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Decline of the US Dollar

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Old
10-16-2009, 04:26 AM
  #101
Ola
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Originally Posted by Gump Hasek View Post
Most commodities are priced in American dollars.

Think of it this way.

You owned an American car that was valued at 2,000 dollars. If you took it to Mexico and sold it for an equivalent amount, but priced in Pesos, you'd receive many more Pesos than would you American dollars. The car value is the same, but it is now being expressed in, denominated in... Pesos rather than in dollars. The car became "higher priced" because it was denominated in Pesos rather than in dollars.

Yes inflationary risk and supply and demand impact the price of commodities, and so does the currency that commodity is expressed in.

Here are some long term charts of gold and the USDX (dollar index)...
http://www.mrci.com/pdf/gc.pdf
http://www.mrci.com/pdf/dx.pdf

While not an exact counter mirror, the correlation between the dollar's fall and the rally in gold (since around 01) is not a coincidence, IMO. That I chose gold is a moot point, most commodities prices, those denominated in USD, have made similar moves; again much of it because they are expressed in USD terms, IMO.

Your mileage may vary. Feel free to believe what you wish. I do this stuff for a living, with my own $$$$$.
Aha, then I understand. So it wouldn't really be applyable on say the Swedish Krona since no commodities is priced in the SEK (besides the Nobel Price maybe... ).

But again with the USD, since like gold is priced in USD a fall of the USD tricks people into buying more gold because they think its more cheap then it really is -- that I get. So I get why gold, even for a guy in Sweden who only cares about the value of the it in the Krona, goes up if the USD goes down.

But why would that keep the USD from gooing down? Because people starts trading more with commodities valued in teh USD and therefor raise the demand in the USD? That seems logical.

BTW, I am only asking because I am curious about how it works. I definitly don't belive that you are wrong.

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10-16-2009, 04:36 AM
  #102
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Remember when the Japanese economy was predicted to be the biggest in the world by the mid 1990's? I do.
The thing is, who cares about beeing biggest? Who benefits from that? Whats the result of that?

And -- whats the result of a growing economy?

Whats better, to have a growing economy or to have a big economy?

A low USD would without any doubt 24/7/346 be of huge benefit for the exporting industrys in the USA. That would help to grow the US economy.

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10-16-2009, 08:32 AM
  #103
Gump Hasek
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But why would that keep the USD from gooing down? Because people starts trading more with commodities valued in teh USD and therefor raise the demand in the USD? That seems logical.
I don't personally think the number of people trading commodities today has a vital and material long term impact upon the value of the dollar, IMO. The value of the dollar does have a material impact upon the price of commodities priced in (denominated in) USD terms though.

I never stated that would keep the USD from going down either. I did however earlier state that I agreed though with another poster who said that since public opinion seems to be awfully bearish on the USD, and that since public opinion is a good contrary indicator of future market direction, that the USD could indeed perhaps be near a bottom.

For every article posted here as reason why the USD will go down, there are others out there who disagree, published or not. Markets are simply opinion barometers for that exact second in time that a trade is completed. Nothing more. Eventually, at some date in time, the USD will eventually bottom, whenever that is. The US has historically been the most productive economy in the world. As such, their currency has value versus others, meaning it won't go down forever. It is just trying to find a level, for now, wherever that may lie. Markets also go up you know, they go up and down, it is what they do.

All IMO. Your own mileage may vary.


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10-16-2009, 09:27 AM
  #104
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Originally Posted by GHOSTofMAROONSroad View Post
Another WSJ article:



An advantage of the USD's decline is that the US's huge debt to foreigners will be easier to pay off.

Link:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125498941145272887.html

GHOST
A strategy thats worked so well in the past... inflating your currency to pay down debt, LOL. I see great things coming out of that.

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10-16-2009, 09:29 AM
  #105
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Guess soon it'll be time to do some importing.

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10-16-2009, 11:59 AM
  #106
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Originally Posted by Gump Hasek View Post
I don't personally think the number of people trading commodities today has a vital and material long term impact upon the value of the dollar, IMO. The value of the dollar does have a material impact upon the price of commodities priced in (denominated in) USD terms though.
In a relative sense, no?

