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Old
01-05-2010, 12:16 AM
  #101
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Originally Posted by Fiddie View Post
From 1994-2006
Team # drafted NHL % Rnk NHL >200 % Rnk Total GP GP/ drafted Rnk Total Pts Pts/ drafted Rnk
Edmonton 135 50 37.0% 20 13 9.6% 24 8568 63 17 3449 26 14

Nothing special, average at best, but when the Oilers and drafting is brought up it is always about how horrible they are. That is a misnomer.
When the crowd is chanting "Doan" and you take "Kelly" you aren't doing a good job.

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01-05-2010, 12:20 AM
  #102
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Originally Posted by Narnia View Post
The Lowe hatred on here is going overboard.
Yes there is plent of Lowe hatred, but its hardly over board. Actually its absolutely astounding that there are still people on here who would defend Kevin Lowe considering his abysmal, horrific job preformance. His blundering and bumbling is now somewhere on the GM incompetance meter between Doug MacLean and Mike Milbury.

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01-05-2010, 12:38 AM
  #103
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Originally Posted by OneSharpMarble View Post
When the crowd is chanting "Doan" and you take "Kelly" you aren't doing a good job.
That was Slats and not Lowe. Over on the Oilers website, somebody blamed Lowe for drafting Rita and everyone knows that it was Slats and not Lowe.

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01-05-2010, 12:43 AM
  #104
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Originally Posted by Narnia View Post
That was Slats and not Lowe. Over on the Oilers website, somebody blamed Lowe for drafting Rita and everyone knows that it was Slats and not Lowe.
Slats hasnt been here for over ten years. Yet this is his fault? That's good stuff.

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01-05-2010, 12:45 AM
  #105
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Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
Slats hasnt been here for over ten years. Yet this is his fault? That's good stuff.
Do the math. Kelly was drafted in 1995 and Rita was drafted in 1999. Lowe became GM in 2000. Yes those two draft picks were Slats' fault.

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01-05-2010, 12:54 AM
  #106
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Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
Slats hasnt been here for over ten years. Yet this is his fault? That's good stuff.

Sather drafted Rita, which is what she meant.


If there's one thing I've liked of Lowe, for the most part, it's been drafting (although, that's obviously less up to him, and more up to scouts). And spotting D talent (retaining on the other hand...)


All in all though, I actually agree with you (for once). Lowe is bad for this team.

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01-05-2010, 12:57 AM
  #107
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Originally Posted by jfhlbuffy View Post
Sather drafted Rita, which is what she meant.
As well as Kelly. My Pet Peeve is blaming Lowe for drafting players that Slats drafted like I said in regards to Kelly and Rita.

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01-05-2010, 01:00 AM
  #108
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Originally Posted by Narnia View Post
Do the math. Kelly was drafted in 1995 and Rita was drafted in 1999. Lowe became GM in 2000. Yes those two draft picks were Slats' fault.
Kevin Lowe has been in charge of the personnel for ten years now. Sather did a poor job in the last half of his time here but to be fair he was faced with the same constraints Kevin was until the salary cap. Kevin Lowe did a fine job until the cap came in. Then he traded for a bunch of expiring contracts and Pronger. That was exciting. The cup run was magical. But its been down hill every since. Pronger wasnt his fault. But Smyth was. The offer sheet was. Glencross, Hossa, Hejda, Horcoff, Moreau, Pisani, Staios.

The mistakes piled up. Now we have every team in last place in every league. No real prospects on the farm or very few, some good ones that arent signed yet, but nothing else. Our team needs an overhaul at every position. This team is a mess. And its not because of Sather, and its not because of Tambellini, and it certainly isnt because of EIG or Katz. Tell me Narnia, who does that leave?

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01-05-2010, 01:22 AM
  #109
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Actually Lowe was brilliant and ahead of the game the 1st year of the cap. Getting Pronger and then making cheap trades for the likes of Tarnstrom and Spacek was somee fine GMing.

Unfortuantely that is all he did well, after that it has been a pure nighmare. As for drafts, I don't go after gms for the drafts that much, it is the personell guys like Pendergast that should take most of good and the bad.

