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Kevin Lowe: A 4 year review.

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Old
04-21-2004, 11:49 AM
  #26
YKOil
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Digger12
[*]The Weight deal was a major mess all around. Hecht played like he was going through the motions for 1 year and was gone...we got good assets for him, but IMO that should be considered a separate transaction from the Weight trade. Reasoner was supposed to become a top 2 C (I recall Lowe comparing Reasoner to a young Weight at the time of the deal), yet the Oilers were a hair's breadth from losing him for nothing after putting him on waivers. How different would this trade look if THAT had happened? It worked out and Reasoner has rebounded to make something of himself, but I'm worried about that knee. The less said about Horacek the better...he will never play here.

[*]In the first 2 years of Lowe's tenure, the Hamrlik/Brewer deal was considered his 'steal', the one transaction every GM needs to manufacture (or luck into) in order to get his team from pretender to contender. The last 2 years, IMO the shine on this deal has tarnished somewhat. Brewer's growth seems to have stagnated the last couple of seasons, and his offensive potential seems to have been overestimated by Lowe. He's still a good to very good dman who can log big minutes, but I don't look at this deal as a steal anymore...especially with Green's career falling off the rails.
[*]I Love Torres, but Isbister drives me crazy and makes far too much money. In his first 7 NHL seasons he's had ONE year that he managed to play more than 66 games. He'll be 27 next month. Lowe must lie awake at night praying like heck that Isbister doesn't turn into Josh Green Part II.
[*]One thing I'm surprised nobody's mentioned yet is the loss of Marchant.

One the whole, I'd say Lowe's done a decent to good job with the assets at his disposal, but after 4 years I think it's fair to demand better results...

You want to see the difference a steal of a deal makes on a team? Look no further than Kiprusoff and the Flames. Never mind Iginla, he scored 52 goals for them and carried that team every which way in '02 and they still missed the playoffs by a lot that year...without Kipper that team isn't even in the playoffs this year.

Lowe needs to make a deal like this. Lucky or not, it makes all the difference.
Nice reply post Digger - one of the better ones I have seen.

Excellent point made on the 'steal' aspect of trades. There are four things that can make a small market team effective:

- great drafting
- great trading
- great contract / FA strategy
- Lemaire

A team needs a minimum of two of those to be at the B+ range to succeed. Lowe has managed to have:

- good drafting (jury is still out really but I don't recall the team having so many good prospects before)
- average trading
- good contract / FA strategy (this last year's work - Ulanov and Moreau, etc - has really improved his grade)

Not exactly killer management, and while the small market problem does work against him a great GM overcomes that. Lowe needs a LOT more great GM moments if this team is ever meant to go anywhere. IMO it has taken him 4 years just to get to being a decent GM and my hope is that he doesn't slide (this is where the 'Alberta' boy syndrome has me REALLY worried as Lowe is threatening to go the route of Mike Smith and his Ra Ra Rasputin act).

I will always maintain that Lowe was schooled on the Weight trade - having Reisen and Horacek included in that deal is just proof of it. The One Year excuse just doesn't cut it. I will also go so far as to say that I think that Lowe knows it too - and I think it showed in the Comrie deal. Like Pleau & Weight before them, the Murray & Comrie team was trying to bend Lowe over - and Lowe had none of it. Instead of going meekly to the Gimp box he pulled out the samurai sword got dirty. He served notice that the most important thing was that the Oilers get the best return possible - and NOT just some return at all. Lowe learned his lesson from Weight & Pleau well - when push came to shove he called Comrie's & Murray's bluff and we ended up in a better trade overall; but now with Philly.

Anyways - back to Digger's post. The Isbister/Green analogy is quite apt and you score some big points with the Kiprusoff comparison. Sather could make those 'steal' deals while Lowe has yet to prove he can. The closest Lowe has come is, really, the York/Poti deal (Dvo/Carter is still in the jury room for me as I have to see if Carter will bounce back next year) and one of those every four years just doesn't cut it.


