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2010-11/2011-12: Return to the Brink?

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Old
01-16-2010, 09:15 AM
  #1
hfboardsuser
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2010-11/2011-12: Return to the Brink?

Though we're not even at Game 50 yet, odds and mathematical probability indicate this season is probably beyond salvaging- even if Tambelowe do their absolute best/worst Mike Milbury impersonation.

However, despite all this roster's failings, I think there's too much talent to be DFF bad- just mediocre. IF we remain relatively healthy the next two seasons, we'll easily return to the gray area that is 16-24.

Here's why:

Dustin Penner- UFA summer 2012
Shawn Horcoff- UFA summer 2015
Ales Hemsky- UFA summer 2012

Lubomir Visnovsky- UFA summer 2013
Sheldon Souray- UFA summer 2012
Tom Gilbert- UFA summer 2014

Nikolai Khabibulan- UFA summer 2013

I think the reason we're seeing such a fight from management to give up the ghost is because they know the above 'core' will be waiting for them no matter what next year. I think they believe- ESPECIALLY Tambellini- that the dice can't roll this way again, and that their moves will really, truly yield a playoff team. All they need is a 'fair shake' and a star player, never mind what old Grandpa Pat has not-so-subtly been suggesting since Day One.

Thankfully, the combined ineptitude of Lowe and Tambellini has ensured they can't (easily) enter another July 1st with a loaded gun to point at their extremities. But as the Heatley 'sweepstakes' proved you can never underestimate the power of stupid.

Rebuild or not, Taylor Hall might be the best thing to happen to this time in the next two years. And that's a scary thought.

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Old
01-16-2010, 10:15 AM
  #2
Red Deer Rebel
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The only players who are untradeable in your list are Horcoff and Bulin. Gilbert may be tough to move.

The others are all tradeable, and if management is committed to a rebuild, both Penner and Souray should be moved this season.

Penner should be moved because his value is as high as it can ever be expected to be. He could return a first rounder, and a good prospect.

Souray should be moved because he could seriously damage his value if he gets injured again.

I fail to see the crisis.

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Old
01-16-2010, 10:32 AM
  #3
Harley
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My dream:

Finnish second last. Draft Seguin.
2010/2011-Say to hell with it and start the season with Eberle-Seguin-PAS all in the lineup.
Take our lumps once again. Probably another high pick.

But going forward that is a pretty impressive talent base to build a winner. Pick and choose from the best of what we already have and I can't help it. I'm more optimistic about this teams future than I have been in years.

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Old
01-16-2010, 11:02 AM
  #4
reckless_abandon
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Red Deer Rebel View Post
The only players who are untradeable in your list are Horcoff and Bulin. Gilbert may be tough to move.
I think that a Gilbert for Mezsaros trade could be benificial for both players, and potentially teams. Having a name American player in Tampa might entice 4 more fans to purchase tickets. They both play similar styles as far as I know, and fans have similar griefs, along with comparable contracts. Mezsaros has been a healthy scratch lately. What do you guys think?

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Old
01-16-2010, 11:11 AM
  #5
Soli
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I fully expect management to try and turn this team around in an offseason. I don't feel like they think they are burdened with the core as described, but I do think they feel the crunch of the 2012 season. IMO, they're of the mind that they need to field a competitive team at very least by the 2012 season, and it's going to start by aiming for the playoffs in 2011. If the current cornerstones of their forward core (Hemsky and Penner) don't see a contender here in 2012, they're gonna bolt and than we'll be up the creek without a paddle for a couple more years.

By the end of 2012, we'll know if we're at the Brink 2.0 or if 2010 was the turning point.

Slightly OT: I fully expect management to pursue Jagr this offseason and bring him in on a 2-year deal to sort of transition and shelter the next influx of rookies (Hall/Seguin, and if not both, one of Eberle and MSP). I don't think management will address the need for veteran NHLers to handle tough minutes or shutdown roles.

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Old
01-16-2010, 11:28 AM
  #6
rockinghockey
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Bugg View Post
Though we're not even at Game 50 yet, odds and mathematical probability indicate this season is probably beyond salvaging- even if Tambelowe do their absolute best/worst Mike Milbury impersonation.

However, despite all this roster's failings, I think there's too much talent to be DFF bad- just mediocre. IF we remain relatively healthy the next two seasons, we'll easily return to the gray area that is 16-24.

Here's why:

Dustin Penner- UFA summer 2012
Shawn Horcoff- UFA summer 2015
Ales Hemsky- UFA summer 2012

Lubomir Visnovsky- UFA summer 2013
Sheldon Souray- UFA summer 2012
Tom Gilbert- UFA summer 2014

Nikolai Khabibulan- UFA summer 2013

I think the reason we're seeing such a fight from management to give up the ghost is because they know the above 'core' will be waiting for them no matter what next year. I think they believe- ESPECIALLY Tambellini- that the dice can't roll this way again, and that their moves will really, truly yield a playoff team. All they need is a 'fair shake' and a star player, never mind what old Grandpa Pat has not-so-subtly been suggesting since Day One.

Thankfully, the combined ineptitude of Lowe and Tambellini has ensured they can't (easily) enter another July 1st with a loaded gun to point at their extremities. But as the Heatley 'sweepstakes' proved you can never underestimate the power of stupid.

Rebuild or not, Taylor Hall might be the best thing to happen to this time in the next two years. And that's a scary thought.
I am all for a complete rebuild. That means the following leaving:
Souray
Vis
Gilbert or Grebs
Staios
Moreau

I would keep Penner and Hemmer. Hopefully next year they can click like at the beginning of the year. This would clear up significant cap space and lets monitor our spending this time.