It looks like we have made some good picks the last few years but we have also made some bad ones as well in my opinion. (Taking Plante over cherapanov (rip) was dumb. Plante will be a bust. Also going for roleplayers like Lander and Abney way to early last year was suspect. Moving up to get Riley Nash looks questionable as well.

In any case make no mistake about it, our biggest problem right now and last year was having a cap maxed team with no easy way out due to terrible long term deals and this falls right on Lowes lap.

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01-05-2010, 01:42 AM
  #110
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Originally Posted by Mowzie View Post
So it's the fans fault again eh...

Among the league's highest ticket prices.

Among the league's oldest/ugliest/most uncomfortable arenas.

Among the league's worst and least exciting teams.


Someone should link KLOWE to the ticket exchange threads over the last few seasons, so he can see what this seasons demand is like in comparison. I can't even give tickets away this year. I'm sure it will eventually come out that the organization has been eating the extra tickets like Minnesota was, and that the sell-out streak was just a farce.
I posted my theory of blaming the fans over on OilersNation, and it seems that it could use posting here. So, without further adieu, a little history lesson from the American Civil War is in order for those who feel that the fans are the problem...

If Abraham Lincoln would have caved to the demands of the numerous Northern dissenters during the war, you would probably be looking at an entirely different map of the United States today (both geographically and demographically). Instead, Lincoln understood that conceding defeat to the South meant the destruction of a nation and continued injustice as a result. Had he listened to the Northern populace, the Confederacy would have won and emancipation would have not occurred. Considering how long it took the US to desegregate the South, that's not a wild claim.

The same can be said for General Robert E. Lee of the Confederacy. One theory (and I tend to agree with it) is that after two years of defensive warfare fought mainly in Virginia, and despite several great Confederate victories, the Southern populace and several influential men in their government demanded a decisive, offensive victory from Lee's army. They were tired of fighting in their own backyard, feeling like Lee and the Rebel army had to take the fight to the North.

Feeling the pressure, Lee marched his army across the Potomac Maryland in the summer of 1863 hoping to secure their support (MD was neutral), and then into Pennsylvania where he met the Union front at Gettysburg on July 1. Despite a decided tactical disadvantage before the battle even began (the Union held the high ground), Lee pushed his army into the heart of the Union corps, hoping his soldiers would find a way. He did this because he felt that this would be decisive blow that the Confederacy craved. Against conventional wisdom, the battle commenced. By July 4, Lee's army was in retreat back to the Potomac, and the Union found new life after the first two years of the war brought them to their knees.

The point is simple: those who are smart enough to stick to conventional wisdom rather than listening to public opinion usually come out victorious in the end. If Kevin Lowe caved to pressure from the EIG and the fans, then shame on him for not knowing better. That goes for Tambellini, or any executive for that matter, who fears the fallout from a rebuild might piss off the fanbase.

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01-05-2010, 01:51 AM
  #111
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Originally Posted by A Vandelay View Post
The point is simple: those who are smart enough to stick to conventional wisdom rather than listening to public opinion usually come out victorious in the end. If Kevin Lowe caved to pressure from the EIG and the fans, then shame on him for not knowing better. That goes for Tambellini, or any executive for that matter, who fears the fallout from a rebuild might piss off the fanbase.
I keep hearing about how the fans wouldn't like a rebuild, and how fans think the Oilers are a good team. Really? That's completely incomprehensible to me. How much more evidence do people need than 29th?

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01-05-2010, 01:58 AM
  #112
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Originally Posted by OneSharpMarble View Post
When the crowd is chanting "Doan" and you take "Kelly" you aren't doing a good job.
6th and 7th draft position players on average turn out to be "nice players" by that i mean valuable NHLers. The Oilers screwed up on that pick but the year before hit a home run (Ryan Smyth) and got nice player the year after in Boyd Devereaux. As a rule of thumb if you can get 1 NHL player out of a draft you have done a decent job (with scouting the way it is these days the number is probably closer too 2). But when the slats/lowe era was drafting one solid NHLer a draft is a job well done; 94 was Smyth, 95 Laraque, 96 Devereaux, Pisani, Poti, 97 Chimera, 98 Horcoff, 99 Comrie, 00 Lombardi, 01 Hemsky. This franchise has not excelled at drafting but has not lagged behind the pack either.