Wouldn't it be fair to say that commodities will set their own demand curve, somewhat irrelevant of the denominated currency? The sellers may have their own preferences as to which currency they'd like to hold (for a few reasons and their own expectations), but this shouldn't affect the demand levels indefinitely. It does become a factor when a currency is no longer considered hard, and/or is outright rejected. Other than that, people may play with buying more or less (to stockpile) if they have a currency advantage, or expectation about the direction of movement.

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I never stated that would keep the USD from going down either. I did however earlier state that I agreed though with another poster who said that since public opinion seems to be awfully bearish on the USD, and that since public opinion is a good contrary indicator of future market direction, that the USD could indeed perhaps be near a bottom.

For every article posted here as reason why the USD will go down, there are others out there who disagree, published or not. Markets are simply opinion barometers for that exact second in time that a trade is completed. Nothing more. Eventually, at some date in time, the USD will eventually bottom, whenever that is. The US has historically been the most productive economy in the world. As such, their currency has value versus others, meaning it won't go down forever. It is just trying to find a level, for now, wherever that may lie. Markets also go up you know, they go up and down, it is what they do.

All IMO. Your own mileage may vary.
Are you of the opinion that currency levels are set purely by speculation, due to the sheer volume of exchange that happens on a daily or annual basis; and do these types of market pressures make it difficult for central banks to actually fully control their own currency (e.g., the rush to currencies from countries paying a higher interest rate).

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10-16-2009, 12:36 PM
  #107
Gump Hasek
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In a relative sense, no?

Wouldn't it be fair to say that commodities will set their own demand curve, somewhat irrelevant of the denominated currency? The sellers may have their own preferences as to which currency they'd like to hold (for a few reasons and their own expectations), but this shouldn't affect the demand levels indefinitely. It does become a factor when a currency is no longer considered hard, and/or is outright rejected. Other than that, people may play with buying more or less (to stockpile) if they have a currency advantage, or expectation about the direction of movement.
I trade commodities for a living. My take is that the currency the commodity is denominated in is at least as equally important as are demand and supply considerations... is demand for a specific commodity inelastic or elastic, etc. Your theory that people with a currency advantage may play with buying less or more is relative to whether or not their speculation eventually turns out correctly. The market is the final arbiter of who is correct.

I'd bet dollars to donuts though that commodity prices on the whole will fall should the USD materially rebound, due in part to trader speculation that that will be the net result of such a currency move. Overlay a 10 year USDX chart against nearly any commodity denominated in USD and you'll see what I mean.

Quote:
Are you of the opinion that currency levels are set purely by speculation, due to the sheer volume of exchange that happens on a daily or annual basis; and do these types of market pressures make it difficult for central banks to actually fully control their own currency (e.g., the rush to currencies from countries paying a higher interest rate).
I personally believe that central bank intervention into any currency is rarely effective. I know of groups of commercial traders who intentionally fade such action and they are nearly universally correct in doing so, based upon p&l statements I've seen. Central banks can IMO more effectively manage their own currencies via interest rates rather than stepping into the trade, as you mentioned.

I'm actually a technically based trader, meaning I trade based upon charts more-so than on fundamental news. As such, I'm trying not to participate too much in this thread. My focus is to try to ignore fundamentals, actually. I also believe that the influx of managed money into the markets has meant that fundamentals are of less import these days.

But anyway, this is all IMO, and is not meant to be taken as any sort of guide. As a trader I know that markets are made up of many differing opinions, that I am also incorrect many times, and that money management is key to my own trading success or lack-thereof. One can lose money on 9 out of 10 trades and still make money should the one profitable winner vastly outnumber the size of the other nine losses combined. Cheers. Back to the rat races.

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10-16-2009, 01:52 PM
  #108
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If you're ignoring fundamentals then you are missing a big pressure factor on USD, which is excess worldwide supply of USD. There are other factors of course which drive fundamental currency value but basic supply/demand (at the moment many economists are saying USD excess supply is caused by the liquidity the treasury is throwing into system).