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Old
04-21-2004, 12:06 PM
  #27
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As far as judging Lowe goes, I think he has done a good job. I don't think the fact this team has missed the playoffs for 2 of the last 3 years is too much to get worked up over simply because he has been re-tooling this team almost from the moment he took the job and when you change phylosophies and personell as much as he has, you have to expect some regression prior to the climb back up. I figure he has two more seasons in him to prove these peaks and valleys have been worth it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by slats432
but we don't have any Kurris or Gretzkys or Messiers coming down the pipe as far as I can tell. And even if we did, my concern that unless they could be MacTs, they won't develop here. I want an enigmatic scoring machine. I want a guy with such blazing speed and puck skill that it makes you sick. But even if we drafted one, there isn't any indication that this organization can allow for that creative player to be creative.
This is a good point and seeing what Nedved did for the team down the stretch was a good indication of what a good offensive prospect could mean to the team.

Another way to look at it might be that for the stage the team was at in terms of competing, how close the NHL was to reaching a new CBA and Lowe's mandate to getting through '04 with a decent young, cheaper team on the verge, maybe he never intended to have that real sniper before this season.

For example if he would have went out and traded up to draft a stud offensive guy or traded for a young sniper he would have had to give up assets that are of substance and, most importantly would likely have had to deal with contracts that may very well be above the norm come post CBA NHL. He may be hedging that there will be a large FA market where he can pick up a player of that type for cheap and when it comes to drafting he can go after a guy without having to start off at 1 mil + bonuses to get him signed.

Too me, a couple of his more... unfortunate moves, attest to this. Dopita - even if he panned out it would have been couple season stop gap. Oates - again nothing more than a stop gap.

It's just a thought.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Digger12
...Marchant. While I'm not blaming Lowe for this, he still remains one of the few (other than Comrie) players that left the Oilers with less than complimentary words for Lowe...I wish I'd been a fly on the wall and found out what REALLY went on there. We missed him huge on the PK, but that ridiculous salary he made last year makes the loss a bit easier to swallow. Nice one MacLean!
Maybe his parting words are a good indication as to why it was so easy for Lowe to let him go. We see what happens on the ice and in that sense Marchant was a good Oiler but maybe he wasn't a good influence behind closed doors.

Look at Moreau, last summer people would have traded him for a bag of pucks and yet as a real eyebrow raiser Lowe signs him to a long term deal. He obviously knew something about him that didn't necessarily translate on the ice and committed. Then as reward for the vote of confidence we see Moreau emerge as the MVP.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Digger12
You want to see the difference a steal of a deal makes on a team? Look no further than Kiprusoff and the Flames. Never mind Iginla, he scored 52 goals for them and carried that team every which way in '02 and they still missed the playoffs by a lot that year...without Kipper that team isn't even in the playoffs this year.
I'm not intending to take anything away from the Flames but I don't totally buy into this great GM praising that Sutter is getting right now because of Kiprusoff. When he went out and got him it was because of an injury to Turek.

He was trying to fill the gap and picked a guy off the trash heap. In the end it worked out great for the Flames but does Sutter make the same move if Turek doesn't get hurt? I would say no - and for the exact same reason that Lowe never made any goaltending moves until Salo was movable. He had a big contract sitting between the pipes that he couldn't move and if healthy it would have been tough to add another 800K to a position that is already eating up a good chunk of the payroll.

Just my 2 cents.

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Old
04-21-2004, 12:29 PM
  #28
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One thing that we can count on from Lowe is his creativity. The Heritage Classic, the Comrie "pay-as-you-go" scenario, the "trading" of Claude Julien to Montreal for the 5th round pick, and striking a deal with the Roadrunners whereby operational expenses are covered by Lyle Abraham and his group (probably more credit to Patrick LaForge, but no doubt Lowe had his hand in it) are perfect examples of thinking outside the box, and Lowe should be comended for it.

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04-21-2004, 12:37 PM
  #29
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Lowe isn't that bad of a GM, but I still feel the Oilers could stand to do a little better.

One thing not mentioned here is Lowe's reluctance to cut bait with Salo earlier last season, potentially saving the Oilers from many other needless losses that were suffered at the hands of Tommy Salo's ineptitude. This to me has been the biggest mark against Lowe for a while now.

