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Kovalchuk/Salmela to NJ for Oduya/Bergfors/Cormier/1st; teams swap 2nd round picks

View Poll Results: What is the most you would give Kovalchuk as a Free Agent?
1-5 years, 7 Mil per 18 6.27%
1-5 years, 8 Mil per 33 11.50%
1-5 years, 9 Mil per 20 6.97%
1-5 years, 10 Mil per 5 1.74%
1-5 years, Max dollars 5 1.74%
5-10 years, 7 Mil per 11 3.83%
5-10 years, 8 Mil per 82 28.57%
5-10 years, 9 Mil per 47 16.38%
5-10 years, 10 Mil per 25 8.71%
5-10 years, Max dollars 23 8.01%
Don't want Kovlachuk 11 3.83%
Other (specify below) 7 2.44%
Voters: 287. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
02-03-2010, 12:59 PM
  #76
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I'd be willing to bet $ that kovy gets a front loaded cap cheat contract if he hits UFA July 1.

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02-03-2010, 01:00 PM
  #77
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Originally Posted by Jersey Girl View Post
Oh my goodness, I still feel like the person who is trying to get the keys away from the drunk guy, but here goes...

Here is what we have committed in salary for next year (in cap hit):

Gaborik 7.5 million
Drury 7.05
Callahan 2.3
Avery 1.938
Dubinsky 1.85
Brashear 1.4
Voros 1
Anisimov 0.822
Boyle 0.525
Redden 6.5
Rozsival 5
Gilroy 1.659
Del Zotto 1.087
Lundqvist 6.875
Johnson 0.52

Total of $46.026 million committed. And what does that buy us? One foundation goalie, one backup goalie, one superstar forward, five second/third line forwards, two fourth line forwards, and four defensemen who all have question marks.

That's it.

OK, so we add Kovalchuk at $10 million/year cap hit. Now we're maxed out on the cap, we have the same as the above except we have two superstar forwards, with very marginal playoff history between them, considering how long they've collectively been in the league. Not to mention the above average injury risk that still exists with Gaborik.

But at that max cap hit we have no Olli Jokinen, no Vinny Prospal, no Enver Lisin, no Erik Christensen, no Brandon Prust, no Marc Staal and no Dan Girardi. And no money to pay for them, or for a replacement if you can't afford them.

As 'generational' as Kovalchuk may be, it would be preferable to go into games with more than ten forwards and four defensemen. Just not a good idea.

So assuming we keep Staal, how much is he going to cost cap hit wise? $3 million? $4 million? Let's split the difference and say $3.5. How much is Girardi going to cost? His cap hit is $1.55 million right now, let's be conservative and say $2 million. So in order to fill out your blue line you are now $5.5 million over the cap.

What about the forwards? Let's say we replace Jokinen, Prospal, Lisin, Christensen and Prust with a bunch of guys with a $1 million cap hit each. Or they make $1 million. You lose Jokinen for sure, MAYBE you can keep the others. Maybe not. Either way, you have an extra $5 million added to your cap, so now you're $10.5 million over the cap.

How do you reconcile that? Send Redden to the minors? I'll believe it when I see it, but let's say you do just that. $6.5 million off the cap. Find another sucker for Rozsival or Drury in a trade? OK, I'll believe that when I see it too. But let's say it happens. Don't bring up Brashear, his cap hit is not going anywhere.

But with Redden and Rozsival gone, you save $11.5 million off the cap, so now you're $1 million under the cap...and you have four defensemen. Replacing them with even marginal players (or bringing someone up from Hartford will put you back over the cap.

So here is what we look like, a little bit over the cap:

Kovalchuk-Dubinsky-Gaborik
Avery-Drury-Callahan
Voros-Anisimov-$1 million player
Brashear-Boyle-$1 million player

Staal-Girardi
Del Zotto-Gilroy
$1 million player-$1 million player

That's not good. Ridiculously top heavy, and a terrible defense. Unable to sign any free agents except Kovalchuk, and unable to trade for any talent as well. And that's still slightly over the cap.

And that's assuming a perfect world, where everything goes perfectly...you are able to trade Rozsival, you send Redden down, YOU HAVE NO INJURIES, and the cap does not go down.

On top of all that, Callahan and Dubinsky come up for free agency the following year (as do Anisimov and Gilroy)...say goodbye to a total of $4.15 million cap hit for the two of them. Somebody else will need to go...or one of them will.