Currency is an important factor for commodity TRADING/relative prices, but it doesn't actually effect the commodity value, which as Fugu says is only set by the commodity's own value factors (such as supply/demand, news, speculation, etc.).

you can factor currency/commodity prices into trading for hedging, leveraging and/or speculative purposes, but they are not fundamentally changing each other's values, just relative prices.

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10-16-2009, 01:54 PM
  #109
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A Canadian team could spend 56 million USD on salaries and it would equal $44 million Canadian dollars.

I'd suspect that all of the Canadian teams will be buying tons of American money if the Canadian dollar keeps rising.

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10-16-2009, 02:02 PM
  #110
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A Canadian team could spend 56 million USD on salaries and it would equal $44 million Canadian dollars.

I'd suspect that all of the Canadian teams will be buying tons of American money if the Canadian dollar keeps rising.

This exactly the flipside of the problem they had a decade ago. To get to a $44 MM USD payroll, it took $56 MM of the CAD. Furthermore, hedging instruments weren't widely available/developed in the older days, but as we've discussed in the forum a couple of years ago, that can provide protection year over year, but not indefinitely.

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10-16-2009, 07:26 PM
  #111
Gump Hasek
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Originally Posted by Turboflex View Post
If you're ignoring fundamentals then you are missing a big pressure factor on USD, which is excess worldwide supply of USD. There are other factors of course which drive fundamental currency value but basic supply/demand (at the moment many economists are saying USD excess supply is caused by the liquidity the treasury is throwing into system).

Currency is an important factor for commodity TRADING/relative prices, but it doesn't actually effect the commodity value, which as Fugu says is only set by the commodity's own value factors (such as supply/demand, news, speculation, etc.).

you can factor currency/commodity prices into trading for hedging, leveraging and/or speculative purposes, but they are not fundamentally changing each other's values, just relative prices.
Trend traders don't follow fundamentals. They follow market direction.

I don't disagree with your premise that the rapid print of the USD is why it has fallen, and why it may or may not fall in the future. It means squat to those of us who base price direction as reason to trade a certain side of the market though.

Currency however, the USD in this case, is a vital factor for commodities denominated in USD terms on the whole. Price relativity is what trading is all about FYI, the relationship of prices.

Let us look at grains for example. When the USD falls, US grain becomes cheaper for others to import, domestic US values rise as domestic demand increases while imports become more expensive, inventories fall. The reverse happens when the dollar is high.

That is in a nutshell why commodities fall when the dollar rises, and vise versa. Price relationships.


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10-16-2009, 07:40 PM
  #112
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Further to price relativity/relationship. When carrying nearby positions, I must always be cognizant of the carry cost of my positions relative to other trading months. We use what is known as carrying charge cost, and look to enter and exit trades and spreads at specific points relative to the cost to carry the position during a differing time frame. I run constant calculations of the cost of full carry, and can at specific times use a market neutral position to earn better than bank interest rates by essentially doing nothing with my market positions... though only at the right price and time. Risk management. Those calculations include time value, interest rate risk, and currency risk. That currency risk is tied to the fact that the commodities I trade are denominated in USD terms.

Al of this is strictly IMO though. Feel free to believe what you wish.

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10-17-2009, 09:38 AM
  #113
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Hopefully NHL.shop.com lowers there prices for their Canadian/Foreign customers or else they will lose many of them to ebay, where people can get basically 20% off the listed price because of currency exchange rates.

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10-17-2009, 11:09 AM
  #114
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Again, wake me up once the NHLPA starts demanding that players be paid in Canadian dollars.

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10-17-2009, 11:21 AM
  #115
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Again, wake me up once the NHLPA starts demanding that players be paid in Canadian dollars.
That would be freaking hilarious....

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10-17-2009, 11:22 AM
  #116
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Maybe getting a little off track here but if the CAD dollar reaches something like 1.05 or 1.10 US I think i'm going to transfer some of my funds then wait for the dollar to hit back to .80 Cents.... yeaaah.