Aside from that, good post. Contracts are still Lowe's biggest problems, whereas trading is probobly his best ability.

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Old
04-21-2004, 12:58 PM
  #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryno
One thing that we can count on from Lowe is his creativity. The Heritage Classic, the Comrie "pay-as-you-go" scenario, the "trading" of Claude Julien to Montreal for the 5th round pick, and striking a deal with the Roadrunners whereby operational expenses are covered by Lyle Abraham and his group (probably more credit to Patrick LaForge, but no doubt Lowe had his hand in it) are perfect examples of thinking outside the box, and Lowe should be comended for it.
Good point Ryno and an excellent thread LT!

I think OI'll say posted that Lowe cares, and that to me is the biggest thing. He cares about the Oilers, he cares about Edmonton and he does honestly care about winning. He's willing to think outside the box in order to win.

As for the deals, the Brewer/Hamrlik deal goes down as a slight win or neutral. He traded a more expensive top two defenseman for a younger, top two defenseman. Green was a disappointment.

I think the biggest steals during Lowe's tenure has been:
1) York for Poti.
2) Carter & Hemsky for Guerin. Remember that he traded one years contract for both of those players. A little more than a year later, Boston who gave up Carter and Hemsky (draft pick) for Guerin, lost him for nothing when BillyG signed as a UFA to Dallas. How sick would that have been if he was still here in Edm?

I agree with another poster that the Weight for Reasoner, Hecht deal has to be considered independant of the Hecht for 2 2nd round picks (Stoll/JDD?). In the former, one years service for Hecht and Reasoner was about to be expected. Hecht underperformed while in Edm, so I would give Lowe a C+ or D- for that trade. At least he got some assets for Weight, Dougie could have left for nothing a year later as a UFA. Riesen for Horacek is a wash. But Hecht for 2 2nd round picks who turn out to be Stollie and JDD? Wow. that's fantastic. Even though Hecht is looking good in Buffalo, sometimes its a change of place which helps - I'm not sure Hecht would have developed the same if he stayed in Edm.

And lastly, sometimes the best deals are the ones you don't make. I like the fact that despite all the expectations that he would do so, Lowe didn't trade Moreau at the start of the season and instead signed him longterm to a very affordable contract. I like the fact that despite the pressure to trade away Brewer who was playing "Brewtal" at the start of the season, Brewer is quietly developing into a solid top defenseman. as in #1 dman now. 23 year old #1 dman? That's pretty rare. I still see him as a younger Adam Foote type player. He just needs a little bit more wasabi for breakfast to get him more snarly.

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Old
04-21-2004, 02:28 PM
  #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lowetide
2/25 in December (guys who were struggling, Kilger, Josh Green)
Not to nit-pick, but for accuracy's sake this should be 3/25 to include the Comrie deal.

That aside, great post as usual LT. I'm very happy about the prospects of the team under Lowe, and curious to see how he'll perform under a new CBA. I get the sense that his management style might be better suited to a different economic climate. As Ryno pointed out, Lowe is extremely creative and given a level playing field, I think he will show himself as one of the better GMs in the league.

One of the differences that I've noticed between him and Sather is the "steal vs. schooled" trading record. He hasn't been schooled in deals like Sather has (see Czerkawski, Satan) but hasn't gotten any clear steals in trades either (Marchant, Salo). I think his overall game is stronger though... he's getting better at contracts, and has a better drafting record than Sather IMO (although Sather drafted Poti, Horcoff and Comrie in his last couple of years which may reflect on Prendergast playing a larger role).

I happen to agree that the Weight deal was a bust for Lowe. However the Hecht deal was maybe the closest thing to a clear-cut steal that Lowe has in his record... therefore when taken together its pretty much a wash. I don't think Weight should've had Lowe at his mercy as much as he did in that situation, and I don't think we can look at it so much as 'what did we ultimately end up with', but 'what other deals could we have had at that time'? At the time, Lowe was hot on Hecht, however there were other great prospects out there that could've been offered up by other teams. Hindsight's always 20/20, but what if Detroit had been offering up Datsyuk, Zetterberg, or Fisher?

