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TO's 1st round pick

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Old
01-12-2010, 09:25 AM
  #51
grabo84
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike Jones View Post
While there are no guarantees (On any transaction or draft pick) I would definitely take the odds and make the deal. If I lose the bet I accept responsibility (Like Burke should be doing right now) and move on.
I'm not sure I get your point. Wouldn't moving on mean focusing on the player that you traded for, Phil Kessel, rather than making a bad trade to get the pick back that you traded away? This isn't the Lindros draft, or the Crosby or Ovechkin draft, none of the top players are seen as sure things the way those guys were.

What do you think the barrier is for a deal like that being worth the gamble? Is it Hall, Seguin, or Fowler, or just one of those players? Is it a good deal if the Leafs wind up picking fourth or fifth? If they pick later? All of these are possibilities, and it would be foolish to pretend otherwise, even if they trade away a number of players. Consistency is the most underrated quality in a GM, the Jays are a great example. I want Burke to stick to his plan.

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01-12-2010, 09:37 AM
  #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by grabo84 View Post
I'm not sure I get your point. Wouldn't moving on mean focusing on the player that you traded for, Phil Kessel, rather than making a bad trade to get the pick back that you traded away? This isn't the Lindros draft, or the Crosby or Ovechkin draft, none of the top players are seen as sure things the way those guys were.

What do you think the barrier is for a deal like that being worth the gamble? Is it Hall, Seguin, or Fowler, or just one of those players? Is it a good deal if the Leafs wind up picking fourth or fifth? If they pick later? All of these are possibilities, and it would be foolish to pretend otherwise, even if they trade away a number of players. Consistency is the most underrated quality in a GM, the Jays are a great example. I want Burke to stick to his plan.

I'm not a draftnik at all, but everything that I've heard points to the 2010 draft as being an incredibly deep draft. So Hall/Sequin might not be Crosby or Ovechkin, but both are supposed to be high end NHL players.

My question is...why do many Leaf fans insist on attempting to sell people that the 2010 draft is not that strong? Sort of a rhetorical question, but just because the Leafs largely forfeited their rights to participate in something doesn't make it weaker.

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01-12-2010, 10:03 AM
  #53
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Originally Posted by Neely06 View Post
I'm not a draftnik at all, but everything that I've heard points to the 2010 draft as being an incredibly deep draft. So Hall/Sequin might not be Crosby or Ovechkin, but both are supposed to be high end NHL players.

My question is...why do many Leaf fans insist on attempting to sell people that the 2010 draft is not that strong? Sort of a rhetorical question, but just because the Leafs largely forfeited their rights to participate in something doesn't make it weaker.
Oh no, its absolutely a deep draft, no argument there. The simple fact that its deep doesn't really matter though, because I'm only talking about the top three, who I don't feel are comparable to Lindros, Crosby, Ovechkin in their draft year. That's fairly inarguable at this point IMO. My point was that there's no incentive for Burke to deal his way back into this draft by trading Kessel, because the risks are so high, and the return is so uncertain. For a 50/50 shot at Lindros, maybe the reward is there, but I don't see why he would reverse course.

As far as other Leafs fans go, I can't comment. Maybe wishful thinking?

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01-12-2010, 10:25 AM
  #54
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Originally Posted by grabo84 View Post
Oh no, its absolutely a deep draft, no argument there. The simple fact that its deep doesn't really matter though, because I'm only talking about the top three, who I don't feel are comparable to Lindros, Crosby, Ovechkin in their draft year. That's fairly inarguable at this point IMO. My point was that there's no incentive for Burke to deal his way back into this draft by trading Kessel, because the risks are so high, and the return is so uncertain. For a 50/50 shot at Lindros, maybe the reward is there, but I don't see why he would reverse course.

As far as other Leafs fans go, I can't comment. Maybe wishful thinking?
Noted. Tough to argue with your stance. It seems pretty counter-productive for Leaf fans to pine over re-acquiring that pick back. That's not to devalue it, as it is still a pretty valuable asset for the Bruins, but for in regards to the Leafs...it's gone.

If I were a Leaf fan, and this has nothing to do with my desire as a B's fan to see them tank, I'd be hoping that Burke become an aggressive seller at the deadline for picks/prospects for the 2010 draft (2011 is already being considered a weak draft as far as I know). Move the UFA's for whatever you can get, play some kids (Hanson, Bozak, etc), and hope that June and July are kind months for loading up on talent.

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01-12-2010, 10:50 AM
  #55
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Sourray/Vishnovsky & Edm's 2011 1st rd. pick for the Toronto pick.

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01-12-2010, 10:51 AM
  #56
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Originally Posted by Mike Jones View Post
Tor 2nd for Poni is not a bad deal for a team in the playoff hunt.

Why do people keep insisting that Kaberle is worth a top 3-5 (overall) choice?
What else from Boston makes Toronto a better team next year? It's all about what one team needs to part with a player and what one team is in a position to give up to get a player.

Looking at Boston's assets, there isn't much that can help the Leafs beyond roster players and that pick. Meanwhile, Boston could acquire an elite puckmover without having to touch their development system. Considering their depth on the wings. That's a good thing.

