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2010 Philadelphia PHILLIES - Regular Season Part 1

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04-27-2010, 12:07 AM
  #876
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Originally Posted by Sonny View Post
Any comparisons between Howard and David Ortiz are completely unfounded. Ortiz had success because he had Manny Ramirez in front of him and PEDs throughout him.

And I don't care and, frankly, don't understand how the Phillies making sure they "got their guy" justifies the outrageous price tag (again!). It's a good baseball move, sure, but it's an awful business move, and now we've seen it with four guys -- Moyer, Ibanez, Polanco, and Howard.

It's not the ideal way to run a baseball team, and I don't feel we should have to accept a year or two of blackhole production from a guy. If someone would like to explain why they do, or why they're at worst alright with such a thing because the team "got their guy," I'd love to hear the explanation and find if I'm missing something because this is the kind of attitude that ties our hands in a couple years and we'll find Ruben feeding us lines about how he could only afford a middle reliever at the deadline and follow up on it by saying "Well, we had a championship caliber team" at the end of a disappointing year.
Can I borrow your crystal ball? I'd love to be as sure about the Powerball numbers for the next drawing as you are that every one of these players is going to hit the wall.

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04-27-2010, 12:15 AM
  #877
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Originally Posted by CantSeeColors View Post
Can I borrow your crystal ball? I'd love to be as sure about the Powerball numbers for the next drawing as you are that every one of these players is going to hit the wall.
There's unnecessary commitment in all four of the Moyer, Ibanez, Polanco, and Howard deals. If you're talking about the rest of the team, sure, they'll probably be relatively competitive. I don't know about you though, but I'd like to stay as far away from any Ed Wade-isms as possible.

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04-27-2010, 11:27 AM
  #878
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They do have a DH position to fill, though. Pretty sure Howard would be a big upgrade on whoever they're trotting out in that spot right now.
I'm pretty sure they're going to keep that relatively open so they can spot guys like Jeter and A-Rod in the years ahead.

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Any comparisons between Howard and David Ortiz are completely unfounded. Ortiz had success because he had Manny Ramirez in front of him and PEDs throughout him.
Whatever effect PEDs have had on production it isn't that significant. So, the body type comparison is still valid.

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And I don't care and, frankly, don't understand how the Phillies making sure they "got their guy" justifies the outrageous price tag (again!). It's a good baseball move, sure, but it's an awful business move, and now we've seen it with four guys -- Moyer, Ibanez, Polanco, and Howard.

It's not the ideal way to run a baseball team, and I don't feel we should have to accept a year or two of blackhole production from a guy. If someone would like to explain why they do, or why they're at worst alright with such a thing because the team "got their guy," I'd love to hear the explanation and find if I'm missing something because this is the kind of attitude that ties our hands in a couple years and we'll find Ruben feeding us lines about how he could only afford a middle reliever at the deadline and follow up on it by saying "Well, we had a championship caliber team" at the end of a disappointing year.
You would have to know the internal numbers that Howard brings in to really look at the $25M number. That mitigates it considerably, I imagine. I think they probably should have gotten this deal done for less per year, but this is one of those deals where the team basically felt they HAD TO re-sign the guy from a PR perspective...so they did.

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04-27-2010, 11:29 AM
  #879
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Originally Posted by Sonny View Post
There's unnecessary commitment in all four of the Moyer, Ibanez, Polanco, and Howard deals. If you're talking about the rest of the team, sure, they'll probably be relatively competitive. I don't know about you though, but I'd like to stay as far away from any Ed Wade-isms as possible.
The Moyer contract was stupid from the outset... I don't have a problem with the Ibanez and Polanco deals (they're modest both financially and in terms of length). Sure, they may have been had for cheaper and shorter, but part of that is that philosophically the Phils approach free agency with a shopping list and attempt to jump the market to make sure they get that. It has worked.

This Howard deal, though, is another ball of wax.

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04-27-2010, 11:35 AM
  #880
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
The Moyer contract was stupid from the outset... I don't have a problem with the Ibanez and Polanco deals (they're modest both financially and in terms of length). Sure, they may have been had for cheaper and shorter, but part of that is that philosophically the Phils approach free agency with a shopping list and attempt to jump the market to make sure they get that. It has worked.

This Howard deal, though, is another ball of wax.
Moyer's deal is awful and Howard's has a high chance of back firing on us. Oh well.

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04-27-2010, 11:40 AM
  #881
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Moyer's deal is awful and Howard's has a high chance of back firing on us. Oh well.
Moyer's was pure post-coital pillow talk after the WS...and I think we can forgive them that. I also think they just like having him around the team...but, yeah, no good reason to sign him to that deal on performance.

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04-27-2010, 12:32 PM
  #882
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All I know, that is if they don't start winning, Dana's gonna have something to say about it...



(sorry..just tryin' to lighten the mood)

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04-27-2010, 01:33 PM
  #883
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All I know, that is if they don't start winning, Dana's gonna have something to say about it...