Anyway, considering the environment which Lowe operates under, and the circumstances in which he was hired (I don't know if he was really ready at the time), I think Lowe's only improved his game and I think he'll be great for many years to come. There's lots of room for improvement, but I think he'll meet the challenge.

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Old
04-21-2004, 02:40 PM
  #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by YKOil
I have few issues with the current draft regime - though I am still NOT a Mikhnov fan.
Wouldn't Mikhnov be considered one of Sather's picks? I thought he ran that draft even though he had handed in his resignation at that point.

Quote:
Originally Posted by neogeo69
I think the biggest steals during Lowe's tenure has been:
1) York for Poti.
2) Carter & Hemsky for Guerin. Remember that he traded one years contract for both of those players. A little more than a year later, Boston who gave up Carter and Hemsky (draft pick) for Guerin, lost him for nothing when BillyG signed as a UFA to Dallas. How sick would that have been if he was still here in Edm?
Although I agree that the second deal was weighted heavily in Lowe's favour... Boston still was able to draft Shaone Morrison with their(our) pick... who subsequently was used to grab Sergei Gonchar.

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Old
04-21-2004, 06:23 PM
  #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slats432
but we don't have any Kurris or Gretzkys or Messiers coming down the pipe as far as I can tell. And even if we did, my concern that unless they could be MacTs, they won't develop here. I want an enigmatic scoring machine. I want a guy with such blazing speed and puck skill that it makes you sick. But even if we drafted one, there isn't any indication that this organization can allow for that creative player to be creative.
Without getting into this again, that's it in a nutshell. This team's achilles heel may not be GETTING this time of talent, but allowing that talent to develop, warts and all.

excellent point, slats432.

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04-21-2004, 07:28 PM
  #34
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lowetide, call me crazy, but I truly believe if the Oilers had a gamebreaker aka a Superstar, we would be playing for home-ice!

Put it this way, right before Weight left - during and after the Oilers won 9 in a row, including the amazing 2001 playoffs (even though we lost in 6 it was one the Stars were lucky the Oilers lost, and one of the best Oilers series I've ever seen) - it looked like the Oilers were SO close to being actual contenders.

It is pretty similiar to me going into next season. Except we have no Weight or big names. But we did have an amazing streak and going into this season I don't just speculate, I know the Oilers will be way better. Obviously not contenders, but getting closer and closer. Do you know what I'm trying to say?

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Old
04-21-2004, 08:06 PM
  #35
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Didn't see anyone else notice this

and in saying this I don't know what the going wage is for a GM or if an established GM would really want to work in Edm but at the time of Slats leaving I was glad he was going because he was living on laurels and he was eating too much money from the budget

But I was also wondering if it wouldn't be better to have a guy with some kind of player evaluation background. And I know the first thing someone could say is that Button was Gainey's right hand man in Dal and hiring the young exec type didn't help out Cgy much

But at that time I was just sick of the old boys system in Edm and here was a new GM being hired in the same manner. And those things continue to this day and as you can see the Oilers are successful because of it as is reflected in all their playoff trips and then forays into the second round

the weight trade was a hard hill to climb right off the bat. hard to believe that with Khavnov, Salvador and Jackman in the org all Lowe coudl get was Horacheck

that's pretty sad

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04-21-2004, 08:27 PM
  #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Matts
the weight trade was a hard hill to climb right off the bat. hard to believe that with Khavnov, Salvador and Jackman in the org all Lowe coudl get was Horacheck

that's pretty sad
Well, with the Roenick deal having been done I think it changed what it would take to get Weight signed in Edmonton. He was at 4.3, and I think they were going to offer somewhere over 5 (this is from memory) but when Roenick's deal came out it changed it.

Having said that, many have suggested Lowe should have waited to the deadline, and that has merit too.

btw, did anyone see Horacek before he started getting hurt? Was he any good at all, or just a body?

