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Ryan Kesler's Trade Value

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Old
03-15-2010, 10:05 PM
  #1
skipole
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Ryan Kesler's Trade Value

For fear of having everyone jump on me and insult my intelligence, let me clarify before I begin: I am not advocating that Kesler DEFINITELY be traded. He is a crucial component of this team, and it is extremely unlikely we will ever see him traded. However, I'd like to throw out the idea, and spark some discussion.

Kesler is an RFA at the end of this season, meaning he could be traded after this season's playoffs (but before July 1) for considerable return.

It's clear that his trade value would be extremely high: He will be a Selke candidate again, and it looks as though he's a lock for 70+ points this season. His Olympic performance further ups his value. A 70-point, two-way center is pretty much as valuable as it gets these days, and all 29 GM's would want him at practically any salary.

Now, all of these things are reasons why we *SHOULDN'T* trade Kesler, and I understand that. BUT... when you consider the organizational depth of the Canucks, which includes a potential top-6 center in Cody Hodgson... plus a handful of other decent forward prospects (Raymond, Grabner, Schroeder, Hansen, Shirokov) doesn't it make sense to at least CONSIDER moving Kesler?

If I'm Mike Gillis, I would be asking for a young two-way defenseman in return. This is the biggest hole in this organization, and may be a crucial component for playoff success. Acquiring a franchise defenseman means that Mitchell and Salo will not need to be re-signed. With Ehrhoff, Edler, and Bieksa all under age 30, plus SOB and Alberts providing depth, the defense would be in excellent shape for the next 5-7 years. There are a few names that would fit the bill...

------------

1) Drew Doughty, LAK: Will not be moved, period. Out of the question.


2) Tyler Myers, BUF: Extremely unlikely to be moved. Out of the question.


3) Erik Johnson, STL: Potentially a future franchise defensemen and Norris candidate with great size and offensive instincts. It seems very unlikely he'll be moved, but the Blues do have Pietrangelo and a few other solid defensive prospects approaching NHL readiness. Plus he has been mildly disappointing this year.

Proposal: Kesler & a 2010 3rd round pick in exchange for Erik Johnson. (Canucks sign Demitra to a 1-year, 3.0 mil contract in the offseason and do not re-sign Willie Mitchell. Canucks trade SOB for a pick.)

Sedin-Sedin-Burrows
Raymond-Demitra-Samuelsson
Hansen-Hodgson-Grabner
Glass-UFA-Rypien

E. Johnson-Salo
Ehrhoff-Edler
Bieksa-Alberts


4) Shea Weber, NAS: Everyone knows what he can do. With his contract ending at the end of next season, plus Suter and Hamhuis already on the roster... can Nashville afford to keep him? He'll almost certainly command 7+ million. If Kesler signed for 5 million, Nashville would only be adding $500k in salary for this upcoming season. Canucks might need to take one of Nashville's less desirable contracts in return.

Proposal: Kesler, O'Brien, & a 2010 1st round pick in exchange for Legwand and Weber. (Canucks do not resign Mitchell, and they move Bieksa in the offseason to free further cap space).

Sedin-Sedin-Burrows
Raymond-Legwand-Samuelsson
Hansen-Hodgson-Grabner
Glass-UFA-Rypien

Weber-Ehrhoff
Salo-Edler
UFA-Alberts


Zach Bogosian, ATL: Another potential stud defenseman, and although he's much younger than Johnson and Weber, he could still be a useful piece moving forward. Atlanta doesn't really need a center, but they're thin on offense now that Kovalchuk is out of the picture. Hainsey, Enstrom, and Oduya are all signed for the next few years. Given their financial troubles, I would imagine Atlanta would want to send salary.

Proposal: Kesler & O'Brien in exchange for Bogosian, White, and a 2010 3rd round pick. (Canucks re-sign Demitra for 3.0 million).

