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NHL Draft - Prospects Discuss hockey prospects from all over the world and the NHL Draft.

RW Evgeny Kuznetsov (2010, 26th overall, Washington)

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Old
02-18-2011, 03:53 PM
  #251
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Goal and an assist today.

17g 14a. Leads the team in goals, tied for 1st in overall points

3 of his goals are short-handed

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02-19-2011, 12:38 PM
  #252
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PortlandWinterHawks View Post
top 6 forward, upside is probably semin-datsyuk and downside is probably a better version of maxim afinogenov with a decent shot.
Why do people make absurd statements like this? If his downside were a better version of Afinogenov, he'd have been the undisputed #1 pick.

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02-19-2011, 01:19 PM
  #253
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brandinho View Post
Why do people make absurd statements like this? If his downside were a better version of Afinogenov, he'd have been the undisputed #1 pick.
lol, you realize his draft has passed by 8 months?

you think he would be still drafted at 26 today?

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02-20-2011, 11:30 AM
  #254
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1 assist in a 6-2 loss today.

what are his totals in KHL games since coming back from the WJC?
i'm under the impression it is something like a PPG pace.

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02-20-2011, 12:05 PM
  #255
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Quote:
Originally Posted by helicecopter View Post
1 assist in a 6-2 loss today.

what are his totals in KHL games since coming back from the WJC?
i'm under the impression it is something like a PPG pace.
After WJC: 12 games, 17 points. 8 goals, 9 assists.

Whoops, its without the last game.
So 13 games, 18 points, 8 goals, 10 assists.

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02-20-2011, 02:21 PM
  #256
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Final stats for Kuznetsov

GP: 44 / G: 17 / A: 15 / Pts: 32 / +7

Face Offs: 36%

TOI: 14:12

9 goals were Even Strength
5 goals were on the Power Play
3 goals where Short Handed
2 Goals were Game Winners (1 in OT)

Led the team in goals and points, 3rd best in +/- (1st among forwards)

.....all this as an 18 year old

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02-21-2011, 06:49 AM
  #257
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Interesting, that 18 years old Malkin also scored exactly 32(12+20) points in the premier Russian hockey league(at that time it called RSL), but it took for him more games - 52.

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02-21-2011, 02:46 PM
  #258
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Originally Posted by helicecopter View Post
lol, you realize his draft has passed by 8 months?

you think he would be still drafted at 26 today?
Impossible to say. I doubt teams have changed their minds about their selections less than a year later. But that's beside the point.

Saying his downside is a better version of Afinogenov is an incredibly stupid statement.

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02-21-2011, 05:35 PM
  #259
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Originally Posted by Brandinho View Post
Impossible to say. I doubt teams have changed their minds about their selections less than a year later.

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02-21-2011, 09:22 PM
  #260
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brandinho View Post
Impossible to say. I doubt teams have changed their minds about their selections less than a year later.
Trashcat is amused.

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02-21-2011, 10:44 PM
  #261
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Quote:
Originally Posted by helicecopter View Post
An emoticon? What a brilliant argument!

There seems to be this myth on HF that the complexion of a draft changes dramatically after 6 months or a year or even two years. On an objective level, what Kuznetsov is doing in the KHL is a hell of a lot more impressive than what, for example, Kevin Hayes is doing in the NCAA. But Chicago had their reasons for selecting Hayes over Kuznetsov, reasons you or I aren't privy to. Ultimately, neither have proven anything yet so why should Chicago's GM suddenly say, "oh my God, I screwed up, I wish I had that pick back". That's absurd. Every GM knew the talent Kuznetsov possessed. 25 of them still passed on him. 25 of them preferred a different player. Would some change their mind now? Sure, it's possible, but suggesting that it's a foregone conclusion is ridiculous. As an example, if a GM's rationale for passing on Kuznetsov was that he felt it unwise to invest a first round pick in a Russian playing in Russia, that isn't going to change now that Kuznetsov is putting up great point totals in Russia.

