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We could be in trouble with all of our RFA's next season

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Old
01-15-2010, 03:20 PM
  #76
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I'm pretty surprised with this article as TSN is usually pretty bang on with this sort of thing. It would be a different story completely if we were trying to contend and needed to add pieces for next season but that's simply not the case for this summer. As of right now, this team has two anchor contracts: Horcoff and Khabibulin. Barring an absolute miracle, both of these guys will be wearing an Oiler jersey next October. One of these is on Lowe and the other is on Tambellini.

Fortunately after those two I really think every other player/contract is movable. Thanks to Penner's breakout season he's pretty clearly now worth his 4.2 million which means he and Hemmer are the only long-term contracts up front other than Horcoff. On the blueline is where we could run into some trouble. Lots of people wanted Tambo to move one of Grebs/Gilbert last summer because of their similarities, their value was at an all time high and the fact that Smid was ready for top four minutes. Of course, this never happened and now they have seen their trade values take a substantial hit. Visnovsky and Souray are top pairing defensemen making top pairing money and are more than movable if that's the route the Oiler brass look to take.

I'm obviously in the minority with this but I really think Lowe's work gets underrated while Tambellini is being given too much slack. Sure Lowe has made some awful moves, the most notable of which is the Horcoff signing but he has also made some gems. He built that 06 team the way a team is supposed to be built to make a run in the playoffs, with depth, talent and incredible grit at all positions. I really think that might be the grittiest team of the past decade in the entire NHL. Because of a few bad breaks (Pronger and Peca wanting out) and for whatever other reasons we lost a ton of that grit and Lowe decided to go with more of a skilled, small team.

As for Tambellini, as far as I'm concerned right now he's batting 0-for as Oilers General Manager. I don't count the drafting of MPS as a move because it was basically a gift that he was available at 10. The only move I liked at the time he made was at last year's deadline when he parlayed a soon to be UFA Cole into O'Sullivan and Kotalik. As it turns out, I'm really not sure if I'd redo that trade or not. As bad as his moves have been to this point, I'm equally baffled by what he hasn't done. It was a fantastic summer to have the fundamental needs that the Oilers had last year. There were a ton of solid checking centers available via UFA and instead of signing one of the dozen or so guys he elected to deal our most dependable bottom six center for scraps. We also needed a goalie and many wanted a younger guy that fit into the age bracket of the key players on this team. Instead we signed a guy already way over the hill to a contract that would take him to the age of 40. It's easy to hate Lowe but the truth Tambo hasn't made a single positive move for this hockey club in the time he's been in charge.

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01-15-2010, 03:30 PM
  #77
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lessy View Post
I'm pretty surprised with this article as TSN is usually pretty bang on with this sort of thing. It would be a different story completely if we were trying to contend and needed to add pieces for next season but that's simply not the case for this summer. As of right now, this team has two anchor contracts: Horcoff and Khabibulin. Barring an absolute miracle, both of these guys will be wearing an Oiler jersey next October. One of these is on Lowe and the other is on Tambellini.

Fortunately after those two I really think every other player/contract is movable. Thanks to Penner's breakout season he's pretty clearly now worth his 4.2 million which means he and Hemmer are the only long-term contracts up front other than Horcoff. On the blueline is where we could run into some trouble. Lots of people wanted Tambo to move one of Grebs/Gilbert last summer because of their similarities, their value was at an all time high and the fact that Smid was ready for top four minutes. Of course, this never happened and now they have seen their trade values take a substantial hit. Visnovsky and Souray are top pairing defensemen making top pairing money and are more than movable if that's the route the Oiler brass look to take.

I'm obviously in the minority with this but I really think Lowe's work gets underrated while Tambellini is being given too much slack. Sure Lowe has made some awful moves, the most notable of which is the Horcoff signing but he has also made some gems. He built that 06 team the way a team is supposed to be built to make a run in the playoffs, with depth, talent and incredible grit at all positions. I really think that might be the grittiest team of the past decade in the entire NHL. Because of a few bad breaks (Pronger and Peca wanting out) and for whatever other reasons we lost a ton of that grit and Lowe decided to go with more of a skilled, small team.

