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Old
03-07-2010, 11:32 PM
  #101
Gilligans Island
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If we get knocked out of the 1st or get to the 2nd and play crappy, blow it up.

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03-07-2010, 11:41 PM
  #102
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I think if we're out in the first or second round one has to make some changes to the core of the team. To me this is move out one or two core players, replace them with others or some picks/prospects. This should be easy as Nabber and Patty
are UFAs. If we out of the playoffs early I'll bet now that he'll be gone as starter.
Patty is a great player in his prime and he's everything we'd want as a player - it's hard to imagine why we'd not want him back.

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Old
03-07-2010, 11:42 PM
  #103
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilligans Island View Post
If we get knocked out of the 1st or get to the 2nd and play crappy, blow it up.
I'm asking what Doug would do, not us. It's business after all.

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Old
03-07-2010, 11:47 PM
  #104
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Originally Posted by Gilligans Island View Post
Have better guesses or justification for your statement?

I can see Patty's being tough - I'm banking on the home-town discount... He could make a killing on the open market but we all know that.

Pavs I think is well inline with what he can get. Zajac's at 3.88, Weiss is at 3.1,

Seto's value has declined so a 1 year deal may be best for him and the team. No way he's close to what some were speculating Kessel value.

Nabby, I really think is the least important. If he doesn't take a 4m deal, let him go.
I've made a few long winded posts about that in recent months, so I figured I wouldn't bore the thread with arguing about semantics.

I think Marleau will get at least 6.5m. His play has earned him a raise if anything, and asking him to take a pay cut would just be insulting. DW is a players GM, and I don't see him doing that. He's also never signed a long term 'salary cap evading' deal, and I don't expect him to start now. The only way Marleau takes a pay cut is if he is desperate to stay here and DW basically says "look, we have Heatley, we'd love you to stay but we just can't afford it".

Nabby's salary will be determined totally by his play in the playoffs. Because of that, I expect him to be brilliant. If Nabby has a great playoff run, he'll be worth 6m. If he does not, he'll be worth 4. After the Olympic mess everyone is waiting to see if Nabby is a big game player after all.

I agree, Pavs will probably get between 3.6-4. Knowing how DW loves to overpay, 4 is probably better to expect. I read your first post wrong and thought you said 2.6 not 3.6.

Seto, as off as he's been, has a lot of potential and everyone knows it. If he hits the market someone will grossly overpay for him.
I expect him to get no less than 3m. I'd rather not sign him to a 1 year deal as it makes him a UFA at the end of that year. I'd rather trade him now and get maximum value unless it's going to be a 2-3 year deal.

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03-07-2010, 11:49 PM
  #105
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilligans Island View Post
Have better guesses or justification for your statement?

I can see Patty's being tough - I'm banking on the home-town discount... He could make a killing on the open market but we all know that.

Pavs I think is well inline with what he can get. Zajac's at 3.88, Weiss is at 3.1,

Seto's value has declined so a 1 year deal may be best for him and the team. No way he's close to what some were speculating Kessel value.

Nabby, I really think is the least important. If he doesn't take a 4m deal, let him go.
Your not gonna sign an RFA like Seto to a one year deal. Fish or cut bait.

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Old
03-07-2010, 11:49 PM
  #106
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Originally Posted by Davidhye View Post
I'm asking what Doug would do, not us. It's business after all.
It depends. If it's only about winning, I think he moves JT (if DW isn't fired in the first place). If JT doesn't do it this year, I don't think even DW can deny that he just isn't a leader on the ice.

If it's about business (and we know it is) than JT almost single-handedly guarantee's a playoff showing. That brings in a lot of revenue. No one is San Jose is going to riot, so honestly, I don't expect to see Joe going anywhere. A pay cut maybe once his contract is up, at most.

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Old
03-07-2010, 11:52 PM
  #107
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Ah, didn't realize Seto was UFA after next year. Makes it tough b/c he hasn't really earned a significant raise this year. Could see dealing him for a top 4 then (instead of or with Clowe - in which case, we'd better get a top 6 prospect back).

Seto, I think, fetches more than Clowe. Packaged together maybe we could land Suter or Burns? One can dream.