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02-21-2011, 11:56 PM
  #262
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brandinho View Post
An emoticon? What a brilliant argument!

There seems to be this myth on HF that the complexion of a draft changes dramatically after 6 months or a year or even two years. On an objective level, what Kuznetsov is doing in the KHL is a hell of a lot more impressive than what, for example, Kevin Hayes is doing in the NCAA. But Chicago had their reasons for selecting Hayes over Kuznetsov, reasons you or I aren't privy to. Ultimately, neither have proven anything yet so why should Chicago's GM suddenly say, "oh my God, I screwed up, I wish I had that pick back". That's absurd. Every GM knew the talent Kuznetsov possessed. 25 of them still passed on him. 25 of them preferred a different player. Would some change their mind now? Sure, it's possible, but suggesting that it's a foregone conclusion is ridiculous. As an example, if a GM's rationale for passing on Kuznetsov was that he felt it unwise to invest a first round pick in a Russian playing in Russia, that isn't going to change now that Kuznetsov is putting up great point totals in Russia.
The reasons for those picks are made on information. The more information the better the accurate the judging the talent of the pick. The more time the more information and therefore preferences change.

"Proven anything" is your opinion. Some gms might think doing good in say a tournament might actually "prove something".

Not everyone knew the talent player x possessed because then every draft would be perfect and no mistakes would ever be made.

Your last sentence is pretty lol. Yes russians are a risk and yes the pick was risky but he definitely looks like a better player than before the draft and therefore the risk is still there but the reward is much higher. If he say put up god like numbers in russia you dont think that would suddenly change if teams woulda taken him higher or not?

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02-22-2011, 01:02 AM
  #263
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brandinho View Post
An emoticon? What a brilliant argument!

There seems to be this myth on HF that the complexion of a draft changes dramatically after 6 months or a year or even two years. On an objective level, what Kuznetsov is doing in the KHL is a hell of a lot more impressive than what, for example, Kevin Hayes is doing in the NCAA. But Chicago had their reasons for selecting Hayes over Kuznetsov, reasons you or I aren't privy to. Ultimately, neither have proven anything yet so why should Chicago's GM suddenly say, "oh my God, I screwed up, I wish I had that pick back". That's absurd. Every GM knew the talent Kuznetsov possessed. 25 of them still passed on him. 25 of them preferred a different player. Would some change their mind now? Sure, it's possible, but suggesting that it's a foregone conclusion is ridiculous. As an example, if a GM's rationale for passing on Kuznetsov was that he felt it unwise to invest a first round pick in a Russian playing in Russia, that isn't going to change now that Kuznetsov is putting up great point totals in Russia.
Going to use another caps prospect, John Carlson, picked 27th, also picked later then he should of been, but for a different reason. After his post-draft year, I'm sure many GMs were wishing they drafted him before 27th.

It would have changed GMs minds, it's risk vs reward, boom or bust. Before the draft he wasn't used as a key player on many ocasions, post draft he was, and that's when he really started to shine. More GMs are willing to risk drafting a potential 90+ point Russian, then a 60-70 point Russian.

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02-22-2011, 02:41 AM
  #264
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TRASHCAT View Post
The reasons for those picks are made on information. The more information the better the accurate the judging the talent of the pick. The more time the more information and therefore preferences change.

"Proven anything" is your opinion. Some gms might think doing good in say a tournament might actually "prove something".

Not everyone knew the talent player x possessed because then every draft would be perfect and no mistakes would ever be made.

Your last sentence is pretty lol. Yes russians are a risk and yes the pick was risky but he definitely looks like a better player than before the draft and therefore the risk is still there but the reward is much higher. If he say put up god like numbers in russia you dont think that would suddenly change if teams woulda taken him higher or not?
You honestly believe that GMs were lacking information on Kuznetsov before he was drafted? That's kind of ridiculous.

