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Old
03-17-2010, 07:50 PM
  #51
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Originally Posted by tgeezyband View Post
Just watched an episode of NHL on the fly and man he's been tearing it up, and this year total he has 30 goals and 23 assists, did u expect this of Sammy?
No and there's no way he'd hit that total in Detroit - particularly with all the injuries. But I've maintained that the Wings were willing to let Sammy sign elsewhere because signing Hudler was a priority. If Hudler made it clear he was going to sign in the KHL I am pretty confident the Wings would have made a better effort to sign Sammy and keep him in Detroit.

The guy is making $2.5 million. The Wings went to arbitration and would have paid Hudler just under $3 million per season. If the Wings offered that money to Sammy he's still in Detroit.

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Old
03-18-2010, 07:48 AM
  #52
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Here's a question for those who think Sammy is now overpaid: Is his cap hit (2.5) any worse than Cleary's (2.8)? Just curious.
I think they are both 250-500k too high, so IMO the value-cap ratios of both guys are pretty much identical.

You know what, though? Cleary's really not PK'ing this year. His, Fil, Z and D's PK are all down around 50% and that IT has been replaced by Helm, Eaves and Miller.

So pretty much all Cleary is doing is ES and PP work. Honestly, I think I'd rather have seen Sammy in that role than Cleary... but it's hard to have envisioned the additions of PK'ers like Eaves and Miller back when Detroit was making their pre-season roster decisions.

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03-18-2010, 08:11 AM
  #53
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Originally Posted by HockeyinHD View Post
I think they are both 250-500k too high, so IMO the value-cap ratios of both guys are pretty much identical.

You know what, though? Cleary's really not PK'ing this year. His, Fil, Z and D's PK are all down around 50% and that IT has been replaced by Helm, Eaves and Miller.

So pretty much all Cleary is doing is ES and PP work. Honestly, I think I'd rather have seen Sammy in that role than Cleary... but it's hard to have envisioned the additions of PK'ers like Eaves and Miller back when Detroit was making their pre-season roster decisions.
Yep, I agree. I really defended Cleary's contract tooth and nail, but while his playoff performances have been very good, Samuelsson was just as good of a playoff performer.

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Old
03-18-2010, 01:44 PM
  #54
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Originally Posted by HockeyinHD View Post
I think they are both 250-500k too high, so IMO the value-cap ratios of both guys are pretty much identical.

You know what, though? Cleary's really not PK'ing this year. His, Fil, Z and D's PK are all down around 50% and that IT has been replaced by Helm, Eaves and Miller.

So pretty much all Cleary is doing is ES and PP work. Honestly, I think I'd rather have seen Sammy in that role than Cleary... but it's hard to have envisioned the additions of PK'ers like Eaves and Miller back when Detroit was making their pre-season roster decisions.
I agree with that, that's a fair take.

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03-18-2010, 02:43 PM
  #55
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I give Cleary the slighter edge because he was both a PP and PK guy when these contracts were being considered. I also think, that for a guy his size, he showed a lot more leadership/grit/heart in the playoffs than Sammy. One of my gripes with Sammy is that he didn't use his size to an advantage, at least in making his presence known. He was a yapper though who could get under guy's skins, which may have been a slightly under-appreciated talent. That said, you were never going to see him drop the gloves against Pronger.

Edit: I should add the Cleary's offensive game has devolved. No idea if it has anything to do with those back-to-back injuries (broken jaw, torn retina), but it seems he never found that groove again after the eye injury. He can still be a ~20G guy, but he was trending 25-30G before that.

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Old
03-18-2010, 02:55 PM
  #56
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Originally Posted by Fugu View Post
Edit: I should add the Cleary's offensive game has devolved. No idea if it has anything to do with those back-to-back injuries (broken jaw, torn retina), but it seems he never found that groove again after the eye injury. He can still be a ~20G guy, but he was trending 25-30G before that.
Wait, what? How do you get that?

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03-18-2010, 03:21 PM
  #57
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Wait, what? How do you get that?
The same way she gets that Homer is currently a 30-goal guy?

I kid, Fugu, I kid But seriously, how are you getting this?