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Old
03-07-2010, 11:56 PM
  #108
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilligans Island View Post
Ah, didn't realize Seto was UFA after next year. Makes it tough b/c he hasn't really earned a significant raise this year. Could see dealing him for a top 4 then (instead of or with Clowe - in which case, we'd better get a top 6 prospect back).

Seto, I think, fetches more than Clowe. Packaged together maybe we could land Suter or Burns? One can dream.
My understanding of the rules about UFA status are not the best, but I'm fairly sure that is the case. If not, someone please correct me.

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Old
03-08-2010, 12:06 AM
  #109
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Originally Posted by Gilligans Island View Post
Ah, didn't realize Seto was UFA after next year. Makes it tough b/c he hasn't really earned a significant raise this year. Could see dealing him for a top 4 then (instead of or with Clowe - in which case, we'd better get a top 6 prospect back).

Seto, I think, fetches more than Clowe. Packaged together maybe we could land Suter or Burns? One can dream.
im fairly certain he isnt a UFA after next season. i think he is the year after.

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Old
03-08-2010, 12:25 AM
  #110
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how many other gm's were able to acquire three top ten players in their primes?

firing dw would set this franchise back regardless of his stupid decisions this past off-season or the impending playoff choke

you cant just replace the respect he has around the league and the experience that comes with it

and tmac hasnt even been here two seasons yet

jeez i cant wait to see the reactions after the playoffs

WAIVE THE TEAM RABBLE RABBLE

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Old
03-08-2010, 01:32 AM
  #111
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hockeyball View Post
My understanding of the rules about UFA status are not the best, but I'm fairly sure that is the case. If not, someone please correct me.
You are very incorrect. Seto has is not a UFA until he is 27. You aren't close. He won't even be arbitration eligible this go round. Jack Johnson was in the same situation in LA, not arbitration eligible, and received a 2 year contract at about 1.5mil/year. If he had arbitration, it would easily have been at or above $3mil. The only leverage Seto has is if some team tenders him an offersheet, he can't go to arbitration.

My two cents, DW would be foolish to lose Marleau. Most teams go with 3 players with speed in their top 6 forwards. If they don't, it shows, no matter the talent. It isn't the 90s any more. Right now the Sharks are limping along with Marleau and Seto. I hope everyone noticed how there was an immediate improvement when Malhotra was promoted even though he isn't a true top 6. Buying speed and size in one player on the open market will probably cost as much as keeping Marleau. The speed issue is one of my biggest concerns for the playoffs as checking is close and speed can be THE difference maker. As an example, the Canucks improved their playoff performance by promoting Burrows, Kesler and Raymond to full time top 6. It changed their play . . . a lot.

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03-08-2010, 04:13 AM
  #112
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Here's the problem that fascinates me with this team. We seem to overpay players by paying them for their potential, and not their current worth. Then, we end up eventually trading players that have spots on this team but can't be held based on their salary.

For example-

Clowe- I believe he is overpaid. He has had a very average year. However, it seemed like last year "power forwards" were all the rage. (I'm not even sure I would classify Clowe as a power forward, but many did/do). Players like Lucic and Clowe were paid handsomely. How'd that work out for us? Would it have been better to offer him lower and if he gets an offer sheet then we take picks?

Carle - Obvious overpayment based on a stellar rookie season. Combined with RW's wrath against some rookies, and you have a bust.

Huskins - WTF?


However, I understand that Seto, Pavs, and Marleau all need to get signed. I just wonder/worry at what cost. It is impractical, but it would be AWESOME to have a team where you basically ask players to take less for the TEAM. However, even though we like to think our players live and breath teal, they do not. It is a business, and at the end of the day it is about money. Furthermore, with contracts like the ones to Heatley, Thornton, and Boyle, it is hard to justify others taking less when they make top dollars, even though 2 of the 3 were not signed by DW.

EDIT:
Also, is there any team that uses the pay a little bit less for the sake of the team method? I doubt it, and the closest one may see to it would be Detroit.

Also, IMO having someone like Manny signed at such a low amount has been a godsend to this team. We'd have a serious hole without him, and next year he's probably gone based on what he deserves to get.