Over the last 20 some years if your team picks 10th or lower on average that player has a better chance to turn out a dud rather than a stud.

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01-05-2010, 07:36 AM
  #113
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6th and 7th draft position players on average turn out to be "nice players" by that i mean valuable NHLers. The Oilers screwed up on that pick but the year before hit a home run (Ryan Smyth) and got nice player the year after in Boyd Devereaux. As a rule of thumb if you can get 1 NHL player out of a draft you have done a decent job (with scouting the way it is these days the number is probably closer too 2). But when the slats/lowe era was drafting one solid NHLer a draft is a job well done; 94 was Smyth, 95 Laraque, 96 Devereaux, Pisani, Poti, 97 Chimera, 98 Horcoff, 99 Comrie, 00 Lombardi, 01 Hemsky. This franchise has not excelled at drafting but has not lagged behind the pack either.

Over the last 20 some years if your team picks 10th or lower on average that player has a better chance to turn out a dud rather than a stud.
On one hand your analysis is correct. The Oilers have not been as bad as some might think with respect to identifying NHL calibre players. But the problem is that in the group you outline most of the names are role players at best. The exceptions are Hemsky, Smyth and Comrie. Smyth and Hemsky are separated by 7 years so are in many ways are bookends of different generations. Horcoff was a project that despite his contract has worked out fairly well. So from this group how do you make an effective top-six for example? Because the Oilers need to over-pay to get players via FA finding gems is even more important for this franchise, and not missing those with first round picks is significant as well. So while the drafts may not have been disasters they have contributed to sustained midiocrity.

I think that the draft choices in the last four years have been on the whole pretty good. As you point out it is not easy to identify NHL calibre players. But with a roster of 22 players + spares allowing for turn-over every decade or so I am not sure that 1 decent player per year cuts the mustard. And one would hope that one in five years brings either a gem or someone who substantially out performs expectations.

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01-05-2010, 08:21 AM
  #114
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Were you in favor of that trade. If you (or anybody else) was, would this seasons disaster altered your plan to apparently try & compete immediatly?
Cause thats what the Oilers are likely doing, & I really dont get why the org could be crtisized for altering their plan. Many other things, but not that.
The point from Beerfish is that management can't seem to stick to one plan and move forward. How hard is it to identify win now vs rebuild. Posters here say HFOil is Biploar, hell, the team itself seems the same so you can't blame them. Like Beer said, they seem to plan ever quarter of the season, 20 games at a time.

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01-05-2010, 08:38 AM
  #115
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On one hand your analysis is correct. The Oilers have not been as bad as some might think with respect to identifying NHL calibre players. But the problem is that in the group you outline most of the names are role players at best. The exceptions are Hemsky, Smyth and Comrie. Smyth and Hemsky are separated by 7 years so are in many ways are bookends of different generations. Horcoff was a project that despite his contract has worked out fairly well. So from this group how do you make an effective top-six for example? Because the Oilers need to over-pay to get players via FA finding gems is even more important for this franchise, and not missing those with first round picks is significant as well. So while the drafts may not have been disasters they have contributed to sustained midiocrity.

I think that the draft choices in the last four years have been on the whole pretty good. As you point out it is not easy to identify NHL calibre players. But with a roster of 22 players + spares allowing for turn-over every decade or so I am not sure that 1 decent player per year cuts the mustard. And one would hope that one in five years brings either a gem or someone who substantially out performs expectations.

So true. But then the development system we have setup...if you want to call it a "development system" was and still is the pits. There's that post in the WJHC thread that puts it best:
We draft Nino Neiderreiter, we make him into a plugger. Detroit drafts him, they make him into the next Zetterberg.

