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We could be in trouble with all of our RFA's next season

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Old
01-15-2010, 01:31 AM
  #1
thadd
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We could be in trouble with all of our RFA's next season

I think we're getting 4.95M in cap space from Comrie, Pisani, Strudwick and Arsene(??) going UFA next year.

If we let grabs walk, that'll be another 3.15M in space.

So now we've got 8.1M in space.

Chorney stays up full time. Now we've got 7.159M in cap space.

Gagner will get 3M per year... correct? I think it's a bit much for what he's done, but nobody can deny his skill.

Now we've got 5.78MM in cap space.

Cogliano will command 2-2.5M per year. Let's say 2.5M. Now we've got 4.41M in cap space.

We resign Brule to 1.5M per year. Now we've got 3.71M

We resign JDD to I dono... 1M? 1.5M? Let's go with 1M. Now we've got 3.34M

Still got Stone, JFJ, Potulny and Pouliot to worry about, as well. Hardly enough to hunting for a UFA.

After next season O'Sullivan, Moureau, Nilson and Staios come off the books. That's a massive 9.62M in space.

So if we wanted to... we could fit Eberle onto our roster next year... but what's the point if we don't have the ability to ensure that he's got competent line-mates?

I'd seriously resign Comrie for the same price and look at resigning JFJ and Potulny.

Unless get lucky making a deal that gets rid of a hefty contract to free up some cap space, I can't imagine us being a very competitive team next with with or without Eberle.

Penner-Gagner-Hemsky
Brule(Can play both wings)-Comrie-Eberle
Cogliano-Horcoff-O'Sullivan
JFJ/Moreau-Poltuny/Pouliot-Stortini/Nilson

Lubo-Smid
Souray-Gilbert
Chorney-Staios
Peckham

Boo-Lin-Wall
JDD

I really don't think we should put Eberle in that line-up.

Penner-Gagner-Hemsky
JFJ-Comrie-Brule
Cogliano-Horcoff-O'Sullivan
Moreau-Pouliot/Poltuny-Nilson/Stortini

Very messy. But I think it's better for Eberle's career.

Thoughts?

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01-15-2010, 01:34 AM
  #2
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I think it is fairly simple, the Oilers need to move some guys, even if it is just for 3rd, 4th or 5th round picks.

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01-15-2010, 01:35 AM
  #3
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Thoughts is that we'll experience the rebuild for more than 1 year. And when I finally graduate and have the personal resources to afford season tickets, they'll be readily available.

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Old
01-15-2010, 01:43 AM
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In general it doesn't really help to talk about the guys with near-minimum contracts, since we have to replace their roster spots with someone, who in turn must make at least league minimum.

We're royally screwed if we don't get rid of some of Horcoff, Moreau, Staios, Souray, Visnovsky and Gilbert. Letting Grebeshkov go would be a mistake but only if he asks for crazy money (and he just might based on the precedent set before him).

Simply put, anyone over 27 should be on the short list.

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01-15-2010, 01:44 AM
  #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thadd View Post
Still got Stone, JFJ, Potulny and Pouliot to worry about, as well. Hardly enough to hunting for a UFA.
Well for starters you can cross the bolded section off your list. Pouliot isn't really worth "worrying about".

A guy like Cogliano, given the season he's having, could quite possibly be retained on a cheap one year "bridge contract", if necessary. The same could hold true for the other guys you mention. Stone/JFJ/Potulny are decent players, but they're not likely going to be offer sheet targets, so retain them on shorter term deals keeping the $ cost down if that's what you want to do.

One of the benefits of being a crappy team is that your players are not exactly in high demand, and don't have a ton of negotiating leverage. Of course the question becomes, do you really want to retain all the players that got you there.

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01-15-2010, 01:45 AM
  #6
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It's actually a pretty simple fix.