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Old
03-08-2010, 08:51 AM
  #113
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
You are very incorrect. Seto has is not a UFA until he is 27. You aren't close. He won't even be arbitration eligible this go round. Jack Johnson was in the same situation in LA, not arbitration eligible, and received a 2 year contract at about 1.5mil/year. If he had arbitration, it would easily have been at or above $3mil. The only leverage Seto has is if some team tenders him an offersheet, he can't go to arbitration.

My two cents, DW would be foolish to lose Marleau. Most teams go with 3 players with speed in their top 6 forwards. If they don't, it shows, no matter the talent. It isn't the 90s any more. Right now the Sharks are limping along with Marleau and Seto. I hope everyone noticed how there was an immediate improvement when Malhotra was promoted even though he isn't a true top 6. Buying speed and size in one player on the open market will probably cost as much as keeping Marleau. The speed issue is one of my biggest concerns for the playoffs as checking is close and speed can be THE difference maker. As an example, the Canucks improved their playoff performance by promoting Burrows, Kesler and Raymond to full time top 6. It changed their play . . . a lot.
Ah, thanks Easy. I thought it was based to some degree on the amount of contracts he has had, not just his age.

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03-08-2010, 09:10 AM
  #114
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
You are very incorrect. Seto has is not a UFA until he is 27. You aren't close. He won't even be arbitration eligible this go round. Jack Johnson was in the same situation in LA, not arbitration eligible, and received a 2 year contract at about 1.5mil/year. If he had arbitration, it would easily have been at or above $3mil. The only leverage Seto has is if some team tenders him an offersheet, he can't go to arbitration.

My two cents, DW would be foolish to lose Marleau. Most teams go with 3 players with speed in their top 6 forwards. If they don't, it shows, no matter the talent. It isn't the 90s any more. Right now the Sharks are limping along with Marleau and Seto. I hope everyone noticed how there was an immediate improvement when Malhotra was promoted even though he isn't a true top 6. Buying speed and size in one player on the open market will probably cost as much as keeping Marleau. The speed issue is one of my biggest concerns for the playoffs as checking is close and speed can be THE difference maker. As an example, the Canucks improved their playoff performance by promoting Burrows, Kesler and Raymond to full time top 6. It changed their play . . . a lot.
Amen

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03-08-2010, 12:13 PM
  #115
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So, it seems the 3 big offseason questions are:

1. Nabby vs. Clowe? For cap space reasons, I think it'll come down to these two. Huskins and Mitchell may/could be moved but neither has a big enough cap hit. Even w/ Blake's $4m coming off the books, we'll need cap space to re-sign Patty, Pavs and Seto. I'd also hope DW prioritizes Manny.

(Seto perhaps could be dealt but then I worry about the loss-of-speed factor as Easy cited).

2. If Nabby is re-signed, can Clowe land us a top 4 dman or do we have to go the UFA route? Given our poor history re-signing UFAs, a trade seems the more successful route.

3. I agree with Easy in that once Manny's speed was added to the top 6, the offense opened up. I think there's a correlation there. Can we acquire (or sign a UFA) a speedy forward for the Top 6? It could be a tweener like Manny. Not sure who's out there to sign. Or, one of the AHLers like McGinn or Ferreiro fill this void.

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03-08-2010, 12:53 PM
  #116
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Malhotra deserves to be resigned, but the salary cap may say otherwise.

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03-08-2010, 01:15 PM
  #117
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Originally Posted by Chairman Mallard View Post
Malhotra deserves to be resigned, but the salary cap may say otherwise.
Agree - wonder what he wants.

His comments last off-season *seemed* to indicate that he wants to find a long-term home with the "right" franchise and was hopeful the Sharks could be it. We'll see if he meant it (assuming Sharks can give a fair offer) or if he goes for top-dollar.

I think DW could go up to $2m per year.

