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The Misinformation Behind The 5 Year Rebuild

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Old
02-12-2010, 11:49 PM
  #51
Tavaresmagicalplay*
 
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The kings and blackhawks took longer than 5 years.

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Old
02-13-2010, 05:44 AM
  #52
SK13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AndreaBargnani View Post
The kings and blackhawks took longer than 5 years.
I'm not certain you've absorbed the point of the post.

If the Kings and Blackhawks took more than 5 years to rebuild, they had playoff years and middling picks through most of that stretch. The years they missed, they missed the lottery as well and if that counts as a proper rebuild, if those 5+ years count - than the Oilers are already more than 5 years into their own rebuild.

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I think it's still an interesting mathematical viewpoint though. The Oilers are likely to miss the playoffs next year and then have several years of middling/bubble years where they return to narrowly making/missing the playoffs in 8th-10th in their conference before likely solidly turning into a contending playoff team probably 4-5 years down the road.
It's an interesting look, but there are a lot of variables unaccounted for.

Primary: 25 years is far too long of a sample, recent models are far more relevant than models developed extensively in a vastly different environment where the players were bigger, older and scoring was lower. Not to mention greater financial disparity.

Another issue I have with that formula is that it doesn't account for the difference in models going into the scenario IE: Expansion teams. From 1990-2002, almost half of the top-2 selections in the league went to teams that had expanded the previous three years. Those teams do not have requisite talent to cycle out, and are forced to build almost exclusively through the draft or player procurement, because trade assets are lessened by the fact that there rosters were picked out of the players teams deemed least valuable.

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Old
02-13-2010, 07:54 AM
  #53
Fourier
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Jump ahead 2-3 years and look at what the Oilers might be with what is essentially in their system right now and assuming one of Hall/Seguin is picked...

Code:
Penner      Gagner      Hemsky
MPS         Hall/Seguin  Brule
Potulny      Horcoff    Eberle
Omark     Vande Velde  Hartikainen
Lander

Smid           Visnovsky
Grebeshkov  Gilbert
Chorney       Petry
Plante

Khabiboulin
JDD
Assuming the prospects develop, (If they don't then you are not going to be a success no matter what you do) this is a pretty decent group to build around.

Up front you have a fast skilled team with decent size. It is young so likely some of the spots would be filled with more veteran players. But this could likley be done cheaply and on a needs basis. With luck, the gap between this group and Chicago may not be that large.

Similarly, there would likely be at least one new face on the defence. Probably, a tough stay-at-home kind of guy. But here you really need a guy like Petry to become a diamond in the rough to compete with a team like Chicago. Unfortunately, there is no Keith/Seabrook tandem in this group right now. Still, if Grebs and Gilbert can bounce back, it is not a bad start.

To me this shows that there is no real need to blow up the whole team and start afresh. Just add smartly to what you have and get the best out of them.

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02-13-2010, 09:00 AM
  #54
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I just wanted to chime in and say:

This year has sucked for sure, but I'm glad the Oilers have something good coming their way. At the same time, this year has sucked for the Leafs, and I'm glad they have nothing coming their way.
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Old
02-13-2010, 09:09 AM
  #55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AndreaBargnani View Post
The kings and blackhawks took longer than 5 years.
Not really. It comes down to how many players during that span are actually still on the roster. Although Hockey is a team game, it usually takes only 1 or 2 to put the team over the top. Kane/Toews and Doughty are those types players for the Hawks and Kings respectively.

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Old
02-13-2010, 12:36 PM
  #56
Stoneman89
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SK13 View Post
I'm not certain you've absorbed the point of the post.

If the Kings and Blackhawks took more than 5 years to rebuild, they had playoff years and middling picks through most of that stretch. The years they missed, they missed the lottery as well and if that counts as a proper rebuild, if those 5+ years count - than the Oilers are already more than 5 years into their own rebuild.



It's an interesting look, but there are a lot of variables unaccounted for.

Primary: 25 years is far too long of a sample, recent models are far more relevant than models developed extensively in a vastly different environment where the players were bigger, older and scoring was lower. Not to mention greater financial disparity.

Another issue I have with that formula is that it doesn't account for the difference in models going into the scenario IE: Expansion teams. From 1990-2002, almost half of the top-2 selections in the league went to teams that had expanded the previous three years. Those teams do not have requisite talent to cycle out, and are forced to build almost exclusively through the draft or player procurement, because trade assets are lessened by the fact that there rosters were picked out of the players teams deemed least valuable.


The Blackhawks missed the playoffs from 2002 till 2007. Prior to that, they made the playoffs ONCE in 5 years. the Kings have not qualified for the playoffs since 2001.

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02-13-2010, 02:43 PM
  #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SK13 View Post
I'm not certain you've absorbed the point of the post.

If the Kings and Blackhawks took more than 5 years to rebuild, they had playoff years and middling picks through most of that stretch. The years they missed, they missed the lottery as well and if that counts as a proper rebuild, if those 5+ years count - than the Oilers are already more than 5 years into their own rebuild.



It's an interesting look, but there are a lot of variables unaccounted for.

Primary: 25 years is far too long of a sample, recent models are far more relevant than models developed extensively in a vastly different environment where the players were bigger, older and scoring was lower. Not to mention greater financial disparity.