Move, demote or buyout the Moreau and Staios contracts (preferably in that order), move O'Sullivan and Cogliano, deal Souray and offer value contracts to Potulny, JF Jacques and Stone. Look to resign Gagner and Brule to serious deals.

Problem solved with $5+ million in cap space left. That's when you look at value deals like the Dominic Moore signing in Florida, Blair Betts signing in Philadelphia and Manny Malholtra signing in San Jose to replace the overpaid veterans you shipped out.

Two problems much improved: Cap issues and cycling in fresh veteran talent as opposed to the stagnant group we have now.

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01-15-2010, 01:55 AM
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this is frustrating

there is a reason why I have been saying we need to toss a 4mill dollar contract under the bus--there is a reason why Cogliano's name keeps coming up in trade talks

the oilers are in cap hell for atleast 3 more seasons--this is nothing new

The Oilers better pray to whatever god they believe in the cap does not go down--if it does--they could be in trouble

with 21mill tied up on the d-line that is where they need to trip and if they can not trim there--ask fat boy stauffet the three teams that say they have interest in Penner--some may not like it--but one of the 4 mill buck players needs to move one way or another to free up money the oilers will need elsewhere in the roster over the next few years

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01-15-2010, 01:55 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thadd View Post

Gagner will get 3M per year... correct? I think it's a bit much for what he's done, but nobody can deny his skill.

Now we've got 5.78MM in cap space.

Cogliano will command 2-2.5M per year.
Gagner is a RFA - he has 9 goals - the season is 1/2 over..... He gets $2 million maximum... With Eberle & Omark in the system, Gagner must earn a $3 million contract...

Cogliano is a RFA - he has 6 goals.... How is that worth $2 million per season..........

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01-15-2010, 02:02 AM
  #9
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It could be a problem if the Oilers manage to get Hall or Seguin or Fowler and want to play them (I don't think you draft a Hall or Seguin and let him sit in the CHL another year). That's another 3.4-ish million cap hit...

But I think they can move quite a few players at the deadline... might not get much, or might have to package them with some pick, but I think everyone outside of Khabi and Horcoff could be moved.

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01-15-2010, 02:08 AM
  #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Real_Estate-Agent View Post
Gagner is a RFA - he has 9 goals - the season is 1/2 over..... He gets $2 million maximum... With Eberle & Omark in the system, Gagner must earn a $3 million contract...

Cogliano is a RFA - he has 6 goals.... How is that worth $2 million per season..........
Cogs may not score, but he's still been effective.

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01-15-2010, 02:10 AM
  #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SK13 View Post
It's actually a pretty simple fix.

Move, demote or buyout the Moreau and Staios contracts (preferably in that order), move O'Sullivan and Cogliano, deal Souray and offer value contracts to Potulny, JF Jacques and Stone. Look to resign Gagner and Brule to serious deals.

Problem solved with $5+ million in cap space left. That's when you look at value deals like the Dominic Moore signing in Florida, Blair Betts signing in Philadelphia and Manny Malholtra signing in San Jose to replace the overpaid veterans you shipped out.

Two problems much improved: Cap issues and cycling in fresh veteran talent as opposed to the stagnant group we have now.
Moreau and Staois have only 1 year after this left and the players that replace them may make the same money

who takes POS off the oilers hands without sending a contact back. The teams that want Souray are by the cap themselves(not teams that could use him but WANT him--there is a difference)--Cogs is in trade rumours for a reason.

Sorry--only in NHL2010 video game is there a simple solution.

The day the oiler bury a contract in the farm is the official day you will never have to worry about signing a UFA--they wont come here for fear that is how the team will handle them if this go wrong.