The Oilers system of development appears to be mould the players to suit roles, not use the players to the best of their ability and go from there. Granted, this model doesn't work for everyone but nonetheless, the way the Oilers brings up players is extremely flawed

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01-05-2010, 08:42 AM
  #116
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The point from Beerfish is that management can't seem to stick to one plan and move forward. How hard is it to identify win now vs rebuild. Posters here say HFOil is Biploar, hell, the team itself seems the same so you can't blame them. Like Beer said, they seem to plan ever quarter of the season, 20 games at a time.
They are reactive instead of proactive. React to Pronger (not their fault), react to Smyth's demands, react to poor goaltending (Conkanen), reactionary trades without any real foresight Pronger>Lupul>Pitkanen>Cole>O'Sullivan>? Following a supposed rebuild decision (letting Smyth go) with moves a win now team would make (Sign Souray, trade Greene and Stoll for Visnovsky) (Sign Comrie + Khabibulin). There is no rhyme or reason. No plan or vision. Only reactions.

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01-05-2010, 08:49 AM
  #117
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I'm not a big Lowe supporter by any means and i can't believe that i'm going to agree with Narnia here but the Lowe hatred is a bit over the top..... He wasn't the worst GM in the league by a long shot but you would think that he was based on some of the reactions here. I'm not saying that he was a very good GM either, he had his strengths (trades) and he had his weaknesses (contract negotiations and big mouth), he was a mediocre GM just like the teams that hit the ice under his tenure but he's not this satanic figure that some of you people make him out to be....However, i do admit that he did f over this current team something lovely but this isn't exactly the easiest place to be a GM considering all the factors of a place like Edmonton so he always had his hands tied somewhat, i could have done without his false promises though.

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01-05-2010, 09:02 AM
  #118
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Originally Posted by A Vandelay View Post
I posted my theory of blaming the fans over on OilersNation, and it seems that it could use posting here. So, without further adieu, a little history lesson from the American Civil War is in order for those who feel that the fans are the problem...

If Abraham Lincoln would have caved to the demands of the numerous Northern dissenters during the war, you would probably be looking at an entirely different map of the United States today (both geographically and demographically). Instead, Lincoln understood that conceding defeat to the South meant the destruction of a nation and continued injustice as a result. Had he listened to the Northern populace, the Confederacy would have won and emancipation would have not occurred. Considering how long it took the US to desegregate the South, that's not a wild claim.

The same can be said for General Robert E. Lee of the Confederacy. One theory (and I tend to agree with it) is that after two years of defensive warfare fought mainly in Virginia, and despite several great Confederate victories, the Southern populace and several influential men in their government demanded a decisive, offensive victory from Lee's army. They were tired of fighting in their own backyard, feeling like Lee and the Rebel army had to take the fight to the North.

Feeling the pressure, Lee marched his army across the Potomac Maryland in the summer of 1863 hoping to secure their support (MD was neutral), and then into Pennsylvania where he met the Union front at Gettysburg on July 1. Despite a decided tactical disadvantage before the battle even began (the Union held the high ground), Lee pushed his army into the heart of the Union corps, hoping his soldiers would find a way. He did this because he felt that this would be decisive blow that the Confederacy craved. Against conventional wisdom, the battle commenced. By July 4, Lee's army was in retreat back to the Potomac, and the Union found new life after the first two years of the war brought them to their knees.

The point is simple: those who are smart enough to stick to conventional wisdom rather than listening to public opinion usually come out victorious in the end. If Kevin Lowe caved to pressure from the EIG and the fans, then shame on him for not knowing better. That goes for Tambellini, or any executive for that matter, who fears the fallout from a rebuild might piss off the fanbase.
That was a great story and I am impressed with your knowledge. BUt i was disappointed to see what you said at the end, because it is the words of a fan that is trying to influence management with their public opinion, just as you are warning against. Basically you are saying "listen to me and do a complete rebuild, but don't listen to the people who might be pissed off if you listen to me".

