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NHL Draft Order Based on Mathematical Elimination

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02-08-2010, 09:26 AM
  #1
Mathletic
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NHL Draft Order Based on Mathematical Elimination

http://www.bepress.com/cgi/viewconte...3&context=jqas

NHL Draft Order Based on Mathematical
Elimination

Adam M. Gold

Abstract

The NHL determines draft order from a lottery that favors teams that are lowest in the standings.
Losing can help a franchise acquire a coveted prospect, which encourages fans to cheer
against their favorite teams. Draft order based on mathematical elimination would force the teams
that performed poorest into a highly competitive atmosphere. The teams that are eliminated earliest
would instead have more games to earn the top picks. If substandard teams are to survive in
mediocre markets, the injustice of incentives for losing must be eradicated.

...

5 Conclusion
The National Hockey League (NHL) formula that considers the reverse stand-
ings to determine draft order triggers logical reasoning that can destroy emo-
tional attachments and fanaticism, without which hockey teams cannot thrive.
Losing can help a franchise acquire a higher draft pick, which encourages fans
to cheer against their favorite team. Franchises that endure poor seasonal
performance should not accept considerable rejection and departure from sup-
porters. Although the teams with the most losses receive the highest draft
picks, the promise of future success by losing in the present creates a false
sense of security. This current formula yields the distressing paradox where
success and failure become synonymous. The NHL should use my formula to
create competitive draft orders and inspire fans with passion and optimism.

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02-08-2010, 09:40 AM
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MatthewT
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ahh man, Ottawa would have had 3rd overall last year with this proposed draft order. Matt Duchene would look nice in a sens uniform

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02-08-2010, 09:44 AM
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intresting

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02-08-2010, 09:45 AM
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Darth Bangkok
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I don't want to register to read that. But is it saying something like once a team is eliminated from making the playoffs, it joins a new 'competition'? Like whichever team has the most points AFTER elmination gets the top pick? If so, I think I might like that or something similar rather than reverse standings like it is now. It would force teams to build better teams and make them more accountable. Perrenial rebuilds won't be acceptable anymore.

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02-08-2010, 11:10 AM
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So can we have a do over of last years draft

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02-08-2010, 11:12 AM
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Terrible idea.

The system is fine just the way it is.

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02-08-2010, 11:15 AM
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Tried half-assly to find this through the university databases for you guys but failed.

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02-08-2010, 11:22 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by C For Choke View Post
Terrible idea.

The system is fine just the way it is.
Oiler fan?

I'd like it if something like this is brought in. Teams like Phoenix and Nashville would get the best players in previous years because they refused to stink up the place.

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02-08-2010, 11:22 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Darth Bangkok View Post
I don't want to register to read that. But is it saying something like once a team is eliminated from making the playoffs, it joins a new 'competition'? Like whichever team has the most points AFTER elmination gets the top pick? If so, I think I might like that or something similar rather than reverse standings like it is now. It would force teams to build better teams and make them more accountable. Perrenial rebuilds won't be acceptable anymore.
if that's the case it doesn't seem right. my oilers suck bad and should be eliminated first. they are likely to keep sucking as the team isn't very good. they shouldn't be penalized for being the same bad team they were before they were mathematically eliminated.

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02-08-2010, 11:26 AM
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Used to be the Leafs fans were the ones whining the most about the draft order. Funny how I don't hear any of them saying such now.

The system in place works much better then any of the **** proposed by fans of teams that are in the #11 spot.

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02-08-2010, 11:32 AM
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Originally Posted by jimmythescot View Post
Oiler fan?

I'd like it if something like this is brought in. Teams like Phoenix and Nashville would get the best players in previous years because they refused to stink up the place.
LOL. Don't insult me by calling me an Oilers fan.

This system advocates taking away "incentives for losing." If this system had been in place, teams like the Penguins would be long gone. Should the Penguins not receive high (in both number and quality) draft picks simply because they were the worst team in the league for a number of years?

Teams like Nashville and Phoenix are just barely good enough to make the playoffs, so we should reward them instead of teams like the Islanders who need the picks? Why? This system does nothing but ruin franchises and make gloaters out of fans of teams who weren't fortunate enough to draft guys like Stamkos, Crosby, etc.

The current draft system helps teams that need it by giving them the best possible prospect to rebuilt their franchise. This proposed system does not.

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02-08-2010, 11:57 AM
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This system has good intentions but bad results. In the end, any team that starts on the bottom, stays on the bottom. The only people with a chance at upward mobility are the ones that start in the middling range, the ones that will miss the playoffs by just a couple of games.

