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Old
01-08-2010, 11:06 PM
  #51
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Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
Vancouver has Edler for a puckmover in addition to Ehrhoff. They aren't that desperate. What is really astounding is Ehrhoff's offensive numbers because he is primarily second unit (qualteam for last 20 games or so). Ehrhoff is signed for both this year and next year.

Not for you, but what offends me is the trashing of Ehrhoff in favor of Pickles. What made him stand out for me was the compete factor which showed up in shotblocking and some non-statistical areas. I salute Vlasic for being more aggressive defensively this year, but that was something that Ehrhoff has had for a bit and still outstrips Vlasic by a mile. That shows up in teammates numbers if nothing other than Corsi. It absolutely offended me when Vlasic would dodge pucks when taking on his good defensive position in front of the net. He improved in that area last year and again this year. But it still speaks to his compete factor. Last year the two most aggressive shotblockers for the Sharks were Murray and Ehrhoff.

I also don't think Vlasic is close to Ehrhoff in speed although he is smooth and has some moves. There was a big difference in that speed and reaction when chasing down dumped pucks in the defensive zone, favoring Ehrhoff.
I tend to agree that as of right now Ehrhoff is the better of the two players. And for this year and next they make the same money. But IMO Vlasic will continue to grow as a player, and while he might not reach Ehrhoff's offensive numbers he is going to be a better two Dman.

If you want to compare you have to look at a minimum of a 4 year range 10-13

During which Erhoff will likely earn 4-5 Million more than Vlasic and might only enjoy 2 year where his offensive play is that much better than Vlasic's. Right now i would go as far as to say that Vlasic is forced to cover for Blake, where Ehrhoff is able to play full out.

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01-08-2010, 11:26 PM
  #52
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I tend to agree that as of right now Ehrhoff is the better of the two players. And for this year and next they make the same money. But IMO Vlasic will continue to grow as a player, and while he might not reach Ehrhoff's offensive numbers he is going to be a better two Dman.

If you want to compare you have to look at a minimum of a 4 year range 10-13

During which Erhoff will likely earn 4-5 Million more than Vlasic and might only enjoy 2 year where his offensive play is that much better than Vlasic's. Right now i would go as far as to say that Vlasic is forced to cover for Blake, where Ehrhoff is able to play full out.
With O'Brien?

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01-09-2010, 01:10 AM
  #53
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Vlasic play would be alot better if Blake wasn't so terrible.

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01-09-2010, 02:01 AM
  #54
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Originally Posted by Herschel View Post
No Vlasic was kept because he make 3.1 through 2012-2013 compared to Erhoff who is only signed through 2010-11 and then will likely be in line for a nice increase. To judge which was the better move you are going to have to wait till 2011-2012 and compare Erhoff and Vlasic, also counting that Erhoff will be making more money.





I have to disagree with you that Blake is better than Vlasic??? Sure he used to be, but his games a slipped since his injury. And i think alot of the way Pickles plays is exactly how TM wants him to play. He isnt asked to jump into the play, in fact playing with an aging Blake likely means he is told (or feels) like he needs to take less chances.

IMO Pickles will never be an Boyle or a Pronger. He is going to continue to mature into a solid two-way top 4 Dman who can play 20+ minutes till he is in his mid-30s.
Sorry, I guess I wasn't clear enough. To the first point, I don't care about Ehrhoff here. Based on the D that is here this year, someone (presumably DW), decided Vlasic was going to be the #2 Dman on this team (unless he though Blake would improve from last year). That involves stepping up into that role. I haven't seen him do that, I think he is worse than last year, and wonder if he can handle needing to be the most reliable, 2nd highest minute Dman. It doesn't look like he can based on this year so far and last seasons playoffs. Hell, maybe he'll prove me wrong come the 2nd half of the season, that part matters more anyway.

To my 2nd point you quoted, I don't mean that I think Blake is better than Vlasic, I mean I think Blake is better than Leach, Demers, Huskins, and he was supposed to be better than Murray. Vlasic has always been paired with a better partner than (although Blake has sucked this year, so it's less true now, but he wasn't supposed to suck) than the other top Dmen. For example, last season Pickles played with Blake (who I think we all feel didn't suck too badly last year), while Boyle played with Luko, and Ehrhoff played with Murray. It's pretty obvious Vlasic didn't need to carry his pairing, Boyle and Ehrhoff clearly did sort of carry those (look at the TOI, Murray and Luko were clear 5 and 6). I want to see Vlasic get to the point that he can be safely paired with the call-up or the rookie. He clearly can't yet.

