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Hornqvist: Over/Under 29 Goals? and RFA compensation.

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01-16-2010, 12:36 PM
  #1
predfan24
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Hornqvist: Over/Under 29 Goals? and RFA compensation.

I'm going to say he just barely gets 30 and finishes with either 30 or 31.

Realistically you can say at this point barring an injury setback he has a great probality of hitting somewhere between 27-32 goals. If he reaches these numbers along of 45-50 points what kind of money would he be worth at the end of the year. Personally I would love a contract someone around 2 million a year for a couple years but I'm just not sure what he'll be worth. Any ideas?

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01-16-2010, 01:14 PM
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goalscorer
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I'd guess he'll hit at least thirty as long as he doesnt get injured for an extended amount of time. His in your face style is great for this team, but he runs a pretty high risk of getting hurt playing that way, IMO. (cheap shots, dirty hits, etc.)

I think 2 mil/ 2 year/ one way is a good price. A huge jump from 620k. Allows us to make sure its not a one season "fluke" and if he continues to have this type of an impact then he gets bank. Im not too good with salaries though.

Man he has certainly come out as a star for us. I remember just a couple of months ago, we were all griping that he only shoots to the goalies chest and why was he ever labeled a sniper, etc. So glad we are being proven wrong.

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01-16-2010, 09:53 PM
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golfmade
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I think he'll end up with 27-28.

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01-17-2010, 12:23 AM
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I'd love to see him get whatever he can. I still laugh when he tries to make things happen outside of in front of the goalies face. It just doesn't happen for him like that it seems. Personally I think its a testiment to do what he's told to do. Much like Ward does what he's told to do and its usually the right thing. I think we'll see either two things. He gets a butload of confidence and scores like crazy from here on out, or he gets to confident and starts gettting a little too technical with his play. I know those are two pretty obvious scenarios.

Either way I like what hes doing taking lots of shots.

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01-17-2010, 07:52 AM
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codeyh
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Hornqvist hits 30 goals, he's looking at a Legwand/Erat type contract.

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01-17-2010, 10:17 AM
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token grinder
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Quote:
Originally Posted by codeyh View Post
Hornqvist hits 30 goals, he's looking at a Legwand/Erat type contract.
not on his first deal. he will have no leverage in negotiations. if someone plops an offer sheet down for that money, we take the four 1sr rounders.

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01-17-2010, 10:32 AM
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I think Poile will try to sign him to a solid pay increase, but not something long term. Probably something around $2 - 3 million (see how many points he ends up with this season) each for two seasons. If Hornqvist is still bringing it, then he'd likely get a bigger deal then.

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01-17-2010, 11:26 AM
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If Poile believes that Hornqvist can be a top line player capable of scoring then I could see him getting a long term deal. Remember Arnott's and Sullivan's contracts are coming up. Wilson is touted as the replacement for Arnott maybe Hornqvist can replace Sullivan. Short money for the first year which dramatically increases for the second year using the money Sullivan and Arnott would have been taking. If somehow Radulov were to come back, you could see the SAD line fully replaced with Wilson, Hornqvist, and what ever Nashville can get for Radulov.

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01-17-2010, 12:03 PM
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worstfaceoffmanever
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Quote:
Originally Posted by token grinder View Post
not on his first deal. he will have no leverage in negotiations. if someone plops an offer sheet down for that money, we take the four 1sr rounders.
Disagree completely.

Hörnqvist is on pace for 33 goals and 19 assists (which would tie the franchise record for goals in a season). Look at some of the recent contracts for players with similar numbers:

2007 - Dustin Penner, 29g+16a - 5 years, $4.25M (Offer Sheet)
2008 - Patrick Sharp, 36g+26a - 4 years, $3.9M (UFA, signed mid-season)
2009 - Phil Kessel, 36g+24a - 5 years, $5.4M
2009 - Alexandre Burrows, 28g+23a - 4 years, $2M
2009 - Loui Eriksson, 36g+27a - 6 years, $4.27M
2009 - Johan Franzen, 34g+25a - 11 years, $3.95M

Only one of those players (Franzen) had a resume of significant offensive success longer than the year in which their previous contract expired.