I'm shocked people are OK with this scenario.
I'm not sure I agree with your math - honestly it was hard to follow. Starting from scratch, here's what I come up with:

According to CapGeek, we have $10.7MM available for next year with 9 forwards, 4 defensemen and 2 goalies already under contract. If the cap goes up by $1.8MM as the media suggests, that's $12.5MM to acquire/re-sign 3 forwards and 2 dmen, not counting extras. Now, you bury Redden and trade Rozsie and you're up to $24MM to acquire 3 forwards and 4 dmen.

-$9MM for Kovy (this is the cap hit I selected in the poll), leaving $15MM for 2 forwards and 4 dmen.
-$3MM for Staal (bear in mind that Dubi got $1.7MM), leaving $12MM for 2 forwards and 3 dmen.
-$3MM for a forward (let's say - could easily be another dman at this salary) acquired in exchange for Rozsie, leaving $9MM for 1 forward and 3 dmen
-$2.5MM for Girardi (or a mid-level FA), leaving $6.5MM for 1 forward and 2 dmen
-$0.9MM to re-up Christensen, leaving $5.6MM for 2 dmen
-$0.9MM for one of our many dman prospects (who all have salaries in the $800-900K range), leaving $4.7MM for 1 dman
-$0.6MM to re-up Prust (which now gives you an extra forward), leaving $4.1MM for 1 dman
-$1.5MM for a respectable 3rd pairing dman

This leaves $2.6MM to sprinkle around the rest of the roster for upgrades over the players projected, to use for injuries or for a 7th dman. And that's a conservative number - I rounded up every fraction, assumed that Kovy doesn't get a Hossa-esque cap-circumventing deal, and assumed Staal got a healthy raise above what Dubi and Cally got in similar situations.

Roster:
Dubi - Christensen - Gabby
Kovy - Anisimov - $2.5MM guy
Avery - Drury - Callahan
Voros - Boyle - Prust
Brashear

Staal - Girardi
MDZ - Gilroy
Sanguinetti - Respectable 3rd pairing guy

The year after, our 2 least valuable guys - Brashear and Voros - come off the books and one of Grachev/Stepan is ready to step in (hopefully), freeing up another $1.5-2.0MM. The year after that, Drury comes off the books, leaving you all sorts of options. The cap would most likely go up in both years as well.

I don't think that's good enough to be a championship team next year, but it's certainly a PO contender and a basis on which to then build a Cup contender. Whether that would happen in the next 2-3 years all boils down to how well our prospects fulfill their promise (and how long it takes).


Last edited by BrooklynRangersFan: 02-03-2010 at 01:24 PM.
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Old
02-03-2010, 01:19 PM
  #78
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BrooklynRangersFan View Post
I'm not sure I agree with your math - honestly it was hard to follow. Starting from scratch, here's what I come up with;

According to CapGeek, we have $10.7MM available for next year with 9 forwards, 4 defensemen and 2 goalies already under contract. If the cap goes up by $1.8MM as the media suggests, that's $12.5MM to acquire/re-sign 3 forwards and 2 dmen, not counting extras. Now, you bury Redden and trade Rozsie and you're up to $24MM to acquire 3 forwards and 4 dmen.

-$9MM for Kovy (this is the cap hit I selected in the poll), leaving $15MM for 2 forwards and 4 dmen.
-$3MM for Staal (bear in mind that Dubi got $1.7MM), leaving $12MM for 2 forwards and 3 dmen.
-$3MM for a forward (let's say - could easily be another dman at this salary) acquired in exchange for Rozsie, leaving $9MM for 1 forward and 3 dmen
-$2.5MM for Girardi (or a mid-level FA), leaving $6.5MM for 1 forward and 2 dmen
-$0.9MM to re-up Christensen, leaving $5.6MM for 2 dmen
-$0.9MM for one of our many dman prospects (who all have salaries in the $800-900K range), leaving $4.7MM for 1 dman
-$0.6MM to re-up Prust (which now gives you an extra forward), leaving $4.1MM for 1 dman
-$1.5MM for a respectable 3rd pairing dman

This leaves $2.6MM to sprinkle around the rest of the roster for upgrades over the players projected, to use for injuries or for a 7th dman. And that's a conservative number - I rounded up every fraction, assumed that Kovy doesn't get a Hossa-esque cap-circumventing deal, and assumed Staal got a healthy raise above what Dubi and Cally got in similar situations.