As for Tambellini, as far as I'm concerned right now he's batting 0-for as Oilers General Manager. I don't count the drafting of MPS as a move because it was basically a gift that he was available at 10. The only move I liked at the time he made was at last year's deadline when he parlayed a soon to be UFA Cole into O'Sullivan and Kotalik. As it turns out, I'm really not sure if I'd redo that trade or not. As bad as his moves have been to this point, I'm equally baffled by what he hasn't done. It was a fantastic summer to have the fundamental needs that the Oilers had last year. There were a ton of solid checking centers available via UFA and instead of signing one of the dozen or so guys he elected to deal our most dependable bottom six center for scraps. We also needed a goalie and many wanted a younger guy that fit into the age bracket of the key players on this team. Instead we signed a guy already way over the hill to a contract that would take him to the age of 40. It's easy to hate Lowe but the truth Tambo hasn't made a single positive move for this hockey club in the time he's been in charge.
Well said. Why sign Khabbi for 4 years instead of Roloson for 2. He wouldn't sign Roloson for 2 years because of age, yet he signs Khabbi for 4 who's has a history of injury. This season should all be blamed on Tambellini. If Lowe were still the GM, would he have signed Khabbi or Roloson. I have a feeling Lowe would have gone with Roloson for 2 years over Khabbi for 4. Roloson is more durable and doesn't have the injury history that Khabbi has.

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01-15-2010, 03:32 PM
  #78
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Almost all his goals for come off the PP not 5-5.
If that were true, then Grebs would rate low on the +/- scale over the previous six games...... Let us check....

... +/- = 0.....................

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01-15-2010, 03:32 PM
  #79
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lessy View Post
I'm pretty surprised with this article as TSN is usually pretty bang on with this sort of thing. It would be a different story completely if we were trying to contend and needed to add pieces for next season but that's simply not the case for this summer. As of right now, this team has two anchor contracts: Horcoff and Khabibulin. Barring an absolute miracle, both of these guys will be wearing an Oiler jersey next October. One of these is on Lowe and the other is on Tambellini.

Fortunately after those two I really think every other player/contract is movable. Thanks to Penner's breakout season he's pretty clearly now worth his 4.2 million which means he and Hemmer are the only long-term contracts up front other than Horcoff. On the blueline is where we could run into some trouble. Lots of people wanted Tambo to move one of Grebs/Gilbert last summer because of their similarities, their value was at an all time high and the fact that Smid was ready for top four minutes. Of course, this never happened and now they have seen their trade values take a substantial hit. Visnovsky and Souray are top pairing defensemen making top pairing money and are more than movable if that's the route the Oiler brass look to take.

I'm obviously in the minority with this but I really think Lowe's work gets underrated while Tambellini is being given too much slack. Sure Lowe has made some awful moves, the most notable of which is the Horcoff signing but he has also made some gems. He built that 06 team the way a team is supposed to be built to make a run in the playoffs, with depth, talent and incredible grit at all positions. I really think that might be the grittiest team of the past decade in the entire NHL. Because of a few bad breaks (Pronger and Peca wanting out) and for whatever other reasons we lost a ton of that grit and Lowe decided to go with more of a skilled, small team.

As for Tambellini, as far as I'm concerned right now he's batting 0-for as Oilers General Manager. I don't count the drafting of MPS as a move because it was basically a gift that he was available at 10. The only move I liked at the time he made was at last year's deadline when he parlayed a soon to be UFA Cole into O'Sullivan and Kotalik. As it turns out, I'm really not sure if I'd redo that trade or not. As bad as his moves have been to this point, I'm equally baffled by what he hasn't done. It was a fantastic summer to have the fundamental needs that the Oilers had last year. There were a ton of solid checking centers available via UFA and instead of signing one of the dozen or so guys he elected to deal our most dependable bottom six center for scraps. We also needed a goalie and many wanted a younger guy that fit into the age bracket of the key players on this team. Instead we signed a guy already way over the hill to a contract that would take him to the age of 40. It's easy to hate Lowe but the truth Tambo hasn't made a single positive move for this hockey club in the time he's been in charge.
It's not a world beater but Garon for Stone? I only did this to prove you wrong.

