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2009-10 "Earned" Standings

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01-22-2010, 08:08 AM
  #1
JT Dutch*
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2009-10 "Earned" Standings

... OK, one thing right off the bat: I hate the shootout. I think it’s almost completely un-hockey. But the majority of fans throughout the NHL arenas seem to love it, so it’s apparently a necessary evil.

What I hate even more is the way the NHL treats the shootout from a statistical basis. Why? Because it completely skews the team and the league’s real numbers. Some teams look better than they really are, some teams look worse.

But -- I love the NHL playoffs. I think it’s the best, toughest, most grueling tournament in sports. And, I have to jog the distant recesses of my memory here, but I remember how I felt when the Kings actually participated in them.

Since it’s clear the Kings have a chance to finally qualify for them once again, what I want to know is this: Just how good are the teams, WITHOUT the shootout? Playoff games are decided by pure hockey; no gimmicks, no points for losing, play until there’s a winner. So what I wanted to do is look at each team’s results from a pure hockey standpoint. Who are the best teams? Who are the luckiest teams? Who are the best offensive and defensive teams? I want to see all of this in a league standings format.

All shootout games have been switched to ties. All shootout wins and losses have been removed from each team’s record. The points are calculated the old-fashioned way: two for a win, one for a tie, zero for a loss. The extra goals scored and goals allowed that the NHL adds on from shootouts have been removed. I call these the 2009-10 “Earned” Standings. I don’t know how to chart-code in HTML so this is in screen-grab PNG format:



From this, you can see a few things, especially in the West. For starters, the Canucks have a sensational team, probably the 4th best team in the NHL. You can also see that there’s a clear “big three” in the West, three teams with not only the best offenses in the conference, but the best defenses. You can see that Nashville and Phoenix are fortunate to have the records they have right now.

It’s also clear that the Kings’ W-L-T record in these standings is right where it should be, based on the fact that they’ve only scored three more goals than they’ve allowed. The Kings, based on merit, should probably be ranked sixth in the conference, albeit not by much. They’re tied with Dallas for 5th in the West in offense, and they’re 8th in the West in defense.

If the Kings were to actually finish with the 6th seed in the West, they’re almost certain to be playing Vancouver in the first round – and that means Roberto Luongo and the Sedins. They haven’t had a lot of luck with the Canucks, losing twice in regulation and once in the shootout. The Canucks’ goalies have an amazing .966 save percentage against the Kings this season – which is fluky, even for guys like Luongo. It’s also interesting to note that in two of the three games, the Kings were playing the second game of back-to-backs, which wouldn’t happen in the playoffs. The Canucks, by comparison, have never been on the back end of a back-to-back when playing the Kings. That might make a difference.

Anyway, I welcome any comments or suggestions on how to improve this.

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01-22-2010, 10:43 AM
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Defgarden
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I was thinking about this for a long time, but never got around to crunching the numbers. Thank you for this. My guess was that the standings wouldn't change all that much, maybe with the exception of a few teams. Anyways, thank you for this.

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01-22-2010, 11:23 AM
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mbar
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Thank you so much for crunching these numbers. i've been too lazy to do it myself. Interesting to see that it doesn't change too much in the standings.

I don't think the league will ever get rid of shootouts (unfortuneately) but I'm hopeful at some point they'll switch to the following point system:

Real win/ OT win 3 points
Shootout win 2 points
shootout loss 1 point
real loss/ot loss 0 points.

I'd love to see the standings presented under this scenario.

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01-22-2010, 11:46 AM
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Flour Child
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The shootout is necessary because of the abuse of the one point for ties.

Keep the shoutout, eliminate the loser point and watch the number of shootouts plummet.

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01-22-2010, 12:20 PM
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Defgarden
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It's not a loser point! It's simply a bonus point for a meaningless shootout!

There's no perfect way to go about it though. If you go back to ties, OTs become boring. If you keep shootouts, it cheapens the entire game, though it is more exciting to watch. It's like, imagine if the Kings are sitting tied for 8th with a tie breaker after their 82nd game, and the team we're tied with ties their game with 10 seconds left, then goes to a shootout and wins because the other team is way out of a playoff spot and their goaltender is sniffing glue. I'd throw up.

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Old
01-22-2010, 06:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JT Dutch View Post
... OK, one thing right off the bat: I hate the shootout. I think itís almost completely un-hockey. But the majority of fans throughout the NHL arenas seem to love it, so itís apparently a necessary evil.
IMHO, the shootout is better than ending the game in a tie.

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01-22-2010, 06:49 PM
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RAZZIE King
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I'd rather see a 0-0 tie than have it ruined by a shootout...

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01-22-2010, 07:11 PM
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I remember before the shootout there were a rare (very rare) times that a team needed 2 points or needed to make sure the other team got zero points and they would pull the goalie in OT. When it happened it was the last game of the season and an OT tie meant no playoffs.

Other than that OT was played not to lose the one point, and not played to get 2. Teams would both go into prevent defense and try not to get injured.

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01-22-2010, 08:52 PM
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Shootouts are great when you win and they mean nothing when you lose. If you don't think shootouts mean anything look at the fans and the players their all into it. Only the coaches hate the shootout because it goes against everything they strategies for. Its like playing a stalemate game of chess then flipping a coin to see who wins.

