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Decline of the US Dollar

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Old
10-08-2009, 10:54 AM
  #26
Enstrom39
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Originally Posted by bleed_oil View Post

Actually I have been a commodity bull and US dollar bear the the whole time. Short term trends dont interest me and cannot be predicted.
As for taking my "advice" had you taken my advice and invested in commodities and gold and went short the US dollar you would have done quite well since start of the year.
http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t...ed_oil&page=20
I notice that you scurried away and failed to answer me questions back in January as well. Mod: deleted.

Anyways do you have something to contradict either of the two news articles or are you just going to throw everything at the wall and hope something sticks.
And so how is Edmonton/Alberta's economy doing?
Is it completely de-coupled from the USA/Canada?
Using "start of they year" is complete baloney. If I had listened to your advice back when you made it, I would have incurred huge losses in October of 2008, using January of 2009 is a nice attempt to ignore this fact.

I noticed that you stopped posting back in Octorber when your predictions blew up. So I guess your posting varies with the exchange rate.

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Old
10-08-2009, 10:54 AM
  #27
David_99
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Originally Posted by GHOSTofMAROONSroad View Post
The USD is going down and I've place my bets on that and done well. A lot of my money is in oil and gold. What the exchange rate today btw?

GHOST
94.66

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10-08-2009, 11:02 AM
  #28
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I'll start worrying about the USD as it pertains to hockey once players demand to be paid in Canadian dollars. Let me know when that happens.

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10-08-2009, 11:07 AM
  #29
Enstrom39
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Around 80% of Canada's exports go to the USA. Whatever happens to our economy--your economy will be affected.

http://www.international.gc.ca/canad...mages/1945.jpg

The US State of California alone has almost as much trade with Canada as does the entire nation of CHINA.

http://www.international.gc.ca/canad...mages/1915.jpg

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10-08-2009, 11:28 AM
  #30
bleed_oil
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Originally Posted by The Falconer View Post
And so how is Edmonton/Alberta's economy doing?
Is it completely de-coupled from the USA/Canada?
Using "start of they year" is complete baloney. If I had listened to your advice back when you made it, I would have incurred huge losses in October of 2008, using January of 2009 is a nice attempt to ignore this fact.

I noticed that you stopped posting back in Octorber when your predictions blew up. So I guess your posting varies with the exchange rate.
Dear god man, do you do any research before you say something... heres a trend on the Vanguard Global Energy Sector ETF.
http://www.google.ca/finance?q=NYSE%3AIXC
Up 16% since October 2008.....

mod:delete


Last edited by mouser: 10-08-2009 at 12:04 PM. Reason: not necessary
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Old
10-08-2009, 11:57 AM
  #31
King_Stannis
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I'll leave the prognostication of the demise of the dollar to others, but I will point out that right after that article appeared it was vehemenently denied by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and some of the other Gulf states.


Quote:
The USD is sinking big time just as we predicted. You can only print so much of it, but there is nothing to back it up except a lot of debt.

GHOST
And, of course, the largest economy (by a large margin) and the greatest consumer market on the planet.

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10-08-2009, 12:01 PM
  #32
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Originally Posted by King_Stannis View Post
I'll leave the prognostication of the demise of the dollar to others, but I will point out that right after that article appeared it was vehemenently denied by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and some of the other Gulf states.




And, of course, the largest economy (by a large margin) and the greatest consumer market on the planet.
Yeah, but the USD has been going down, down, down, and the US debt and account balances are going up. Am I wrong?

GHOST

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Old
10-08-2009, 12:05 PM
  #33
bleed_oil
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Falconer View Post
I was talking about exchange rates and you were talking about commodities.

And as another poster has pointed out your selection of time frames is highly favorable to the point you want to make.
MY TIME frame
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Falconer View Post
If I had listened to your advice back when you made it, I would have incurred huge losses in October of 2008, using January of 2009 is a nice attempt to ignore this fact.
I think its your time frame, not mine.
mod:delete
http://www.google.ca/finance?q=CADUSD
The Canadian dollar is up on a year to year basis.

mod:delete


Last edited by mouser: 10-08-2009 at 12:09 PM. Reason: not necessary
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Old
10-08-2009, 12:05 PM
  #34
King_Stannis
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Originally Posted by GHOSTofMAROONSroad View Post
Yeah, but the USD has been going down, down, down, and the US debt and account balances are going up. Am I wrong?

GHOST
No doubt about it, but I would caution against kneejerk overreaction, or even schaudenfraude. If some of you folks get your wish the dollar would bottom out and then you'd complain about how affordable US goods are and how much your own trade deficit is growing.

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10-08-2009, 12:06 PM
  #35
bleed_oil
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Originally Posted by King_Stannis View Post
I'll leave the prognostication of the demise of the dollar to others, but I will point out that right after that article appeared it was vehemenently denied by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and some of the other Gulf states.
You may have noticed in the article that denials were expected.
Also please note that the Asia Times has posted an article today with independant sources confirming the discussions.

