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Old
02-20-2010, 03:25 PM
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Hurricanes Top 20 prospects, Spring 2010

Zach Boychuk remains the top of the Hurricanes' prospect list and others nudge their way up.

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02-20-2010, 04:30 PM
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Sasha Cares
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Peters is a bit low... Not likely to be a starter ever, but I think he's better than 15

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02-20-2010, 04:40 PM
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No Tlusty? Not much faith in a list that doesn't have Tlusty in the top 20

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02-20-2010, 04:54 PM
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Originally Posted by Hurricane_SVT View Post
No Tlusty? Not much faith in a list that doesn't have Tlusty in the top 20
Tlusty is already a decent bit over the limit for what is considered a prospect. I can't remember if it is 65 games for HF or what but Tlusty is closing in on 100 and should easily hit it by the end of the season.

I like the list a good bit. Some grades seem a bit off to me and some players a bit too low but otherwise it's solid.

Here's how I would have them:
1) LW/C Zach Boychuk - 8.0C
2) D Jamie McBain - 8.0C
3) LW Drayson Bowman - 7.5C
4) C/RW Zac Dalpe - 7.5C
5) D Brian Dumoulin - 7.5C
6) D Brett Carson - 6.5C
7) G Mike Murphy - 8.0D
8) LW/C Chris Terry - 7.0C
9) D Kyle Lawson - 7.0C
10) G Justin Peters - 6.0B
11) C/RW Nick Dodge - 6.0B
12) D Michal Jordan - 6.5C
13) C Stefan Chaput - 6.5C
14) LW Mattias Lindstrom - 6.5C
15) RW Jerome Samson - 6.5C
16) D Casey Borer - 6.5C
17) LW Nicolas Blanchard - 5.5B
18) D Tommi Kivisto - 6.0C
19) D Rasmus Rissanen - 6.0C
20) D Brett Bellemore - 6.0C


Last edited by DaveG: 02-20-2010 at 07:07 PM.
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02-20-2010, 04:54 PM
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I think Tlusty passed the mark of eligibility. He certainly wasn't an oversight, I would imagine.

Still disappointed to see Samson not getting his relative due. I can't imagine much more he can do to improve his standing in the organization than what he has done. It would be pretty well within his reach to score 30-30 this year in the AHL and he's already a more complete player than Chaput, who is 12th in the rankings and the same age.

He leads the AHL in shots by a wide margin. If he had anything to work with down there in terms of a veteran AHL scorer, his production would be other worldly.

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02-20-2010, 05:14 PM
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Good to see McBain moving up to 2. I think he's gonna be the best of the bunch down the road.

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02-20-2010, 05:44 PM
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My top 3, guessing how they end up

1) Dalpe
2) McBain
3) Boychuk
4) Carson
5) Bowman

I think they are underrating our 2-4 players, btw

My bad on Tlusty, didn't know what the rules were

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02-20-2010, 05:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vagrant View Post
Still disappointed to see Samson not getting his relative due. I can't imagine much more he can do to improve his standing in the organization than what he has done. It would be pretty well within his reach to score 30-30 this year in the AHL and he's already a more complete player than Chaput, who is 12th in the rankings and the same age.

He leads the AHL in shots by a wide margin. If he had anything to work with down there in terms of a veteran AHL scorer, his production would be other worldly.
I think this has everything to do with ceilling. I think the thought is that Samson has already hit the ceiling and is a NHL tweener and Chaput still has room to grow......maybe into a legit bottom 6 center. Clearly if it was based on performance to this point then Samson would be higher.

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02-20-2010, 07:02 PM
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Cory Lavalette
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Yes, it's about ceiling. Samson, IMO, is a very good AHLer. But he doesn't have that one skill that separates him from the pack at the NHL level. He's good in the cycle protecting the puck, but is not a good enough passer or scorer to create lots of scoring opportunities at the next level when doing that. He could find a spot as a fourth liner, perhaps a third liner on a grinding line. THe ratings owuld be different if we were grading River Rats performance, but we're trying to project where these guys will be at their peak.

