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Old
02-02-2010, 09:45 AM
  #1
GAGLine
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Looking Ahead

Knowing Glen Sather, it's hard to believe that he is done tinkering. I think we can expect at least 1 more deal before the deadline.

However, I am going to write this on the assumption that he won't be trading anyone else. The only player I can see him possibly moving would be Rozsival, but I don't think it will happen until the offseason. More likely he will trade a pick for a UFA rental, a la Antropov last year.

We have a little cap relief now for next year, but that isn't money to be used to acquire Kovy (or any other UFA). That money is needed to re-sign our RFAs.

I would give Girardi 2 years / 5 mil. I'm sure some think that's too high, but he's arbitration eligible. I think it will take that much.

For Staal, I would give him 3 options:

2 yrs/4 mil
4 yrs/12 mil
6 yrs/24 mil

For argument's sake, let's say he takes the 4 year deal.

We have 2 UFAs that have to be replaced or re-signed (Prospal and Jokinen). If Kovy is the target this summer, then we will probably put a rookie in the other spot, let's say Weise. But how do we afford Kovy?

Well, I think it's a forgone conclusion that we will trade Rozy at some point this offseason. Again, for the sake of argument, let's say we can trade him without taking salary back, and replace him with Sangs. Assume also that the cap will go up by 1 million. This is what our team would look like next year, minus Kovy:

AUTO-GENERATED CAPGEEK.COM LINES
FORWARDS
Marian Gaborik ($7.500m) / Chris Drury ($7.050m) / Ryan Callahan ($2.300m)
Sean Avery ($1.938m) / Brandon Dubinsky ($1.850m) / Donald Brashear ($1.400m)
Aaron Voros ($1.000m) / * Enver Lisin ($0.850m) / Artem Anisimov ($0.822m)
Dale Weise ($0.700m) / * Brandon Prust ($0.600m) / Brian Boyle ($0.525m)
DEFENSEMEN
Wade Redden ($6.500m) / * Marc Staal ($3.000m)
* Daniel Girardi ($2.500m) / Matt Gilroy ($1.750m)
Michael Del Zotto ($1.087m) / Bobby Sanguinetti ($0.855m)
GOALTENDERS
Henrik Lundqvist ($6.875m) / Chad Johnson ($0.850m)
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS
ROSTER: 20; PAYROLL: $49.952m; CAP ROOM: $8.311m BONUSES: $0.463m

I think we'd have to bury Redden in order to fit Kovy's cap hit. Even if we get creative, I can't see us getting him at a 7 mil cap hit. So let's say we replace Redden with Heikkinen or McD.

AUTO-GENERATED CAPGEEK.COM LINES
FORWARDS
Marian Gaborik ($7.500m) / Chris Drury ($7.050m) / Ryan Callahan ($2.300m)
Sean Avery ($1.938m) / Brandon Dubinsky ($1.850m) / Donald Brashear ($1.400m)
Aaron Voros ($1.000m) / * Enver Lisin ($0.850m) / Artem Anisimov ($0.822m)
Dale Weise ($0.700m) / * Brandon Prust ($0.600m) / Brian Boyle ($0.525m)
DEFENSEMEN
* Marc Staal ($3.000m) / * Daniel Girardi ($2.500m)
Matt Gilroy ($1.750m) / Michael Del Zotto ($1.087m)
* Ilkka Heikkinen ($0.875m) / Bobby Sanguinetti ($0.855m)
GOALTENDERS
Henrik Lundqvist ($6.875m) / Chad Johnson ($0.850m)
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS
ROSTER: 20; PAYROLL: $44.327m; CAP ROOM: $13.936m BONUSES: $0.463m

Looks pretty good. We can sign a cheap vet as 7th dman (though our blue line will be incredibly young and inexperienced). We can probably get Kovy signed for a cap hit somewhere between 8 and 9 million.