It is people that suggest a "complete rebuild" that make me wonder, what has the team been doing since Ryan Smyth was traded? Sure they made some moves to acquire/sign huge contracts (Souray/Lubo/Horcoff), but they also have a load of great young players that are still learning the game, especially the NHL game. It bears striking resemblence to the Blackhawks of 2 or 3 years ago with a 6 million dollar goalie, 7 million dollar defenseman, etc. etc...and toews, barker, seabrook, et al. The fact that people are calling for a complete rebuild now shows to me precisely that, in fact, oilers fans are not patient enough for a complete rebuild.

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01-05-2010, 09:05 AM
  #119
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Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
Following a supposed rebuild decision (letting Smyth go)
For me, this move was never a conscious decision to rebuild, it was more a last minute attempt to salvage an unfortunate situation that had spiralled out of control when Smyth (perhaps rashly) decided to call Lowe's bluff at the 11th hour.

Regarding this team's recent history of reactionary decision making vs. a set plan, it's hard to disagree. IMO it characterizes Lowe's penchant for "scattershot" GMing...we saw it with his "5 assets" Pronger trade, and we see it with how easily this team seems to swing from plan to plan, lately it seems like it's happening even multiple times in the same season.

It's a commendable trait to be flexible, but not to the point where it looks like you're flailing wildly to keep your ahead above water.

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01-05-2010, 09:05 AM
  #120
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I'm not a big Lowe supporter by any means and i can't believe that i'm going to agree with Narnia here but the Lowe hatred is a bit over the top..... He wasn't the worst GM in the league by a long shot but you would think that he was based on some of the reactions here. I'm not saying that he was a very good GM either, he had his strengths (trades) and he had his weaknesses (contract negotiations and big mouth), he was a mediocre GM just like the teams that hit the ice under his tenure but he's not this satanic figure that some of you people make him out to be....However, i do admit that he did f over this current team something lovely but this isn't exactly the easiest place to be a GM considering all the factors of a place like Edmonton so he always had his hands tied somewhat, i could have done without his false promises though.
One big league team and two minor league developmental teams all in or right next to last place in their respective leagues. Go look at the Springfield roster. It is a death valley of talent. The player development and big league roster are his direct resposnibility. The meat and potatoes of his job. All you have to do is look at the rosters and their respective places in the standings to see this team is one of the worse if not worst run clubs in the league.

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01-05-2010, 09:10 AM
  #121
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That was a great story and I am impressed with your knowledge. BUt i was disappointed to see what you said at the end, because it is the words of a fan that is trying to influence management with their public opinion, just as you are warning against. Basically you are saying "listen to me and do a complete rebuild, but don't listen to the people who might be pissed off if you listen to me".

It is people that suggest a "complete rebuild" that make me wonder, what has the team been doing since Ryan Smyth was traded? Sure they made some moves to acquire/sign huge contracts (Souray/Lubo/Horcoff), but they also have a load of great young players that are still learning the game, especially the NHL game. It bears striking resemblence to the Blackhawks of 2 or 3 years ago with a 6 million dollar goalie, 7 million dollar defenseman, etc. etc...and toews, barker, seabrook, et al. The fact that people are calling for a complete rebuild now shows to me precisely that, in fact, oilers fans are not patient enough for a complete rebuild.

Im sorry but youve got to be joking. This is not an uncommon stance and every time I hear it I have to cringe. There is no way this team has been rebuilding. Trying to trade for Heatley this summer, for three young players I may add, acquiring Khabibulin, and Comrie. Just in the last year alone. What rebuilding team does that?

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01-05-2010, 09:18 AM
  #122
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Im sorry but youve got to be joking. This is not an uncommon stance and every time I hear it I have to cringe. There is no way this team has been rebuilding. Trying to trade for Heatley this summer, for three young players I may add, acquiring Khabibulin, and Comrie. Just in the last year alone. What rebuilding team does that?
I am not saying they did a good job at it, or swayed, as that poster mentioned, based on public demand...(actually most likely based on owner demand)...but i think that was the "yes lets do that" kind of focus the months following Smyth's departure.