I know he's still young, but he's also a 4th year NHL player making 3+ mil. I'd like to see him be stepping up more to the level he needs to be for this team to win. He's not doing that.

But yeah, partly my view is clouded by the fact that I think Ehrhoff was, is, and will be a better more impactful player and I wish we'd kept him (and I do wish we'd dumped Blake and kept both).

Still, I hope Vlasic turns it around and starts looking better than the rest of the team, who seems to enjoy passing to the opposition as much as their teammates...

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01-09-2010, 04:34 AM
  #55
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Originally Posted by OneTooth View Post
The Corsi rating that SJEasy posted pretty much backs up what I'm seeing.

Pretty much, yeah.

LOL. We'll just have to agree to disagree. I'd say Demers and Boyle smoke him.

Not sure why this matters. The Sharks are built to win now. Who cares if Vlasic could be good in 2, 3, 10 years? The bottom line is that in 2009-2010 Ehrhoff is the better Dman and will probably be so for a few more years. Not sure how many more years the Sharks have a shot at the Cup but they need talent now. And right now, I don't see how they can go very far in the playoffs with Blake, Vlasic and Huskins playing.

Again, we'll have to agree to disagree. He was a disaster in last year's playoffs. He isn't worth the money. And even if he is worth the money right now, his skillset isn't high enough for what the Sharks need now.

Never said he couldn't improve. Just said that he hasn't shown improvement. Big difference.
Even if we are trying to win now we must take into account what happens in the future.

Thinking Vlasic isnt worth his contract now, and lacks foot speed is absolutely rediculous. Idk why you even try to back it up.

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01-09-2010, 10:01 AM
  #56
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Originally Posted by CrazedZooChimp View Post
Sorry, I guess I wasn't clear enough. To the first point, I don't care about Ehrhoff here. Based on the D that is here this year, someone (presumably DW), decided Vlasic was going to be the #2 Dman on this team (unless he though Blake would improve from last year). That involves stepping up into that role. I haven't seen him do that, I think he is worse than last year, and wonder if he can handle needing to be the most reliable, 2nd highest minute Dman. It doesn't look like he can based on this year so far and last seasons playoffs. Hell, maybe he'll prove me wrong come the 2nd half of the season, that part matters more anyway.

To my 2nd point you quoted, I don't mean that I think Blake is better than Vlasic, I mean I think Blake is better than Leach, Demers, Huskins, and he was supposed to be better than Murray. Vlasic has always been paired with a better partner than (although Blake has sucked this year, so it's less true now, but he wasn't supposed to suck) than the other top Dmen. For example, last season Pickles played with Blake (who I think we all feel didn't suck too badly last year), while Boyle played with Luko, and Ehrhoff played with Murray. It's pretty obvious Vlasic didn't need to carry his pairing, Boyle and Ehrhoff clearly did sort of carry those (look at the TOI, Murray and Luko were clear 5 and 6). I want to see Vlasic get to the point that he can be safely paired with the call-up or the rookie. He clearly can't yet.

I know he's still young, but he's also a 4th year NHL player making 3+ mil. I'd like to see him be stepping up more to the level he needs to be for this team to win. He's not doing that.

But yeah, partly my view is clouded by the fact that I think Ehrhoff was, is, and will be a better more impactful player and I wish we'd kept him (and I do wish we'd dumped Blake and kept both).

Still, I hope Vlasic turns it around and starts looking better than the rest of the team, who seems to enjoy passing to the opposition as much as their teammates...
While i get what you are saying I think your desire to see Vlasic paired with the 5th or 6th Dman makes any sense. Why do you want your 5th or 6th guy playing more minutes?

Also TM doesnt like to mix up and juggle his lD pairings. He feels that their play improves by playing with the same partner.

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01-09-2010, 01:37 PM
  #57
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Originally Posted by CrazedZooChimp View Post
I want to see Vlasic get to the point that he can be safely paired with the call-up or the rookie. He clearly can't yet.
I find this statement extremely interesting since Huskins has been paired with nothing but rookies and call-ups all year and still continues to get crap around here for every mistake he makes. Not to mention he makes about half as much as Vlasic and shouldn't be expected to be anywhere near his level of play.

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01-09-2010, 02:06 PM
  #58
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I find this statement extremely interesting since Huskins has been paired with nothing but rookies and call-ups all year and still continues to get crap around here for every mistake he makes. Not to mention he makes about half as much as Vlasic and shouldn't be expected to be anywhere near his level of play.
They've also protected Kent Huskins and his partner. Vlasic faces much tougher competition on average and is not getting the better of it when it comes to the quality of teammates either.

