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What will it take to get Hornqvist signed?

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Old
06-04-2010, 05:47 PM
  #1
token grinder
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What will it take to get Hornqvist signed?

my own speculation here, but I think the wings did us a favor with getting Holmstrom a sweetheart deal. these guys have the same game, holmstroms been doing the best for a long time. only thing horns has on his side is youth here. I really think this may drive horn to 2 million or less. well i hope anyway

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06-04-2010, 05:51 PM
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Holmstrom has already had his payday in the NHL. Not a good contract comparison at all.

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06-04-2010, 11:46 PM
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token grinder
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Quote:
Originally Posted by banana phone View Post
Holmstrom has already had his payday in the NHL. Not a good contract comparison at all.
if horn is looking for a 2 year deal it is. i think he needs to show consistancy before a fat offer. you do not reward a guy for one year-one year might i had where he was a healthy scratch 10-15 games in

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06-05-2010, 02:21 PM
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dulzhok
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It may help slightly. Hard to read what he's going to get.

I like him as a player, but I don't see him carrying a good scoring line. He's more of a great complementary player for a scoring line (like Holmstrom). A lot of things went his way this year, but I could easily see seasons of low 20's goal scoring wise.

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06-05-2010, 02:26 PM
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token grinder
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kinda what i was thinking. not many assists. good at being tough with soft hands. i dont think it is a 3-4 million dollar skillset right nnow

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06-05-2010, 03:23 PM
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Originally Posted by token grinder View Post
if horn is looking for a 2 year deal it is. i think he needs to show consistancy before a fat offer. you do not reward a guy for one year-one year might i had where he was a healthy scratch 10-15 games in
I agree, I think he's promising, but there's still a degree of risk for a one-time success story that has to be pricedin. There've been plenty one-hit wonders and Nashville can't afford to be saddled with a contract that they can't unload.

That said, I don't know enough about Hornqvist to say whether he's the real deal or not, but I don't think he can be paid that way yet. I'd expect something around $2.5M would be fair value over 3 years or so, and that might be at the high end.

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06-06-2010, 11:31 PM
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PredsV82
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do we even know if hornqvist has been around long enough for arbitration? and are all RFA's able to be tendered offer sheets? he's really only just barely more than a rookie...

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06-07-2010, 06:00 AM
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I know a player has to have at least four seasons before being eligible for arbitration, but players show sign their first NHL contract after the age of 20 have those four years reduced. I'm not sure how far, though, and how old was Horny when he signed? I want to say he was 20

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06-07-2010, 11:07 AM
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David Poile doesn't do arbitration, you just don't do it to him.

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06-07-2010, 12:40 PM
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MarkMM
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Originally Posted by PredsV82 View Post
do we even know if hornqvist has been around long enough for arbitration? and are all RFA's able to be tendered offer sheets? he's really only just barely more than a rookie...
I don't think he's been around long enough for arbitration, but he's definitely subject to an offer-sheet. Please Poile get this deal done, you don't want to lose him for a 2nd round pick or have to pay more than you can afford.

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06-07-2010, 01:44 PM
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Originally Posted by MarkMM View Post
I don't think he's been around long enough for arbitration, but he's definitely subject to an offer-sheet. Please Poile get this deal done, you don't want to lose him for a 2nd round pick or have to pay more than you can afford.
i'd take a 2nd for him. esp if his salary is north of 2 million bucks

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06-07-2010, 05:32 PM
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token grinder Im really surprised youd take a 2nd round pick for Hrnqvist instead of paying him 2M. I imagine there would be a lot of teams that would oblige you.

Only 18 players in the NHL scored more goals than Patric last season. 5 other players also had 30 goals. Of the 24 players in the NHL with 30 or more goals Patric was the only one who averaged less than 16 minutes/game. Only one player in the NHL had more game winning goals than Patric. Only 13 players had more SOG.

He led the team in goals, points (tied), shots on goal, game winning goals, power play goals, and plus/minus (+18). Hes the one player who can be counted on to go to the front of the net. As Crispy asked several times near the end of the season - how many points would Patric have had if you got an assist for screening the goalie?