Sedin-Sedin-Burrows
Raymond-White-Demitra
Hansen-Hodgson-Samuelsson
Glass-UFA-Rypien

Bogosian-Salo
Ehrhoff-Edler
Bieksa-Alberts


-----------

Before you flame me into a pile of ash, please remember I'm just throwing these ideas out there for discussion. I'm not a Kesler-hater nor do I necessarily want to see him traded. I am simply suggesting it is a way to address our organizational issues.

Naturally, I prefer the Shea Weber option, because it brings this team immediate upgrades without sacrificing anything. I also find it the least realistic option, because I don't see Nashville being particularly fond of the idea.

Nonetheless, I think the idea of moving Kesler for a #1 defenseman is an idea worth discussing given the emergence of Burrows, Raymond and Samuelsson as bonafide two-way top-6 players in the future.

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Old
03-15-2010, 10:12 PM
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VanEric
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I disagree. I'd rather have depth down the middle and wait for a #1 defenseman to hit the open market.

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03-15-2010, 10:14 PM
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Trading Kesler for a #1 d-man makes us a worse team. The gap between say Ehrhoff or Mitchell and a true number 1 is not even close to the gap between Ryan Kesler and our next best center.

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03-15-2010, 10:15 PM
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The only way this should be considered is if Kesler disappears during the playoffs again — like he did last year.

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Old
03-15-2010, 10:18 PM
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No

that is all

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Old
03-15-2010, 10:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiranis View Post
The only way this should be considered is if Kesler disappears during the playoffs again like he did last year.
I wouldn't even do it then. He's still younger than most people think because he's been around so long. Last year was his first taste of playoff hockey so he has to learn how to play in those situations.

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Old
03-15-2010, 10:23 PM
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I would rather trade Hodgson.

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Old
03-15-2010, 10:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Britton View Post
Trading Kesler for a #1 d-man makes us a worse team. The gap between say Ehrhoff or Mitchell and a true number 1 is not even close to the gap between Ryan Kesler and our next best center.
I find this argument a bit shoddy. The gap may not be as big, but the impact on an organization as a whole is bigger.

Where is Pittsburgh without Gonchar? SJ without Boyle? Chicago without Keith/Campbell? Washington without Green? LA without Doughty?

Moving forward, the Canucks will bank on Hodgson to fill a #2 center role. There is plenty of offensive support if Samuelsson, Raymond, and Burrows stick around... plus a few potential nuggets of offense from Schroeder, Grabner, Hansen, Shirokov, etc.

There is no such lineup of defensive depth at all. Beyond Ehrhoff and Edler, this organization is completely devoid of top-4 defensive talent. Salo is gone after the end of next season and Willie's health is in question, plus he doesn't bring a puck-moving presence.

Quote:
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I would rather trade Hodgson.
I agree completely, but I don't see how he could possibly bring a top-tier defensive prospect in return.

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03-15-2010, 10:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dado View Post
I would rather trade Hodgson.
I would rather jump off a bridge.

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03-15-2010, 10:30 PM
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skipole
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Originally Posted by Amused To Death View Post
I would rather jump off a bridge.
Please do. The Johnson Street bridge should provide a good location.

In all seriousness, if Hodgson can be traded for a future franchise defenseman, Gillis jumps on the deal without a second thought.

The Canucks drafted Hodgson because he was the best player available. If he can be traded for an equally talented player who addresses an organizational need (high-end defensive talent) they will do so in a heartbeat.

Hodgson + 2010 1st rounder for Bogosian...? Done, without a second thought.

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03-15-2010, 10:34 PM
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Originally Posted by VanEric View Post
I disagree. I'd rather have depth down the middle and wait for a #1 defenseman to hit the open market.
I don't see this as a feasible option. Who is going to hit the open market? How do you afford his salary, since elite defensemen will command $7+ mil?

This team doesn't need Hamhuis or Martin, it needs a 26-minute two-way defenseman that will be a key player for the next decade. You have to give up something to get an asset that valuable, and Kesler is the best we have to offer.