Huskins has done a better job of limiting his mistakes as time has gone by and I have been on him a lot less lately but it was still a mistake and I actually don't feel that the comparison between the two is even valid. Why would you put a rookie or a call up with your best defensive defenseman? That means you're throwing him out there against the other team's best line on most nights. That's just stupid.

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01-09-2010, 05:05 PM
  #59
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I would like to see Vlasic pay with Murray but I think they both need to continue to improve before this happens. His pairing has the makings to be a solid shutdown pairing. It also allows Boyle to play away from the other teams #1 line.

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01-09-2010, 05:44 PM
  #60
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I would like to see Vlasic pay with Murray but I think they both need to continue to improve before this happens. His pairing has the makings to be a solid shutdown pairing. It also allows Boyle to play away from the other teams #1 line.
Boyle doesn't play the bulk of his minutes against other team's top lines. He generally is on the ice against the team's checking line. However, he plays so much that he'll see significant time against everyone.

If you throw Murray and Vlasic together, you're looking at either Boyle-Blake or Boyle-Huskins and neither are suited to play with Boyle to be honest.

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01-09-2010, 05:59 PM
  #61
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Originally Posted by Pinkfloyd View Post
Boyle doesn't play the bulk of his minutes against other team's top lines. He generally is on the ice against the team's checking line. However, he plays so much that he'll see significant time against everyone.

If you throw Murray and Vlasic together, you're looking at either Boyle-Blake or Boyle-Huskins and neither are suited to play with Boyle to be honest.
By the numbers, Boyle is playing against first unit PPs but 2nd and 3rd lines 5on5.

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01-09-2010, 06:11 PM
  #62
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By the numbers, Boyle is playing against first unit PPs but 2nd and 3rd lines 5on5.
This is the case during the regular season but what happens come playoffs? Did Boyle not see the bulk of his time against the Duck #1 line last year?

I recall TM changing this near the end of the series to try and get away from this match up.

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01-09-2010, 06:13 PM
  #63
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By the numbers, Boyle is playing against first unit PPs but 2nd and 3rd lines 5on5.
It looks like Blake and Vlasic are seeing the most PK time, or maybe I'm reading btn's site wrong. lol

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01-09-2010, 06:44 PM
  #64
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Can someone tell me why Vlasic needs to step up to his 3 mil contract?

Mediocre top 4 defenseman get payed that money these days and we all know Vlasic is closer to a top pairing dman than that RIGHT NOW!

Murray, who is not overpayed, is only making .5 less than Vlasic. When you notice Blake is making .5 more than him you HAVE to be scratching your head.

Vlasic is the most underpayed sharks defenseman. He should be making atleast 3.5 million.

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01-09-2010, 07:01 PM
  #65
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Can someone tell me why Vlasic needs to step up to his 3 mil contract?

Mediocre top 4 defenseman get payed that money these days and we all know Vlasic is closer to a top pairing dman than that RIGHT NOW!

Murray, who is not overpayed, is only making .5 less than Vlasic. When you notice Blake is making .5 more than him you HAVE to be scratching your head.

Vlasic is the most underpayed sharks defenseman. He should be making atleast 3.5 million.
Clearly blake is making 2 million more than he should. Unless he starts playing like last year even then he was a shell of his formerself.

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01-09-2010, 07:12 PM
  #66
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Originally Posted by Herschel View Post
This is the case during the regular season but what happens come playoffs? Did Boyle not see the bulk of his time against the Duck #1 line last year?

I recall TM changing this near the end of the series to try and get away from this match up.
I don't think he did. I think Blake and Vlasic did, while Murray and Ehrhoff matched against the 2nd line, until those swapped because Blake and Vlasic were getting killed and Murray and Ehrhoff were being effective. Of course, in PK, PP, and late game situations that changed when Ehrhoff and Boyle were put together.

LZ, I've actually started laying off on Huskins much more. I honestly don't think he's playing significantly worse than the bulk of our defense these days...

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01-09-2010, 08:22 PM
  #67
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Clearly blake is making 2 million more than he should. Unless he starts playing like last year even then he was a shell of his formerself.
Still. Murray has a 2.5 million contract which is exactly what he deserves. He is a lower end top 4 dman and he is pretty close to his prime (if he isnt in it now).

Vlasic is a top end top 4 defenseman who can be a top 2 defenseman if need be (which the sharks need/want him to be). Vlasic is making only .5 million than him and will probably improve more than Murray in the next 3 years (but you never know Murray just keeps improving).