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02-20-2010, 07:54 PM
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I suppose I just find it tough to say that a 22 year old forward that has 3 consecutive 20 goal season and has improved each year to have "peaked".

39 points in 65 games in 07-08 at 19-20. (21 goals)
54 points in 70 games in 08-09 at 20-21. (22 goals)
45 points in 55 games in 09-10 at 21-22. (23 goals)

I think that if he had been a drafted prospect, then folks would be all over him at this point.

I do understand the phenomenon of the "AHL scorer", but what I do not understand is branding a player of Samson's age and relative performance as such. It isn't as if he is regressing or simply staying the same in the AHL either. He is getting better and more confident with each passing game.

And while production may not be everything with a prospect, it sure as hell is something. At some point, it must be considered. It says something that Samson has been given NHL minutes while guys like Dodge, Terry, Bowman, Blanchard, Chaput, Angelidis, etc. have not been. He has supplanted drafted players of virtually the same age due to his production.

If Samson scores 30-35 goals this year in the AHL and has a strong camp next year, he could very well start out at the NHL level.

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02-20-2010, 09:12 PM
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Obviously I think Samson is great, every time he's on the ice we look like making something happen.

Good to see Bellemore getting some recognition - he's been steady all season long.

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02-20-2010, 10:19 PM
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Cory Lavalette
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vagrant View Post
I suppose I just find it tough to say that a 22 year old forward that has 3 consecutive 20 goal season and has improved each year to have "peaked".

39 points in 65 games in 07-08 at 19-20. (21 goals)
54 points in 70 games in 08-09 at 20-21. (22 goals)
45 points in 55 games in 09-10 at 21-22. (23 goals)

I think that if he had been a drafted prospect, then folks would be all over him at this point.

I do understand the phenomenon of the "AHL scorer", but what I do not understand is branding a player of Samson's age and relative performance as such. It isn't as if he is regressing or simply staying the same in the AHL either. He is getting better and more confident with each passing game.

And while production may not be everything with a prospect, it sure as hell is something. At some point, it must be considered. It says something that Samson has been given NHL minutes while guys like Dodge, Terry, Bowman, Blanchard, Chaput, Angelidis, etc. have not been. He has supplanted drafted players of virtually the same age due to his production.

If Samson scores 30-35 goals this year in the AHL and has a strong camp next year, he could very well start out at the NHL level.
I never said he peaked ... I said we're projecting what he could be at his peak. 6C means he a potential third liner (6) that may reach that potential and fall up to two number ratings (4 being a top minor league forward). Seems like a fair assessment to me. *shrug*

Also, there's a big difference between three AHL seasons and one (Bowman, Terry, Chaput-hurt most of last season). I would also debate that he's supplanted most of the those guys (Angelides, sure -- tho he, along with Bowman, have both seen the NHL, too). Terry, Dodge, Bowman -- they all stay in the A right now b/c they aren't far along in their development to bring to the NHL and only play seven or eight minutes. They're better served playing more in the AHL.

I'm not suggesting Samson couldn't get to the NHL, but I'm very reluctant to say he could do so and become a top-six forward.

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02-20-2010, 10:23 PM
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I am on the same boat as you Vagrant regarding Samson. If he was drafted, I have little doubt as you do that he'd be getting more consideration than he does. For a kid to come into the AHL at Samsons age of 19 and pot 20 goals says something. Fast forward and he's now in his 3rd consecutive season of what will be 20-35 goals and he's just 22 years old. Like Vagrant said, numbers don't tell the entire story, I understand that as I'm a long time OHL season ticket holder and have seen my fair share of kids come through the ranks and put up impressive numbers but hit a wall when they turn pro. I just think Samsons scoring has to account for something as he's doing it at a high pro level and doesn't appear to have tapped out, he's getting better. Its not even like he's been on good Albany teans with great talent around him.

All in all I have a hard time calling a kid Samsons age a tweener or AHL lifer (if you will) at this early stage when he's shown solid development and progression each of the past 3 years at such a young age.

