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The Misinformation Behind The 5 Year Rebuild

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Old
02-12-2010, 12:41 PM
  #1
SK13
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The Misinformation Behind The 5 Year Rebuild

The two best examples of a lengthy rebuild through the draft gone right are Chicago and Los Angeles? Agree?

Chicago:
2001: Drafted Tuomo Ruutu 9th overall
2002: Drafted Anton Babchuk 21st overall
2003: Drafted Brent Seabrook 14th overall
2004: Drafted Cam Barker 3rd overall
2005: Drafted Jack Skille 7th overall

Los Angeles:
2001: Drafted Jens Karlsson 17th overall
2002: Drafted Denis Grebeshkov 18th overall
2003: Drafted Dustin Brown 13th overall
2004: Drafted Lauri Tukonen 11th overall
2005: Drafted Anze Kopitar 11th overall

They did the same thing we've done for years: Miss out on the playoffs AND lottery picks. The only lottery pick for either team in that 5 draft span? Cam Barker - third overall in the weakest draft of the decade, a draft that was always considered 2 stars deep.

Here's the same look-in at the Oilers last 5 first rounds:

2005: Andrew Cogliano 25th overall
2006: N/A
2007: Sam Gagner 6th overall, Alex Plante 15th overall, Riley Nash 22nd overall
2008: Jordan Eberle 22nd overall
2009: Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson 10th overall

Three picks in the bottom-10, two picks in the top-10 and one at 15. If it took Chicago and LA 7 drafts to build a core, Edmonton is already 5 years into that mess.

Chicago:
2006: Jonathan Toews (3rd overall)
2007: Patrick Kane (1st overall)

Los Angeles:
2007: Thomas Hickey (4th overall)
2008: Drew Doughty (2nd overall)

Is it really a shock that Doughty, Toews and Kane - all Olympians in the first Olympics since their respective drafts, are all arguably THE key components on playoff teams right now and the vast majority of the names in the first 5 drafts are neither Olympians or key components on those same teams? Kopitar is the only exception to the rule.

I suppose my point is that this is a two, maybe even one (depending on whether we fit Colorado's or Los Angeles' mold more) draft rebuild based on the model presented to us.

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Old
02-12-2010, 12:45 PM
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hockeyaddict101
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SK13 View Post
The two best examples of a lengthy rebuild through the draft gone right are Chicago and Los Angeles? Agree?

Chicago:
2001: Drafted Tuomo Ruutu 9th overall
2002: Drafted Anton Babchuk 21st overall
2003: Drafted Brent Seabrook 14th overall
2004: Drafted Cam Barker 3rd overall
2005: Drafted Jack Skille 7th overall

Los Angeles:
2001: Drafted Jens Karlsson 17th overall
2002: Drafted Denis Grebeshkov 18th overall
2003: Drafted Dustin Brown 13th overall
2004: Drafted Lauri Tukonen 11th overall
2005: Drafted Anze Kopitar 11th overall

They did the same thing we've done for years: Miss out on the playoffs AND lottery picks. The only lottery pick for either team in that 5 draft span? Cam Barker - third overall in the weakest draft of the decade, a draft that was always considered 2 stars deep.

Here's the same look-in at the Oilers last 5 first rounds:

2005: Andrew Cogliano 25th overall
2006: N/A
2007: Sam Gagner 6th overall, Alex Plante 15th overall, Riley Nash 22nd overall
2008: Jordan Eberle 22nd overall
2009: Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson 10th overall

Three picks in the bottom-10, two picks in the top-10 and one at 15. If it took Chicago and LA 7 drafts to build a core, Edmonton is already 5 years into that mess.

Chicago:
2006: Jonathan Toews (3rd overall)
2007: Patrick Kane (1st overall)

Los Angeles:
2007: Thomas Hickey (4th overall)
2008: Drew Doughty (2nd overall)
2009: Brayden Schenn (5th overall)

Is it really a shock that Doughty, Toews and Kane - all Olympians in the first Olympics since their respective drafts, are all arguably THE key components on playoff teams right now and the vast majority of the names in the first 5 drafts are neither Olympians or key components on those same teams? Kopitar is the only exception to the rule.

I suppose my point is that this is a two, maybe even one (depending on whether we fit Colorado's or Los Angeles' mold more) draft rebuild based on the model presented to us.
Good post/

It may not be as long as people think. Lets face it, this team is going to finish worse than it would have because of all the injuries and getting a player like a Sequin or a Hall will hasten that rebuild.

The issue is going to be dealing with the cap situation.