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10-08-2009, 12:08 PM
  #36
bleed_oil
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Quote:
Originally Posted by King_Stannis View Post
No doubt about it, but I would caution against kneejerk overreaction, or even schaudenfraude. If some of you folks get your wish the dollar would bottom out and then you'd complain about how affordable US goods are and how much your own trade deficit is growing.
Actually King, lets be clear on something. As a whole, the USD collapsing is NOT a good thing. It will create massive instability, inflation and turmoil.
My thread, and this discussion should however be limited to the impact it would have the economics of the NHL.

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10-08-2009, 12:09 PM
  #37
bleed_oil
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Originally Posted by The Falconer View Post
So if GM Canada can't sell cars to the USA that is going to have zero effect on Ontario's economy?

Some commodities can be resold easily to foreign markets, but to suggest that a declining US economy will not have a major impact on Canada's economy is downright silly. Canada's entire economy is not composed of resource extraction businesses.
For gods sake man. Understand something - we are not discussing economies but simply forex.

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10-08-2009, 01:53 PM
  #38
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Sorry to bust your bubble.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...lar_conspiracy

A little more reliable than some article published in a British tabloid.


Last edited by Matt714*: 10-08-2009 at 01:58 PM.
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Old
10-08-2009, 02:09 PM
  #39
bleed_oil
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Originally Posted by Matt714 View Post
Sorry to bust your bubble.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...lar_conspiracy

A little more reliable than some article published in a British tabloid.
Actually the author makes a good point. In reference to the Oil market alone the total demand for US dollars is not as significant as one would expect.
I think the original article from the Independent any number of other sources that are short the US dollar would argue that the issue is more related to the overall systemic change in markets caused by such an action, i.e. if Oil is no longer priced in USD what happens to all other commodities? If commodity prices are no longer in USD, it would seem plausible that countries will begin to diversify there foreign exchange base away from dollars.

Also note this bit from the article:
"This raises a more serious issue affecting the demand for dollars, which is the dollar's status as an international reserve currency. Currently the dollar is by far the preferred currency, but others, notably the euro, are gaining ground. A switch away from the dollar will lower its value, but this is hardly anything to fear: In actuality, it was and is an official policy goal of both the George W. Bush and Barack Obama administrations."


Note this is exactly whats being argued on this thread, so in effect your article supports this position.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Matt714 View Post
Sorry to bust your bubble.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...lar_conspiracy

A little more reliable than some article published in a British tabloid.
I think you are unfamiliar with Robert Fisk or The Independent if you would explain it away as "some British Tabloid"
Also the relevance or "importance" of the story speaks for itself when one cross references it with price action in currency or precious metals markets.
http://www.google.ca/finance?q=NYSE%3AGLD
http://www.google.com/finance?q=EURUSD

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Old
10-08-2009, 02:37 PM
  #40
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Originally Posted by bleed_oil View Post
Actually King, lets be clear on something. As a whole, the USD collapsing is NOT a good thing. It will create massive instability, inflation and turmoil.
My thread, and this discussion should however be limited to the impact it would have the economics of the NHL.
No need to worry, we'll be annexing you sooner or later. Welcome to the family, ya'll.

No seriously, we don't have to worry about any of that, because, as Bruin fan Dennis Leary said, "We got the Bombs!".

No, really seriously this time, while a lower USD might have made it more viable for Canadian franchises back when, it likely won't have any affect on current markets in the U.S. Nashville/Phoenix isn't going to pack up and move to Medicine Hat because the USD went down a few cents here and there.

What it will likely do is make an expansion franchise more likley at one point or another. Remember still though, the market has to be able to support the franchise. Value of the USD low or high, there really aren't that many Canadian cities that have the population and infrastructure to support an NHL franchise, that don't already have one. Toronto II, Winnepeg, maybe Quebec?

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Old
10-08-2009, 02:44 PM
  #41
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Secret meetings have already been held by finance ministers and central bank governors in Russia, China, Japan and Brazil to work on the scheme
So, naturally, the reporter knows about it.

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10-08-2009, 02:49 PM
  #42
bleed_oil
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Originally Posted by RaiderDoug View Post
No need to worry, we'll be annexing you sooner or later. Welcome to the family, ya'll.

No seriously, we don't have to worry about any of that, because, as Bruin fan Dennis Leary said, "We got the Bombs!".

No, really seriously this time, while a lower USD might have made it more viable for Canadian franchises back when, it likely won't have any affect on current markets in the U.S. Nashville/Phoenix isn't going to pack up and move to Medicine Hat because the USD went down a few cents here and there.