It is imperative, however, that we don't tie up the rest of that cap room beyond next year. If we want to sign someone with it, fine, but it can't be for more than 1 year.

In 2011, our only UFAs are Brashear and Voros, a total of 2.4 million off the books. Both players will have to be replaced, costing a minimum of 1 million. Dubinsky, Callahan and Anisimov will all be RFAs (Dubi and Cally arb eligible).

If we do it right, we should have 5-6 mil in cap space to give Dubi, Cally and Anisimov raises, which should be enough. If not, then we can buy out the last year of Drury's contract and save another 3.4 million.

The whole thing I think will hinge on what we do with Redden. We have to get him completely off the books, or we can forget about Kovy.

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Old
02-02-2010, 09:52 AM
  #2
Riche16
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It may all depend on what happens in the next few games... if Joki sparks us a bit and we climb the standings a little, Sather may keep Rozi and try to add a late piece.

If the opposite happens (the more likely scenario given the Olympics and Hank/Gabby playing too much... the youth not used to playing this many games (MDZ already showing signs of fatigue)... Ollie not fitting in or just fading away... secondary inconsistent scoring staying that way) I see Sather trying to move Rozi. Once that happens he can use his ace in the hole by sending Redden to Hartford and Kovy is in play.

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Old
02-02-2010, 10:02 AM
  #3
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I would rather have two good forwards then one for too much money based on our history with huge contracts. How about this:

Rene Bourque @3 million per
Alex Frolov @ 3.5 to 4...


total is only about 7 million, if you are tight on it, get rid of Redden just the same.

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02-02-2010, 10:05 AM
  #4
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Anybody thinking there won't a DVD showing the joys of joining the New York Ranger organization arriving at Mr. Kovalchuk's doorstep at 12:01 AM July 1, 2010 is fooling themselves.

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02-02-2010, 10:06 AM
  #5
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I can see Staal getting 4/12, something in that neighborhood.That is provided he doesn't get the 'Dubinsky Delay' from Cigar Boy and end up getting offer sheeted by someone who knows CB is painted into a cap induced corner.

It always amazes me how he'll throw money and NTC's around on July 1st like a drunken sailor on shore leave, yet when he's dealing with his own people he's dragging his feet and acting like he's getting a root canal with no anesthesia.

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Old
02-02-2010, 10:13 AM
  #6
LetsGoBlueshirts
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I would love to see Staal locked up for long term but I think 6/24 and 4/12 seem a tad high for him just yet. I think he gets a 2 year deal for 3.5-4 (similiar to Dubi) and then he gets a longer deal. Just purely my opinion.

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Old
02-02-2010, 10:56 AM
  #7
Hockey2000nyr
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LetsGoBlueshirts View Post
I would love to see Staal locked up for long term but I think 6/24 and 4/12 seem a tad high for him just yet. I think he gets a 2 year deal for 3.5-4 (similiar to Dubi) and then he gets a longer deal. Just purely my opinion.
a tad high for him? you said a 2 year deal with 3.5-4 mil. lets go to the calculator

24 million over a period of 6 years equals 4 mil per year

12 million over a period of 4 years equals 3 mil per year

8 million over a period of 2 years equals 4 million per year.

I try to sign Staal to the 6 year deal because by the time that contract is over he will be in his prime and looking for the true big pay day.

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Old
02-02-2010, 11:00 AM
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Staal in no way has developed or shown the consistency to get a deal longer then 2-3 years. His up and down play and lack of being physical to makes him a number 2 not a 1.

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Old
02-02-2010, 11:02 AM
  #9
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Originally Posted by Hockey2000nyr View Post
a tad high for him? you said a 2 year deal with 3.5-4 mil. lets go to the calculator

24 million over a period of 6 years equals 4 mil per year

12 million over a period of 4 years equals 3 mil per year

8 million over a period of 2 years equals 4 million per year.