Like I said, I know goals and assists don't account for everything, and I will be honest when I say I don't watch Samson play, but for a guy so young to break into the AHL and put up the numbers Samson has/is, its gotta account for something, I really believe so.

Its possible Samson becomes no more than an AHL'er like Bayda, Aucoin, Ryan, St. Pierre, etc.. I guess only time will tell.

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02-21-2010, 07:25 AM
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Cory Lavalette
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I still don't know who called him an AHL lifer.

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02-21-2010, 10:18 AM
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I still don't know who called him an AHL lifer.
Nobody did, I said it in my own conversation. I was feeding a bit off of Vagrants comments of the phenomenon of an AHL scorer and the branding a player of Samsons age and relative performance as such.


I think with the lack of credit Samson gets, some feel he will be another Bayda, Aucoin, Ryan, etc. And that's a good estimation too. I don't intend to throw stones at any anyone or their respective opinion or debate what's just a guess of a projection, I just feel at this early in Samsons career and age, it confuses me as to why his consistent progression in production doesn't seem to count for much. Again, I'm fully aware numbers can be of no or minimal indication of a young players future. But on a team that lacks RW depth in the prospect cupboard and top end prospects, a decent goal scoring winger who has made the transition to the AHL with relative ease such as Samson has could find himself a top 6 spot if he is worthy of it. Again, we will see what he does but I think his potential could be that of a top 6 forward if he can prov e to score at the NHL level just as he did in Junior and now the AHL.

I think, and I can't speak for Vagrant, but with how Samson has performed at such a young age I believe his rated ceiling should be higher. Something like top 6 potential but he may fall into a bottom 6/AHL tweener if you will. Kinda a boom or bust. I guess I just feel this early on in the game the numbers combined with such a young age have to count for something in the recognition and projection department. Afterall Samsons doing what a lot of 1st round picks or simply drafted players in general can't do at 19-22 years old. I just find it to be impressive. It just seems even if the kid scored 40 this year that he'd still be in the same boat.

All in all the story of Samson will be one told likely by next year or two. There will likley, or I should say hopefully be room for Samson to show his stuff and be given a chance at a scoring role in the NHL, I think his numbers and young age have earned an opportunity for him to make it or break it.

I always look around the league at these young kids, drafted or not, highly rated or not, heck.. a little older or not --- Peverley, and wonder to myself, why can't or don't we ever have that gem who just sorta pops up outa nowhere? Is it not possible for us to pull the lucky straw just once and get one? Or how about a training camp surprise? I guess I just have hopes for Samson to translate his game to the NHL as he's had minimal problems doing so in the AHL. In the end, I just want the kid to get a true chance here, something we rarely ever give because we love our vets and if you aren't a 1st round pick we'll likely overlook you. Either he makes it or he breaks it, I just don't want him to go elsewhere and succeed and leave us talking about a kid who broke into the AHL with relative ease for his young age, wasn't given a chance here and now he's scoring 20-25 goals for a team not named Carolina.

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02-21-2010, 01:50 PM
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i agree with cory to be honest. nothing about samson's game looks nhl to me. to be fair i thought exactly the same of larose, the skating didnt look good enough, the skill didnt seem to be enough. maybe samson can get there on heart like chad did. ive watched the ahl highlights and his brief stint and i know its not enough but his skating was choppy and he just didnt have the look of more than an ahl'er as a scorer or a 3/4th line guy in the nhl at best. he reminds me of a rougher skating aucoin.