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03-08-2010, 01:55 PM
  #118
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Davidhye View Post
So like, if we get knocked out in the first round, is Doug Wilson gonna resign Marleau and Nabokov? Will he trade Thornton and Heatley?
If we get knocked out in the first round, all Doug Wilson is going to be doing is looking for a new job. At least, that's what should happen.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
You are very incorrect. Seto has is not a UFA until he is 27. You aren't close. He won't even be arbitration eligible this go round. Jack Johnson was in the same situation in LA, not arbitration eligible, and received a 2 year contract at about 1.5mil/year. If he had arbitration, it would easily have been at or above $3mil. The only leverage Seto has is if some team tenders him an offersheet, he can't go to arbitration.

My two cents, DW would be foolish to lose Marleau. Most teams go with 3 players with speed in their top 6 forwards. If they don't, it shows, no matter the talent. It isn't the 90s any more. Right now the Sharks are limping along with Marleau and Seto. I hope everyone noticed how there was an immediate improvement when Malhotra was promoted even though he isn't a true top 6. Buying speed and size in one player on the open market will probably cost as much as keeping Marleau. The speed issue is one of my biggest concerns for the playoffs as checking is close and speed can be THE difference maker. As an example, the Canucks improved their playoff performance by promoting Burrows, Kesler and Raymond to full time top 6. It changed their play . . . a lot.

And that is pretty much why I think exchanging Ehrhoff and Michalek for Heatley and Blake made this team worse rather than better, despite Heatley's good numbers so far this year.

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03-08-2010, 01:58 PM
  #119
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Originally Posted by CrazedZooChimp View Post
If we get knocked out in the first round, all Doug Wilson is going to be doing is looking for a new job. At least, that's what should happen.




And that is pretty much why I think exchanging Ehrhoff and Michalek for Heatley and Blake made this team worse rather than better, despite Heatley's good numbers so far this year.
The error dump made it worse. Blake should have never been resigned. The team needs another quick winger in the top 6 and honestly I would like the team to have Ginny play some spot duty up there. Hes not fast but hes decently quick, around if not faster than manny.

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03-08-2010, 01:59 PM
  #120
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Originally Posted by Gilligans Island View Post
Agree - wonder what he wants.

His comments last off-season *seemed* to indicate that he wants to find a long-term home with the "right" franchise and was hopeful the Sharks could be it. We'll see if he meant it (assuming Sharks can give a fair offer) or if he goes for top-dollar.

I think DW could go up to $2m per year.
Manny signing with the Sharks at the salary he did leads me to believe that he and DW have an understanding that if he was a fit, DW would do him right. I think he may be a priority during the offseason. Of course some of that depends on the PO's as does most of the offseason movement we will see.

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03-08-2010, 02:44 PM
  #121
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I was just wondering that.

W/ the below 22-man roster, we'd be at $55.9m in total cap and could afford up to $4.5m per for a top 4 dman. I assume the cap stays the same as this year.

Guesses for re-signing amounts in red bold.

C
Joe Thornton $7.200
Joe Pavelski $3.670 (multi-year to his UFA year)
Manny Malhotra $1.500 (for 2 yrs)
Scott Nichol $0.900 (1 or 2 yrs)

Logan Couture $0.815

Lw
Dany Heatley $7.500
Patrick Marleau $5.250 (5-7 yr deal)
Jamie McGinn $0.677
Frazier McLaren $0.500

RW
Devin Setoguchi $2.750 (1yr deal)
Jed Ortmeyer $0.600 (1 yr)
Brad Staubitz $0.500 (1 yr)

Benn Ferreiro $0.635

D
Dan Boyle $6.667
top 4 dman $4.500
Marc-Edouard Vlasic $3.100
Douglas Murray $2.500
Nik Wallin $1.000 (1 or 2 yrs)
Jason Demers $0.543
Jay Leach $0.500 (1 yr)

G
Evgeni Nabokov $4.000 (2 yr deal)

Thomas Griess $0.550


Moves:
- Trade Clowe, Mitchell and Huskins for a top4 dman (or sign a UFA) and picks/prospects.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilligans Island View Post
If we get knocked out of the 1st or get to the 2nd and play crappy, blow it up.
I believe that, no matter how far we go these playoffs, Naby is to be let go free. There are a number of young solid goalies looking to be numbers 1's around the league (eg. Bernier, Ersberg in L.A., Schneider in Vancouver) but, because of the number 1 in front of them they aren't getting the chance. We could swing a good move to acquire one of these and, focus some heavier dollars which would then be available on our own free agents and a potential other in the market, if interested in someone available. Another plus to this; Greiss would then actually get some little extra playtime to settle himself in as a solid backup for us. Will be tough to put him in steady at this time of the year with how little he has played this season if needed at any time now or soon.