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04-21-2004, 08:34 PM
  #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Matts
the weight trade was a hard hill to climb right off the bat. hard to believe that with Khavnov, Salvador and Jackman in the org all Lowe coudl get was Horacheck
that's pretty sad
I can only assume that you are unaware that a) Weight said he would only sign with one of two teams, b) every GM in the league knew that Lowe couldn't afford to sign Weight, and c) even guys like Milbury understood the market had changed when Roenick signed with the Flyers. This is why Lowe got the return he did-the chief assets were Reasoner and Hecht, to replace Weight's offense, not predicting future Calder winners on defense.

This whole Myth of The Weight Trade is getting really silly. Let it go, it's done.

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Old
04-21-2004, 08:39 PM
  #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lowetide
Well, with the Roenick deal having been done I think it changed what it would take to get Weight signed in Edmonton. He was at 4.3, and I think they were going to offer somewhere over 5 (this is from memory) but when Roenick's deal came out it changed it.

Having said that, many have suggested Lowe should have waited to the deadline, and that has merit too.

btw, did anyone see Horacek before he started getting hurt? Was he any good at all, or just a body?
Doug Weight was traded in the summer. July 1st if memory serves me correctly. He was a RFA....

Anyways, to wait and trade him at the next deadline meant the Oilers lose their best player and top scorer for the 2/3 of the season with no one else taking his place. As well there is no guarantee that the offer would get better since it was widely known that Weight had a list of teams he would ONLY go to and a huge whopping price tag.

To trade him at the previous deadline meant the Oiler possibly missing the playoffs and losing out on the money and going under.

Lowe was damned if he did and damned if he didn't. Sucked for the Oilers. Hence his hardball tactics versus his next RFA, Mr. Team list guy...IMO

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04-21-2004, 08:48 PM
  #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HOZ
Doug Weight was traded in the summer. July 1st if memory serves me correctly. He was a RFA....

Anyways, to wait and trade him at the next deadline meant the Oilers lose their best player and top scorer for the 2/3 of the season with no one else taking his place. As well there is no guarantee that the offer would get better since it was widely known that Weight had a list of teams he would ONLY go to and a huge whopping price tag.

To trade him at the previous deadline meant the Oiler possibly missing the playoffs and losing out on the money and going under.

Lowe was damned if he did and damned if he didn't. Sucked for the Oilers. Hence his hardball tactics versus his next RFA, Mr. Team list guy...IMO
Yeah, I know he was traded July 1, I was in Medicine Hat losing golf balls left, left and further left that weeked.

Anyway, what I meant was that many here suggested it would have been better to wait to trade Weight until the deadline. Bohologo just posted (correctly) that Weight had told them he would go only to Detroit or St. Loo, and that reduced the options alot. If only the Blues hadn't loaded up the truck to the prospect barn to get Tkachuk....

Anyway, my feeling on the deal hasn't changed. Sorry to see him go, but Jochen Hecht was (and is) a very good hockey player and Marty Reasoner had shown some ability in the past. He has certainly delivered 100 cents on the dollar.

I was hoping for Horacek too, but he got bogged down with injuries.

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Old
04-22-2004, 12:39 AM
  #40
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Piffle...

...Lowe should have called the table - simple as that. I, for one, believe that Weight or Pleau would have eventually buckled. You ALWAYS call the bluff.

The sad part is that Lowe didn't even try.


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Old
04-22-2004, 12:46 AM
  #41
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No I was totally aware

that there was only two teams he said he'd go to but I was a guy back then who wanted him dealt at the '01 deadline if the Oilers knew they had no chance to re-sign him. Weight was certainly more important than Janne or Carter but I would've felt the same way about Weight being dealt at that time as I did over those two deals: ie if you think guys are too expensive and you can't bring them back then you make the trades.

I know some guys flipped in '03 when those two were dealt but I didn't because the Oilers had a playoff spot locked in anyway. If the Oilers dealt off Weight at deadline day in '01 and explained look we had to get the most for an asset that wouldn't be here past April, then people would've understood because this wouldn't be an actual cup contender trading away their No.1 centre. Most people here are guilty of the wait until next year thing and cut Lowe too much slack because of it but here's a time where I would've agreed with them because the team with Weight had no chance past the second round so if you could get something for him like the Yotes did at the same time for Tkachuk, then bring it on.