I understand not wanting to sign Patric to a long term deal after one full season. And I dont have a clue or even a guess at what Patric will get. If its less than 2M great. But if the Preds let a 23 year old who just had the season Hrnqvist had go for a second round pick because they wont pay him 2M a year I dont even want to think about it.

If you were Poile and you want to give Patric up for a second round pick - I somehow think you'll hear your phone ringing.

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06-07-2010, 05:42 PM
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Um....Hornqvist is in the top 25 in forwards in goal scoring. #23 to be exact, he's worth more than a 2nd.

And Nashville will not trade him because he is exactly what Nashville needs, a cheap 30 goal scorer. Nashville only has two players who are top 90 in Goals; Erat and Hornqvist.

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06-07-2010, 06:24 PM
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2nd rd pick for Honrqvist is insane. I'm sure DP would've signed him for 2m yesterday if he could.

Actually, my concern with Poile is that he's being passive and just letting it sit.

I'd love a 5+ year a 3-3.5m. Would take a 2 year deal at 2-2.5m. When is he UFA?

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06-08-2010, 10:37 AM
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I just love it when the absence of a signing is taken to mean poile is on vacation, has his phone turned off, or is watching Andy Griffith reruns....


edit: hornqvist is 4 years from being a UFA

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06-08-2010, 12:02 PM
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token grinder
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so to go from 680k to 2 million is decent.

15,06,718 - $3,013,433 offer sheet is worth a second. I think if it is on the high end poile would consider not matching and taking the pick.

$3,013,433 - $4,520,150 gets you a first and a third. I would most def. let him walk and take the two picks

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06-08-2010, 12:33 PM
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dulzhok
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Originally Posted by PredsV82 View Post
I just love it when the absence of a signing is taken to mean poile is on vacation, has his phone turned off, or is watching Andy Griffith reruns....
It's his history of passivity that would lead me to speculate a more assertive GM would be doing more to get him signed. Can't say this with any certainty, but I will speculate.

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06-08-2010, 12:40 PM
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Originally Posted by token grinder View Post
so to go from 680k to 2 million is decent.

15,06,718 - $3,013,433 offer sheet is worth a second. I think if it is on the high end poile would consider not matching and taking the pick.

$3,013,433 - $4,520,150 gets you a first and a third. I would most def. let him walk and take the two picks
I wouldn't take either. It's our first draft pick to ever score thirty goals. EVER IN 12 YEARS. What makes you think some 2nd rd pick is going to score better than 30 goals 5 years from now? In ~20 2nd rd draft picks, we've had 1 impact player. I don't like those odds.

I don't think Hornqvist is our "chosen one" or anything, but I do think he's a pretty dang good player. And unfortunately, he's the best scorer we got.

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06-08-2010, 12:52 PM
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Probably the best comp out there is Grabovski, unfortunately. He got 3 year, 9m last year. He had 48 points to Horny's 51. However, he had 20g to Horny's 30.

I don't think they can use a contract like Legwand as a comp, cause we'd be toast. However, even if you can' officially use it, you can bet there's a feeling of unfairness we you are the leading goal scorer and you're getting paid 5 times less than guys like Legwand/Dumont. It's acceptable on a rookie contract, but he could really play hardball with us if he wanted to.

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06-08-2010, 01:21 PM
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Originally Posted by dulzhok View Post
It's his history of passivity that would lead me to speculate a more assertive GM would be doing more to get him signed. Can't say this with any certainty, but I will speculate.
Maybe Poile is waiting for Hornqvist to call him

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06-08-2010, 01:24 PM
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If DP isn't willing to go above $2 million, then by all means offer him on the open market for a trade, teams will pay more than a 2nd to get him.

Burrows as a comparison went from $525,000 to $2 million a year for 4 years after a 28 goal, 51 point season. This was in 08-09 and was seen as one of the best value deal in the league. The guaranteed term of the deal was seen as the compensation for him taking a lower value deal than he could have gotten on the open market and allowing Vancouver to avoid offer-sheets. Also, just a few years prior to that deal he was an undrafted ball-hockey player, so he was probably just happy to be in the NHL!