When I say "proven anything", I'm talking about in the NHL. Kuznetsov has not proven anything in the NHL. That's nothing to hold against him, of course, but twenty years from now, it won't matter how he played in the WJC or in the KHL. If he doesn't come over and have success in the NHL, it'll be a failed pick for Washington.

There's nothing "lol" about my last sentence. It's a hypothetical reason why a GM might not want to take a Russian with a first round pick. If you're Ottawa, for example, and you've been burned by Russians staying in/going back to Russia in the past, it could be a valid reason. After all, they forfeited the ability to draft Tarasenko for Rundblad and Tarasenko was rated even higher than Kuznetsov.

Quote:
Originally Posted by backs4mvp
Going to use another caps prospect, John Carlson, picked 27th, also picked later then he should of been, but for a different reason. After his post-draft year, I'm sure many GMs were wishing they drafted him before 27th.

It would have changed GMs minds, it's risk vs reward, boom or bust. Before the draft he wasn't used as a key player on many ocasions, post draft he was, and that's when he really started to shine. More GMs are willing to risk drafting a potential 90+ point Russian, then a 60-70 point Russian.
It might have, it might not have. I think the issue here is that a lot of people on HF think prospect values fluctuate more dramatically than they actually do. GMs don't just make picks for fun, their jobs are on the line as a result of the decisions they make. Of course, they make mistakes but a first round pick has a lot riding on it. A GM who is putting a lot on the line with every high pick is probably going to be pretty firm in their decision and unlikely to change it after one year, barring something crazy like a guy jumping straight to the NHL and winning the Calder. While the community here might like to talk about prospect values as if their stocks constantly increasing and decreasing in value, GMs are going to have a considerably more longterm view of a prospect.

For the record, I thought Kuznetsov was a steal on draft day and I do think he went too late. There are a number of players I'd take him over. But that's not what I'm arguing.

Actually, this whole line of discussion stemmed from one simple comment about an idiotic statement an individual made about Kuznetsov's downside. So with that said, I don't really care to go on about this subject any more. I've said what I want to say, if you disagree then we'll just have to agree to disagree.

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02-22-2011, 03:02 AM
  #265
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i have to say you brandinho try really hard.. too bad your argument (about draft position) is absolutely hopeless, and it's not worth taking the time to prove something so obvious.

btw, i'm sure Forsberg had proved exactly nothing to you before starting his NHL career.

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02-22-2011, 07:45 AM
  #266
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Yeah, you're so completely wrong.

100% chance that if the draft were held tomorrow, Kuznetsov goes a lot higher.

You realize that his WJC and performance after put him into the top 5 prospects in THN's Future Watch, right? You know, the ranking that's based on the opinions of NHL scouts?

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02-22-2011, 08:21 AM
  #267
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Quote:
Originally Posted by romao View Post
Interesting, that 18 years old Malkin also scored exactly 32(12+20) points in the premier Russian hockey league(at that time it called RSL), but it took for him more games - 52.
Well to be fair Malkin also played in the RSL when it was much lower scoring (although one could also argue lesser talent pool). He finished 21st in league scoring whereas Kuznetsov isnt even in the Top 50. Still an incredible season for Kuznetsov, a definite rising star, but he'll have to really explode if he wants to be mentioned on the same level as Evgeni Malkin prior to coming over (to the point where hes thought of as one of the best two or three players not in the NHL).

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02-22-2011, 08:41 AM
  #268
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NobodyBeatsTheWiz View Post
Yeah, you're so completely wrong.

100% chance that if the draft were held tomorrow, Kuznetsov goes a lot higher.

You realize that his WJC and performance after put him into the top 5 prospects in THN's Future Watch, right? You know, the ranking that's based on the opinions of NHL scouts?
I'd agree with the assessment that Kuznetsov is a prospect who simply should have been taken much higher than he was.