What it will likely do is make an expansion franchise more likley at one point or another. Remember still though, the market has to be able to support the franchise. Value of the USD low or high, there really aren't that many Canadian cities that have the population and infrastructure to support an NHL franchise, that don't already have one. Toronto II, Winnepeg, maybe Quebec?
Sure I totally agree with you.
I dont think they are going to be putting a team in Kelowna or anything like that and yes also agree the relative impact of these changes can only be determined with time. Does this mean the USD will be par with the CDN, is it more than par? What is the impact on the rest of the Canadian economy? Whats the impact on parts of Canada that dont benefit as much from commodities? This is all yet to be determined.

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Old
10-08-2009, 03:03 PM
  #43
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Secret meetings have already been held by finance ministers and central bank governors in Russia, China, Japan and Brazil to work on the scheme, which will mean that oil will no longer be priced in dollars...
So 2 of our largest trading partners and nations that depend a good chunk on US trade Japan and Brazil and a country that depends on US to buy its cheap goods (China) are working to destroy US economy!

Sure that makes sense!

And the Russian's have to fix there own economy before they can go around messing with anyone else's!

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10-08-2009, 04:14 PM
  #44
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Originally Posted by Blackhawkswincup View Post
So 2 of our largest trading partners and nations that depend a good chunk on US trade Japan and Brazil and a country that depends on US to buy its cheap goods (China) are working to destroy US economy!

Sure that makes sense!

And the Russian's have to fix there own economy before they can go around messing with anyone else's!
Its not about destroying anyones economy its competing with euros they need a unified way and USD is less attractive issues from enron up to the last rounds of shakey debt deals just sped up some countries process to get together .
When it comes to NHL i think Can-USD wont see the imbalances to levels in late 90s again so not any serious affects a little here or there but not enough to be drastic now.

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10-08-2009, 04:23 PM
  #45
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I think the problem is that the parties who hold the most US dollars (China, Oil Producing States) are the most vulnerable to fluctuations (namely losses).

They don't want to hold as many USD's as they do, but if they try to dump them, they're shooting themselves in the foot. I do believe that over the long haul, there will be a movement away from the USD, barring some action that makes the Euro less stable...... long shot really.

That's what will continue to drive the USD down, the expectation that the largest stakeholders will want less of a stake.

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10-08-2009, 04:55 PM
  #46
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For those interested in guesstimating what effect the USD/CDN exchange rate might have on HRR this season, here are some figures to get you rolling:

08-09 season noon rates, 251 days, average $0.8625
09-10 season noon rates to date, 69 days, average $0.9135

You can estimate a final average value for 09-10 by plugging in your estimate for the rest of the 09-10 season.

Rate = (0.9135*69 + $ESTIMATE*182)/251

For example if today's closing rate of $0.9492 stayed consistent the rest of the season that would yield a final 09-10 NHL season HRR exchange rate of $0.9394.

rates from BOC:
http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/rates/exchange-look.html

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10-08-2009, 05:03 PM
  #47
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Originally Posted by mouser View Post
For those interested in guesstimating what effect the USD/CDN exchange rate might have on HRR this season, here are some figures to get you rolling:

08-09 season noon rates, 251 days, average $0.8625
09-10 season noon rates to date, 69 days, average $0.9135

You can estimate a final average value for 09-10 by plugging in your estimate for the rest of the 09-10 season.

Rate = (0.9135*69 + $ESTIMATE*182)/251

For example if today's closing rate of $0.9492 stayed consistent the rest of the season that would yield a final 09-10 NHL season HRR exchange rate of $0.9394.

rates from BOC:
http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/rates/exchange-look.html
I have used the figure of $8.5M for every 1 cent change in the $CDN. So using your projected figure of $0.9394 it looks to me like we would have about $60M US in additional HRR.

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10-08-2009, 08:43 PM
  #48
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Originally Posted by bleed_oil View Post
I think you are unfamiliar with Robert Fisk or The Independent if you would explain it away as "some British Tabloid"
Some correspondent in the Middle East turned expert in economics ?

Sorry, I'd rather trust Dean Baker. He has a Ph.D. in economics and founded a think tank that has been associated with numerous Nobel laureates.

Mod: deleted.


Last edited by Fugu: 10-08-2009 at 11:53 PM. Reason: not needed
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10-08-2009, 10:57 PM
  #49
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Originally Posted by bleed_oil View Post
It will create massive instability, inflation and turmoil.
Deflation.

The other parts I agree with.

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10-08-2009, 11:08 PM
  #50
bleed_oil
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Originally Posted by Matt714 View Post
Some correspondent in the Middle East turned expert in economics ?

Sorry, I'd rather trust Dean Baker. He has a Ph.D. in economics and founded a think tank that has been associated with numerous Nobel laureates.

Mod: deleted.
Mod: deleted.

Fisks article is not about economics, its a news item on possible discussions that may be occurring. Theres no knowledge in economics required to report a news item.

I don't see you addressing the fact that the very article you posted here indicated the US govt would like to see the dollar devalued.


Last edited by Fugu: 10-08-2009 at 11:55 PM. Reason: response to edited post
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