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01-12-2010, 11:20 AM
  #57
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Kaberle ++ might actually be the best available player + package for the Bruins if they are looking to move the pick to make a run now (and next year as well).

Both teams have plenty of moveable pieces + Burke should be semi-desperate to get that pick back.

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01-12-2010, 11:23 AM
  #58
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Originally Posted by jfried View Post
What else from Boston makes Toronto a better team next year? It's all about what one team needs to part with a player and what one team is in a position to give up to get a player.

Looking at Boston's assets, there isn't much that can help the Leafs beyond roster players and that pick. Meanwhile, Boston could acquire an elite puckmover without having to touch their development system. Considering their depth on the wings. That's a good thing.
You know what will be great, is when Boston is selecting TO's #3 overall pick this year, followed up by a very likely top 5 pick again next year.... oh man does this ever make up for Joe Thornton!

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01-12-2010, 12:06 PM
  #59
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Originally Posted by TheMoose View Post
Way I see it Ponikarovsky is worth more then just a 2nd (given Dominic Moore returned a 2nd last year). That to me helps off-set Kaberle vs tor 1st. Quite honestly throw in whatever else it takes to get back that pick.
Personally, I thought that a 2nd for Moore was overpayment so stand by my thought that Poni is worth a high 2nd.

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01-12-2010, 12:10 PM
  #60
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Originally Posted by grabo84 View Post
Wouldn't moving on mean focusing on the player that you traded for, Phil Kessel, rather than making a bad trade to get the pick back that you traded away?
I would definitely trade a player like Kessel away for a high (say 3-5 - which is where the Toronto choice will probably wind up) first round choice. While there are no guarantees the odds would be in my favour that a better player (than Kessel) would be available at the 3-5 position.

If I'm wrong then I accept responsibility and continue to do my job.

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01-12-2010, 12:13 PM
  #61
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Originally Posted by Andy Dufresne View Post
Kaberle ++ might actually be the best available player + package for the Bruins if they are looking to move the pick to make a run now (and next year as well).

Both teams have plenty of moveable pieces + Burke should be semi-desperate to get that pick back.
One of the reasons why I keep saying that the Leaf pick is not going back to Toronto is because I don't think the Leafs have the resources to make the deal. I don't think they have the players Boston needs.

In saying that, I could Boston sending the Leaf 2nd round choice back for someone like Poni. The trade deadline market may be a lot wilder than I anticipate but this still sounds like a fair deal for both teams.

If I'm Chiarelli I keep the Leaf 1st round choice regardless of where my team seems to be going.

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01-12-2010, 12:14 PM
  #62
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Originally Posted by Mike Jones View Post
I would definitely trade a player like Kessel away for a high (say 3-5 - which is where the Toronto choice will probably wind up) first round choice. While there are no guarantees the odds would be in my favour that a better player (than Kessel) would be available at the 3-5 position.

If I'm wrong then I accept responsibility and continue to do my job.
Now the question is this:

Would you trade (2) two! #3-5 picks with the potential of winning the lottery both years for the #1 pick for Phil Kessel, then also throw in a #33-35 pick on top?

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01-12-2010, 12:16 PM
  #63
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Originally Posted by Live Breathe Hockey View Post
You know what will be great, is when Boston is selecting TO's #3 overall pick this year, followed up by a very likely top 5 pick again next year....
Hopefully TSN focuses a camera right in on Burkie both times.

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01-12-2010, 12:18 PM
  #64
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Originally Posted by Live Breathe Hockey View Post
Now the question is this:

Would you trade (2) two! #3-5 picks with the potential of winning the lottery both years for the #1 pick for Phil Kessel, then also throw in a #33-35 pick on top?
No way. The odds are too bad. I would keep the picks and build my team the old fashioned way. I think it's still doable within the cap world.

The only way I make this trade is I'm the one being offered the three high picks for Kessel.

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01-12-2010, 12:33 PM
  #65
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Originally Posted by Neely06 View Post
Noted. Tough to argue with your stance. It seems pretty counter-productive for Leaf fans to pine over re-acquiring that pick back. That's not to devalue it, as it is still a pretty valuable asset for the Bruins, but for in regards to the Leafs...it's gone.

If I were a Leaf fan, and this has nothing to do with my desire as a B's fan to see them tank, I'd be hoping that Burke become an aggressive seller at the deadline for picks/prospects for the 2010 draft (2011 is already being considered a weak draft as far as I know). Move the UFA's for whatever you can get, play some kids (Hanson, Bozak, etc), and hope that June and July are kind months for loading up on talent.
I think we're on the same page, I grit my teeth every time I hear Leafs fans talking about getting the draft pick back. And I hear it a lot.

So far as it goes, I agree with that plan as well. There really aren't many players on this roster that I badly want Burke to keep, and the ones that I do want him to keep won't be dealt in a million years (Schenn, Kulemin, Kessel, Gustavsson, Komi, Beauch etc.) Everybody else can be dealt at the deadline for all I care, and personally, where the Bruins pick has absolutely no impact on the Leafs so I'm not going to be crying if that causes problems. Sure, this has been a disappointing year, but the core of the team is in place, and I think with smart spending over the summer they could dramatically improve next year.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike Jones View Post
I would definitely trade a player like Kessel away for a high (say 3-5 - which is where the Toronto choice will probably wind up) first round choice. While there are no guarantees the odds would be in my favour that a better player (than Kessel) would be available at the 3-5 position.