Say Edmonton is the first to go with nine games left in the season. Once a sufficiently more capable team gets eliminated, the Ducks for example, they'll be more likely to get the higher picks. Why? Because even though Edmonton has more games to possibly win, the Ducks are more likely to win games after elimination, which would favor them in the draft instead of Edmonton, which could really use the new talent.

If it ain't broke, don't fix it. The system in place works. It's not perfect, but it works.

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02-08-2010, 12:04 PM
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It should go #17 in the league (the team who just misses the playoffs) has the best chance at the #1 pick; then #18, #19, etc. etc.

Then as teams are eliminated from the playoffs they start filling out the remainder of the picks.

This way, teams are always trying to make the playoffs.

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02-08-2010, 01:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by silverfish View Post
It should go #17 in the league (the team who just misses the playoffs) has the best chance at the #1 pick; then #18, #19, etc. etc.

Then as teams are eliminated from the playoffs they start filling out the remainder of the picks.

This way, teams are always trying to make the playoffs.
And what about teams that are just outright bad? The problem with this line of thinking is that the teams who need the top end talent the most, don't get it.

Oh and I believe that deliberate tanking is a myth made up by fans. Has there been any player or coach who has ever come forward and stated that they tanked a certain year? Any post retirement tell-all book?

Players and coaches tanking for the sake of getting a good draft pick is a farce. Look at the Edmonton Oilers.

- Pat Quinn doesn't have many years left in this business, I'm pretty sure he would like his name on the cup before he retires for good.

- Older vets like Ethan Moreau and Steve Staios are getting just that, older. I doubt they would be quite content receiving orders from management that some of their last years in the league will be spent in the basement with no chance on making a great final run. But it's all for the greater good of the team, right?

- Some people might say that the young guys don't mind tanking. They still have years left in their career, what's a few in the basement going to hurt? Maybe their next contract signing? In my opinion, the young players on teams are the most unlikely to tank because they have something to prove. They finally made it to the NHL, something they have dreamed of their entire life. "Hey congratulations on making to the NHL. Would you mind not playing your best for a season or two?"

I have watched every Oilers game this year. They are bad. They are so bad it's not even funny. To deprive this team (or any basement team) of top end talent because of some ridiculous myth would be a mistake.

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02-08-2010, 01:11 PM
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Its funny how all of a sudden Oilers are in line for a 1st overall pick and the Leafs are getting screwed and now we get all this talk about the draft order.... I can't say I recall seeing much of this last year...

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02-08-2010, 04:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OILNATION View Post
Its funny how all of a sudden Oilers are in line for a 1st overall pick and the Leafs are getting screwed and now we get all this talk about the draft order.... I can't say I recall seeing much of this last year...
there are similar threads every year, though this is the first time i've seen a formula like this. This has nothing to do with the oilers, dont flatter your team.

In past years, the 3 most popular stances have been:
1. leave it the way it is (by far the most popular), otherwise teams will be stuck in the basement for years.

2. #17 should get first overall, #30 should get 14 overall. Personally i think this is a terrible system, expansion teams and teams like the islanders, or pens would be stuck as bottom feeders forever until they hit a few lucky picks.

3. NBA style lottery; every non-playoff team should have a shot at top 5 picks, even if its a small shot. Teams should be able to move down more than just one spot (no guaranteeing a tanker the #2 pick).


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02-08-2010, 04:09 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OILNATION View Post
Its funny how all of a sudden Oilers are in line for a 1st overall pick and the Leafs are getting screwed and now we get all this talk about the draft order.... I can't say I recall seeing much of this last year...
Even more funny how not a single Leafs fan has posted in this thread (until now).

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02-08-2010, 04:14 PM
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I think the driving force here is to prevent intentional tanking. I mean, when a team is so far out by game 50 it's easy to just plummet and get some picks at the deadline. By semi-reversing it, teams have to compete or they will continue to fail.

The problem is differentiating between intentionally bad teams and actually bad teams. Those expansion year clubs had no hope but to flounder, where would they be without the top picks as compensation?

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02-08-2010, 04:20 PM
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The simple solution is just to reweigh the lottery system to let teams 1-5 get a more equal chance of getting the #1st overall, and even having teams 6-8 getting a slim chance as well.

Better yet, why not allow the draft lottery to determine the first 3 picks?

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02-08-2010, 04:22 PM
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Joey Moss
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Quote:
Originally Posted by C For Choke View Post
LOL. Don't insult me by calling me an Oilers fan.