I try to sign Staal to the 6 year deal because by the time that contract is over he will be in his prime and looking for the true big pay day.
I think he meant 3.5-4 mil total over 2 years, so 1.75-2 mil per year.

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Old
02-02-2010, 11:05 AM
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true true, i think staal will get in the 3 million range per year for maybe 3 years, then signed to a longer contract after that if he shows he has fully developed. If im staal i try to sign for 2 years, and time it right for when drury and rozy's contracts come to an end and the rangers have big money in that offseason.

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Old
02-02-2010, 11:07 AM
  #11
GAGLine
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LetsGoBlueshirts View Post
I would love to see Staal locked up for long term but I think 6/24 and 4/12 seem a tad high for him just yet. I think he gets a 2 year deal for 3.5-4 (similiar to Dubi) and then he gets a longer deal. Just purely my opinion.
Staal is not arbitration eligible, so we could give him a deal similar to Dubi's (hence the 2 yrs/4 mil offer).

With the 4 year deal, he'd be giving up his arbitration years, so we'd have to pay him more (4 yrs/12 mil).

With the 6 year deal, he's be giving up his arbitration years and 2 years of UFA, which is why I put it at 4 mil per (6 yrs/24 mil), which may still be a little on the low side.

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02-02-2010, 12:01 PM
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Whats with the whole "buy out" situation after this season? I have so many conflicting reports, I have no clue what to believe right now.

I read that once the collective bargaining agreements ends this summer, we are able to buy out anyone we want without risk of it hurting the cap. Then I read that teams might agree to allow each team a single "get out of contract free card." Well not so much free, but buy someone out without the cap hit.

I am really hoping at the end of this season, we are buying out Redden. I am pulling for Jokinen, and would like to see him resign, and Kovy be on the books as well.

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02-02-2010, 12:23 PM
  #13
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Not sure how some of you feel about this but here's what I would do.

13 year deal (he's turning 27 in April) would bring him to 40 years old when the deal expires knowing full well that he will not be the same player then that he is now.

Total contract would be 97.5 million.

Years 1 thru 5 - 10 million per season

Years 6 thru 10 - 7 million per season

Years 11 thru 13 - 4.1666 per season.

The cap hit would be 7.5 million with the first 10 years paying him 85 million

My expectation is that he probably retires before the contract is complete.

He gets what he wants, we get what we want at a salary that is very manageable for the Rangers at a cap hit that is more thna manageable for a legit superstar player.

Flame away

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Old
02-02-2010, 12:28 PM
  #14
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Redden should be dumped this offseason. No if or buts about it.

Then keep Rozi and deal him down the line. His contract gets better and better with time -- and he have actually been one of our better D's lately.

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02-02-2010, 01:12 PM
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Originally Posted by MadHookUp View Post
Whats with the whole "buy out" situation after this season? I have so many conflicting reports, I have no clue what to believe right now.

I read that once the collective bargaining agreements ends this summer, we are able to buy out anyone we want without risk of it hurting the cap. Then I read that teams might agree to allow each team a single "get out of contract free card." Well not so much free, but buy someone out without the cap hit.

I am really hoping at the end of this season, we are buying out Redden. I am pulling for Jokinen, and would like to see him resign, and Kovy be on the books as well.
It already ended and was extended.

As far as the second part goes I think there are more teams that would vote against that than vote for it. If they do that then all the teams which saved cap space will no longer have any edge over the other teams who didn't.

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Old
02-02-2010, 01:28 PM
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Staal is 23 years old. We wont give him 4 years because that would make him UFA in the summer of 2014 because hed be 27. 3 years 9m is what i see him getting.

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02-02-2010, 01:31 PM
  #17
GAGLine
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Originally Posted by MadHookUp View Post
Whats with the whole "buy out" situation after this season? I have so many conflicting reports, I have no clue what to believe right now.

I read that once the collective bargaining agreements ends this summer, we are able to buy out anyone we want without risk of it hurting the cap. Then I read that teams might agree to allow each team a single "get out of contract free card." Well not so much free, but buy someone out without the cap hit.