If Hörnqvist gets 30 goals, he's going to get paid, and he's going to get paid by us. The scarcity of forwards in our organization will put a good bit of pressure on Poile to get a deal done with Hörnqvist. It is also because of that scarcity that we cannot afford to simply take picks if an offer sheet comes along.

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01-17-2010, 12:33 PM
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BigFatCat999
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$863,156 or less
None

$863,156 - $1,307,812
3rd round pick

$1,307,812 - $2,615,625
2nd round pick

$2,615,623 - $3,923,437
1st and 3rd round pick

$3,923,437 - $5,231,249
1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick

$5,231,249 - $6,539,062
Two 1st's, one 2nd, one 3rd round pick

$6,539,062 or more
Four 1st round picks

That is the compensation table for last year's RFA I think Hornqvist will be in the 1st 3rd round pick range. If the Preds do sign Hornqvist to a deal higher than 2.5 million they are making a commitment to have him as a replacement for one of Sully or Dumont. Note, the Preds have never crossed the 4.5 million dollar threshold for a player. The numbers Worst posted are rather frightening contract wise. If they can get a Burrows contract for Hornqvist I would be fine with that. A contract that is light the first year and heavier in the later years I can live with it. Arnott and Sully will be off the books in 2 years. But if someone were to come in with a rediculous contract that's 4.5-5 million dollars I would not be surprised to see Poile take the picks.

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01-17-2010, 01:41 PM
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I see that happening as well. I don't care what he does this year. He's gonna help us out regardless. If some one offers us a decent pick he'll be gone.

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01-17-2010, 04:26 PM
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I have a feeling we offer probably around 3 million and would likely match an offer sheet for up to 4.5 million if it came to that.

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01-17-2010, 08:34 PM
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dulzhok
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If the cap does down a couple million, it will alter all negotiations this summer.

Here's the bad thing-- the Legwand and Erat contracts are not only handicapping our team because both are overpaid by at least a million. But, those contracts handicap negations with any player who scores 20 goals on our team.

If we can't come to an agreement with Hornqvist, arbitration is also a possibility. And I'm sure Legwand and Erat contracts will be exhibit 1 & 2.

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01-17-2010, 08:41 PM
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mckly
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hornqvist is the man!!!!!!!!!! i predict 33 goals for him

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01-17-2010, 10:06 PM
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I'm not sure what your trying to say about the Legwands contract so I'll just say this. Legwand didn't get his contract for 20 goals a season. He gets his contract because because he does just about everything else for this team.

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01-18-2010, 01:36 AM
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dulzhok
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thejlb View Post
I'm not sure what your trying to say about the Legwands contract so I'll just say this.
I'm tyring to say he's overpaid by atleast a million.

Comparables for what he SHOULD be getting are Dan Cleary (3.1), Jamie Langenbrunner (2.9), Umberger (3.7). Good defensive players with a hint of offense.

DP paid Lewgand and Erat both more potenital than true worth. Erat started to show some of that potential this year. But until it happens, both are overpaid by atleast a million. Still decent players, but not 4.5m dollar players.

What I'm saying is that mistake will likely continue to cost us in negotiation with Hornqvist.


Last edited by dulzhok: 01-18-2010 at 01:50 AM.
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01-18-2010, 09:06 AM
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token grinder
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[QUOTE=dulzhok;23259462]I'm tyring to say he's overpaid by atleast a million.

Comparables for what he SHOULD be getting are Dan Cleary (3.1), Jamie Langenbrunner (2.9), Umberger (3.7). Good defensive players with a hint of offense.
QUOTE]

can't beleive i'm defending him but...

cleary benefitted from playing on a top two line, even though he is a third line player. i coulda potted 20 goals playing with franzen, zetterburg, datsyuk, etc. he isn't with all those guys this year, and without even looking at the stats, i would bet he would be lucky to get 20 goals. umberger is a decent player, but there is a reason he was traded by philly for a bag of pucks and now columbus wants to run him out of town, mainly for not being a winner. rather he accepts defeat and gets lazy, someting i have never seen legwand do. langenbruner is old, that is why he isn't paid. legwand is a better player than all those guys, better speed than all of them with umberger being close. only one that has better offensive game is langenbruner.