Does the American NHL Shop not ship to Canada? I was looking the other day and jerseys are 115... so already about 15 bucks cheaper than what you would see in Stores up here... then factor in when our dollar passes theirs it could be quite the savings.

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10-17-2009, 09:17 PM
  #117
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On the Hot Stove Lounge they mentioned a potential 1mil drop (if that) over the next few caps. Hopefully the end result is nowhere near the 10-20% being rumoured around the league.

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10-18-2009, 08:51 AM
  #118
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The gen public is a notoriously good contrary indicator
Gump- How much of this can be attributed to for example someone named something like Abu Dabu Kadabu from Fariawayistani with a zillion million of USD's decides to start buying like for example silver -- and therefor drives the price of silver up, which in its turn makes a bunch of guys named for example Joe Smith buy silver too -- only to drive the price up even further -- so that Abu Kadabu Dabadu can sell of the silver he have bought with a nice profit -- so that the price again goes down? '

Naturally at all instances Kadabu Abu Dabadu acts through different anonymous company's. Of course.

In the end, all above results in that when the avg Joe thinks its time to buy something, the big sharks usually pulls out.


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10-18-2009, 08:55 AM
  #119
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On the Hot Stove Lounge they mentioned a potential 1mil drop (if that) over the next few caps. Hopefully the end result is nowhere near the 10-20% being rumoured around the league.
Next season that don't seem unlikely, it could stay put or drop some.

But if the Loonies crusade, , against the USD continues its not unreasonable to expect the cap to go up in 10-11.

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10-18-2009, 10:03 AM
  #120
Gump Hasek
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Gump- How much of this can be attributed to for example someone named something like Abu Dabu Kadabu from Fariawayistani with a zillion million of USD's decides to start buying like for example silver -- and therefor drives the price of silver up, which in its turn makes a bunch of guys named for example Joe Smith buy silver too -- only to drive the price up even further -- so that Abu Kadabu Dabadu can sell of the silver he have bought with a nice profit -- so that the price again goes down? '

Naturally at all instances Kadabu Abu Dabadu acts through different anonymous company's. Of course.

In the end, all above results in that when the avg Joe thinks its time to buy something, the big sharks usually pulls out.
That is a very naive attempt at an analogy, IMO. The reason I say that is you are assuming that futures contracts like silver (the price discovery vehicle of the physical commodity) are only used for speculation, which they are not. Commodities pricing vehicles are used by producers (to hedge risk of ownership), by end users (to hedge the risk of not enough ownership), by commercial entities with varying ownership risks, and also by speculators as well. If prices go too high (by whatever means), this encourages producers to sell and discourages usage by end users. Conversely, if prices become too low, it discourages production and encourages consumption.

Your error is in assuming that "Abu Dabu Kadabu from Fariawayistani" is both faster and smarter than the market on the whole. 99.999% of the time he isn't, and if he was, full credit to him. Sometimes the "big sharks" as you refer to them became big sharks for a reason; some folks out there are indeed smarter, more nimble, and more efficient than the average Joe at deploying their capital. Some became big sharks because they are indeed smarter than everyone else in the room.


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10-18-2009, 03:07 PM
  #121
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That is a very naive attempt at an analogy, IMO. The reason I say that is you are assuming that futures contracts like silver (the price discovery vehicle of the physical commodity) are only used for speculation, which they are not. Commodities pricing vehicles are used by producers (to hedge risk of ownership), by end users (to hedge the risk of not enough ownership), by commercial entities with varying ownership risks, and also by speculators as well. If prices go too high (by whatever means), this encourages producers to sell and discourages usage by end users. Conversely, if prices become too low, it discourages production and encourages consumption.

Your error is in assuming that "Abu Dabu Kadabu from Fariawayistani" is both faster and smarter than the market on the whole. 99.999% of the time he isn't, and if he was, full credit to him. Sometimes the "big sharks" as you refer to them became big sharks for a reason; some folks out there are indeed smarter, more nimble, and more efficient than the average Joe at deploying their capital. Some became big sharks because they are indeed smarter than everyone else in the room.
I was mostly joking -- but of course it happens.