As for the Khabby contract being an anchor if he is in the line up he will be fine and if he isn't then we get cap relief from the LTIR. It defintiely hampers us from being able to make any solid goaltending decisions for a few years. But that is fine as we are in need of a few top 5 picks here.

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01-15-2010, 03:33 PM
  #80
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Originally Posted by Narnia View Post
Well said. Why sign Khabbi for 4 years instead of Roloson for 2. He wouldn't sign Roloson for 2 years because of age, yet he signs Khabbi for 4 who's has a history of injury. This season should all be blamed on Tambellini. If Lowe were still the GM, would he have signed Khabbi or Roloson. I have a feeling Lowe would have gone with Roloson for 2 years over Khabbi for 4. Roloson is more durable and doesn't have the injury history that Khabbi has.
People are making a leap of faith that Roloson wanted to re-sign in Edmonton--something I for from somewhere else suggests that the relationship between the Oilers and Roloson was damaged when they brought in Garon and named him the number one goalie over Roloson and Roloson won the job back..

Roloson was not going to re-sign in Edmonton

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01-15-2010, 03:35 PM
  #81
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Originally Posted by Narnia View Post
Well said. Why sign Khabbi for 4 years instead of Roloson for 2. He wouldn't sign Roloson for 2 years because of age, yet he signs Khabbi for 4 who's has a history of injury. This season should all be blamed on Tambellini. If Lowe were still the GM, would he have signed Khabbi or Roloson. I have a feeling Lowe would have gone with Roloson for 2 years over Khabbi for 4. Roloson is more durable and doesn't have the injury history that Khabbi has.
That Khabby contract reeks of Lowe's filth. The organization needed some player that they could use to sell season tickets.

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01-15-2010, 03:37 PM
  #82
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Originally Posted by jumptheshark View Post
People are making a leap of faith that Roloson wanted to re-sign in Edmonton--something I for from somewhere else suggests that the relationship between the Oilers and Roloson was damaged when they brought in Garon and named him the number one goalie over Roloson and Roloson won the job back..

Roloson was not going to re-sign in Edmonton
Yes he would. TSN had an interview with him during the Free Agency Frenzy show where he said I wanted to stay in Edmonton. I would sign less. But I want 2-3 years, and Edmonton wanted 1. So I had to make a tough decision and go to the Islanders.

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01-15-2010, 03:38 PM
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That Khabby contract reeks of Lowe's filth. The organization needed some player that they could use to sell season tickets.
Based on what?

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01-15-2010, 03:41 PM
  #84
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Here is a possible roster with only one real move...shedding Staios.

In these estimates I have tried to over-pay the RFA's by as much as I believe the team could stomach. I also have a 23 man roster rather than the usual 22 man roster. The calculations are based on no changes in the cap (though my guess is that it rises by $500K-1M.)


Code:
PLAYER BONUS CAP HIT 
FORWARDS 
Shawn Horcoff  — $5,500,000 
Dustin Penner  — $4,250,000 
Ales Hemsky  — $4,100,000 
* Sam Gagner  — $3,000,000 
Patrick O'Sullivan  — $2,925,000 
* Gilbert Brule  — $2,500,000 
* Andrew Cogliano  — $2,000,000 
Ethan Moreau  — $2,000,000 
Robert Nilsson  — $2,000,000 
* Ryan Potulny  — $1,300,000 
Jordan Eberle  ($312,500) $1,187,500 
* Ryan Stone  — $800,000 
* Jean-Francois Jacques  — $700,000 
Zack Stortini  — $700,000 
DEFENSEMEN 
Lubomir Visnovsky  — $5,600,000 
Sheldon Souray  — $5,400,000 
Tom Gilbert  — $4,000,000 
* Denis Grebeshkov  — $3,150,000 
Ladislav Smid  — $1,300,000 
Taylor Chorney  ($190,000) $941,666 
* Jason Strudwick  — $700,000 
GOALTENDERS 
Nikolai Khabibulin  — $3,750,000 
* Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers  — $1,000,000 
BUYOUTS 
NONE 
LOST VIA REENTRY WAIVERS 
NONE 
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS 
ROSTER SIZE 23 
SALARY CAP $56,800,000 
PAYROLL $58,804,166 
BONUSES $502,500 
CAP SPACE $-1,501,666
As it is this team is about $2M over the cap (as of right now bouses are in). Remove one of Nilsson or Moreau and you are compliant. If the RFA's get what I expect them to you shed another $2-3.5M from the total. THis would be enough for one significant upgrade and a little breathing room.