This isn't hindsight from me, this is what I was saying back then when it was pretty apparent Weight wasn't coming back.

as for the return, I'm not saying Jackman had to be the dman. I'm saying the Oilers got the bottom of the barrell when it came to Blues defenseman prospects. and while I like Reasoner as much as the next guy unless he puts up 50+ points we can argue about just how replaceable he could be or he was when Stoll was playing so well this year.

it's too bad this was Lowe's first huge move. it would be interesting to see how he'd handle it now

maybe he'd pick a fight with Weight in the press and then deal him off to address an area we already had prospects in

no wait that was Comrie

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Old
04-22-2004, 12:52 AM
  #42
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Jochen Hecht quietly had a pretty decent season with the Sabres.. he ended up with 15 goals, 37 assists and 52 points in only 64 games. That averages out to about 67 points in a full 82 game season. I started to notice his play right at the end of the season where he had a few monster games. He finished the season with 20 points in 14 games including a couple 4 point games and a couple 3 point games. It's too bad he didn't work out for us because I still think he can be a pretty good player.

On the Weight trade, it's really too bad we didn't get a deal done before they brought over Tkachuk. Think of the holes we could fill in our lineup with Michal Handzus (big centerman), Ladislav Nagy (skilled winger with goalscoring touch), Jeff Taffe and a first round pick that could have turned into Hannu Toivonen, Trevor Daley, Matt Stajan or Kirill Koltsov. Woulda, coulda, shoulda..

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04-22-2004, 01:19 AM
  #43
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Get me Gaborik without giving up Hemsky and I will be satisfied Lowe..........that is all.


Well there's lots of other guys, but it seemed like the thing to say at the time.

Yes I expect miracles out of my GM.

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Old
04-22-2004, 01:31 AM
  #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Matts
as for the return, I'm not saying Jackman had to be the dman. I'm saying the Oilers got the bottom of the barrell when it came to Blues defenseman prospects. and while I like Reasoner as much as the next guy unless he puts up 50+ points we can argue about just how replaceable he could be or he was when Stoll was playing so well this year.

it's too bad this was Lowe's first huge move. it would be interesting to see how he'd handle it now
Agreed - I think if someone tried that with Lowe today, Lowe would hand the guy's ass back to him on the end of a stick. I said it at the time of the Comrie trade - the BEST thing about that whole dust-up is that Lowe served notice that he was no longer anyone's *****. I honestly can't see anyone trying to play hardball with Lowe again.

Guys may demand a trade, sure - but they won't be trying to rig the trade like Weight and Comrie did. Kudo's to Lowe on that.


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Old
04-22-2004, 08:59 AM
  #45
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There is a huge difference between Comrie and Weight.

Firstly, if you are any kind of a sane General Manager, would you even think about trading anything substantial for a guy who in a couple of months will be a UFA? Bobby Clarke is the only guy who I have seen that will do that.

According to everything and everyone, Weight would only agree to a deal with 2 teams... Detroit and St. Louis. Now, if Lowe waits until the deadline, and the pickings are completely bare, then what do you say?

It's unfortunate that Hecht from day one didn't want to be in Edmonton. I mean he proved this season what he can do when he actually cares. Would we really be complaining about the deal if we had the two-way winger who put up Ryan Smyth like numbers?

Reasoner is a bit of an enigma. Anytime he got a sniff of opportunity in St. Louis he would produce. The hopes were that Reasoner would be a 2nd line centre immediately.... well that didn't really happen, but his play this season was starting to change the opinion on that. I mean Hecht and Reasoner was a very good return for Weight.... at least it should have been. Unfortunately Reasoner has taken a little bit longer than originally expected, and Hecht never did much of anything on a regular basis here in Edmonton, but when he has been healthy, he has brought to the Sabres everything the Oilers were probably expecting out of him.

Horacek was a bit of a gamble, but the guy has great size, loves to play physical and is only 25. I wonder where he would have been if he didn't get hurt his first year and Edmonton didn't share the farm team with Montreal last year. Those 2 years really hurt his development. He's a lot like Igor Ulanov in the way he plays...