If you have enough resources to effect the price yourself anyway -- no matter the avg Joe -- you can take advantage of it. Thats why its illigal and systems in place to catch them.

But of course it happends.

Its like inside trading -- its extremely hard to catch. And often it comes down to proving what have been said in private between two persons who don't want to be caught.

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10-18-2009, 04:15 PM
  #122
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I was mostly joking -- but of course it happens.

If you have enough resources to effect the price yourself anyway -- no matter the avg Joe -- you can take advantage of it. Thats why its illigal and systems in place to catch them.

But of course it happends.

Its like inside trading -- its extremely hard to catch. And often it comes down to proving what have been said in private between two persons who don't want to be caught.
Very rarely does one individual or group have the financial wherewithal to affect the market in the manner in which you imply. Of course it happens but I believe market oversight to be much more effective than do you, apparently. I don't personally believe there to be any larger a percentage of "bad" people in the financial industry than are there "bad" lawyers, doctors, accountants, dentists, etc.

The last time I can recall a scandal of the type you describe would be the Hunt brothers in the 1970s.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Bunker_Hunt

I personally believe that the reason you don't hear of more of these types of scandals is because the futures market oversight is much greater now than the general public is aware. Sure there is the occasional brouhaha like the Madoff hedge fund thing, and others, but Madoff didn't involve trading but rather involved someone claiming to be trading... that wasn't. The clients in that one don't entirely escape blame though; to invest in a hedge fund one must qualify as an experienced investor and sign a disclaimer stating that they understand an increased risk with hedge funds because the hedge funds trade sans the same oversight as would apply to a normal fund. Unfortunately in this case they got the risk they signed on for. Their fault lies in trust of the con man... sans verification that their money would be/ was invested as they believed it would be.

All IMO. I'm done with this thread. Back to work! Cheers.


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10-19-2009, 03:37 AM
  #123
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Gump- I just want to thank you for the info you provided -- thats what so great with a place like this. There is always someone in whatever area who really knows there stuff!

When it comes to the above -- I don't have the slightest how it really is in commodity-trading.

But overall in the business world -- the system in itself invites people to cross the line. I am not involved, but more like informed, in case currently going on in Sweden about a international inside trading case. The ingredienses are very simple 1. a lot of easy money to be made and 2. its extremely hard to catch them. That invites people to cross the line. For a dentist or a cop there 1 isn't a lot of easy money to be made and 2 if there were it wouldn't be hard to catch them. All the third eye can watch for is people who make affairs that are "too good" time after time. But what if its diffrent people every time making those affairs? And then -- when you finally have a case where you can point out who exactly have made those affairs -- you have to connect that person to someone giving him the info. If the two guys only used anonymous cellphones it would be easy -- the cops can trace those on their position and then bug them. But what if the info is passed on in some untraceble way? Like contact adds in a newspaper with code? I know it sounds funny almost. Then by extreme policework you finally can sort out the two guys involved -- their lawyer says "its not inside info he was passing on, only advice". Everything have to be proven beyond any reasonable doubt.

I know, its sounds like I belive everyone are crocks and that everything is a conspiracy -- I don't. I don't think theres a "larger %" either. But I do not think its unusual either. You mentioned Madoff -- would he have been caught if the worst crash in 80 years didn't occur? You have that guy in Singapore (? or was it taiwan) who crashed that english bank -- he wouldn't have been caught if there was a crash. There is a crash like that every 20 years -- how many gets away with it inbetween?

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10-21-2009, 09:12 AM
  #124
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Niall Ferfuson says what everyone is thinking.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aZYblKZy9jTs
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1676...-s-empire-over

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10-26-2009, 01:54 PM
  #125
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With the return of the CDN$ to lower levels, can we for once dispense with the idea that certain posters have of trumpeting the death of the US$ every time there is a fluctuation in currency prices and lauding their supposed prescience in all matters currency-related?

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