I am really hoping at the end of this season, we are buying out Redden. I am pulling for Jokinen, and would like to see him resign, and Kovy be on the books as well.
It had been speculated that the league might impose an amnesty buyout, such that 1 player (or possibly more) could be bought out without any cap penalties. This was discussed back when it was thought that the cap might drop significantly in 2010.

Bettman has said recently that the cap situation is closely tied to the value of the Canadian dollar and, at its given rate at the time, the cap was projected to go up by 1 million. So unless the Canadian dollar falls quite a bit between now and June, don't expect any amnesty buyouts.

As far as Jokinen is concerned, we can't afford him unless he's willing to play for Prospal type money (1.15 mil), which I doubt. Not if we have any intention of going after Kovalchuk.

To get Kovalchuk (while retaining our RFAs), we have to:

1) Let Prospal walk
2) Let Jokinen walk
3) Trade Rozy with little or no money coming back.
4) Bury Redden or trade him with little or no money coming back.
5) Possibly buy out Drury's final year

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02-02-2010, 02:00 PM
  #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GAGLine View Post

To get Kovalchuk (while retaining our RFAs), we have to:

1) Let Prospal walk - YUP
2) Let Jokinen walk - Right again
3) Trade Rozy with little or no money coming back - No, you don't
4) Bury Redden or trade him with little or no money coming back - The more likely option.
5) Possibly buy out Drury's final year - Not necessary
Again, the cap is expected to go up this coming year by $1.8 million. By not keeping Prospal, waiving Redden and replacing Girardi with Sanguinetti, you have enough cap space to 1) sign Staal to a two-year deal in the area of $2.25-$2.5 million per, 2) sign Kovalchuk to a deal with a cap hit up to $10 million, 3) sign a 3rd pairing veteran D-man to pair with Sanguinetti.

Your roster would look as follows:


Christensen/Dubinsky/Gaborik
(Kovalchuk)/Anisimov/Lisin
Avery/Drury/Callahan
Voros/Boyle/Prust
Brashear

Staal/Gilroy
MDZ/Rozsival
UFA/Sanguinetti

Henke
Johnson

And, depending upon the price paid for the 3rd pairing D-man, you still end up with at least $1 million in available space.

Lisin and Christensen are placeholders until the Grachevs, Stepans and Kreiders are ready.

Brashear and Voros come off next year, so you have additional money for Callahan and Dubinsky when their contracts are up at the end of 2010-1, while in 2011-2, Rozsival and Drury are gone, and you have $12 million now opened up.

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02-02-2010, 02:25 PM
  #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jas View Post
Again, the cap is expected to go up this coming year by $1.8 million. By not keeping Prospal, waiving Redden and replacing Girardi with Sanguinetti, you have enough cap space to 1) sign Staal to a two-year deal in the area of $2.25-$2.5 million per, 2) sign Kovalchuk to a deal with a cap hit up to $10 million, 3) sign a 3rd pairing veteran D-man to pair with Sanguinetti.

Your roster would look as follows:


Christensen/Dubinsky/Gaborik
(Kovalchuk)/Anisimov/Lisin
Avery/Drury/Callahan
Voros/Boyle/Prust
Brashear

Staal/Gilroy
MDZ/Rozsival
UFA/Sanguinetti

Henke
Johnson

And, depending upon the price paid for the 3rd pairing D-man, you still end up with at least $1 million in available space.

Lisin and Christensen are placeholders until the Grachevs, Stepans and Kreiders are ready.