(sorry..just tryin' to lighten the mood)
So cute. Mood lightened.

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04-27-2010, 02:37 PM
  #884
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Whatever effect PEDs have had on production it isn't that significant. So, the body type comparison is still valid.
Would you mind expanding on that? I don't feel they're too similar at all because Papi's always seem to have been in questionable shape, and then just lost mysteriously lost a ton of weight (muscle) and hasn't quite been the same since. Maybe I'm missing or misinterpreting something.

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You would have to know the internal numbers that Howard brings in to really look at the $25M number. That mitigates it considerably, I imagine. I think they probably should have gotten this deal done for less per year, but this is one of those deals where the team basically felt they HAD TO re-sign the guy from a PR perspective...so they did.
This is something that isn't being taken into account by just about any media outlet or report. It's probably a really valid point, but I'd like to see the Phillies come out and be transparent about it. The only problem there is they obviously don't see a problem with the deal, and don't feel they need to explain it outside of the generic quotes we've already gotten (which isn't a slight against them, as it's what any club would do).

I'll also support this thought more if they do show a willingness to spend more without high regard to Howard's new deal, so that part's also very wait-and-see. Luckily we only have to wait until this season's over (if not shorter) to see how they address the Werth situation.

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04-27-2010, 02:51 PM
  #885
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All I know, that is if they don't start winning, Dana's gonna have something to say about it...



(sorry..just tryin' to lighten the mood)
Ok, that's cute. She is really cute.

Mood lightened.

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04-27-2010, 02:59 PM
  #886
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Originally Posted by Sonny View Post
Would you mind expanding on that? I don't feel they're too similar at all because Papi's always seem to have been in questionable shape, and then just lost mysteriously lost a ton of weight (muscle) and hasn't quite been the same since. Maybe I'm missing or misinterpreting something.
PEDs don't help you make contact with a 95 mph baseball...they help you stay healthy, and maybe hit it a little bit further. I just don't buy that they accomplish much more than that...so what we've witnessed with Ortiz the last couple years has little to do with any PEDs he may have taken.

Quote:
This is something that isn't being taken into account by just about any media outlet or report. It's probably a really valid point, but I'd like to see the Phillies come out and be transparent about it. The only problem there is they obviously don't see a problem with the deal, and don't feel they need to explain it outside of the generic quotes we've already gotten (which isn't a slight against them, as it's what any club would do).

I'll also support this thought more if they do show a willingness to spend more without high regard to Howard's new deal, so that part's also very wait-and-see. Luckily we only have to wait until this season's over (if not shorter) to see how they address the Werth situation.
I very much doubt the Phils (or any other club) will come out with the specific numbers for what they feel individual players bring into the club.

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04-27-2010, 03:32 PM
  #887
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
PEDs don't help you make contact with a 95 mph baseball...they help you stay healthy, and maybe hit it a little bit further. I just don't buy that they accomplish much more than that...so what we've witnessed with Ortiz the last couple years has little to do with any PEDs he may have taken.
Unless they were detrimental to his health in the long-term, which is certainly possible.

Having watched plently of Papi while up in Boston the last 4 years, I've seen his decline first-hand. He started having injury troubles, was never the same trying to come back from them. It's the breakdown that almost every slugger has gone through in the last 15 years, but then again, PEDs might have also been a common link for almost every slugger for the past 15 years. His breakdown was also VERY sudden compared to most. He was consistently around .300 and OPS of close to 1.000 in his Boston years then hit a wall in '08 starting with a major injury, never was the same. If the same happens to Howard we're in trouble, but if he has the ~1.000 OPS seasons Papi had from 30 to 33, I'll be happy.

Howard is more athletic that Ortiz by comparison. It's not a matter of pure weight, but muscle mass vs. fat. Papi flat out can't play 1B. Never really could. Howard is getting better towards 30. I hope that he continues focuses on being an athlete rather than a pure slugger. This is a huge vote of confidence from the Phillies that he'll do that in the field and become more patient at the plate (can't teach an old dog new tricks though...).

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04-27-2010, 04:07 PM
  #888
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Originally Posted by might2mash View Post
Unless they were detrimental to his health in the long-term, which is certainly possible.

Having watched plently of Papi while up in Boston the last 4 years, I've seen his decline first-hand. He started having injury troubles, was never the same trying to come back from them. It's the breakdown that almost every slugger has gone through in the last 15 years, but then again, PEDs might have also been a common link for almost every slugger for the past 15 years. His breakdown was also VERY sudden compared to most. He was consistently around .300 and OPS of close to 1.000 in his Boston years then hit a wall in '08 starting with a major injury, never was the same. If the same happens to Howard we're in trouble, but if he has the ~1.000 OPS seasons Papi had from 30 to 33, I'll be happy.