I guess Cleary was on a 26-goal pace in 07-08, but I think mentioning 25-30 goals is misleading. Does anyone really expect Cleary to get 25-30 goals in any given season? I think he's a 20-goal guy at best and anything beyond that is an over-achievement, and gravy.

By the way, since Cleary started producing in 06-07, he has 67 goals in 265 regular season games, which is a 20.7-goal pace over 82 games. He has 15 in 63 in the playoffs, which is a 19.5-goal pace.

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03-18-2010, 03:25 PM
  #58
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Once again my Nostradamus-like qualities shine through. I said we'd miss Sammy and that he was really underrated, when most other people said he was a bum we could easily replace with someone cheaper.

The streak continues

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Old
03-18-2010, 03:54 PM
  #59
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Once again my Nostradamus-like qualities shine through. I said we'd miss Sammy and that he was really underrated, when most other people said he was a bum we could easily replace with someone cheaper.

The streak continues
Oh stuff it, Nordic.

No one predicted the rash of injuries to top six guys. And no one predicted that Hudler would need to be replaced. Come back when Hudler is back and the team doesn't have a record number of injuries.

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03-18-2010, 05:31 PM
  #60
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Originally Posted by HockeyinHD View Post
Wait, what? How do you get that?
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Originally Posted by jaster View Post
The same way she gets that Homer is currently a 30-goal guy?

I kid, Fugu, I kid But seriously, how are you getting this?

I guess Cleary was on a 26-goal pace in 07-08, but I think mentioning 25-30 goals is misleading. Does anyone really expect Cleary to get 25-30 goals in any given season? I think he's a 20-goal guy at best and anything beyond that is an over-achievement, and gravy.

By the way, since Cleary started producing in 06-07, he has 67 goals in 265 regular season games, which is a 20.7-goal pace over 82 games. He has 15 in 63 in the playoffs, which is a 19.5-goal pace.
Well, you do have to break it down by situations given them, and the trends for each year + games played.

I have to run, so hopefully I can get this one done quickly...

Cleary's past four year's annual rate of scoring goals, with goal totals if extrapolated to 82 games/yr:
0.28 (23G)
0.317 (26)
0.18 (16)
0.228 (19)

PP IT for those years, in order: 2:08/gm, 2:39, 1:45, 2:32. Just a quick benchmark, for the peak year above, Franzen was 0.375 with about the same PP IT/gm (which then went up each yr thereafter).

Homer:
0.36 (29G)
0.38 (31)
0.34 (28)
0.26 (21)

Homer plays about 3 1/2 min/gm on the PP this yr and last season; it was over 4min/gm in both 07 & 08. I'm fairly certain the timing of the injuries and duration of each skews things a bit too since a guy has to get back into the swing of things, etc.

I said Cleary was trending upward, was getting decent PP time, and then after both injuries, that was reduced. This year he was starting to get more top six minutes and some more PP time, but he seems to have struggled more than two years ago. I personally think he can get 25+ G if he gets decent IT at ES (top six) and 2nd line PP minutes.

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Old
03-18-2010, 07:35 PM
  #61
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Oh stuff it, Nordic.
Yeah, Fugu's the only one that gets to bring up stuff she was accidentally right about.

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03-18-2010, 07:58 PM
  #62
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Well, you do have to break it down by situations given them, and the trends for each year + games played.
The problem is, it appears you are ignoring IT/g which explains nearly all of his increase in scoring from the 2007 to the 2008 seasons.

Also, extrapolating to 82 games on a guy who in his first 4 years in Detroit has averaged barely 71 and who in his entire career has never played 82 seems a bit problematic.

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I said Cleary was trending upward, was getting decent PP time, and then after both injuries, that was reduced. This year he was starting to get more top six minutes and some more PP time, but he seems to have struggled more than two years ago. I personally think he can get 25+ G if he gets decent IT at ES (top six) and 2nd line PP minutes.
Well, he's #5 in ES IT/g and he's #6 in PP IT/g and it looks to be next to impossible for him to hit 20 this year.