We should be raving about how Vlasic is playing better than his contract. You need guys that do that in the cap era.

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01-12-2010, 01:53 PM
  #68
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Exclusion of 4-on-4 (and 5-on-3 and 3-on-5)

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Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
No problem regarding the issue of sample size, but it would be incorporated if he did an all-scenarios numbers. Desjardins also omits 3on5 and 5on3. In all of these cases, there is a good case to be made for publishing the numbers despite the sample size. In Ehrhoff's case, he stands out as we ran the numbers separately. I can also see it in his play in that scenario last year and this year. Additionally, Ehrhoff got significant 4on4 TOI which mitigates the sample size issue. 5on3 shows a big deficiency on the Sharks, not singling out any player.

Glad to have someone else who knows how to read it. I try to comprehend a specific stat before I post comments here.
hi SJEasy,

I posted my reply to your comments on my blog:

http://www.behindthenethockey.com/20...on-3-or-3-on-5

Thanks for the discussion.

Gabe

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01-12-2010, 02:11 PM
  #69
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hi SJEasy,

I posted my reply to your comments on my blog:

http://www.behindthenethockey.com/20...on-3-or-3-on-5

Thanks for the discussion.

Gabe
Thank you for replying here. I am not going to make an account over there, but you can read my comment here.

Ehrhoff had at least 2 goals at 4 on 4, one a game winner. I agree that the sample size is small, but it would be interesting to see what a total stats picture, all situations would show, if you take his situational number for the predominant situations and compare them to the overall number. I did not do that stat. My suspicion is that it was enough to bump his overall number. His overall shot accuracy went way up when taking his overall number and comparing it to the situational numbers that you have posted.

As an aside, he did get significant special situations TOI relative to other players on the team, 3on5 and 4on4. I would really like to see yourself or the NHL break out special situations because although they do not occur often, they are often the make or break situations in a game. 3on5, 5on3, 3on4 and 4on3 seem to have a lot of difference between teams.

As something further, I do appreciate the stats work you do. It is very helpful in taking off the tinted glasses when evaluating players and trying to get some insights into the various stats that teams use internally to evaluate their own.

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01-19-2010, 02:03 PM
  #70
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After noticing the trend develop over the season so far... I wanted to check up on Marc-High-and-Wide Vlasic's shooting totals. Turns out Vlasic has 60 shots on goal, and 46 missed. That's bad.

Ehrhoff 08-09: 165 on goal / 79 missed = 68% on goal
Vlasic 09-10: 60 on goal / 46 missed = 57% on goal

That doesn't take into consideration that Ehrhoff more often than not, was passing off the boards. I haven't noticed Pickles attempting that at all.

Boyle is now at 72% , Blake is at 75%, Murray is at 67%.

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01-19-2010, 02:35 PM
  #71
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Vlasic doesn't have a hard shot, and I believe that more often than not he shots wide looking for deflections, or just to keep it deep. I don't know if this is factored in.

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01-19-2010, 02:45 PM
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I dunno... high and wide isn't the best place to shoot for a deflection. If that's the case, at 57% and with only 8 assists, I'd say it's time for a new strategy.

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01-19-2010, 07:16 PM
  #73
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I dunno... high and wide isn't the best place to shoot for a deflection. If that's the case, at 57% and with only 8 assists, I'd say it's time for a new strategy.
Does the miss count include the vast number of shots he has blocked as well? That is something I've noticed with Vlasic (and a lot of our D), they don't move well while shooting and it seems to lead to lots of blocked shots (the weak shot of Vlasic doesn't help either). That was another area I'd felt Ehrhoff had improved largely going into his last season as a Shark, moving to an open shooting lane.

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01-19-2010, 07:43 PM
  #74
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Does the miss count include the vast number of shots he has blocked as well? That is something I've noticed with Vlasic (and a lot of our D), they don't move well while shooting and it seems to lead to lots of blocked shots (the weak shot of Vlasic doesn't help either). That was another area I'd felt Ehrhoff had improved largely going into his last season as a Shark, moving to an open shooting lane.
I don't know how they score it, but a blocked shot is a missed shot to me

I totally agree that our defense is not getting shots through, and it's definitely due to their position and lack of movement while shooting. But Vlasic didn't have much a problem last year. He was no Ray Borque, but he put them on goal or at least nearby. His high and wide tendency this year is troubling.

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01-19-2010, 08:21 PM
  #75
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Vlasic has been great the past 10 or so games without putting up a single point. I really could care less if he puts up 30+ points. We have others to do the offensive work.

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