To free up the money long term--atleast one of the players making 4mill+ needs to go

moving around the contracts of the guys on the 3rd line is very--both gagner and Brule will try for 2mil a year contract in the off season--Gagner may get close to it and Brule may get 1.5

There are a few dead weight guys around that could be a quick stop gap in moving them t free money up short term--Nilsson is signed for 2million next year--it is not a lot--but when he wants to play he can be a top 6 player--show case him and figure out what player on the d-line has the most marketable value--Souray, Lubor or Gilberrt and move them with taking no money back and this will be the tough pill to swallow--giving a good player away to free up money long term

in after 2 more seasons hemsky, Souray and Penner's contacts come off and unless the oilers are idiots and give more horrible contracts out--they will finally have wiggle room under the cap

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Old
01-15-2010, 02:13 AM
  #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thadd View Post

Cogs may not score, but he's still been effective.
I like both Cogliano & Gagner - but I believe there are NO teams in the NHL that would offer them more than $1.5 million per season..

So why should we outbid ourselves..........

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01-15-2010, 02:27 AM
  #13
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Sell, sell, sell.

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01-15-2010, 02:35 AM
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I think we need to wait tell the dead line before we see how much of an issue it is going to be. We might find that its not an issue at all. Were going to be in sell mode and there is more then just high priced vets for sale. There is also a few smaller forwards that are going to be on the market as well that have more value to teams that can use a smaller forward with skill. If I had to predict five guys that might be gone by the deadline they would be....

Souray 5.5
Moreau 2
Nilsson 2
Cogliano 1.1
O'sullivan 2.9

Thats 13.5 mill gone even before the offseason. Of course we would probably take a few bodies back in the trades but much like my prediction we do not how much of an issue it really is going to be by the summer if at all.

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01-15-2010, 02:41 AM
  #15
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If anyone thinks that Gagner or Cogliano deserve 2million+ I think your out of your mind. Gagner and Cogliano(if not shipped out) will sign anywhere from 1-1.5 million max on 1 or 2 year deals IMO

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Old
01-15-2010, 02:55 AM
  #16
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Sweet Jesus, re-signing all those guys? How many number one picks do you want?

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Sell, sell, sell.
Ah, the infamous; buy high, sell low(e) strategy, GENIUS! No one would ever see it coming!

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Old
01-15-2010, 03:04 AM
  #17
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Sam Gagner

Age: 20/21
Drafted: 6th overall '07
2009-10: 44 GP, 9-17-26
09-10 Pj: 81 GP, 17-31-48
Career PPG: 0.58 PPG

Recent similar RFA contracts:

-Derick Brassard, Sep. '09 (four years, $12.8M). Age 21 at time of signing. Drafted sixth overall 2006. First two seasons combined: 48 GP, 11-16-27.


Andrew Cogliano

Age: 22/23
Drafted: 25th, 2005
2009-10: 45 GP, 4-6-10
09-10 Pj: 82 GP, 7-11-18
Career PPG: 0.45 PPG

Recent similar RFA contracts:

-Patrick Eaves, June '08 (3 yrs/$4.2M). Age 24 at time of signing. Drafted 29th 2003. 0.52 career PPG at that point.


Gilbert Brule

Age: 22/23
Drafted: 6th 2005
2009-10: 41 GP, 11-13-24
09-10 Pj: 78 GP, 21-25-46
Career PPG: 0.30 PPG

Recent similar RFA contracts:

Andrew Ladd, June '08 (2 yrs/$3.1M). Age 22 at time of signing. Former fourth overall pick in '04 scored 50 points in 137 GP (0.37 PPG) prior to being traded to Chicago where he scored 12 points in 20 games (0.6 PPG).

...

I can't see Gagner straying too far from what Brassard got ($3.2M cap hit) and Cogliano's agent would have to do a lot to prove his client is a whole lot better than Eaves at the same age. We'll say three years, $1.5M cap hit.

Brule is the wild-card. Wheeler makes $2.825M and netted 21-24-45 at the same age. If I were his agent that's the comp I'd use. Let's settle somewhere in the middle- $2.5M.