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02-12-2010, 12:46 PM
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Yeah I've always thought this would be a quick rebuild. We have some nice supporting pieces, we need that franchise player and we probably will at this year's draft.

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02-12-2010, 12:47 PM
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I don't care what anyone says the rebuild ends as soon as you draft a Superstar. Pittsburgh drafted Crosby and 2 years later they are in the playoffs. Washington took a bit longer but that was because of the lockout. Chicago drafted Kane 2 years late they are in the Western final.

The Oilers can very well skip the 5 year crap and go directly into a great team. Hall or Seguin are great great players to build around. Plus the Oilers look like they have some diamonds in the rough drafted outside the top 5 that could turn out to be top 5 talent. It doesn't matter where you draft its who and when. I think the Oilers hit the Jackpot with Eberle and MPS.

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02-12-2010, 12:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hockeyaddict101 View Post
Good post/

It may not be as long as people think. Lets face it, this team is going to finish worse than it would have because of all the injuries and getting a player like a Sequin or a Hall will hasten that rebuild.

The issue is going to be dealing with the cap situation.
It shouldn't be, but are we forgetting already who we have in charge of this rebuild?

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02-12-2010, 12:50 PM
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SK13
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The other side of the coin are the teams stuck in a perpetual rebuild:

Atlanta and Columbus come to mind. Two teams who have drafted closer to the lottery more often than not and have failed to build a core in the RFA periods of their previous lottery picks. The only thing keeping us out of that perpetual hell has to be deft management, and ours has historically been better (believe it or not, we've fielded more competitive teams than those teams have in the last 5+ years and have more money to throw around doing it).

Our model prior to this current tank-job resembled the Minnesota Wild or Florida Panthers: Forever bubble teams who never have the assets or the draft picks to acquire enough talent to win.


Last edited by SK13: 02-12-2010 at 01:19 PM.
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02-12-2010, 12:54 PM
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Also, it should be said that teams have achieved success historically by drafting pairs out of the lottery in successive seasons.

Crosby, Malkin.
Ovechkin, Backstrom.
Kane, Toews.
Doughty, Kopitar*.
Duchene, Statsny*.
* - Stars drafted outside of the lottery.

The big question: Is Sam Gagner, Jordan Eberle or Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson good enough to be that asterisk for us, or are we going to need a shot at Sean Couturier, Adam Larsson and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins in 2011?

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02-12-2010, 12:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by misfit View Post
It shouldn't be, but are we forgetting already who we have in charge of this rebuild?
That is also a legitimate question.

But fortunetely, we have a lot of the pieces already in place.

Hall or Sequin (most likely), Eberle, MPS, Hemsky, Gagner.

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02-12-2010, 12:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by misfit View Post
It shouldn't be, but are we forgetting already who we have in charge of this rebuild?
Management seemingly no less inept than Dean Lombardi or Dale Tallon when they were entering their respective top-two drafts?

EDIT: I said Doug Armstrong for some reason, meant Dean Lombardi.


Last edited by SK13: 02-12-2010 at 01:09 PM.
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02-12-2010, 12:59 PM
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MPS before the start of his draft season was projected to go 4th after Duchene and ahead of Kane and Braydon Schenn. Something happened during the season though that changed people's minds but I think after this year people are back on his band wagon. For me I love the way this guy plays because its what the Oilers are all about i.e. Speed and Skill and he drive the net like a Mofo. If LA would offer Bradon Schenn now straight up for MPS I would say no. Not sure about Atlanta's Kane though. I think MPS has more upside.

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02-12-2010, 01:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SK13 View Post
Management seemingly no less inept than Doug Armstrong or Dale Tallon when they were entering their respective top-two drafts?
Drafting a Kane and a Toews will make any management look good.

Good points, excellent thread.

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02-12-2010, 01:02 PM
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I've said in another thread that if Tambillini plays his cards right, he could turn things around quickly. This team has bad contracts but also has some nice assets they could trade.

There is no reason why this team can't be competitive next season.

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02-12-2010, 01:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SK13 View Post
Also, it should be said that teams have achieved success historically by drafting pairs out of the lottery in successive seasons.

Crosby, Malkin.
Ovechkin, Backstrom.
Kane, Toews.
Doughty, Kopitar*.
Duchene, Statsny*.
* - Stars drafted outside of the lottery.

