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Please don't be penciling Hall into our lineup!

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Old
01-10-2010, 11:50 AM
  #1
oilsands
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Please don't be penciling Hall into our lineup!

Throughout these forums I see Oiler fans pencilling Taylor Hall into our lineup (to their glee), and it drives me nuts. We are setting ourselves up for a dissapointment if we are depending on this.

We are in 29th place, with the Hurricanes 6 points 'ahead' of us. As it sits right now, we have an 18.8% chances of winning the lottery and moving up to 1st, and a 42% chance of remaining where we are (2nd). That means that there is also a 40% chance that a team seeded 3rd to 6th could win the lottery and usurp our position.
- source: http://www.nhlscap.com/draft.htm

Let me re-empasize my point:
18.8% chance of picking first
42% chance of picking second
40% chance of picking third

Conclusion: the odds are against us to pick Hall. There are also 3-4 other teams within spitting distance of 2nd, and Carolina is rumoured to be ready to dump their roster (further cementing their position). The Oilers have delusional management and a rapid fanbase to please so they may not become sellers or 'big' sellers at the deadline like they should. I wouldn't rule out stationary or lateral moves by Tambo.

With that being said, I would not at all be displeased with Fowler or Seguin. Seguin is a centre, and we desperately need another skilled/playmaking centre with size (TS is 6'1", 186).

I'm not trying to be a wet blanket, but I think a lot of Oil fans need to be brought back down to earth.

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01-10-2010, 11:57 AM
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s7ark
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Carolina reportedly really likes Seguin so a trade may be available. Besides, if the Canes make up their game in hand on us, they are only 4p back of us. If we dump enough vets we can still chase the 1stOA pick

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01-10-2010, 12:01 PM
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this board should get ready to deal with the fact that the team will end up draft between 8th and 10th--that is my prediction

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01-10-2010, 12:04 PM
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No reason to trade up, either is fine IMO. I do have a slight bias towards Seguin as I think he has the higher top end potential.

That being said, when all is said and done on Tuesday, I expect Carolina will be 2 points behind us. A win for them over the severely undermanned Sens today and a win-win game against the Leafs on Tuesday. All we have to do is lose to the Preds. Simple!

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01-10-2010, 12:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jumptheshark View Post
this board should get ready to deal with the fact that the team will end up draft between 8th and 10th--that is my prediction
And your predictions are always 100% accurate? Can't I just as easily say that this board needs to deal with the fact that Hall is clearly ours as we will end up with the 1stOA for sure? After all, reality is closer to my pulled-out-of-my-ass prediction then yours...

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01-10-2010, 12:08 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by saskyoil View Post
Throughout these forums I see Oiler fans pencilling Taylor Hall into our lineup (to their glee), and it drives me nuts. We are setting ourselves up for a dissapointment if we are depending on this.

We are in 29th place, with the Hurricanes 6 points 'ahead' of us. As it sits right now, we have an 18.8% chances of winning the lottery and moving up to 1st, and a 42% chance of remaining where we are (2nd). That means that there is also a 40% chance that a team seeded 3rd to 6th could win the lottery and usurp our position.
- source: http://www.nhlscap.com/draft.htm

Let me re-empasize my point:
18.8% chance of picking first
42% chance of picking second
40% chance of picking third

Conclusion: the odds are against us to pick Hall. There are also 3-4 other teams within spitting distance of 2nd, and Carolina is rumoured to be ready to dump their roster (further cementing their position). The Oilers have delusional management and a rapid fanbase to please so they may not become sellers or 'big' sellers at the deadline like they should. I wouldn't rule out stationary or lateral moves by Tambo.

With that being said, I would not at all be displeased with Fowler or Seguin. Seguin is a centre, and we desperately need another skilled/playmaking centre with size (TS is 6'1", 186).

I'm not trying to be a wet blanket, but I think a lot of Oil fans need to be brought back down to earth.
You do know that teams not in the top 6 can win the Lottery? Your math is off by a bunch. Staying at 2nd is higher than 42%


Last edited by Valic: 01-10-2010 at 12:13 PM.
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Old
01-10-2010, 12:11 PM
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Originally Posted by s7ark View Post
And your predictions are always 100% accurate? Can't I just as easily say that this board needs to deal with the fact that Hall is clearly ours as we will end up with the 1stOA for sure? After all, reality is closer to my pulled-out-of-my-ass prediction then yours...
as of late my predictions have been bang on

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01-10-2010, 12:16 PM
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No reason to trade up, either is fine IMO. I do have a slight bias towards Seguin as I think he has the higher top end potential.