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06-08-2010, 01:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkMM View Post
If DP isn't willing to go above $2 million, then by all means offer him on the open market for a trade, teams will pay more than a 2nd to get him.

Burrows as a comparison went from $525,000 to $2 million a year for 4 years after a 28 goal, 51 point season. This was in 08-09 and was seen as one of the best value deal in the league. The guaranteed term of the deal was seen as the compensation for him taking a lower value deal than he could have gotten on the open market and allowing Vancouver to avoid offer-sheets. Also, just a few years prior to that deal he was an undrafted ball-hockey player, so he was probably just happy to be in the NHL!
Exactly, longer term deal here benefits the player so the player has to give back a little on salary over the course of the contract for the security he's being given with a guaranteed contract. Likewise, a shorter term deal is more beneficial to the organization and the team as a result has to be willing to pay a higher salary due to the lack of security afforded the player.

There is a middle ground to be found. It's just gonna take some time...

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06-08-2010, 01:46 PM
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Another comparable here that I'm sure both sides of the equation are keeping their eyes on is Bryan Little in Atlanta.

Little scored 6 goals in 48 games during his rookie season, then scored 30 goals and added 21 assists in 79 games his second year. Unfortunately for him and luckily for the Thrashers, he was still on his ELC and followed up his 30 goal season with a 13 goal, 21 assist performance this season.

Was Little's 30 goal season a fluke? Not according to his junior numbers, but this year he did not achieve the same level of performance.

It'll be very interesting to monitor how these two players are negotiated with this summer. IMO, Hornqvist coming off his 30 goal season has slightly more leverage, but the Preds will be pointing to Little just down the highway in Atlanta as a cautionary tale as well...

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06-08-2010, 02:18 PM
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dulzhok
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Exactly, longer term deal here benefits the player so the player has to give back a little on salary over the course of the contract for the security he's being given with a guaranteed contract. Likewise, a shorter term deal is more beneficial to the organization and the team as a result has to be willing to pay a higher salary due to the lack of security afforded the player.

There is a middle ground to be found. It's just gonna take some time...
Why do long term deals benefit the player? In the case of Burrows, it wasn't beneficial. He could be making a lot more money than he is now if he signed a 2-year deal vs a 4-year deal.

A lot of time players settle for less money on short term deals so they can outplay their contract, and get a bigger pay day.

Honestly, it's matter of knowing your players and identifying what their long term role is going to be. Short term deals allow it play itself out; long term deals are a prediction game. Sometimes the organization gets the better end of the deal (Burrows, Parise), sometimes it's about right (Mike Richards), and sometimes the player get the better end of the deal (Vanek, Dumont, Drury, Legwand, Horcoff, etc).

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06-08-2010, 03:00 PM
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So what's fair market value for a guy who's willing to go to the net, who scored 30 goals and is a general pest to the other team without really getting penalized in doing so? Someone thru out the stats for what he did and there were under 20 guys who scored 30 or more last year and he did it with the least amount of time on the ice.

Here's a guy who failed the year before, went back home in the offseason, worked his tail off to become a permanent member of this team, got benched for a game because his "effort" wasn't there and then came back and tore it up the rest of the season. He was the last pick in the draft and has done all of this. Classic overachiever and I don't think he's the type to rest on his laurels once picking up a decent pay check.

Guys like this don't grow on trees. Same thing can be said for a guy like Weber. These type of skill sets don't exist in most players. Teams pay a premium for guys like this so if we let him walk I think it's a huge mistake. I don't think he's the type to go after stupid money at this point but if he keeps doing what he's doing, he'll get a nice payday down the road.

I keep seeing the number $2 million thrown around by a lot of people on here. Where's the monetary point where Poile has to say no? He played that game with Hartnell, could've kept him for around $3 million long term and then was forced to trade him because of Leipold. I don't see Hornqvist getting that type of money just yet but where is the point that we have to say, that's too much or if he gets an offer sheet for x amount of dollars we say, that's too much too.

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