I suppose if you fundamentally disagree with this team's need for elite defensive talent, then this would seem like a very bad move....

I've watched this team's current defense struggle for 4-5 years. There are too many question marks in terms of health and not enough solid defensive play. Ehrhoff, Edler and Bieksa will be excellent #2, 3, and 4 guys moving forward. A reliable puck-mover to play big minutes is necessary to fill the #1 spot.

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Old
03-15-2010, 10:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skipole View Post

Where is Pittsburgh without Gonchar? .
Where are they without Malkin? That's what Kesler is to us. Secondary scoring.

I would sign him for 6 million. Two firsts a second and a third aren't worth anything when you have a team competing for the cup unless Toronto or the Islanders were willing to do it... any other team just seems capable of making that draft pick high enough to be worthless. Even Edmonton seems like they could battle for 8th next year... or at the least it's not guaranteed they are a top 3 pick that will definitely join the roster after the draft.

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03-15-2010, 10:38 PM
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According to a lot of Leafs fans you might be able to get Kaberle for Kesler, Hodgson and a first.

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03-15-2010, 10:39 PM
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If Kesler is looking for more than 5.5 I have to say that I walk and trade him for SKILL KESSEL.

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03-15-2010, 10:41 PM
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Originally Posted by hecktor View Post
Where are they without Malkin? That's what Kesler is to us. Secondary scoring.
I agree wholeheartedly, secondary scoring is crucial. But instead of Malkin, we have Raymond and Samuelsson and Burrows and, in the longer term, hopefully Hodgson.

As I've said before, you're giving up a valuable asset and getting one in return.

Quote:
Originally Posted by hecktor View Post
I would sign him for 6 million. Two firsts a second and a third aren't worth anything when you have a team competing for the cup unless Toronto or the Islanders were willing to do it... any other team just seems capable of making that draft pick high enough to be worthless. Even Edmonton seems like they could battle for 8th next year... or at the least it's not guaranteed they are a top 3 pick that will definitely join the roster after the draft.
Toronto doesn't even have their first round pick for next season, it's in Boston's hands thanks to Burke's outrageous Kessel trade.

I agree that Kesler should not be traded for picks, regardless of the return. But Shea Weber and Erik Johnson are not picks, they are elite players that will help this team as soon as they hit the ice.

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03-15-2010, 10:45 PM
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I was talking with a buddy about a hypothetical deal based around Weber for Kesler. If it could be swung with only minor assets being added by Gillis I'd definitely do it. You would never replace his jam up front but Weber would be a perfect fit for this team. Moving forward the organization would be more balanced. Sure Kesler would probably score on us every time we played him but I think Weber would be worth it.

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Old
03-15-2010, 10:45 PM
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Well, nobody wants to trade Kesler and the OP'er knows that too. With that said, I agree we might see a situation where Kesler can't be signed or actually signs an offer sheet. If he signs an offer sheet, I say match the offer then trade the guy. One offer sheet is forgivable, a second offer sheet and he needs to go - imo. He is worth more in a trade than the picks we'd get as compensation.

I think if we do trade him, it should be for another centerman or a center/defenseman package. Avoid picks and avoid the idea of a star d-man. We need some decent stay at home d-men and they are easier to come by than competant centermen.

P.S - With all that said, more than anything else, I really want to see Kesler sign long term in Vancouver.

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03-15-2010, 10:48 PM
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Originally Posted by HenrikSedinFan View Post
According to a lot of Leafs fans you might be able to get Kaberle for Kesler, Hodgson and a first.
That's mighty generous of them.....Ummm, on second thought, I'll pass.

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03-15-2010, 10:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skipole View Post
I agree wholeheartedly, secondary scoring is crucial. But instead of Malkin, we have Raymond and Samuelsson and Burrows and, in the longer term, hopefully Hodgson.