Another issue I have with that formula is that it doesn't account for the difference in models going into the scenario IE: Expansion teams. From 1990-2002, almost half of the top-2 selections in the league went to teams that had expanded the previous three years. Those teams do not have requisite talent to cycle out, and are forced to build almost exclusively through the draft or player procurement, because trade assets are lessened by the fact that there rosters were picked out of the players teams deemed least valuable.
Yes, I basically mentioned all those provisos in my original post. The scoring was higher in the past though, not lower. I agree there are always different variables with different teams. If you draft an Ovechkin or Crosby and have a few vets to support them a rebuild is a lot easier.

There is a lot of variance as can be seen by the range of performances going forward over the last 25 years... some teams are as high as #2 within a few years... some are still struggling to get out of the basement years later (especially expansion clubs in the past) and most are somewhere in the middle.

Here's the last 6 last place finishers and whether they made/missed the playoffs the following years:

02/03 Carolina Hurricanes (03/04-missed)(05/06-made)(06/07-missed)(07/08-missed)(08/09-made)
03/04 Pittsburgh Penguins(05/06-missed)(06/07-made)(07/08-made)(08/09-made)(09/10-likely made)
05/06 St. Louis Blues(06/07-missed)(07/08-missed)(08/09-made)(09/10?)
06/07 Philadelphia Flyers(07/08-made)(08/09-made)(09/10?)
07/08 Tampa Bay Lightning(08/09-missed)(09/10?)
08/09 New York Islanders(09/10probably miss)

Looking at where they are all finished in the following years and you can see it's pretty much 50/50 whether a team misses or makes the playoffs in following years... not much different than random actually. 53% of teams (16/30) make the playoffs in any given year so you'd expect a bit above a 50-50 chance of making the playoffs mathematically.

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Old
02-13-2010, 02:53 PM
  #58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SK13 View Post
I'm not certain you've absorbed the point of the post.

If the Kings and Blackhawks took more than 5 years to rebuild, they had playoff years and middling picks through most of that stretch. The years they missed, they missed the lottery as well and if that counts as a proper rebuild, if those 5+ years count - than the Oilers are already more than 5 years into their own rebuild.
I agree, 3 top 10 picks should be enough. I'm not disagreeing with that. but the Kings and Blackhawks had a lot of lottery picks and we haven't had one. They were consistently bad, We were consistently getting picks in the 13-15 range in weak drafts.

The Kings had 3 number 11 picks and 2 top 5 picks in a span of 5 years not to mention they picked in the 2003 draft.

The Blackhawks had 3 top 5 picks, a pick in the 03 draft and gathered about a million draft picks in that period of time(look at the 2004 and 2005 drafts).

This is a big time problem with the oilers. They are not assembling enough picks. The blackhawks drafted players like Hjalmarsson Bolland, Brouwer, Burish, Byfuglien, Keith, and so on in the later rounds. They were making great picks all over the place. Look at the kings 2007 draft 3 guys from that draft have already played in the nhl. When tomas Hickey comes back from injury next season you might be able to make that 4.

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Old
02-13-2010, 03:43 PM
  #59
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Instead of wasting money on Horcoff, Penner, Souray, Khabibulin, etc, etc, etc, the Oilers management would have been better off firing the entire scouting staff and associates and spending some money and bringing in some scouts that know how to draft NHL talent.

The Oilers biggest weakness has been their drafting ability...they could do MUCH better and their team would be better off for it.

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Old
02-13-2010, 04:45 PM
  #60
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stoneman89 View Post
The Blackhawks missed the playoffs from 2002 till 2007. Prior to that, they made the playoffs ONCE in 5 years. the Kings have not qualified for the playoffs since 2001.
Read the OP. I went back to 2001.

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Old
02-13-2010, 07:11 PM
  #61
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Good thread. I've been saying a lot of the same thing for a few months now, in that while it seems to some like this is the start of a rebuild it's really got a nice head start even though we have not been doing it right. Ironically, while the Penner signing is working out pretty well now, if we had held off on the offer sheet we would have drafted Tyler Myers in that spot and Myers is now looking like the top young d-man in hockey....a nice piece to have and though I'm a big Penner fan I would rather have Myers. And while I'm at it, I would rather have Parise as well

Anyways, while I don't think we are as far off as some might think, our blueline is. Unless Gilbert can get back on track with his career we don't have any stud d-man coming. Smid will be a nice guy to have on a shutdown pairing, but he doesn't show signs of being the anchor he once appeared to be. Grebeshkov doesn't appear to be taking steps to be an elite offesnive d-man and he has to be because he is too careless in his own zone. We don't really know what we will have in guys like Chorney, Plante, Petry, and Peckham but I think safe bets are that all these guys but Peckham will be solid 2nd pairing/top 4 d-men but non of them will ever be that stud we need. I'm not one of the few Oiler fans that believes we go grab Fowler with our 1st pick, that would be ridiculous because this franchise is just as desperate for an offensive superstar as they are for a stud d-man. But until we develop a stud d-man (or by chance aquire one....Shea Weber might be on the market as early as this summer if the Preds determine they can't afford him) this rebuild will not be complete IMO.

So to sum up, as long as we get that top 2 pick in June we are very close, a lot more close then most think, but still a ways to go.

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