If I'm wrong then I accept responsibility and continue to do my job.
I question the wisdom of that. 3-5 is far from a sure thing, and while there's been many good players drafted in that range (including Phil Kessel) there's also been a lot of decent players, and many disappointments (at least for the team that drafted them). Are you really willing to take a huge gamble like that? I'll tell you right now, GMs would not.

2007:

Turris
Hickey
Alzner

2006:

Toews
Backstrom
Kessel

2005:

Johnson
Pouliot
Price

2004:

Barker
Ladd
Wheeler

2003:

Horton
Zherdev
Vanek

2002:

Bouwmeester
Pitkanen
Whitney

2001:

Svitov
Weiss
Chistov


Last edited by grabo84: 01-12-2010 at 12:39 PM.
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01-12-2010, 01:31 PM
  #66
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Originally Posted by grabo84 View Post
I question the wisdom of that. 3-5 is far from a sure thing, and while there's been many good players drafted in that range (including Phil Kessel) there's also been a lot of decent players, and many disappointments (at least for the team that drafted them). Are you really willing to take a huge gamble like that?
You're d**n right I would make the trade if offered a top 5 draft pick for a player like Kessel. I agree that the pick is far from being a sure thing but the odds are good enough for me. And if someone offers me an extra first and second then I am all over it.

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01-12-2010, 02:06 PM
  #67
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Don't see Boston trading it since they think the current team is good enough to compete and their prospect pool is weak.

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01-12-2010, 03:17 PM
  #68
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Originally Posted by Mike Jones View Post
You're d**n right I would make the trade if offered a top 5 draft pick for a player like Kessel. I agree that the pick is far from being a sure thing but the odds are good enough for me. And if someone offers me an extra first and second then I am all over it.
You keep saying that, but if you look through that list very few of those players are clearly better than Kessel, and a fair number are much worse. Your odds aren't that good.

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01-12-2010, 03:23 PM
  #69
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Originally Posted by grabo84 View Post
You keep saying that, but if you look through that list very few of those players are clearly better than Kessel, and a fair number are much worse. Your odds aren't that good.
I'll take them. I think it's a pretty good gamble.

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01-12-2010, 03:27 PM
  #70
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Originally Posted by Mike Jones View Post
I would definitely trade a player like Kessel away for a high (say 3-5 - which is where the Toronto choice will probably wind up) first round choice. While there are no guarantees the odds would be in my favour that a better player (than Kessel) would be available at the 3-5 position. If I'm wrong then I accept responsibility and continue to do my job.
I'd like to see that stat.

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01-12-2010, 03:30 PM
  #71
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Originally Posted by TML4LIFE View Post
I'd like to see that stat.
From my list, 5 people taken in that spot are equal to or better than Kessel (including Kessel himself). 16 are worse than Kessel. The odds aren't in his favour.

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01-12-2010, 03:33 PM
  #72
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Originally Posted by grabo84 View Post
From my list, 5 people taken in that spot are equal to or better than Kessel (including Kessel himself). 16 are worse than Kessel. The odds aren't in his favour.
That was my thought as well. To each their own, but to suggest the odds are in favour to get a player better than Kessel is not true. That was a very good draft class looking back.

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01-12-2010, 03:43 PM
  #73
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Originally Posted by grabo84 View Post
The odds of Toronto finishing outside of the top three are too high, and even if they do get one of the big three, there's no guarantee they ever turn into a player like Kessel.
out of curiosity, how much time has TOR spent outside of the top three (well, bottom three...) and by how much? in all seriousness, yes, anything can happen, and alot of TOR fans keep talking about how they could go a hot streak.... kind of like they did earlier.... and look where they are now? so i'd say its just as good a chance they finish in the bottom three as they do out side of it as of now.

as far as guarantees.

you are right, there is no guarantee whom ever boston picks turns into anything as good as kessel, but then again, theres also the possibility kessel never scores another goal again for TOR.

But i bet you'd be willing to take that risk, wouldnt you?

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01-12-2010, 03:56 PM
  #74
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Originally Posted by grabo84 View Post
From my list, 5 people taken in that spot are equal to or better than Kessel (including Kessel himself). 16 are worse than Kessel. The odds aren't in his favour.
The odds are helped by strong scouting and coaching. They're helped by the presence of an effective development program and this includes comprehensive rookie camps. All of these things help improve the odds.

If I'm a GM going into a draft I make sure everything is in place to make sure those choices have every chance of succeeding.

So yes, I would still make the trade because I would ensure that the odds would be in my favour.

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01-12-2010, 03:57 PM
  #75
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Originally Posted by bb_fan View Post
... but then again, theres also the possibility kessel never scores another goal again for TOR.
Thanks to the instigator rule and touch icing all it takes is one bad move or one stupid, dirty check.

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