That being said, when all is said and done on Tuesday, I expect Carolina will be 2 points behind us. A win for them over the severely undermanned Sens today and a win-win game against the Leafs on Tuesday. All we have to do is lose to the Preds. Simple!
I think the Canes will win the game in question, it's the Sens after all.

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01-10-2010, 12:16 PM
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Originally Posted by Valic View Post
You do know that teams not in the top 6 can win the Lottery? Your math is off by a bunch. Staying at 2nd is higher than 42%
You know that you can only move up a maximum of 5 spots in the draft right? That means if we remain in 2nd, we only have to worry about 3-7 winning the lottery.

How is my math wrong? Please let me know.

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01-10-2010, 12:18 PM
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I really hope we don't get Hall. He did nothing in the WJC to convince me he is the superstar we need. I'd rather have Fowler at this point.

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01-10-2010, 12:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jumptheshark View Post
as of late my predictions have been bang on
What's the lottery numbers for next weeks draw? (Pm them)

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01-10-2010, 12:25 PM
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...Tyler Seguin then?

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01-10-2010, 12:27 PM
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Originally Posted by jumptheshark View Post
as of late my predictions have been bang on
Really? Excellent. Who will win the cup this year, Kreskin? There's still time to place a bet on this.

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01-10-2010, 12:27 PM
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Originally Posted by saskyoil View Post
You know that you can only move up a maximum of 5 spots in the draft right? That means if we remain in 2nd, we only have to worry about 3-7 winning the lottery.

How is my math wrong? Please let me know.
Not that I claim to know the rules of the lottery backwards and forwards, but there are a few things I'm certain of:

1) You can only move up 5 spots, which means only 1-5 has any chance of picking 1st.

2) You can only move down 1 spot. So, if the Oilers remain in 2nd, they will be picking anywhere from 1-3.

BTW, from everything I've heard about Seguin, I would have no problem with him as a consolation prize. I do think they need to get either him or Hall though.

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01-10-2010, 12:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jumptheshark View Post
as of late my predictions have been bang on
lol

I don't even know where to begin with a statement like this...

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01-10-2010, 12:29 PM
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Originally Posted by jet228 View Post
I really hope we don't get Hall. He did nothing in the WJC to convince me he is the superstar we need. I'd rather have Fowler at this point.
12p is doing nothing? He was 1p back of Eberle while being almost 2 years younger.

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01-10-2010, 12:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by saskyoil View Post
You know that you can only move up a maximum of 5 spots in the draft right? That means if we remain in 2nd, we only have to worry about 3-7 winning the lottery.

How is my math wrong? Please let me know.
You can only move up five spots in the lottery. So if someone wins that is say past the seventh pick it wont affect the top picks at all.

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01-10-2010, 12:34 PM
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lol

I don't even know where to begin with a statement like this...
out of my last 10 predictions I am 8 for 10


the oiler roster is not as bad as we think--and when other teams dump their players and fall in the standings--oilers will start winning games we dont want them to do

oilers will pick 8 to 10 make book on it

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01-10-2010, 12:36 PM
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Originally Posted by jumptheshark View Post
as of late my predictions have been bang on
Says the guy sporting the "Hot like Bea" avatar....

It didn't have to do with a prediction of any kind did it?

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01-10-2010, 12:38 PM
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Hall... Seguin... Fowler... it's all good.

Finishing 8-10, on the other hand... that would suck. But how's that going to happen? How could this bunch of losers possibly win enough hockey games to pass 6-8 teams in the standings?


What really worries me is if our blessed management decides that instead of using the draft pick to draft the future of our franchise, they could use it to trade for some big name talent. I am picturing a conversation that goes something like this:

Tambellini: "I really think we need a strong center to build around. This franchise has been hurting for one since Doug Weight left..."
Prendergast: "Yeah, but we need a rock on defense too."
Tambellini: "We might be able to get a future shut-down guy at the deadline if we move some assets..."
Prendergast: "It's not going to be easy to move the kind of contracts we've got..."
Tambellini: "This is going to take a long time... so many holes. I can't believe this organization has so many holes."