Roster:
Dubi - Christensen - Gabby
Kovy - Anisimov - $2.5MM guy
Avery - Drury - Callahan
Voros - Boyle - Prust
Brashear

Staal - Girardi
MDZ - Gilroy
Sanguinetti - Respectable 3rd pairing guy

The year after, our 2 least valuable guys - Brashear and Voros - come off the books and one of Grachev/Stepan is ready to step in (hopefully), freeing up another $1.5-2.0MM. The year after that, Drury comes off the books, leaving you all sorts of options. The cap would most likely go up in both years as well.

I don't think that's good enough to be a championship team next year, but it's certainly a PO contender and a basis on which to then build a Cup contender. Whether that would happen in the next 2-3 years all boils down to how well our prospects fulfill their promise (and how long it takes).
You can also re-up Lisin as a placeholder, and not spend the $2.5 million on a 2nd line RW, not bring back Girardi and still retain Rozsival. There are many options. Prospal is getting his money from TB...maybe he sticks around for another year with a minimal raise. You could move Rozsival for a cheap 3rd pairing D-man.

Three priorities - 1) sign Kovalchuk, 2) re-sign Staal, amd 3) waive Redden...force his hand like they did with Kasparitis, and he could head off to Europe. The rest is window dressing.

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02-03-2010, 01:28 PM
  #79
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Looks like the we are willing to go 8-9 mil by this vote.

That won't get it done.....lets move on.

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02-03-2010, 01:30 PM
  #80
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jas View Post
You can also re-up Lisin as a placeholder, and not spend the $2.5 million on a 2nd line RW, not bring back Girardi and still retain Rozsival. There are many options. Prospal is getting his money from TB...maybe he sticks around for another year with a minimal raise. You could move Rozsival for a cheap 3rd pairing D-man.

Three priorities - 1) sign Kovalchuk, 2) re-sign Staal, amd 3) waive Redden...force his hand like they did with Kasparitis, and he could head off to Europe. The rest is window dressing.
Man, I really hope Sather is either reading this thread or has come to the same conclusions...

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02-03-2010, 01:35 PM
  #81
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#1. He in no way deserves more money than Crosby, Malkin and Ovechkin.
#2. Long contracts = death.
#3. He hasn't been in the top 5 in scoring since before the lockout.

I chose option #1. I could accept #2. No way I go longer than 5 years. I don't care that he'll be 31 or 32, I hate the idea of being tied to players for too long.

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02-03-2010, 01:36 PM
  #82
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We might not need the league max to get Kovy.

According to rumors, he denied the league maximum from Atlanta already. Does no one understand this? HE WANTS OUT OF ATLANTA.

I'm sure we can get him for around 8 mil per for the next 5-10 years. Especially with Gaborik and Lundqvist on this team, we become a real contender.

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02-03-2010, 01:37 PM
  #83
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jas View Post
You can also re-up Lisin as a placeholder, and not spend the $2.5 million on a 2nd line RW, not bring back Girardi and still retain Rozsival. There are many options. Prospal is getting his money from TB...maybe he sticks around for another year with a minimal raise. You could move Rozsival for a cheap 3rd pairing D-man.

Three priorities - 1) sign Kovalchuk, 2) re-sign Staal, amd 3) waive Redden...force his hand like they did with Kasparitis, and he could head off to Europe. The rest is window dressing.
Sooooo dump one bad contract so we can take on a longer and higher one in Kovalchuk? I don't believe anyone in the league is worth max contract except Sid Crosby and Alex Ovechkin.

Also why does everyone wanna load up the cap with fowards and have a rookie blueline next season? Dump Redden, dump Rozy and get Kovalchuk. Huh? This isn't the way to get better.

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02-03-2010, 01:38 PM
  #84
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Originally Posted by levski87 View Post
We might not need the league max to get Kovy.

According to rumors, he denied the league maximum from Atlanta already. Does no one understand this? HE WANTS OUT OF ATLANTA.

I'm sure we can get him for around 8 mil per for the next 5-10 years. Especially with Gaborik and Lundqvist on this team, we become a real contender.
I take from it that he wants out of Atlanta and wants the league max.

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02-03-2010, 01:38 PM
  #85
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Quote:
Originally Posted by levski87 View Post
We might not need the league max to get Kovy.

According to rumors, he denied the league maximum from Atlanta already. Does no one understand this? HE WANTS OUT OF ATLANTA.

