Something I caught while reading a blog on Accuweather:
Can any of our meteorologists comment?
I can comment that a few of the longer range models have been showing some sort of disturbance in the long term, 8-16 days out. What it is.. I don't know.
The way most of these computer models work is purely based off of their initializations. If these models initialize wrong, their entire output would be skewed as they do not even have the current weather correct. Now, I'm not saying that this is the sole reason why they might be correct or busted, but it has a lot to do with short and long range weather. Simply put... Let's just say that what the Euro model is showing now is a blizzard for the East Coast in that time frame. It will extrapolate and predict the weather from that day onwards using THAT output for that run. Meaning, any slight variation or change to what actually happens during that time frame will drastically effect what the future hours predicted will show. Now, overall, most models still can output the overall gist of the situation considering subtle changes will not generally change the overall flow to a pattern, in regards to the long range.
There's also the "ensembles" of certain models. Essentially these models are the same as the original operational model but with slightly changed data that is digested. The ensembles run, spit out many different situations that could occur according to these changes, then derive at an overall mean. Meteorologist and weather enthusiasts can then compare the OP to it's ensembles and see how they verify against each other.
Just in case others wanted to know, more or less, for long range forecasting it's more about overall patterns and climatology rather than trying to predict and overlook short term trends. For winter storms for the Eastern US, first things people will look at for the long range is MJO and it's phases (global scale rainfall which goes through phases that are prime or unfavorable for certain storms and conditions), NAO, PNA, AO, etc. Most having to do with overall patterns that are consistent throughout on a global or planetary scale. More or less, it's weather teleconnections more than anything.
But.. if anything does happen to get itself together in the next few days, after this next storm we're getting (which at this point is rather tricky to forecast, could be looking at anywhere from a rain/sleet to only snow to only rain, etc., really don't know yet ) I'll be sure to try to break it down and if you want, link you to a weather site I'm on for forecasts for the MD/DE/PA/NJ/NY area.
I hope your forced to live there.Like on house arrest or something, because i can't even imagine living there
i actually prefer it to NY or NJ to be totally honest. cost of living is much cheaper, you can get a huge house for 200k, and the people are really nice. *shrugs* i love it here, and probably will live here till the day i die.