chaput looks like a better skater to me, a bit more fluid and natural. i think samson has put it together better to this point, which isnt to say he has "peaked" but maybe there isnt that much more growth left in him, whereas guys like chaput arent there yet in terms of putting it together yet. smaller guys figure it out earlier.its like samsonov and thorton. everyone thought joe was a bust and samsonov was the cats meow at 18, cuz sergei was done growing and had leaned to use his body better, obviously he had hit his ceiling already. he was never better than he was those first couple of years. i know as of their listings that jerome is only two inches shorter but after viewing them both jrome comes off as a "smaller" player to me. ironically, i dont view chaput as more than a third liner anyway - i just think at this point he has a higher chance of reaching his goal of third line energy guy who can pop in a few goals. i think like larose, samson wont develop much further - tho i think he deserves a shot based on his play so far. its just chaput was drafted as that guy with all the natural attributes, whereas jerome has shown over and over he can score at higher levels than predicted but thats the majority of his game. is he gonna be a top 6 guys for us? seems unlikely, and he doesnt seem to have the rest to be a third line energy guy whereas chaput is more likely for that role to me. chaput can play a bigger game and has been more of a pk energy guy in his junior career and jerome has been more of a scorer only.

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02-21-2010, 03:00 PM
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I definitely see what you're saying Bleedgreen, and agree. I feel the same way in regard to Dodge, who I'm fairly high on in terms of what he could possibly be to our bottom 6/PK in the next couple years.

I'm not saying Samson is a shoe in by any means, I guess his production combined with his young age at the AHL level has just caught me a bit. Even if Samson isn't a top 6, which I agree he may not and likely doesnt have the tools and all around game for, he could be one of those 3rd line scorers much like Cullen (though not as flashy/finesse) who is solid on the 3rd line and can pot 15 maybe 20 but a little questionable and realistically not a 2nd line or top 6 guy. That's really where I see a guy like Samson should have a bit higher of a potential ceiling. He doesn't seem like your typical skilled, flashy, scoring winger, but he continues to get the job done and show results. Which is why I believe his ceiling should be looked upon a little higher, but that's just me. For me, like I said in an above post, Samson is a boom/bust player in terms of whether or not he can make any sort of impact at the NHL level or not. He's done it with relative ease in his transition to the AHL at 19-22 years old that I guess it just intruques me a bit and I'm not a guy who gets caught up in numbers, something I've learned over my years watching Junior hockey. Maybe its just his age and his contributions that get me. All in all I just hope we give him an opportunity to see if he can transition his game to the next level. Something he's done from junior to the AHL.

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02-21-2010, 04:15 PM
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There comes a point where offensive production becomes a talent of its own, in my opinion. The league is littered with guys that have not one discerning quality that supersedes all the rest but still manage production. Cory Stillman was a guy like that. Virtually everything he was good at by the time he arrived here, he gleaned from experience. I don't intend to make the 1 for 1 leap that Samson = Stillman because that's not true. But there are cases where hockey players improve not because their natural skill improves or because they better learn to utilize their immense abilities, but they improve for improvement's sake. They gain experience, learn what to do in what situation, learn the game inside and out.

Where as some seem to be using Samson's three years of AHL experience at 22 as a detriment against what he is doing now, I think being that young with that amount of experience is a REALLY good thing for him.

Tlusty to me also looks like a guy that doesn't have one particular attribute that sets him apart. In fact, a lot of his strengths are strengths that Samson has. Yet because of his pedigree, we view him differently.

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02-21-2010, 05:50 PM
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End of the 2nd in Hershey it's 3-3 - Samson scored twice after we went 3-1 down.

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02-21-2010, 05:58 PM
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It could also be said for a guy like Drayson Bowman. For me he is a tremenus boom/bust. He carries one true quality that could or should easily carry over to the NHL. His shot. But, if that trait doesn't carry over or isn't enough, what will Bowman be? Likely your typical AHL'er who seems to pot 30-40 rather easily and dazzle you in the AHL but can't break 10 in the NHL. But just because Drayson carries that shot his potential is more appealing than that of a kid who isn't as flashy but has played 3 solid and very respectable years in the AHL and appears to be getting better with each passing year.

Boychuk may be a bit of a boom or bust himself. Some see the potential in there of a Derek Roy while others see if he doesn't live up to that ceiling he may be another Chad LaRose.