This year the Oilers cannot go whale hunting without moving salary. But they certainly don't have to make a ton of moves to manage the cap. However, if someone like Souray is traded, then the team could in fact end up with a pretty good chunck of cap space.

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01-15-2010, 03:46 PM
  #85
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Reimer View Post
That Khabby contract reeks of Lowe's filth. The organization needed some player that they could use to sell season tickets.
Why is KLowe constantly getting blamed for Tambi's mistakes. Tambi is the GM and he singed Khabbi. Enough Lowe hatred already. The hatred for Lowe is making people blame Klowe for Tambi's mistakes. I'm getting sick of it. There's a reason KLowe doesn't want to talk to the media.

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01-15-2010, 03:46 PM
  #86
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fourier View Post
Here is a possible roster with only one real move...shedding Staios.

In these estimates I have tried to over-pay the RFA's by as much as I believe the team could stomach. I also have a 23 man roster rather than the usual 22 man roster. The calculations are based on no changes in the cap (though my guess is that it rises by $500K-1M.)


Code:
PLAYER BONUS CAP HIT 
FORWARDS 
Shawn Horcoff   $5,500,000 
Dustin Penner   $4,250,000 
Ales Hemsky   $4,100,000 
* Sam Gagner   $3,000,000 
Patrick O'Sullivan   $2,925,000 
* Gilbert Brule   $2,500,000 
* Andrew Cogliano   $2,000,000 
Ethan Moreau   $2,000,000 
Robert Nilsson   $2,000,000 
* Ryan Potulny   $1,300,000 
Jordan Eberle  ($312,500) $1,187,500 
* Ryan Stone   $800,000 
* Jean-Francois Jacques   $700,000 
Zack Stortini   $700,000 
DEFENSEMEN 
Lubomir Visnovsky   $5,600,000 
Sheldon Souray   $5,400,000 
Tom Gilbert   $4,000,000 
* Denis Grebeshkov   $3,150,000 
Ladislav Smid   $1,300,000 
Taylor Chorney  ($190,000) $941,666 
* Jason Strudwick   $700,000 
GOALTENDERS 
Nikolai Khabibulin   $3,750,000 
* Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers   $1,000,000 
BUYOUTS 
NONE 
LOST VIA REENTRY WAIVERS 
NONE 
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS 
ROSTER SIZE 23 
SALARY CAP $56,800,000 
PAYROLL $58,804,166 
BONUSES $502,500 
CAP SPACE $-1,501,666
As it is this team is about $2M over the cap (as of right now bouses are in). Remove one of Nilsson or Moreau and you are compliant. If the RFA's get what I expect them to you shed another $2-3.5M from the total. THis would be enough for one significant upgrade and a little breathing room.

This year the Oilers cannot go whale hunting without moving salary. But they certainly don't have to make a ton of moves to manage the cap. However, if someone like Souray is traded, then the team could in fact end up with a pretty good chunck of cap space.

Move O'Sullivan and Grebeshkov. Get back a decent third liner and a defensive d-man, that move alone should save you around 2-3mil and makes you a better team.

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01-15-2010, 03:48 PM
  #87
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Originally Posted by Narnia View Post
Why is KLowe constantly getting blamed for Tambi's mistakes. Tambi is the GM and he singed Khabbi. Enough Lowe hatred already. The hatred for Lowe is making people blame Klowe for Tambi's mistakes. I'm getting sick of it. There's a reason KLowe doesn't want to talk to the media.
Klowe doesn't talk to the media? He has been on the team 1260 probably more then tambo this year.