Just for example, does nobody remember the huge amount of draft picks lowe acquired that year, the prospects, etc. etc.?

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01-05-2010, 09:22 AM
  #123
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One big league team and two minor league developmental teams all in or right next to last place in their respective leagues. Go look at the Springfield roster. It is a death valley of talent. The player development and big league roster are his direct resposnibility. The meat and potatoes of his job. All you have to do is look at the rosters and their respective places in the standings to see this team is one of the worse if not worst run clubs in the league.
I agree that he definitely f'd up in the last couple of years, no question about it but i'm looking at his whole tenure and there were clearly ups and downs when it came down to it, look at 2006 for instance, he might have been the best GM in the game that year making the Pronger and Peca trades, the Roloson trade, Spacek and Samsonov trades and there are some other good trades that are not immediately coming to mind, he also kept this team competitive for years before that despite working with one of the smallest budgets..... The Pronger situation really signaled the beginning of his downfall and he started to become a desperate GM trying to restore the teams' image (Horcoff contract and all the chasing rainbow moves) but before Prongergate, he was widely regarding as one of the better GM's in the game, people around here have a short memory.


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01-05-2010, 09:28 AM
  #124
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I am not saying they did a good job at it, or swayed, as that poster mentioned, based on public demand...(actually most likely based on owner demand)...but i think that was the "yes lets do that" kind of focus the months following Smyth's departure.

Just for example, does nobody remember the huge amount of draft picks lowe acquired that year, the prospects, etc. etc.?
The Smyth deal was a rebuild move, although I tend to agree with Digger that it was more a case of Lowe letting his temper get the best of him in negotiations with Smyth more than anything. You are right in pointing out what we got in return for Smyth was what a rebuilding team would get. But almost every move since then has been a win now move. That is not a team that is rebuilding does.

You bring up Smyth and point to our return as a stockpiling of draft picks prospects right? So what does Kevin do? He promptly goes out and tries to replace Smyth, signs Penner on an offer sheet, giving up more and better picks than he acquired in the Smyth deal. He then signs Souray and trades Greene and Stoll (two young players) for an older Visnovsky. To suggest this team has been in rebuild at any point in Lowe's tenure is flat out wrong. And it needs to stop.

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01-05-2010, 09:38 AM
  #125
hemskysuncle
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Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
The Smyth deal was a rebuild move, although I tend to agree with Digger that it was more a case of Lowe letting his temper get the best of him in negotiations with Smyth more than anything. You are right in pointing out what we got in return for Smyth was what a rebuilding team would get. But almost every move since then has been a win now move. That is not a team that is rebuilding does.

You bring up Smyth and point to our return as a stockpiling of draft picks prospects right? So what does Kevin do? He promptly goes out and tries to replace Smyth, signs Penner on an offer sheet, giving up more and better picks than he acquired in the Smyth deal. He then signs Souray and trades Greene and Stoll (two young players) for an older Visnovsky. To suggest this team has been in rebuild at any point in Lowe's tenure is flat out wrong. And it needs to stop.
possibly that is because nobody would allow a real rebuild

but really...like I said, you have ground to stand on, but it depends on which angle you stand at as to what shade of green the grass is. Penner as a "replacement" for Smyth...but he was acquired after his rookie year. I was not happy that Greene was the one that went with Stoll, but Stoll needed to go...he never recovered his form after the concussion. And at the time Lowe was on the "puck moving defenseman" kick at the time most people were on the Atkins diet kick...the veteran presence with actual ability (the combo wasn't there on the oilers) was needed...but i agree he went too far. It seems he was caving to the idea of what the public demanded, and strangely got a promotion for it (same kind of thing happened in my co...someone sucked so they got promoted )

In the end, the rebuild that was to be was flubbed up...but I would never be able to honestly deny the intent. And the fix for this oilers team (which is filled with a whole load of 20-24 year olds and then a bunch of overpaid thirtysomethings) is to retool the contract structure of your team, not to rebuild. Sure getting a top 5 pick will help, but there are just too many players put in roles they don't belong in, and too many players that are paid too much money for their given role as a result.

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