The big question: Is Sam Gagner, Jordan Eberle or Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson good enough to be that asterisk for us, or are we going to need a shot at Sean Couturier, Adam Larsson and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins in 2011?
I think MPS has a good shot at the asterisk, but I would love to get that TO 2011 1st out of Boston just so we can get a chance at one of those guys. In my mind, one of Hall/Seguin and one of Couturier/Larsson and our rebuild is compete whether Gagner, MPS, or Eberle ever become true top line players or not.

Another option is trying to get another top 10 pick this year to grab Niederreiter. I absolutely love that kid's game and see really big things in his future. He could easily be that asterisk player for some team.

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02-12-2010, 01:05 PM
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Originally Posted by hockeyaddict101 View Post
That is also a legitimate question.

But fortunetely, we have a lot of the pieces already in place.

Hall or Sequin (most likely), Eberle, MPS, Hemsky, Gagner.


Will you please stop calling him "Sequin". It is Seguin. Sequin sounds so......feminine.

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02-12-2010, 01:06 PM
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Will you please stop calling him "Sequin". It is Seguin. Sequin sounds so......feminine.
Thanks for the correction.

What is wrong with feminine.

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02-12-2010, 01:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hockeyaddict101 View Post
Drafting a Kane and a Toews will make any management look good.

Good points, excellent thread.
Thank you. I'm sick and tired of hearing about how awesome Chicago is. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut(two in this case) If you suck long enough its bound to happen. The only thing I give them credit for is Keith which seems like an excellent 2nd rounder. If the Oilers are able to turn things around with the guys they have and the draft pick they are about to get it would be much much more impressive.

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02-12-2010, 01:10 PM
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Originally Posted by hockeyaddict101 View Post
Thanks for the correction.

What is wrong with feminine.
All is forgiven, you were just thinking of the outfit you briefly use on stage.

Whoop, back on topic, yes I think this club is closer than many think. Colorado in one draft replaced Smyth and Sakic, and finally found a goaltender. They had some great pieces already in place, didn't suffer as many injuries too and I think that helps.

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02-12-2010, 01:11 PM
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All is forgiven, you were just thinking of the outfit you briefly use on stage.
Dang caught again.

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02-12-2010, 01:18 PM
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Great post SK13.

I agree, it might only take two more picks one of the two coming from this season's draft.

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02-12-2010, 01:22 PM
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Dang caught again.

The laptop dance was a dead giveaway.

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02-12-2010, 01:23 PM
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The difference between being a Chicago or Los Angeles and being a Columbus or Altanta is good management. And looking at what we have here, I'd say we're a lot closer to being the next Columbus Blue Jackets than we are to being the next Chicago Blackhawks.

With players like Kovalchuk, Heatley, Lehtonen, and Coburn, Atlanta had all the makings of a strong core of players to build around. They just weren't able to get the most out of the trade and free agent markets to build a successful team. Columbus wasn't as good at the draft table, but they didn't help themselves any in the other areas.

Chicago was able to make good trades to get Sharp, Versteeg, and Ladd. They got Havlat, Campbell, and Khabibulin in free agency, and were also able to find some gems later in the draft as well (Keith, Byfuglien).

Los Angeles traded for Stoll, Smyth, Greene, Johnson, and Williams. They picked up guys like Handzus, Scuderi, and O'Donnell in free agency, and had some late round success as well with Quick, Simmonds, and Parse.

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02-12-2010, 01:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by misfit View Post
The difference between being a Chicago or Los Angeles and being a Columbus or Altanta is good management. And looking at what we have here, I'd say we're a lot closer to being the next Columbus Blue Jackets than we are to being the next Chicago Blackhawks.

With players like Kovalchuk, Heatley, Lehtonen, and Coburn, Atlanta had all the makings of a strong core of players to build around. They just weren't able to get the most out of the trade and free agent markets to build a successful team. Columbus wasn't as good at the draft table, but they didn't help themselves any in the other areas.

Chicago was able to make good trades to get Sharp, Versteeg, and Ladd. They got Havlat, Campbell, and Khabibulin in free agency, and were also able to find some gems later in the draft as well (Keith, Byfuglien).

Los Angeles traded for Stoll, Smyth, Greene, Johnson, and Williams. They picked up guys like Handzus, Scuderi, and O'Donnell in free agency, and had some late round success as well with Quick, Simmonds, and Parse.
To be fair on Atlanta's behalf; it had more to do with players not wanting to stay there. When that happens you never get = value back.

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02-12-2010, 01:39 PM
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Originally Posted by SK13 View Post
Management seemingly no less inept than Dean Lombardi or Dale Tallon when they were entering their respective top-two drafts?