But Brandinhois absolutely correct in his assessment. Kuznetsov has obviously had a season which is historically very high ranking. But to an extent, we already knew of the talent Kuznetsov had. Anybody with the ability to assess talent knew Kuznetsov was a pretty special player. Im assuming many teams on talent alone had him ranked very highly. So thus we must ask the question why did he fall? He fell because rightly or wrongly (I think the Russian factor as a whole is overrated, you simply most have a good understanding of the character himself) because of his nationality. Teams like Ottawa, Nashville or Columbus just aren't likely to be taking to what they percieve as massive risks which in the past have failed for them. This also applies to Tarasenko who in my eyes should have been taken Top 5, but also fell. Teams are scared.

6/7 months has passed. Kuznetsov is exceeding expectations, but im sure the expectations of Tarasenko and Kuznetsov were that they would do well this year anyway, which they both are. The GM's who passed on them likely knew this. The two main factors why GMs passed on them ; their nationality and playing style (some teams may simply have wanted a different stylistic player) still exist. So therefore it begs the question why would they change picks now? There are probably a few GMs who might already be questioning their choices a little, but not to the extent where they would re-select a different guy yet IMO.

For the record, i wanted Kuznetsov instead of Howden. I thought Kuznetsov was a Top 10 talent and think Kuznetsov is the perfect example of how the draft isn't actually a selection of the best talents in numerical linear order.

As for comparing Kuznetsov to Malkin, it is difficult. Kuznetsov has clearly two different seasons ; his solid 1st half and his explosive 2nd half. His World Junior performance and his second half performance probably rank as the best prospective performance by a player outside the NHL (including CHL/AHL) this year. One has to determine which we value more. Seeing as the 2nd half is the most recent, i'd weigh that more heavily than the 1st half. Kuznetsov probably won't be another Malkin, but i don't think its farfetched to say he compares pretty well against him and he can be a dominant NHL player in his own right.

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02-22-2011, 09:14 AM
  #269
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well, in my sim league draft, I picked 24th and was surprised that both Etem and Kuznetsov were still on the board. I chose Etem, and I somewhat wish I had chosen Kuznetsov, but these things change so quickly. I don't think it is decided yet which pick was better, because it is only one year in. Look at Chris Stewart, he looked like a nobody two years ago, now he has emerged as a good player. Or look at a guy like Chris Higgins, who looked like he'd be a real player and then just fizzled out. Who would have guessed that Plekanec would emerge as the best of Higgins, Plekanec, and Perezhogin when the three came up as rookies?

Or think of Max Gratchev, who was rated real high a couple years back on that future watch, but has now stalled. But then think of Sergei Kostitsyn, who looked like he might not get another NHL contract, but is now doing quite well in Nashville.

Bottom line, who knows what's gonna happen. Definitely Kuznetsov looks good right now, and maybe he turns into another Caps star. But maybe Etem keeps working hard and hitting the weights, and takes his game to the next level. In any talk of projection, there are gonna be a lot of maybes.

It looks like our sim league won't continue, so if I did make a mistake, it might not matter.

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02-22-2011, 09:17 AM
  #270
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PensFan101 View Post
Well to be fair Malkin also played in the RSL when it was much lower scoring (although one could also argue lesser talent pool). He finished 21st in league scoring whereas Kuznetsov isnt even in the Top 50. Still an incredible season for Kuznetsov, a definite rising star, but he'll have to really explode if he wants to be mentioned on the same level as Evgeni Malkin prior to coming over (to the point where hes thought of as one of the best two or three players not in the NHL).
I don't want to say that Kuz is better than Malkin because his stats is better. It's simply interesting stats and nothing else.
Actually in the second season after the draft Malkin was already a point-per-game player and skated for the national team at the Winter Olympics. So you're right, Kuz will have to explode to reach that level.

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02-22-2011, 03:06 PM
  #271
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brandinho View Post
You honestly believe that GMs were lacking information on Kuznetsov before he was drafted? That's kind of ridiculous.