I do like how you added Couture, Demers, Ferriero & McGinn in the mix as, at some point, T.M. is going to have to get it in his head that, we will need some of our young guys to showcase themselves much more than he is giving the chance this year (eg. forwards whom are offensive potentials NOT to be played on checking lines, with the likes of Staubitz and Ortmeyer and Nichols. The latter two are good players but, have their limited roles). Yes, being younger they've (some of the young guys givin a little chance) made some mistakes, but no more than some we have whom are regulars up here and making more than them in the dollars sense.l


[QUOTE=CrazedZooChimp;24377307]If we get knocked out in the first round, all Doug Wilson is going to be doing is looking for a new job. At least, that's what should happen.
And that is pretty much why I think exchanging Ehrhoff and Michalek for Heatley and Blake made this team worse rather than better, despite Heatley's good numbers so far this year.[/QUOTE

Offensively, incorrect as we are a lot better. Defensively, correct as we are a lot weaker. The Heater move was really really good, a player we were missing even since big Joe came over. The Ehrhoff debacle was just that, a terrible move via D.W.
Should have and could have found other means to make dollars available. As D.W. and T.M. have been stating quite a bit for the last little while, we are not blowing teams away but instead, we are beating teams the way it takes come the playoffs, grinding, comebacks, tight/battled wins, any which way we find it. Different than how we won many of our games last season.


Last edited by 19sharks19: 03-08-2010 at 02:52 PM.
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03-08-2010, 03:09 PM
  #122
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Offensively, incorrect as we are a lot better. Defensively, correct as we are a lot weaker.
Go with the numbers:

Offense
09-10 3.26 goals/game
08-09 3.13 goals/game

Defense
09-10 2.46 goals against/game
08-09 2.49 goals against/game

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03-08-2010, 03:27 PM
  #123
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Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
Go with the numbers:

Offense
09-10 3.26 goals/game
08-09 3.13 goals/game

Defense
09-10 2.46 goals against/game
08-09 2.49 goals against/game
I'd attribute some of that to Nabby's overall play. He was good last year, he's been incredible this year.

Our defense is worse, and our PP and zone entry are also hurt by the loss of Ehrhoff. That is going to be tough to quantify with any one particular stat.

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03-08-2010, 04:00 PM
  #124
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i wouldn't count last years goals per game totals as a indication of what team was more offensive this years or last years either.

considering last years team was like 2 completely different season's rolled into 1.

where the 1st half the sharks were averaging something like 4-5 goals a game, and the 2nd half where they were averaging 2-3 goals a game.

this year is a lot more consistent scoring.

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03-08-2010, 04:02 PM
  #125
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hockeyball View Post
I'd attribute some of that to Nabby's overall play. He was good last year, he's been incredible this year.

Our defense is worse, and our PP and zone entry are also hurt by the loss of Ehrhoff. That is going to be tough to quantify with any one particular stat.
I agree. It also doesn't account for blowout games which pad the offensive stats (eg Calgary). I agree with your general assessment and put them up to show that the Sharks were not dramatically better offensively. I am surprised that their defense represented by goals against is not worse. In terms of points earned in the standings per game, they are a smidge worse.

IMO, what the Sharks did shifted from whence they got their offense and defense. The blueline offense is way down, the top line offense is way up and the defense is from somewhat better play (better +/-) of the lower lines. They also went from mix and match d pairings to being very careful on d pair matchups. They did go to careful matchups in the playoffs last year, but reg season was not so much. That observation about matchups comes from the variance in qualcomp at behindthenet.

I also cringed at the elite sniper thing. At this point in his career, Marleau is an elite sniper. I really don't like the grass is greener game. I would also note that Pavs has the qualities of an elite sniper and will likely be one later in his career. To me an elite sniper is a shooter who picks his target, not just a guy who fires a ton of shots.

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