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01-15-2010, 03:48 PM
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Move O'Sullivan and Grebeshkov. Get back a decent third liner and a defensive d-man, that move alone should save you around 2-3mil and makes you a better team.
I also think there are lots of options. This team can clear space if need be. I just hope that any space is used wisely rather than squandered simply because it is there.

WRT these specific moves, they would not be my first choice. O'Sullivan is actually starting to come on. I still have hope. Grebs is young. He showed he is capable of being responsible. I'd have no problem giving him one more year.

Personally, I get the sense that Souray will move on. I also think that at least two of Staios, Moreau and Nilsson will be gone. That in itself would leave a fair bit of space.

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01-15-2010, 03:52 PM
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Based on what?
Based on inflation of years (see Staios, Moreau, Pisani, Horcoff, arguably Gilbert) and inflation of dollars (see Staios, Moreau, Pisani, Horcoff, Gilbert).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Narnia View Post
Why is KLowe constantly getting blamed for Tambi's mistakes. Tambi is the GM and he singed Khabbi. Enough Lowe hatred already. The hatred for Lowe is making people blame Klowe for Tambi's mistakes. I'm getting sick of it. There's a reason KLowe doesn't want to talk to the media.
Lowe gets blamed because he still runs the show eventhough they named Tamby as GM. Lowe had to be removed as GM to appease Oiler fans. Doesn't mean he isn't making palyer transactions behind the scene. Even more so I think most of this crap reeks of Katz.

I think I have heard Lowe in the media about twice as much as Tambellini. Where do you get your bs from?

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01-15-2010, 03:53 PM
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I also think there are lots of options. This team can clear space if need be. I just hope that any space is used wisely rather than squandered simply because it is there.
If we were really in trouble wouldn't Katz agree to throwing a Nilsson or O'Sullivan in the minors?

TSN is stupid. Look at what teams like Philly and the Rangers do year after year. These teams are right at the cap and yet somehow they find ways to add impact players. Even Horcoff if we really wanted him gone I am sure trading him a prospect and a first for a plug would probably work. Not something we should do, but it has been done in the past.

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01-15-2010, 03:57 PM
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If we were really in trouble wouldn't Katz agree to throwing a Nilsson or O'Sullivan in the minors?

TSN is stupid. Look at what teams like Philly and the Rangers do year after year. These teams are right at the cap and yet somehow they find ways to add impact players. Even Horcoff if we really wanted him gone I am sure trading him a prospect and a first for a plug would probably work. Not something we should do, but it has been done in the past.
You gotta remember that in any trade dealing with Horcoff no matter how much the Oilers add with picks and prospects, the receiving team must have cap space not only now but for the next 4 or 5 years as well. That is the biggest issue.

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01-15-2010, 03:58 PM
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Originally Posted by Reimer View Post
Based on inflation of years (see Staios, Moreau, Pisani, Horcoff, arguably Gilbert) and inflation of dollars (see Staios, Moreau, Pisani, Horcoff, Gilbert).



Lowe gets blamed because he still runs the show eventhough they named Tamby as GM. Lowe had to be removed as GM to appease Oiler fans. Doesn't mean he isn't making palyer transactions behind the scene. Even more so I think most of this crap reeks of Katz.

I think I have heard Lowe in the media about twice as much as Tambellini. Where do you get your bs from?
While I don't agree that Lowe is still running the show simply because I think he is too wrapped up in the Olympics and Lowe was more of a guy that made moves then staying still, I will agree on Katz.

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01-15-2010, 03:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Reimer View Post
Based on inflation of years (see Staios, Moreau, Pisani, Horcoff, arguably Gilbert) and inflation of dollars (see Staios, Moreau, Pisani, Horcoff, Gilbert).



Lowe gets blamed because he still runs the show eventhough they named Tamby as GM. Lowe had to be removed as GM to appease Oiler fans. Doesn't mean he isn't making palyer transactions behind the scene. Even more so I think most of this crap reeks of Katz.