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01-23-2010, 01:09 AM
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I prefer the shootout. I never liked ties. Either keep OT going or have the shootout.

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01-23-2010, 03:57 AM
  #11
MollerManor
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3 points for a win, 1 for an OT loss.

See what the standings would be then.

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01-23-2010, 03:58 AM
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kingsholygrail
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MollerManor View Post
3 points for a win, 1 for an OT loss.

See what the standings would be then.
Not a lot different. People have tried it.

I don't understand the logic behind making one type of win better than another type of win. Both are wins.

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01-23-2010, 04:17 AM
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Kurrilino
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The whole overtime stuff stink............

What they are doing is to slow down the 3rd period at even games for the last 10 minutes because both teams try to secure 1 point.
After that they don't open up to prevent from giving up 1 extra point and gamble on the shootout...........


Easy solution.........
Regular season games
Eliminate the 2 points.
Give away just 1 point for the winner............
0 Points for a tie
0 points for a loser
No overtime

A) a Tie: That will force both teams to play offense.
B) Trailing: The leading team will play more defense and the trailing team will play all out offense because they need at least 2 goals. The defending team would fight for their lifes because a tie means 0 Points.

That would create a complete new game.....
No slow downs and the last 10 minutes would be the most entertaining thing on earth.....

Just reward a victorious team.........
Even a 0-0 game would be absolutely entertaining in the end.

The playoff stay as they are.......20 Mintes Overtimes sudden death.



........... but this will never happens because the poor loser team
did the best and deserves 1 point because of sportsmanship.............

A very good man said: Losing starts at #2


Last edited by Kurrilino: 01-23-2010 at 04:24 AM.
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01-23-2010, 04:18 AM
  #14
MollerManor
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So, it still sounds cool.

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01-23-2010, 04:18 AM
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kingsholygrail
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kurrilino View Post
The whole overtime stuff stink............

What they are doing is to slow down the 3rd period even games the last 10 minutes because both teams try to secure 1 point.
After that they don't open up to prevent from giving up 1 extra point and gamble on the shootout...........


Easy solution.........
Regular season games
Eliminate the 2 points.
Give away just 1 point for the winner............
0 Points for a tie
0 points for a losser
No overtime

A) a Tie: That will force both teams to play offense.
B) Trailing: The leading team will play more defense and the trailing team will play all out offense....

That would create a complete new game.....
No slow downs and the last 10 minutes would be the most entertaining thing on earth.....

Just reward a victorious team.........

The playoff stay as they are.......20 Mintes Overtimes sudden death.
That sounds stupid. No points without a regulation win? Why? At that point, you might as well just go to a W-L system and get rid of points entirely.

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01-23-2010, 04:25 AM
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Kurrilino
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kingsholygrail View Post
That sounds stupid. No points without a regulation win? Why? At that point, you might as well just go to a W-L system and get rid of points entirely.
Exactly............
the sense is not to make the teams comfortable with a tie.....

I can't see a winner or a loser in a tie game..............
so, why to give a winner point

If you are not able to win a game........... you don;t deserve a point, period.
I promise you the fans would love it.............

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01-23-2010, 09:55 AM
  #17
Saevel
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbar View Post
I don't think the league will ever get rid of shootouts (unfortuneately) but I'm hopeful at some point they'll switch to the following point system:

Real win/ OT win 3 points
Shootout win 2 points
shootout loss 1 point
real loss/ot loss 0 points.
Why this has not been implemented already is beyond me. Makes no sense that some games are worth more than others.

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01-23-2010, 05:56 PM
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kingsholygrail
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Originally Posted by Saevel View Post
Why this has not been implemented already is beyond me. Makes no sense that some games are worth more than others.
Because there's no rational reason why one type of win should be valued higher over another. If the shootout is part of the game, then teams need to consider the shootout as part of things "to be good at". The only teams that truly whine about the shootout are the teams that lose.

Hell, if your team sucks at the shootout, then maybe winning in regulation or OT is more important to you.

Aside from the shootout, 5:00 OT is just not enough time. This isn't basketball.

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01-23-2010, 06:04 PM
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This is great it really shows how bad the bottom three teams really are, good job thanks!

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02-07-2010, 11:49 AM
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JT Dutch*
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... Figured I would update this, with a little more info.


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02-07-2010, 11:53 AM
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^ ummm...what is that? We have more than 67 points.

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02-07-2010, 12:20 PM
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^ ummm...what is that? We have more than 67 points.
... The explanation for what I'm doing is in the original post of the thread.

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02-07-2010, 01:17 PM
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Interesting ... thxx jt dutch,

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02-07-2010, 02:16 PM
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The Black1963
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Originally Posted by JT Dutch View Post
... Figured I would update this, with a little more info.

Dude, with you and your love for numbers/stats, I'm thinking you're either an actuary or an underwriter, am I correct?

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02-07-2010, 02:41 PM
  #25
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I hate ties. It's not a win or a loss, it just...is. I'm not sure if I like using a shootout to determine the game, but games cannot end in ties.

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