Howard is more athletic that Ortiz by comparison. It's not a matter of pure weight, but muscle mass vs. fat. Papi flat out can't play 1B. Never really could. Howard is getting better towards 30. I hope that he continues focuses on being an athlete rather than a pure slugger. This is a huge vote of confidence from the Phillies that he'll do that in the field and become more patient at the plate (can't teach an old dog new tricks though...).
The problem in your thesis is that what was notable about the PED era wasn't players going down early...it was players lasting notably longer at a high level. Barry Bonds... Roger Clemens, etc. PEDs delayed age, they didn't cause it to suddenly come on. Look at what Mark McGwire was just saying...he couldn't stay on the field, so he started taking PEDs to help him stay healthy and get out there.

Bodies begin to breakdown in players' 30s. Just the way it is. Particularly when you're a bigger guy, which Howard will never be able to avoid, because it makes your body work that much harder.

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04-27-2010, 04:19 PM
  #889
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
The problem in your thesis is that what was notable about the PED era wasn't players going down early...it was players lasting notably longer at a high level. Barry Bonds... Roger Clemens, etc. PEDs delayed age, they didn't cause it to suddenly come on. Look at what Mark McGwire was just saying...he couldn't stay on the field, so he started taking PEDs to help him stay healthy and get out there.

Bodies begin to breakdown in players' 30s. Just the way it is. Particularly when you're a bigger guy, which Howard will never be able to avoid, because it makes your body work that much harder.
Except when the scrutiny was increased this past decade and guys fell of a cliff ala Sosa and Bonds. As soon as players who were doing them stopped, they very quickly showed what was really left.

The best we can hope for with Howard is a Delgado-like decline, which actually didn't happen until his late 30s, but Howard needs to trim up quite a bit to hope for that, not disputing that.

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04-27-2010, 07:32 PM
  #890
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Moyer's deal is awful and Howard's has a high chance of back firing on us. Oh well.
idk how you can say the moyer deal is awful. i cant stand hes on the team but come on. hes a great tutor and we needed him around. no guy who wins 16 games is going to sign a one year deal. its part of the business.

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04-27-2010, 07:35 PM
  #891
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idk how you can say the moyer deal is awful. i cant stand hes on the team but come on. hes a great tutor and we needed him around. no guy who wins 16 games is going to sign a one year deal. its part of the business.
There's not much precedent for a 46-year old pitcher coming off a 16-win season, a one-year deal was a possibility.

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04-27-2010, 08:09 PM
  #892
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There's not much precedent for a 46-year old pitcher coming off a 16-win season, a one-year deal was a possibility.
he refused to do a one year deal. its not like the phils didnt initially offer one. some other team would have given him a 2 year deal, otherwise they wouldnt have given him one. julio franco got a 2 year deal at 47 and he didnt contribute to 16 wins the prior year.

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04-27-2010, 08:24 PM
  #893
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There's not much precedent for a 46-year old pitcher coming off a 16-win season, a one-year deal was a possibility.
There was also what should've been a guarantee of not giving him 8 million dollars.

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04-27-2010, 09:18 PM
  #894
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idk how you can say the moyer deal is awful. i cant stand hes on the team but come on. hes a great tutor and we needed him around. no guy who wins 16 games is going to sign a one year deal. its part of the business.
Being a good guy isn't necessarily a good reason for signing a guy to a bad contract. It was a terrible contract.

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he refused to do a one year deal. its not like the phils didnt initially offer one. some other team would have given him a 2 year deal, otherwise they wouldnt have given him one. julio franco got a 2 year deal at 47 and he didnt contribute to 16 wins the prior year.
So walk away.

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04-27-2010, 10:06 PM
  #895
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Holy ****.

That is all.

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04-27-2010, 11:24 PM
  #896
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Wow this team does not look good at all. They made Wellemeyer look like a Cy Young winner. Its really bad when he got through an inning in 4 pitches.

At least Howard has 2 of the 3 hits so far.

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04-28-2010, 07:29 AM
  #897
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Wow this team does not look good at all. They made Wellemeyer look like a Cy Young winner. Its really bad when he got through an inning in 4 pitches.

At least Howard has 2 of the 3 hits so far.
The funniest part of it all? They're going to beat Lincecum now. Book it.

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04-28-2010, 07:44 AM
  #898
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The funniest part of it all? They're going to beat Lincecum now. Book it.
I wouldn't be surprised. They have a habit of making ****y pitchers looks like Roy Halladay and Cy Young winners look like Adam Eaton. Sometimes.

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04-28-2010, 07:51 AM
  #899
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So walk away.
and who exactly were they going to have fill that spot? you dont think they explored their options? people should stop *****in about his contract and focus on the fact WE ARE SITLL PAYING ADAM EATON

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04-28-2010, 08:00 AM
  #900
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and who exactly were they going to have fill that spot? you dont think they explored their options? people should stop *****in about his contract and focus on the fact WE ARE SITLL PAYING ADAM EATON
They didn't explore their options, they wanted to keep Moyer at an inflated cost because of what he did. I actually don't have a problem with the idea of it, but hate how it may have played into our offseason moves.

And no, we're not. Last year was the final year of his 3-year deal.

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