As I've said before, you're giving up a valuable asset and getting one in return.



Toronto doesn't even have their first round pick for next season, it's in Boston's hands thanks to Burke's outrageous Kessel trade.

I agree that Kesler should not be traded for picks, regardless of the return. But Shea Weber and Erik Johnson are not picks, they are elite players that will help this team as soon as they hit the ice.
I just meant that whatever it costs to sign him I would, I wouldn't let that be a reason to trade him. And I doubt he requests a trade for anything other than money so I want him on the Canucks for at least until his contract would cause a major problem capwise, and by then it seems like he will be worth every penny so will be highly tradeable.

Hoping for a trade for a guy like Johnson is out of the question. No one trades a number one defenseman... except for a team that has two. AKA Nashville. However, I doubt they trade Weber unless he requests a trade which I wouldn't bank on.

I will let you have fun with the thread though since I love to make 'ideal' lineups whenever I am bored at school or work.

Also, skimmed through the post too quickly. I feel like the players you listed are nothing without an effective center. They won't produce with anyone like Welly or a rookie Hodgson. And we would need to make this deal before we got to see what Hoddy can do in the NHL. Get used to hearing HOD once the guy makes the NHL, wean yourselves off of Hojson!

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Old
03-15-2010, 11:07 PM
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I'm one of Kesler's biggest fans.He's the heart and soul of the Canucks and everything,but if Kesler want more then 5.5 million I'd try to trade him for a legit number 1 defenceman,and no I don't mean Tomas Kaberle or Brent Burns,I mean a under 27 good two-way defenceman for example Shea Weber or Erik Johnson like the OP mentioned.

Johnson and Weber are something the Canucks have lacked for years,there both mobile big strong two-way defenceman.The Canucks do downgrade at the Center position quit a bit but we have 2 potential top 6 center's in the system in Hodgson and Schroeder.I feel if Hodgson lives up to potential he'll be a slower version of Ryan Kesler.

Also,if the Canucks are able to land Johnson or Weber for Kesler,we could use one of are defenceman say Kevin Bieksa as trade bait to acquire a more proven top 6 player or trade him for prospects and picks and use the cap space to sign a top 6 Center Via FA.

Possible lineup

Sedin-Sedin-Samuelsson
Raymond-Lombardi-Burrows
Bernier-Hodgson-Grabner
Hansen-Rypien-Glass

Weber/EJ-Edler
Ehrhoff-SOB
Alberts-Salo

Luongo

I'm to lazy to do the cap hits but it looks like that team would be under the cap.The Canucks obviously downgrade at Center but easily upgrade at the Defensive position.


But like I said before I'd hate to give up Kesler so if the Canucks could possible find a way to get Weber from the Preds without giving up Kesler,Luongo or the Sedin's I would be ecstatic.

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Old
03-15-2010, 11:09 PM
  #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hal 9000 View Post
Well, nobody wants to trade Kesler and the OP'er knows that too. With that said, I agree we might see a situation where Kesler can't be signed or actually signs an offer sheet. If he signs an offer sheet, I say match the offer then trade the guy.
Wouldn't be able to for a year -- this came up a lot in discussion the last time he signed one.

I wouldn't take an offer sheet too personally, though. It's not a player slighting a team any more than a team slights a player when trading him. Both are just part of the biz, and it's hard to fault a player for taking a guaranteed sum (which, usually, he'll expect his team to match) rather than dragging through negotiations.

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03-15-2010, 11:12 PM
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Originally Posted by skipole View Post
I don't see this as a feasible option. Who is going to hit the open market? How do you afford his salary, since elite defensemen will command $7+ mil?

This team doesn't need Hamhuis or Martin, it needs a 26-minute two-way defenseman that will be a key player for the next decade. You have to give up something to get an asset that valuable, and Kesler is the best we have to offer.

I suppose if you fundamentally disagree with this team's need for elite defensive talent, then this would seem like a very bad move....