When I say "proven anything", I'm talking about in the NHL. Kuznetsov has not proven anything in the NHL. That's nothing to hold against him, of course, but twenty years from now, it won't matter how he played in the WJC or in the KHL. If he doesn't come over and have success in the NHL, it'll be a failed pick for Washington.

There's nothing "lol" about my last sentence. It's a hypothetical reason why a GM might not want to take a Russian with a first round pick. If you're Ottawa, for example, and you've been burned by Russians staying in/going back to Russia in the past, it could be a valid reason. After all, they forfeited the ability to draft Tarasenko for Rundblad and Tarasenko was rated even higher than Kuznetsov.


.
This is a ridiculous argument. Yes they were lacking information. If you dont have a time machine you aint going to know how well a player is going to do. They didnt see how well he would do in the WJC. The more any player plays the more information they have on a player. You cant take one snapshot of a players talent on draft day and predict how talented that player would become. You act like the GM's already know what they need to know on draft day. But on draft day they are just forcasting based on previous information how that player develops.

Nobodies talking about NHL success, but if a prospect has success outside the NHL it tends to i dunno look favorably on the prospect.

You take a risk on a russian because on the off chance he comes over here it would be well worth the investment. You dont pass on a Malkin or a Ovechkin because they are too talented to not take the risk.

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02-22-2011, 03:32 PM
  #272
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I don't think there's any doubt that Kuznetsov's stock has risen significantly in the eyes of the scouting community since he was drafted. I honestly don't know how you can argue otherwise. The guy dominated the medal rounds of the WJC, and put up 17 goals and 32 points as an 18 year-old in the KHL.

Significant rise in stock amongst scouting community => higher draft position in a re-draft.

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02-22-2011, 03:43 PM
  #273
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Quote:
Originally Posted by J17 Vs Proclamation View Post
Kuznetsov has obviously had a season which is historically very high ranking. But to an extent, we already knew of the talent Kuznetsov had. Anybody with the ability to assess talent knew Kuznetsov was a pretty special player. Im assuming many teams on talent alone had him ranked very highly. So thus we must ask the question why did he fall? He fell because rightly or wrongly (I think the Russian factor as a whole is overrated, you simply most have a good understanding of the character himself) because of his nationality. Teams like Ottawa, Nashville or Columbus just aren't likely to be taking to what they percieve as massive risks which in the past have failed for them. This also applies to Tarasenko who in my eyes should have been taken Top 5, but also fell. Teams are scared.

As for comparing Kuznetsov to Malkin, it is difficult. Kuznetsov has clearly two different seasons ; his solid 1st half and his explosive 2nd half. His World Junior performance and his second half performance probably rank as the best prospective performance by a player outside the NHL (including CHL/AHL) this year. One has to determine which we value more. Seeing as the 2nd half is the most recent, i'd weigh that more heavily than the 1st half. Kuznetsov probably won't be another Malkin, but i don't think its farfetched to say he compares pretty well against him and he can be a dominant NHL player in his own right.
To be fair, in the first half (closer to 2/3rd's) of the season, Kuznetsov was playing maybe 10 minutes a game, post WJC, his icetime went to about 18 minutes a game. GMs may of seen the skill, but they didn't know how it'd translate with increased responsibilities, and playing in key situations at the highest non-NHL levels. Some players may look great playing 10 minutes a game, but increase that time to 18 minutes, and they may flounder. While others will flourish with the increase in ice time.

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02-25-2011, 03:07 AM
  #274
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What's next for him? MHL?

should require a loan to a better league (SEL?) to get some chances for the WCH me think.
Bykov couldn't use the junior league excuse anymore

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03-17-2011, 09:24 AM
  #275
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http://www.sports.ru/hockey/84794836.html

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Both our leagues - the KHL and MHL - is now so rapidly developing that in a year or two I might not want to go to the NHL
Surprise, surprise for the Caps fans.

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