I'm sure we can get him for around 8 mil per for the next 5-10 years. Especially with Gaborik and Lundqvist on this team, we become a real contender.
I didn't know contenders have no name defenses.

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02-03-2010, 01:43 PM
  #86
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5-10 years (more like 7 or 8) at 9 mill/per.

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02-03-2010, 01:54 PM
  #87
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I didn't know contenders have no name defenses.
So... you'd rather keep Rozsival and Redden, because they're "name" guys?

My projection assumed that in 2-3 years we'd be contenders, not this year. By that time, MDZ and Gilroy will have been in the pros for at least 3 years, Staal for 5 years and Girardi for 6 years (assuming that they're all still here). Heck, even Sanguinetti would be at the end of his second year. At SOME point they're not kids anymore, they're NHL vets in their own right...

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02-03-2010, 02:37 PM
  #88
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Originally Posted by DubiSnacks17 View Post
#1. He in no way deserves more money than Crosby, Malkin and Ovechkin.
Who said he is as good as any of these guys? He is probably the fourth best forward in the league that is coming up on unrestricted free agency right now so he has the leverage. As soon as these guys come up for FA they will surpass him contractually, that's how it works.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DubiSnacks17
#2. Long contracts = death.
When you overpay a mediocre player, sure it's a bad thing to have a long contract. When you have an incredible superstar goalscorer, it's a completely different animal.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DubiSnacks17
#3. He hasn't been in the top 5 in scoring since before the lockout.
Kovy scores goals. He isn't surrounded by a great supporting cast where he will get cheap assists like some other players in the league do. He is a pure sniper, and when you look at his production scoring goals it is astounding.

2003-2004 tied for the league lead in goal scoring.
2004-2005 lockout
2005-2006 fourth in the league in goal scoring
2006-2007 8th in the league in goal scoring
2007-2008 2nd in the league in goal scoring
2008-2009 4th in the league in goal scoring
2009-2010 currently 5th in the league in goal scoring.

As a matter of fact, if you take his gpg average he is 14th all time in the league, and 2nd amongst active players. Take into account that he still may improve a bit and he is just now entering his prime.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DubiSnacks17
I chose option #1. I could accept #2. No way I go longer than 5 years. I don't care that he'll be 31 or 32, I hate the idea of being tied to players for too long.

I hate the idea of being tied to Wade Redden, I sure wouldn't mind being tied up with Kovy.

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02-03-2010, 02:43 PM
  #89
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5 years at 8M
Something along those lines.

Not sure if thats enough though.

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02-03-2010, 02:44 PM
  #90
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100 Million LOL

6 Years - 8.75 - 52.5 Million.

See if he wants to come here.

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02-03-2010, 02:46 PM
  #91
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Other....something crazy, long, and frontloaded that takes him to retirement ala Hossa & Pronger. Front load it heavy so no one else can afford that much because no one else has as much money as NYR. Then tack on as many additional years as you want to make it cap friendly, such as...

12, 12, 12, 8, 8, 8, 8, 6, 6, 4, 1, 1

It pays 9.7m for 7 years, frontloaded; 8.4 over 10 years with expected retirement at age 37.

Total contract term is 12 years and a little over 7m cap hit. Heck sign him for 14 years at an additional 750k per like Hossa an the cap hit reduces to 6.25.

The bidding will be stiff but NY has money like no other team and few can afford to blow 36M on a player in the first 3 years of his deal without completely blowing their budget. Giving out Hossa & Pronger type contracts may be BS but it's playing within the rules and the Kovalchuk sweepstakes is game you want to win.

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02-03-2010, 02:50 PM
  #92
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The NHL should allow signing bonuses based on cost of living for the cities. That would ease cap situations for high market places like NY, Philly, MTL, etc

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02-03-2010, 03:17 PM
  #93
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vipernsx View Post
Other....something crazy, long, and frontloaded that takes him to retirement ala Hossa & Pronger. Front load it heavy so no one else can afford that much because no one else has as much money as NYR. Then tack on as many additional years as you want to make it cap friendly, such as...

12, 12, 12, 8, 8, 8, 8, 6, 6, 4, 1, 1

It pays 9.7m for 7 years, frontloaded; 8.4 over 10 years with expected retirement at age 37.

Total contract term is 12 years and a little over 7m cap hit. Heck sign him for 14 years at an additional 750k per like Hossa an the cap hit reduces to 6.25.