Brashear and Voros come off next year, so you have additional money for Callahan and Dubinsky when their contracts are up at the end of 2010-1, while in 2011-2, Rozsival and Drury are gone, and you have $12 million now opened up.
Okay, maybe I'm missing something here but even with Kovalchuk in your line up I would not be happy at all. Beyond Gaborik and Kovalchuk, who else is going to put the puck in the net?? Best case scenario Kovalchuk and Gaborik both score 60 goals, and that's extremely best case, who else is going to score? You have Lisin on the second line, who has 6 goals and 7 assists through 49 games, you have Christensen, a waver wire pick up with 3 goals and 6 assists through 33 games on the first line?? Please. If you think we can't score now, wait until that line up hits the ice.

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Old
02-02-2010, 02:43 PM
  #20
GAGLine
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Originally Posted by jas View Post
Again, the cap is expected to go up this coming year by $1.8 million. By not keeping Prospal, waiving Redden and replacing Girardi with Sanguinetti, you have enough cap space to 1) sign Staal to a two-year deal in the area of $2.25-$2.5 million per, 2) sign Kovalchuk to a deal with a cap hit up to $10 million, 3) sign a 3rd pairing veteran D-man to pair with Sanguinetti.

Your roster would look as follows:


Christensen/Dubinsky/Gaborik
(Kovalchuk)/Anisimov/Lisin
Avery/Drury/Callahan
Voros/Boyle/Prust
Brashear

Staal/Gilroy
MDZ/Rozsival
UFA/Sanguinetti

Henke
Johnson

And, depending upon the price paid for the 3rd pairing D-man, you still end up with at least $1 million in available space.

Lisin and Christensen are placeholders until the Grachevs, Stepans and Kreiders are ready.

Brashear and Voros come off next year, so you have additional money for Callahan and Dubinsky when their contracts are up at the end of 2010-1, while in 2011-2, Rozsival and Drury are gone, and you have $12 million now opened up.
This is your lineup, with Christensen, Lisin and Prust getting paid the same as this year:

AUTO-GENERATED CAPGEEK.COM LINES
FORWARDS
* Kovalchuk ($10.000m) / Marian Gaborik ($7.500m) / Chris Drury ($7.050m)
Ryan Callahan ($2.300m) / Sean Avery ($1.938m) / Brandon Dubinsky ($1.850m)
Donald Brashear ($1.400m) / Aaron Voros ($1.000m) / Artem Anisimov ($0.822m)
* Enver Lisin ($0.790m) / * Erik Christensen ($0.750m) / Brian Boyle ($0.525m)
* Brandon Prust ($0.500m)
DEFENSEMEN
Michal Rozsival ($5.000m) / * Marc Staal ($2.250m)
Matt Gilroy ($1.750m) / Michael Del Zotto ($1.087m)
Bobby Sanguinetti ($0.855m)
GOALTENDERS
Henrik Lundqvist ($6.875m) / Chad Johnson ($0.850m)
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS
ROSTER: 20; PAYROLL: $55.092m; CAP ROOM: $2.091m BONUSES: $0.383m

At the very least, we need 1 more dman, which means we'd only have enough cap space for injuries.

The following year, only Voros and Brashear are coming off the books. They both have to be replaced, so you're only saving at best 1 mil. Maybe we'd have 2 mil to give raises to Dubi, Cally and Anisimov. That won't be enough.

We can save an extra 2.5 mil by trading Rozy instead of Girardi. Rozy is 6 years older and on the downside of his career. I can't imagine why you'd rather trade Girardi. Oh wait, yes I can. He didn't defend Gaborik so he's a POS now. I forgot.

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02-02-2010, 02:49 PM
  #21
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I used to like Girardis game a lot, but he has soured. If the Rangers make the playoffs I will be keeping a close eye on his game. But as of right now I think it would serve the Rangers well to use that money elsewhere. Girardi will most certainly go to arbitration like some of the younger players have in the past. The way the process works he will get more than what he should and I think i'd rather look elsewhere and use some of that money to secure Staal and another forward who can actually put the puck in the net, maybe through trade and not FA where Slats overpays...

