 games in hand.

I mean viably the maple leafs could be in dead last place within a week or so. I wouldnt count on it but its very possible. I know leafs fans havent been happy with play as of late (though the same could be said the entire year). In all honesty though, I can't see the hurricanes in last place, they are around the same team as last year (some injuries).
Toronto has 4 games left against New Jersey too.

With only 36 games left even if the Leafs play better than they have all season and average 1 point per game....they'll still only get 75 points.

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01-12-2010, 11:38 AM
  #122
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Toronto has 4 games left against New Jersey too.

With only 36 games left even if the Leafs play better than they have all season and average 1 point per game....they'll still only get 75 points.
And don't forget the fact that Burke will most probably have a fire sale at the deadline with all his ufa to be.Team will look like an AHL team after the deadline

Go Hurricanes!

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01-12-2010, 11:43 AM
  #123
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And don't forget the fact that Burke will most probably have a fire sale at the deadline with all his ufa to be.Team will look like an AHL team after the deadline

Go Hurricanes!
Fine but what players could he trade that would actually have a meaningful impact? The only quality players he has on that team,arguably, are Kessel, Kaberle, Ponikarovsky, maybe Komisarek and Gustavvson. Aside from Kaberle, he's not moving any of those guys. And kids like Stajan and Schenn aren't likely going anywhere.
Out of the guys he may move, like Kaberle, Hagman, White, etc., only Kaberle is likely to hurt them in any meaningful way.

On the other hand, Carolina is almost certain to deal Whitney, whose loss will really hurt them. They could also move Cole, Samsonov, and if they really were planning a rebuild, Staal's name might come up. So theoretically they could get much worse if they wanted to.

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01-12-2010, 11:46 AM
  #124
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Whatever happened to tank nation? I loved that thread it made my day, everyday.

Carolina is coming on strong and will pass them soon, all we need now is for Edmonton to pick it up because they have been looking terrible.

I think it will be a fight between the Leafs and the Oil for the last place team at the end of the year.

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01-12-2010, 11:47 AM
  #125
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Fine but what players could he trade that would actually have a meaningful impact? The only quality players he has on that team,arguably, are Kessel, Kaberle, Ponikarovsky, maybe Komisarek and Gustafson. Aside from Kaberle, he's not moving any of those guys. And kids like Stajan and Schenn aren't likely going anywhere.
Out of the guys he may move, like Kaberle, Hagman, White, etc., only Kaberle is likely to hurt them in any meaningful way.

On the other hand, Carolina is almost certain to deal Whitney, whose loss will really hurt them. They could also move Cole, Samsonov, and if they really were planning a rebuild, Staal's name might come up. So theoretically they could get much worse if they wanted to.
I see burke trying to move Kaberle,Ponikarovski and even Stajan if the right deal comes along.For sure he would love to get a 1st round pick back,so if he trades 3-4 players for picks and prospects,they won't be icing a very strong team after the deadline,that's if he trades some of those names

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