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04-22-2004, 09:46 AM
  #46
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Originally Posted by Matts
it's too bad this was Lowe's first huge move. it would be interesting to see how he'd handle it now

It wasn't his first big move. The Hamrlik/Brewer trade came before the Weight deal. So did the Guerin/Carter deal.

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04-22-2004, 12:03 PM
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It wasn't his first big move. The Hamrlik/Brewer trade came before the Weight deal. So did the Guerin/Carter deal.
True enough - but this was the first one that Lowe had to make under duress. The Hamrlik trade came as a surprise to everyone while the Guerin trade was one that most people thought would be made BUT not with a gun pointed at Lowe's head. THAT is what made the Weight trade the first true test of Lowe's mettle as a GM - one where he blinked first.

Please note that I am not trying to denigrate Lowe's ability as a GM - I think that he has come a loooong way from where he first started - however I do believe in calling it like I see it and so I do not give him a free pass on:

- the Weight trade,
- Brown trade
- Dvo & Niinimaa (especially Niinimaa) trade
- etc.

And while I note the luck involved (and make no mistake about it - it was luck) with the performances of Bergeron and Ulanov I thought both moves were worth the risk - just as I thought Oates was worth the risk (though I preferred Ronning) and so I do not slam Lowe for signing Oates.

You will also note that I give him full props on the Comrie deal and I even go so far as to come up with a plausible scenario for why he didn't get Pitkanen (given that he could have EASILY offered better than what Clarke did).

As for the value of players soon to be UFA - look no further than:

- Bourque & Andreychuk FOR Rolston, Grenier, Pahlsson and Boston's choice of a 1st in either 2000 or 2001.

- Blake & Reinprecht (rookie) FOR Deadmarsh, Miller, 1st in 2001, a prospect to be determined (Aulin) and future considerations.

- Smolinski FOR Gleason

When LA can get a prospect like Gleason for a useless UFA like Smolinski I have to question a trade like the Weight one. It was, quite simply, a bad trade. It was a bad trade because Lowe never put himself in a position to make a better one - a situation he rectified, imo, when Comrie tried the same power play a few years later.


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04-22-2004, 12:19 PM
  #48
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Originally Posted by YKOil
As for the value of players soon to be UFA - look no further than:

- Bourque & Andreychuk FOR Rolston, Grenier, Pahlsson and Boston's choice of a 1st in either 2000 or 2001.

- Blake & Reinprecht (rookie) FOR Deadmarsh, Miller, 1st in 2001, a prospect to be determined (Aulin) and future considerations.

- Smolinski FOR Gleason
These are simply not analagous trades. None of the principals being dealt handcuffed their GMs by articulating their intention to sign with a limited number of teams. The person to blame for the underwhelming return on the Weight trade is not Kevin Lowe, but Doug Weight. This is the key difference you need to factor into your analysis.

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04-22-2004, 12:35 PM
  #49
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Originally Posted by YKOil
When LA can get a prospect like Gleason for a useless UFA like Smolinski I have to question a trade like the Weight one. It was, quite simply, a bad trade. It was a bad trade because Lowe never put himself in a position to make a better one - a situation he rectified, imo, when Comrie tried the same power play a few years later.
Boho - please read my entire post next time. Of course I factored Weight's stance into my analysis - the point was that Lowe did nothing substantial to counter it. He allowed Weight to dictate to him rather than the other way around.


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04-22-2004, 12:47 PM
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Originally Posted by YKOil
Lowe did nothing substantial to counter it. He allowed Weight to dictate to him rather than the other way around.
This point seems to be conjecture. All we saw was the end result of the negotiations with Weight, not the process. Assuming you are not one of the parties in question, that is. Even if Lowe had wanted to force the issue by trading Weight to Carolina (for example), why would Rutherford have made the deal, given Weight's impending UFA and stated preference for only two teams?

This notion that Lowe immediately rolled over to bite pillow is complete speculation in lieu of concrete evidence to the contrary.

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