Kevin Lowe walks in, carrying a Booster-Juice.

Lowe: "GRRREATTT NEWS GUYS!"
Tambellini and Prendergast cringe.
Lowe: "Well isn't somebody going to ask what it is?"
Tambellini: (long sigh of despair) "What is it?"
Lowe: "I just got off the phone with Don Waddell!"
Tambellini: "uh-oh..."
Lowe: "Don must be drunk or something, because I asked him what it would take to get Ilya Kovalchuk, and he said all he wants is our first round draft pick! HAHAHA, isn't that hilarious?"
(awkward silence)
Lowe: "haha, you guys aren't laughing. Long day, I guess. Hey, whatever. Let's fire up the fax machine and get this done before Don sobers up!"
Tambellini: "Kev... we just told the fans we're not going to trade away the futre..."
Lowe: "Yeah, but it's Kovalchuk! We can give the fans the superstar they've been demanding ever since Pronger left!"
Tambellini: "He's unrestricted. We'd only have him for a couple of months..."
Lowe: "We'll just sign him to an extension! We can clear up the cap space by trading .. uh, I dunno. Other guys or something."
Tambellini: "We can't do it. It would ruin us..."
Lowe: "Well I think we can do it, and we should do it. Have you seen my business card lately? It says President of ... of something-something."
Tambellini and Prendergast look blankly at each other.
Lowe: "Tell you what, I'm just going to phone up Darryl right now and settle this." (dials.) "Darryl? Hi, Kevin. Listen, I've lined up a trade that'll bring a superstar to town, but Steve doesn't want to do it because he doesn't want to trade a draft pick. What's that? Yeah, that's what I said. Steve doesn't want to trade a draft pick to get a superstar.... ok, thanks, bye."
Tambellini and Prendergast do double face-palms.
Lowe: "Well, there you have it. Fire up the fax machine. By the way, Steve, Darryl says you're fired. I'll provide you a good reference if you get your stuff out of my office before Monday."

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Old
01-10-2010, 12:42 PM
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12p is doing nothing? He was 1p back of Eberle while being almost 2 years younger.
Scoring points in meangless games and no pressure situations is one thing. Where was Hall when the games mattered? That is the telling stat.

Any guy with skill can score when its easy. Just ask Rob Schremp. I look for guys who score and contribute when the chips are down a'la Eberle.

I know Hall is a 17 year old, but he didn't show me anything resembling heart in those games.

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01-10-2010, 12:57 PM
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Scoring points in meangless games and no pressure situations is one thing. Where was Hall when the games mattered? That is the telling stat.

Any guy with skill can score when its easy. Just ask Rob Schremp. I look for guys who score and contribute when the chips are down a'la Eberle.

I know Hall is a 17 year old, but he didn't show me anything resembling heart in those games.
By this argument you can say that Eberle didn't show up against the nothing teams and he's a big game only player. Hall is young and did more on the team as an underager then Crosby or Stamkos did. And no I am not saying Hall> Stamkos and Crosby. Well maybe Stamkos...

And if anyone can rack up points against the easy teams, how come almost nobody did? Where were Kadri and Schenn's hatties against the nothing teams? Oh and Schremp never even approached Hall's numbers in the WJC.

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01-10-2010, 01:06 PM
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Originally Posted by jumptheshark View Post
out of my last 10 predictions I am 8 for 10


the oiler roster is not as bad as we think--and when other teams dump their players and fall in the standings--oilers will start winning games we dont want them to do

oilers will pick 8 to 10 make book on it


bet?

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01-10-2010, 01:12 PM
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Didn't Hall have a goal and two assists in the gold medal game? Not sure what more you could want.

Edit: And you're out to lunch if you think the Oilers can win enough games to get into the 8-10 draft spot. This roster is not better than they look in the standings. It's the definition of a last place team. No starting goalie, no first line, certainly no second line, a lack of any veterans who know how to win. There's like three guys on the roster right now who are playing like above-average NHL players.

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01-10-2010, 01:13 PM
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bet?
I think Toes already challenged him in the Fall 4 Hall thread.

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