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01-18-2010, 12:04 PM
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All i'm saying Legwand has averages about 20 minutes a night. only defensemen have more ice time. Not only that but he does it against the other teams top line every night. Second maybe even first now in forwards with blocked shots. Was second in game winning goals. He's fifth in points this year with 28. J.P. Dumont is first with 31. I'm not saying he isn't overpaid. If horqvist thinks he'll get even close to that. I say bye bye Hornqvist.

Now I realise you mean that they'll probably overpay to resign Hornqvist. I just take offense when Legwands contract gets brought up. Not you I'm talking about but people tend to think he's overpaid just because he doesn't score 30 goals a season.

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01-18-2010, 03:02 PM
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dulzhok
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Originally Posted by thejlb View Post
I'm not saying he isn't overpaid.
Then we're in agreement here.

Quote:
cleary benefitted from playing on a top two line, even though he is a third line player.
Same could be said for Legwand. On most playoff contenders, Legwand would likely not be on a scoring line. Best comparable is John Madden. Very good defensive cetner, *some* offensive, but not capable of being counted on offensively. Another good comparable is Marco Strum (3.5m), though Sturm is better in the offensive zne.

IMO, the people that are rightfully getting paid around 4.5m are Brendan Morrow (4.1), Patrick Sharp (3.9), Ryan Malone (4.25). Guys that are good all around players, but can be counted on to carry some offensive load, yet aren't offensive stars.

Then there are those who are underpaid at ~4.5m like Marc Savard or Shane Doan.

And there are others who are overpaid at ~4.5m like Mike Handzus or Jason Blake.

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01-18-2010, 06:03 PM
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token grinder
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i disagree. legwand has good offensive skills. he has shown when he has two guys who can keep up with him, he can pot goals. his problem is he has got that defense first type of attitude. i guess it is a pick your poison, sell out offensively or shut down other teams top lines

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01-18-2010, 10:48 PM
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You could hide all the timestamps and you could narrow it down to the trade deadline or the start of free agency by seeing when dulzhok posts. Sure enough, about Poile.

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01-18-2010, 11:08 PM
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dulzhok
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You could hide all the timestamps and you could narrow it down to the trade deadline or the start of free agency by seeing when dulzhok posts. Sure enough, about Poile.
Cry me a river. I'll post on what topics I want to post on, but I certainly appreicate your concern Sorry if you can't handle another opinion.

Since you seem to want to talk about it, yes, my biggest concern is the Predators staying in Nashville. And for that to happen, we're going to have generate some excitement outside of losing in the first round of the playoffs.

DP is notrious for a building a team that makes the playoffs, but doesn't make any playoff noise. It's why he was fired in Washington. I'm pretty sure Poile holds the NHL record for most first-round exits by a GM.

So Stranger, you care to post something relevant to Hornqvist (like comparable contracts)? Or would you like to continue to steer the conversation elsewhere? Your call, buddy.

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01-18-2010, 11:10 PM
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Originally Posted by dulzhok View Post
So Stranger, you care to post something relevant to Hornqvist (like comparable contracts)?
http://hfboards.com/showpost.php?p=23244012&postcount=7

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01-19-2010, 12:32 AM
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dulzhok
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Well done, you're able to stay on topic half the time.

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01-19-2010, 04:10 PM
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With cap uncertainty not sure how many teams are gonna plop down big offer sheets this summer but I think poile would likely maych anything up to 4 or 4.5 million a year. he wouldnt like it, but he'd do it.


Does Horn even have arbitration rights? i didnt think players coming off rookie deals did yet...

typical poile would be to try to get him to sign for reasonable money for more years so he will come out of his next contract still in RFA status.

4 years 14 million spread out 3,3,4,4 sounds about right...

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