This system advocates taking away "incentives for losing." If this system had been in place, teams like the Penguins would be long gone. Should the Penguins not receive high (in both number and quality) draft picks simply because they were the worst team in the league for a number of years?

Teams like Nashville and Phoenix are just barely good enough to make the playoffs, so we should reward them instead of teams like the Islanders who need the picks? Why? This system does nothing but ruin franchises and make gloaters out of fans of teams who weren't fortunate enough to draft guys like Stamkos, Crosby, etc.

The current draft system helps teams that need it by giving them the best possible prospect to rebuilt their franchise. This proposed system does not.
Always love the troll posts. Keep it up buddy.

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02-08-2010, 05:03 PM
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If I get the idea correctly, you enter a "race" for draft picks once you're mathematically eliminated. That doesn't meant that the #17 seed gets the first draft pick. The reasoning I think goes something along the lines that the worst teams will be mathematically eliminated first, and thus have a longer period of time to gather points towards the draft race. The idea, or hope, is that teams like Edmonton, Toronto, and Carolina will get in this race earlier, and once they're there they will be encouraged to keep on winning. On the other hand, teams that are close to a playoff spot all through the season will only get about 2-3 games to pick up points. This would still give the low seed teams the higher picks, but it would encourage them to try to win even though they can't get into the playoffs.

The "optimal" tank strategy with this system would be to loose early, and then turn it on once you get eliminated.

Did I understand the idea correctly?

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02-08-2010, 05:12 PM
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Originally Posted by Tumsh View Post
If I get the idea correctly, you enter a "race" for draft picks once you're mathematically eliminated. That doesn't meant that the #17 seed gets the first draft pick. The reasoning I think goes something along the lines that the worst teams will be mathematically eliminated first, and thus have a longer period of time to gather points towards the draft race. The idea, or hope, is that teams like Edmonton, Toronto, and Carolina will get in this race earlier, and once they're there they will be encouraged to keep on winning. On the other hand, teams that are close to a playoff spot all through the season will only get about 2-3 games to pick up points. This would still give the low seed teams the higher picks, but it would encourage them to try to win even though they can't get into the playoffs.

The "optimal" tank strategy with this system would be to loose early, and then turn it on once you get eliminated.

Did I understand the idea correctly?

That's what I got from it.

Its a secondary standings, for teams that don't qualify for the playoffs. Most points gets the 1st overall pick. Your wins start counting towards this standing soon as you're mathematically eliminated.

I like it.

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02-08-2010, 05:15 PM
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If there was any change to the lottery system, I'd say just pull balls for each spot all the way through, with the current rule of no more than 4 spots moving up in place.

It'd make for a better show on TV, rather than just drawing for the first spot and moving on then... plus it'd throw just enough randomness into the situation that tanking isn't a surefire 1st or 2nd pick.

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Old
02-08-2010, 05:50 PM
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at least make it like the nba please. 14 team lottery, top 3 picks chosen through it

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02-08-2010, 05:59 PM
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Kyle McMahon
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sevanston View Post
This system has good intentions but bad results. In the end, any team that starts on the bottom, stays on the bottom. The only people with a chance at upward mobility are the ones that start in the middling range, the ones that will miss the playoffs by just a couple of games.

Say Edmonton is the first to go with nine games left in the season. Once a sufficiently more capable team gets eliminated, the Ducks for example, they'll be more likely to get the higher picks. Why? Because even though Edmonton has more games to possibly win, the Ducks are more likely to win games after elimination, which would favor them in the draft instead of Edmonton, which could really use the new talent.

If it ain't broke, don't fix it. The system in place works. It's not perfect, but it works.
Wrong. If Edmonton is eliminated with nine games left and the Ducks say, two, it is still highly unlikely that Anaheim beats them out in this system. The Ducks would have a maximum of four possible points in this scenario, so the Oilers would simply have to pick up 4/18 possible points to keep pace with them.

I don't mind this idea. It would be a lot more exciting (for me, and presuamably other fans of the Oilers, plus the Hurricanes) than just cheering for the Oilers to continue losing until the end of the year to ensure they are dead last. The only problem is the varying strength of conferences. Lets pretend Edmonton and Carolina both have the same point total, which presumes both are equally bad. But the Oilers will be eliminated sooner than the Hurricanes due to the superior point total of the eighth place team in the west versus that of the east, and thus begin to accumulate points in the "lottery standings" sooner. Now, I don't have a problem with that, but some Hurricane fans might

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