As Vagrant pointed out, Tlusty is another. While he carries some flash and dazzle, speed and hands, he gets recognized. So far Tlusty hasn't been able to put it together but we'll see what he does when he gets his one true chance. I'd say from Rats fans input Samson is the better of the two at the AHL level, does that account for anything? Doesn't appear so in Samsons case.

I guess my point ties into Vagrants. All young players have their pros and cons, strong points and weak points. Some are flashy while others are more under the radar but regardless the production is still there.

With Samson its a little funny. If Boychuk or Bowman put up Samsons rookie numbers many would likely be ready to insert them into the lineup because they potted 20 goals first year pro. Nevermind they're not great in their own end, carry some flaws of their own and are in my opinion boom or bust prospects in terms of their potential impact at the NHL level. Samson pots 20-35, albeit quietly for 3 straight years beginning at a ripe 19 years of age and gets what? He seems to go quietly about his business getting it done on the scoresheet and improving each season. And reading a Rats fan say when Samson is on the ice each game things just seem to happen has to say something along with his numbers. That tells me he is a fairly dominant player at the AHL level. Like I said, he likely could have scored 40 this season (he may even reach close to 35) and he likely still gets little to no attention for it. I just think there are players out there that don't always carry a trait or two that are obvious or flashy if you will, yet whatever it is they do, gets the job done efficiently.

Btw, this isn't a reply to anyone nor is it me disagreeing with Samsons ranking and trying to jam my point of view into anyones head, etc. Talking about this young player just seems like an interesting topic so forgive me for rambling on.

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02-21-2010, 06:09 PM
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Bouchard turtles from Bowman, scores on ensuing powerplay. 4-3.

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02-21-2010, 06:20 PM
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Bouchard turtles from Bowman, scores on ensuing powerplay. 4-3.
I hate playing the Bears, and it's not even because we lose most of the time...

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02-21-2010, 08:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vagrant View Post
Tlusty to me also looks like a guy that doesn't have one particular attribute that sets him apart. In fact, a lot of his strengths are strengths that Samson has. Yet because of his pedigree, we view him differently.
Tlusty has abilities in his own end that samson..well...no, and i am sure the coaching staff is well aware of that.

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02-21-2010, 09:02 PM
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Tlusty the defensive wiz..

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02-22-2010, 09:09 AM
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i agree with cory to be honest. nothing about samson's game looks nhl to me. to be fair i thought exactly the same of larose, the skating didnt look good enough, the skill didnt seem to be enough. maybe samson can get there on heart like chad did. ive watched the ahl highlights and his brief stint and i know its not enough but his skating was choppy and he just didnt have the look of more than an ahl'er as a scorer or a 3/4th line guy in the nhl at best. he reminds me of a rougher skating aucoin.

chaput looks like a better skater to me, a bit more fluid and natural. i think samson has put it together better to this point, which isnt to say he has "peaked" but maybe there isnt that much more growth left in him, whereas guys like chaput arent there yet in terms of putting it together yet. smaller guys figure it out earlier.its like samsonov and thorton. everyone thought joe was a bust and samsonov was the cats meow at 18, cuz sergei was done growing and had leaned to use his body better, obviously he had hit his ceiling already. he was never better than he was those first couple of years. i know as of their listings that jerome is only two inches shorter but after viewing them both jrome comes off as a "smaller" player to me. ironically, i dont view chaput as more than a third liner anyway - i just think at this point he has a higher chance of reaching his goal of third line energy guy who can pop in a few goals. i think like larose, samson wont develop much further - tho i think he deserves a shot based on his play so far. its just chaput was drafted as that guy with all the natural attributes, whereas jerome has shown over and over he can score at higher levels than predicted but thats the majority of his game. is he gonna be a top 6 guys for us? seems unlikely, and he doesnt seem to have the rest to be a third line energy guy whereas chaput is more likely for that role to me. chaput can play a bigger game and has been more of a pk energy guy in his junior career and jerome has been more of a scorer only.
To be honest, Chaput was probably going to rate a little higher until I talked to Daniels. He was the one guy he seemed kind of disappointed with, as fast as his progression this season.

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