EDIT: I said Doug Armstrong for some reason, meant Dean Lombardi.
Maybe not in terms of drafting high in the first round, but that's only one small part of the equation.

There are lots of clubs who've had good teams for a long time that didn't have to draft high for years and years in a row. New Jersey, San Jose, Vancouver, Detroit, Philly, Anaheim, Boston, Nashville. Philly had the 2nd overall pick a couple years back, but other than that, all of those teams have been able to put together a solid core to build competative teams around.

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02-12-2010, 01:39 PM
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Originally Posted by misfit View Post
The difference between being a Chicago or Los Angeles and being a Columbus or Altanta is good management. And looking at what we have here, I'd say we're a lot closer to being the next Columbus Blue Jackets than we are to being the next Chicago Blackhawks.

With players like Kovalchuk, Heatley, Lehtonen, and Coburn, Atlanta had all the makings of a strong core of players to build around. They just weren't able to get the most out of the trade and free agent markets to build a successful team. Columbus wasn't as good at the draft table, but they didn't help themselves any in the other areas.

Chicago was able to make good trades to get Sharp, Versteeg, and Ladd. They got Havlat, Campbell, and Khabibulin in free agency, and were also able to find some gems later in the draft as well (Keith, Byfuglien).

Los Angeles traded for Stoll, Smyth, Greene, Johnson, and Williams. They picked up guys like Handzus, Scuderi, and O'Donnell in free agency, and had some late round success as well with Quick, Simmonds, and Parse.
You're not looking at what the situation was with these teams, you're looking at what it came to be..

Look at what Sharp was in 2006. A guy who was decent at everything, great at nothing who at the age of 24 couldn't earn a roster spot. Went to a bad team and scored 20 goals, became a player. If i replaced that name with Ryan Potulny, I wouldn't have to change a thing. They even both came from Philly's development system.

You look at the Brule and Smid acquisitions and you look at the organizational talent outside of the NHL - which is exactly what Simmonds, Brouwer, Versteeg, etc were at the time.

Pointing out the veteran additions makes zero sense in relation to the Oilers, because adding veterans to a young team is the very last step in a rebuild. It's what you do to come out of it, and really, adding veterans has never been an Oilers issue.

This is the same team with the same upper management that added Samsonov, Cole, Spacek, Tarnstrom, Tjarnqvist, Sykora, Reasoner and more to supplement a bubble team roster.

It's the top of the roster that needs to be sorted. It was the top of the roster that needed to be sorted for Lombardi and Tallon, who quite frankly, do not get enough credit for the many bad decisions they made.

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02-12-2010, 01:40 PM
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Originally Posted by misfit View Post
The difference between being a Chicago or Los Angeles and being a Columbus or Altanta is good management. And looking at what we have here, I'd say we're a lot closer to being the next Columbus Blue Jackets than we are to being the next Chicago Blackhawks.

With players like Kovalchuk, Heatley, Lehtonen, and Coburn, Atlanta had all the makings of a strong core of players to build around. They just weren't able to get the most out of the trade and free agent markets to build a successful team. Columbus wasn't as good at the draft table, but they didn't help themselves any in the other areas.

Chicago was able to make good trades to get Sharp, Versteeg, and Ladd. They got Havlat, Campbell, and Khabibulin in free agency, and were also able to find some gems later in the draft as well (Keith, Byfuglien).

Los Angeles traded for Stoll, Smyth, Greene, Johnson, and Williams. They picked up guys like Handzus, Scuderi, and O'Donnell in free agency, and had some late round success as well with Quick, Simmonds, and Parse.
Havlat was pretty much a bust until last year, Khabibulin the same those were two very bad signings at the time. Campbell signing got Tallon fired as it was obvious Scotty Bowman did not like it one bit.

Sharp trade was not bad but Brule could be our Sharp that was pretty good trade for us. Versteeg, we have a much better version of Versteeg. His name is Omark and he's awesome. Trust me.

Our Management is no where near as terrible as Columbus or Atlanta. When did those teams have any hope for their future like we do. When did they have 2 prospects that led the WJC championships in scoring on two different teams. Its okay to be critical but lets not be stupid. Sure there were some bad moves that were made but none of them are catastrophic. Horcoff is a bad contract but he still does things that help this team. Everyone was kissing Tambo's ass last year after he signed two Head coach's to coach this team. So before we hate and criticize because its the cool thing to do let's look forward and hope for the best.

Bold Statement of the day: The Oilers will be the next Canadian team to win the Stanley Cup.

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