The bidding will be stiff but NY has money like no other team and few can afford to blow 36M on a player in the first 3 years of his deal without completely blowing their budget. Giving out Hossa & Pronger type contracts may be BS but it's playing within the rules and the Kovalchuk sweepstakes is game you want to win.
Too bad paying 12 million in a year isn't legal.

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02-04-2010, 09:40 AM
  #94
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First, under no circumstances trade for him this year, wait for FA.


This is about the max I would go.

I think this works with the salary cap structure.
12yrs 84Mil, 7mil cap hit

4yrs-11mil=44mil
4yrs-7mil= 28mil
2yrs-4mil= 8mil
1yr-2.5mil=2.5mil
1yr-1.5mil=1.5mil

Thats 72mil over the first 8yrs of the contract, or 9mil per, taking him to 35yo. If he wants to continue playing beyond that so be it, you hope he can still produce at a relatively high level. But with 4yrs and 12mil remaining it should be a moveable contract if needed, of course you would need him to agree to waive his NMC (which will be a must for anyone to get him signed).

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02-04-2010, 09:49 AM
  #95
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$9.0M / 8 Years

Dude's a franchise changer (as you can see in ATL), would want him locked up, ASAP. 9.0M would get it done.

Really this is a cap hit though. The contract would be ridiculously frontloaded.

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02-04-2010, 09:52 AM
  #96
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Honestly I hate to say it...but BIG DEAL...it's Kovalchuk...wow. Like there has never been a 50 goal scorer in the history of the NHL.
Top 3 player in the league. And he's 26

Rangers fans have a HUGE problem of getting caught up with one player.
Like you are doing right now with Callahan. Listen I like Callahan, but he couldn't hold Ilya's jock when it comes to ability. Ranger fans also overrate intangibles. So callahan plays hard, that means I shouldn't point out that he's a third liner?

And anyway...Kovalchuk, for how good he is, has never won jack.
What else has he had? Gretzky had Messier, did Gretzky win anything when he was in LA? No. Could Crosby win without Malkin, no. Michael Jordan had Pippen. In no team sport can you single handedly win a championship.

We aren't going to win anything right now. And if you trade away all of our young assets...who is going to develop and complete the puzzle to win a cup. You trade away all our good young guys and we are right back in the same position we have now. Except we might score 30 more goals a year.
I agree somewhat here. I don't think we should be trading ALL of our assets away. But, we have a stockpile of about 6 or 7 solid prospects we can afford to trade. Some of them won't pan out, some of them will. However, none of them are going to have Ilya's talent. Now, granted it's not guaranteed that we sign him. But, it puts us in a much better position. Then when 2012 roll around we have 3 superstars in the prime of their career with these prospects already coming up and competing for a cup. We would have 4 or 5 years of having an awesome team.

And whoever called him GENERATIONAL....please...get a hold of yourself. Bobby Orr, Gordie Howe, Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemiux were generational...Ilya Kovalchuk is not.
He is 26, and he is an insanely talented player. Those guys are only called generational after the fact. Obviously you can't judge a player based on his first 8 seasons. But in today's day and age when you consistently score over 40 goals (5 in a row, going on 6) with the bigger goalie pads and more concentration on defense. You are pretty close to generational. He CAN be a generational player if he continues.

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02-04-2010, 09:53 AM
  #97
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12 + 12 + 12 + 12 + 12 + 7 + 7 + 5 + 4 + 3 + 1 + 1 = 88

7.33 cap hit

That's more sketchy than Hossa's contract though.

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02-04-2010, 09:54 AM
  #98
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Originally Posted by pwoz View Post
12 + 12 + 12 + 12 + 12 + 7 + 7 + 5 + 4 + 3 + 1 + 1 = 88

7.33 cap hit

That's more sketchy than Hossa's contract though.
12 mil is more than max for a single season.

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02-04-2010, 09:55 AM
  #99
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Someone said he hasn't been in the top five in scoring post lockout? WHAT?

52 goals TWICE since the lockout.

The other two years? 42 and 43 goals.

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02-04-2010, 09:56 AM
  #100
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Posts: 2,489
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by N9Y4R View Post
12 mil is more than max for a single season.
Oh, so 11.3 I guess... hmm..

11.3 x6 = 67.8

Then 4 years @ 5m ~ 88

That'd be 8.8m cap hit for 10 years.. maybe add a couple years to get it in the 7's.. either way, Kovy wants 120m over 10-12 years and he will not sign an extension until July 1st at the earliest.

Nevermind!

pwoz is offline  
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