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02-02-2010, 02:53 PM
  #22
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Originally Posted by GAGLine View Post
This is your lineup, with Christensen, Lisin and Prust getting paid the same as this year:

AUTO-GENERATED CAPGEEK.COM LINES
FORWARDS
* Kovalchuk ($10.000m) / Marian Gaborik ($7.500m) / Chris Drury ($7.050m)
Ryan Callahan ($2.300m) / Sean Avery ($1.938m) / Brandon Dubinsky ($1.850m)
Donald Brashear ($1.400m) / Aaron Voros ($1.000m) / Artem Anisimov ($0.822m)
* Enver Lisin ($0.790m) / * Erik Christensen ($0.750m) / Brian Boyle ($0.525m)
* Brandon Prust ($0.500m)
DEFENSEMEN
Michal Rozsival ($5.000m) / * Marc Staal ($2.250m)
Matt Gilroy ($1.750m) / Michael Del Zotto ($1.087m)
Bobby Sanguinetti ($0.855m)
GOALTENDERS
Henrik Lundqvist ($6.875m) / Chad Johnson ($0.850m)
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS
ROSTER: 20; PAYROLL: $55.092m; CAP ROOM: $2.091m BONUSES: $0.383m

At the very least, we need 1 more dman, which means we'd only have enough cap space for injuries.

The following year, only Voros and Brashear are coming off the books. They both have to be replaced, so you're only saving at best 1 mil. Maybe we'd have 2 mil to give raises to Dubi, Cally and Anisimov. That won't be enough.

We can save an extra 2.5 mil by trading Rozy instead of Girardi. Rozy is 6 years older and on the downside of his career. I can't imagine why you'd rather trade Girardi. Oh wait, yes I can. He didn't defend Gaborik so he's a POS now. I forgot.
Where did I write that? That's your presumption. I just think that Girardi is at best a 2nd pairing D-man on a mediocre team, and do not want to commit long term money to him when I believe there are at least two defenseman with more upside, (McDonagh and Sanguinetti), that should be in NY in the next two years.

As for saving $2.5 million by dealing Rozsival, as opposed to Girardi, are you not including any salary that has to come for another team to take on Rozsival's cap hit? I seriously doubt the Rangers will be able to move Rozsival for just picks, whereas I could see Girardi bringing back a low 2nd round pick. However, if you can dump Rozsival for a 3rd pairing D-man, who makes under $1.5 million, and sign Girardi to a two-year deal for no more than $2.2 million per, so be it.

I also had Prust and Lisin getting 10% qualifiers.


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02-02-2010, 02:56 PM
  #23
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Originally Posted by HenrikTheKing30 View Post
Okay, maybe I'm missing something here but even with Kovalchuk in your line up I would not be happy at all. Beyond Gaborik and Kovalchuk, who else is going to put the puck in the net?? Best case scenario Kovalchuk and Gaborik both score 60 goals, and that's extremely best case, who else is going to score? You have Lisin on the second line, who has 6 goals and 7 assists through 49 games, you have Christensen, a waver wire pick up with 3 goals and 6 assists through 33 games on the first line?? Please. If you think we can't score now, wait until that line up hits the ice.

That's pretty much the same lineup we currently have, (before the deal with Calgary), just replacing Prospal with Kovalchuk, and you expect it to score less than the current lineup?

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02-02-2010, 03:02 PM
  #24
nyranger61494
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Before the Olympics, the Rangers have 6 games--@ LA, Capitals, Devils, Predators, @ Penguins, and Tampa. If the Rangers don't win more than 2 of those games, or earn more than 4 points, we should be sellers.

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02-02-2010, 03:24 PM
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The Dark Passenger
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jas View Post
That's pretty much the same lineup we currently have, (before the deal with Calgary), just replacing Prospal with Kovalchuk, and you expect it to score less than the current lineup?
I'm simply saying that no one in that line up will score more than 20 goals besides Kovi and Gaborik. We go from a one man show to a two man show. If you are going to have players like that they need help.

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