I've watched this team's current defense struggle for 4-5 years. There are too many question marks in terms of health and not enough solid defensive play. Ehrhoff, Edler and Bieksa will be excellent #2, 3, and 4 guys moving forward. A reliable puck-mover to play big minutes is necessary to fill the #1 spot.
How'd getting that 26 minute two way #1 dman work for Calgary? Do you actually think Raymond and Samuelsson produce anywhere near the pace they are on this year without Kesler? It's not a coincidence that everyone who plays with him is having a career year, just like it wasn't a coincidence that Sundin finally started to look somewhat like himself last year when put with him. He is the straw that stirs the drink when it comes to our secondary scoring, without him this team is back where it was two years ago, a great top line with no help because the second line has no anchor.

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Old
03-15-2010, 11:18 PM
  #23
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Although he's not there yet, we can't trade him tomorrow so by the time we are able to trade him again he may just be there. Where you say? Well it would be that same place where the Linden trade was made: Mistakeland. That's right, I compared the two.

You just don't do that.

With that being said, Atlanta would absolutely love him. They need a captain down there.

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Old
03-15-2010, 11:23 PM
  #24
skipole
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Originally Posted by Britton View Post
How'd getting that 26 minute two way #1 dman work for Calgary? Do you actually think Raymond and Samuelsson produce anywhere near the pace they are on this year without Kesler? It's not a coincidence that everyone who plays with him is having a career year, just like it wasn't a coincidence that Sundin finally started to look somewhat like himself last year when put with him. He is the straw that stirs the drink when it comes to our secondary scoring, without him this team is back where it was two years ago, a great top line with no help because the second line has no anchor.
Fair point, and I don't necessarily disagree. Kesler is certainly a crucial element on this team. That said, I think we'd have to consider any deals that bring back a bonafide #1 defenseman. Sure, you sacrifice offense by trading Kesler, but the problem for this team is not offense. It's defense.

Example: If you can subtract 5 from your offense and add 6 to your defense, then you're +1 and the team is improved after the trade.

The Legwand/Weber for Kesler/SOB/1st deal, at least in my opinion, would be something Gillis should jump on. This team is in desperate need of a legitimate #1 defenseman, and you get that from Weber. Although Kesler is a huge loss, you get at least a serviceable top-9 player in the form of David Legwand. He can center the second line while Hodgson develops.

Additionally, people are forgetting that moving Kesler and adding EJ or Bogosian actually saves us a ton of salary space in the short-term. Since Mitchell wouldn't need to be re-signed, we'd have 4 million to blow on a top-6 player. This could mean holding on to Demitra, or bringing in a 1-year veteran that still has some skill (S. Koivu is the first name that popped into my head).

In other words, you have enough cash left over to patch up the holes on offense while waiting for prospects to develop. No-one you can sign for $4-million will come close to replacing Kesler, but they will provide some offense to make up for his loss - plus we'll have a new stud on the blue line.

(As for your Bouwmeester comment, I don't really think it's a valid comparison at all. Calgary spent more than half their salary space on defense without addressing the gaping holes up front. We are in a completely different situation as the league's 2nd-highest scoring team. Oh, and for what it's worth, I'd give up Bieksa and Demitra for Bouwmeester without even thinking twice.)

Fantasy lineup for the hell of it:

Sedin-Sedin-Burrows
Raymond-Legwand-Samuelsson
Hansen-Hodgson-Grabner
Glass-Malhotra-Rypien

EJ-Ehrhoff
Salo-Edler
Bieksa-Alberts

Fits under the cap, I believe, assuming a 3.25-mil deal for Raymond and assuming SOB is dealt for a pick.


Last edited by skipole: 03-15-2010 at 11:29 PM.
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03-15-2010, 11:25 PM
  #25
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No. We finally draft a number one and a number two center... develop them into 90 + and 70+ point players... we are NOT trading them NOW.

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