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Old
01-16-2010, 11:30 AM
  #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Soli View Post
I fully expect management to try and turn this team around in an offseason. I don't feel like they think they are burdened with the core as described, but I do think they feel the crunch of the 2012 season. IMO, they're of the mind that they need to field a competitive team at very least by the 2012 season, and it's going to start by aiming for the playoffs in 2011. If the current cornerstones of their forward core (Hemsky and Penner) don't see a contender here in 2012, they're gonna bolt and than we'll be up the creek without a paddle for a couple more years.

By the end of 2012, we'll know if we're at the Brink 2.0 or if 2010 was the turning point.

Slightly OT: I fully expect management to pursue Jagr this offseason and bring him in on a 2-year deal to sort of transition and shelter the next influx of rookies (Hall/Seguin, and if not both, one of Eberle and MSP). I don't think management will address the need for veteran NHLers to handle tough minutes or shutdown roles.
Bringing in Jagr would be the biggest mistake they can make. We dont need to go after an ex super star that is not going to help our team.

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Old
01-16-2010, 11:51 AM
  #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rockinghockey View Post
Bringing in Jagr would be the biggest mistake they can make. We dont need to go after an ex super star that is not going to help our team.
I'm okay with it. I don't think it would be an expensive pursuit and would help in sheltering the influx of rookies we're bound to have. He can still play, and even if he's only good for 50 - 60 points, thats still 50 - 60 points we don't have from anyone on the roster. Having Jagr and Hemsky on a line and hopefully a defensive-oriented line centered around Horcoff would help foster an environment for Hall/Seguin and Eberle to succeed (hopefully!) in.

Besides, it's likely to move to be coming as management attempts to reload quickly for the 2012 window. Too many signs pointing in his direction (KHL contract over, Flemming, Renney, Hemsky, Katz looking to finally make a splash).

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Old
01-16-2010, 11:56 AM
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These are the kind of moves we need to make at the deadline.

To Montreal:
Dustin Penner

To Edmonton:
Roman Hamrlik


Montreal bolsters their offense, while their defense still remains relatively respectable. Edmonton gets a veteran, hard-nosed shutdown d-man who can mentor the young ones in favour of Visnovsky/Souray.


Penner-Plekanec-Gionta
Cammalleri-Gomez-Kostitsyn
Moen-Lapierre-Pouliot
Pacioretty-Metropolit-D'Agostini

Markov-Spacek
Mara-Gorges
Gill-Bergeron


To Boston:
Ales Hemsky

To Edmonton:
Marco Sturm
Mark Stuart
2nd round pick


Lucic-Savard-Ryder
Recchi-Krejci-Hemsky
Satan-Bergeron-Wheeler
Paille-Thornton-Begin

Chara-Wideman
Hunwick-Morris
Ference-Wozniewski

Boston gets another game-breaker who can match Savard's playmaking abilities, and gives them even more scoring depth heading into the playoffs. They don't sacrifice much either.

To Phoenix:
Lubomir Visnovsky
Andrew Cogliano

To Edmonton:
Peter Mueller
Martin Hanzal
1st round pick

Phoenix gets an all-star defenseman, and exchange struggling young players who could use a change of scenery. They also have two first round draft picks this year, so they have flexibility.

To Los Angeles:
Sheldon Souray

To Edmonton:
Wayne Simmonds
Jack Johnson
Ted Purcell

Los Angeles bolsters their defense and PP by a ton, while giving up key role players at various positions. They also have the cap space necessary.

In 1-2 years:

Sturm-Hall-Eberle
MPS-Gagner-Mueller
Simmonds-Hanzal-O'Sullivan
Purcell-Horcoff-Brule

Hamrlik-Smid
Grebeshkov-Johnson
Stuart-Gilbert

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Old
01-16-2010, 12:07 PM
  #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rockinghockey View Post
Bringing in Jagr would be the biggest mistake they can make. We dont need to go after an ex super star that is not going to help our team.
Jagr has not retired and he may not be the super star he once was but your fooling your self if you think he does not have a good game or that he would not help any team out nevermind the Oilers.

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Old
01-16-2010, 12:09 PM
  #11
ponokanocker
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Penner straight up for Hamrlik? No thanks. And isn't Hemsky done for the entire year, including playoffs?

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Old
01-16-2010, 12:23 PM
  #12
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trade vis, gilbert....hemsky next year....

than in a few years maybe they have

pajaarvi-gagner-eberle
penner-nilsson/brule-omark

fowler-souray
smyd-grebeshkov

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Old
01-16-2010, 12:33 PM
  #13
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Originally Posted by ponokanocker View Post
Penner straight up for Hamrlik? No thanks. And isn't Hemsky done for the entire year, including playoffs?
Sorry, I meant off-season for that trade.

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Old
01-16-2010, 01:20 PM
  #14
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most of the trade need the "why would the other guys do it"

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Old
01-16-2010, 01:37 PM
  #15
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Guys imo who are sure to be traded if there are offers:
Staios
Moreau
Pisani
Strudwick(yes, even struds)

Guys who would be moved if we get strong offers:
Visnovsky(100% gone if the oilers get a decent offer imo)
Souray
O'Sullivan
Cogliano
Nilsson

Obviously not all of these guys will be gone but I think the first 4 guys will be 100% and so will a few of the later guys. I understand the distrust between oilers fans and the gms but I'm willing to give them one last chance. I think they realize that they made some mistakes in putting this team together.

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Old
01-16-2010, 01:44 PM
  #16
Giant Moo
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Originally Posted by jumptheshark View Post
most of the trade need the "why would the other guys do it"
Indeed. It's usually missing.

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