I think I have heard Lowe in the media about twice as much as Tambellini. Where do you get your bs from?
You have no proof Lowe runs the show. It was either Geno Reda or Gord Miller that said KLowe isn't involved with any moves the teams makes. I'm really getting fed up with the constant Lowe hatred and blaming Lowe for Tambi's mistakes. TAMBI IS THE GM.

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01-15-2010, 04:01 PM
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You gotta remember that in any trade dealing with Horcoff no matter how much the Oilers add with picks and prospects, the receiving team must have cap space not only now but for the next 4 or 5 years as well. That is the biggest issue.
Yep, doesn't mean we can't take on a lesser bad contract though. It's almost like we should trade Horcoff for Drury. While it is 1.5mil more, the salary is only there for 2 years instead of 5.

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01-15-2010, 04:01 PM
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You have no proof Lowe runs the show. It was either Geno Reda or Gord Miller that said KLowe isn't involved with any moves the teams makes. I'm really getting fed up with the constant Lowe hatred and blaming Lowe for Tambi's mistakes. TAMBI IS THE GM.
You have no proof that he doesn't. In his last appearance on Stauffers show Lowe even alluded to assessing the players in the next 20 or so games before the dealine and deciding what they want to do. That may not have been word for word but that was definitely the main point.

By that comment alone I would say that at the very least it proves your ****** sources wrong.

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01-15-2010, 04:04 PM
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Originally Posted by joestevens29 View Post
Yep, doesn't mean we can't take on a lesser bad contract though. It's almost like we should trade Horcoff for Drury. While it is 1.5mil more, the salary is only there for 2 years instead of 5.
I agree with you but that is the biggest contraint. Do you think the Rangers would do that deal? They may they may not, but the contraint is them thinking 3,4 and 5 years down the road.

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01-15-2010, 04:11 PM
  #97
Narnia
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Originally Posted by Reimer View Post
You have no proof that he doesn't. In his last appearance on Stauffers show Lowe even alluded to assessing the players in the next 20 or so games before the dealine and deciding what they want to do. That may not have been word for word but that was definitely the main point.

By that comment alone I would say that at the very least it proves your ****** sources wrong.
Where's you're proof he is. Or is it just Lowe hatred.

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01-15-2010, 04:13 PM
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Originally Posted by Narnia View Post
Where's you're proof he is. Or is it just Lowe hatred.
Seeing as how Lowe said he is taking part in assessing and deciding what to do with players that is a really good start.

Where is your proof he isn't? Or is that just your Tamby hatred?

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01-15-2010, 04:13 PM
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Originally Posted by Reimer View Post
I agree with you but that is the biggest contraint. Do you think the Rangers would do that deal? They may they may not, but the contraint is them thinking 3,4 and 5 years down the road.
Even if you have to sweeten the pot with a pick you try do it. Maybe you can convince sather to take on another cheaper bad contract at the same time. Although Gainey might be the idiot we should be talking to do.

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01-15-2010, 04:13 PM
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Originally Posted by oil1215 View Post
Can some one fill me in on exactly what it would cost us to buy out Horcoff's contract. When you buy out the contract is it for half the price and double the term? If that is the case I would just bite the bullet and continue
with him on the roster.
Regardless of the money associated with buying out Horcoff, it results in huge cap savings in Years 1 and 2 while he's paid higher than the average of his contract, but a huge cap hit in the cheaper years of his contract.

If they bought him out this summer the cap hits would be as follows:
2010-2011: $733,333
2011-2012: $733,333
2012-2013: $1,233,333
2013-2014: $3,233,333
2014-2015: $4,233,333
2015-2016: $1,733,333
2016-2017: $1,733,333
2017-2018: $1,733,333
2018-2019: $1,733,333
2019-2020: $1,733,333

The biggest issues with those number is how many years that they deal with the hit and also during the target years to be competetive, they'd have a huge drain on their salary cap (over 4 million in years 2014-15) nullifying that chance. Seriously, when it comes to Horcoff you have to either hope he returns to at least the better version of himself so he is only slightly overpaid or you have to bury him until the dollars are cheap versus his cap hit and then some low budget team may consider taking him as their budget is the bigger constraint rather than the cap hit.

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