Penner-Horcoff-Hemsky
O'Sullivan-Gagner-Brule
Nilsson-Cogliano-X
Moreau-X-Stortini
X,X

Smid-Visnovsky
Souray-Gilbert
Staios-Chorney
X

Khabibulan
X

= $4.623M to fill six spots ($0.77M per). Doable? So long as none of our press box guys make more than $550K- and I'd bet O'Marra, McDonald and Arsene would all take that on a one-way- that leaves 2.97M to fill three spots. Does Jacques have a role on this club next year? How about Stone? Potulny? Lots of options, none of which should break the bank.

Goal is actually the easiest one to solve. Tell JDD and Dubnyk that the first to sign gets $950K and the other gets to go back to Springfield and I bet they kill each other for the pen.

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Old
01-15-2010, 03:21 AM
  #18
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oilers better get rid of these contracts..

no one is going to touch horcoff, so no point including him

souray, staois, moreau, oilers will keep pisani for season and he will either resign cheap with oilers, new team or retire...

keep visnovsky imo, re-sign grebeshkov or move him....

cogliano we better move, we don't need him especially next season, we both mps/eberle and possibly a top 3 pick if we do select top 3 could be on roster or not.

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Old
01-15-2010, 05:14 AM
  #19
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For next season, I'd be tempted to trim to something like this:

Penner-Horcoff-Hemsky
MPS-Gagner-Brule
Jacques-Hall-Eberle
Stone-Potulny-Stortini
Cogliano

Vishnovsky - Smid
XXXX - XXXX
Motin - Grebeshkov
Peckham

Khabibulin
Halak-potentially

Souray (not part of future plan), Gilbert (too soft), O'Sullivan (see Gilbert), Moreau, Pisani, Staios, Pouliot, Nilsson (see Gilbert)

traded in 2-1 deals to meet the following needs:
  1. 2 big, young, hard-nosed defenseman (young players or prospects who are ready to step in);
  2. 2 big, young, rugged, durable forwards (prospects), a centreman and winger
  3. potentially a talented, young goaltender

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Old
01-15-2010, 05:52 AM
  #20
Fourier
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thadd View Post
Cogs may not score, but he's still been effective.
But effective should not get you $2-2.5M. As of right now Cogs is a versatile 3rd-4th line player. If you look at the last off season many of these guys did not get contracts. Cogs has youth and potential on his side, but based on his current role he has very little bargaining power. Compare him with a guy like Curtis Glencross. Does he do more? Glencross makes $1.2M.

At his current pace Gagner ends up with 16 goals and 47 points. Nothing wrong with this for a 20 year old. But he has yet to take the next step. Until he does if the Oilers give Gagner $3M I think it will be a big mistake. $2-2.5M should be tops or the problems they have right now will simply be compounded.

At one point I could have seen Brule's number been $2-2+M as well. But he has clearly cooled off. My guess woul be $1.5-2M.

If Grebs resigns, it will likely be at his current salary, since the Oilers would almost certainly qualify him.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Bugg View Post
Sam Gagner

Age: 20/21
Drafted: 6th overall '07
2009-10: 44 GP, 9-17-26
09-10 Pj: 81 GP, 17-31-48
Career PPG: 0.58 PPG

Recent similar RFA contracts:

-Derick Brassard, Sep. '09 (four years, $12.8M). Age 21 at time of signing. Drafted sixth overall 2006. First two seasons combined: 48 GP, 11-16-27.


Andrew Cogliano

Age: 22/23
Drafted: 25th, 2005
2009-10: 45 GP, 4-6-10
09-10 Pj: 82 GP, 7-11-18
Career PPG: 0.45 PPG

Recent similar RFA contracts:

-Patrick Eaves, June '08 (3 yrs/$4.2M). Age 24 at time of signing. Drafted 29th 2003. 0.52 career PPG at that point.


Gilbert Brule

Age: 22/23
Drafted: 6th 2005
2009-10: 41 GP, 11-13-24
09-10 Pj: 78 GP, 21-25-46
Career PPG: 0.30 PPG

Recent similar RFA contracts:

Andrew Ladd, June '08 (2 yrs/$3.1M). Age 22 at time of signing. Former fourth overall pick in '04 scored 50 points in 137 GP (0.37 PPG) prior to being traded to Chicago where he scored 12 points in 20 games (0.6 PPG).

...

I can't see Gagner straying too far from what Brassard got ($3.2M cap hit) and Cogliano's agent would have to do a lot to prove his client is a whole lot better than Eaves at the same age. We'll say three years, $1.5M cap hit.

Brule is the wild-card. Wheeler makes $2.825M and netted 21-24-45 at the same age. If I were his agent that's the comp I'd use. Let's settle somewhere in the middle- $2.5M.

Penner-Horcoff-Hemsky
O'Sullivan-Gagner-Brule
Nilsson-Cogliano-X
Moreau-X-Stortini
X,X

Smid-Visnovsky
Souray-Gilbert
Staios-Chorney
X

Khabibulan
X

= $4.623M to fill six spots ($0.77M per). Doable? So long as none of our press box guys make more than $550K- and I'd bet O'Marra, McDonald and Arsene would all take that on a one-way- that leaves 2.97M to fill three spots. Does Jacques have a role on this club next year? How about Stone? Potulny? Lots of options, none of which should break the bank.

Goal is actually the easiest one to solve. Tell JDD and Dubnyk that the first to sign gets $950K and the other gets to go back to Springfield and I bet they kill each other for the pen.
Interesting comparisons Bugg. But I would be cautious on the Brassard deal. The Brassard signing was following a season where Columbus appeared to take the next step and one in which Brassard before being injured was on pace for about 27 goals and 66 points. You are also taking about a team that had a ton of cap space. All of these give a perfect storm for a potentially bigger than expected cap hit. Moreover, we are one more year into the new reality where you don't automatically quadruple your salary because you show a little potential.

The Eaves contract was an interesting choice. It is worth noting that the deal he signed got bought out and he is now earning $500K.


Last edited by Fourier: 01-15-2010 at 06:03 AM.
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Old
01-15-2010, 06:09 AM
  #21
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Quote:
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Cogs may not score, but he's still been effective.
Not $2 million effective.

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Old
01-15-2010, 07:10 AM
  #22
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I'll give you a hint, they won't be "hunting for UFAs"

Crisis Averted.

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01-15-2010, 08:09 AM
  #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by surshot View Post
I think we need to wait tell the dead line before we see how much of an issue it is going to be. We might find that its not an issue at all. Were going to be in sell mode and there is more then just high priced vets for sale. There is also a few smaller forwards that are going to be on the market as well that have more value to teams that can use a smaller forward with skill. If I had to predict five guys that might be gone by the deadline they would be....

Souray 5.5
Moreau 2
Nilsson 2
Cogliano 1.1
O'sullivan 2.9

Thats 13.5 mill gone even before the offseason. Of course we would probably take a few bodies back in the trades but much like my prediction we do not how much of an issue it really is going to be by the summer if at all.
I think Staios is gone as well by deadline.

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Old
01-15-2010, 08:18 AM
  #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thadd View Post
Cogs may not score, but he's still been effective.
He's been an effective bottom 6 forward. Aren't we in cap trouble because we've been giving players in this type of role 2-2.5M deals? If Cogliano is worth that kind of money then we shouldn't be complaining about Pisani's contract as it's probably market value. I bet he gets 1.5-2M. I wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't Tambellini and the Oilers that gave him that contract though.

I could also see Gagner and Brule get identical contracts. Anything over 3M is too much.

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Old
01-15-2010, 08:24 AM
  #25
myteammytown
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Real_Estate-Agent View Post
Gagner is a RFA - he has 9 goals - the season is 1/2 over..... He gets $2 million maximum... With Eberle & Omark in the system, Gagner must earn a $3 million contract...

Cogliano is a RFA - he has 6 goals.... How is that worth $2 million per season..........

want to bet?

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