I think it's germain to note that for all the catcalls about Sammy offensive production as a Wing, in 4 full seasons in Detroit as top 6-ish forwards:

Sammy: 67 goals and 92 assists. (278 games)
Cleary: 67 goals and 84 assists. (245 games and counting)

And Sammy spent most of his PP time on the point rather than down low like Cleary has been. And Sammy spent most of his time outside the top 6 rather than on a line with D or Z. And Sammy had rather less IT/g than Cleary did.

Think of it this way. Detroit was spending a million bucks a year on Sammy early on, so if you figure even a crazy 2.5 mil number for him for two or three years he'd still come in way, way, WAY under Cleary's yearly contract will end up being.

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Old
03-18-2010, 08:07 PM
  #63
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Yeah, Fugu's the only one that gets to bring up stuff she was accidentally right about.

Well, two things.

1. He's wrong.

2. What did I bring up? CB started the Babcock thread.

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Old
03-18-2010, 08:38 PM
  #64
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The problem is, it appears you are ignoring IT/g which explains nearly all of his increase in scoring from the 2007 to the 2008 seasons.

Also, extrapolating to 82 games on a guy who in his first 4 years in Detroit has averaged barely 71 and who in his entire career has never played 82 seems a bit problematic.

Well, he's #5 in ES IT/g and he's #6 in PP IT/g and it looks to be next to impossible for him to hit 20 this year.

I think it's germain to note that for all the catcalls about Sammy offensive production as a Wing, in 4 full seasons in Detroit as top 6-ish forwards:

Sammy: 67 goals and 92 assists. (278 games)
Cleary: 67 goals and 84 assists. (245 games and counting)

And Sammy spent most of his PP time on the point rather than down low like Cleary has been. And Sammy spent most of his time outside the top 6 rather than on a line with D or Z. And Sammy had rather less IT/g than Cleary did.

Think of it this way. Detroit was spending a million bucks a year on Sammy early on, so if you figure even a crazy 2.5 mil number for him for two or three years he'd still come in way, way, WAY under Cleary's yearly contract will end up being.
Look at it this way-- because it's far more accurate than your view. Cleary earned $450K the first year w/the Wings; $662K the next two years; and then signed a 5 yr deal for $2.8m when he was 29 yo?

Sammy was at $537K the first year, then $1.2m for the next three, signed when he was 30.

Cleary will be 34 when his contract ends.

So, no, you didn't get that savings with Sammy you're claiming for the time period cited.

That said-- would you trade them straight up right now? Sammy with his 3 more years at $2.5m, from the ages of 33-35 - OR - Cleary for 4 more yrs at $2.8m, completed when he's 34 yrs?

I personally think they're relatively close, each have some things the other does not, Cleary is two years younger and a far better skater and shutdown forward. Sammy has the better point shot, and is more of a shooter.

I think Holland chose correctly, and furthermore, the cap and timing had more to do with it than anything else.

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Old
03-19-2010, 01:45 AM
  #65
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Oh stuff it, Nordic.

No one predicted the rash of injuries to top six guys. And no one predicted that Hudler would need to be replaced. Come back when Hudler is back and the team doesn't have a record number of injuries.

I actually predicted that we wouldn't miss Hudler, always thought he was soft, slow, weak and generally overrated. The only thing that makes me semi-wrong regarding that part, are the huge ammount of injuries this season.

We would've missed Samuelsson even if we were injury free, he's better than any forward not named Datsyuk, Zetterberg and Franzen.

Kneel before me Fugu, I am the Oracle of the 21:st century!!

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03-19-2010, 06:28 AM
  #66
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What exactly is ridiculous? You can't just make a broad statement like that without any effort into pointing out what exactly you're disagreeing with--- what's your objection?
Your hatred? You've been the leader of the dislike-samuelsson-pack so you obviously dont see it. He had one of the best bang for buck cap hits in all of NHL in his years on the Wings and he still got flacked for it. He did that wrong and this wrong etc etc..

He's won almost everything there is to win and is a proven winner, clutch and good in both ends. After his contract ended Holland wasnt willing to give what he deserved so he looked for another place and got a deserving contract. Now he proves he is a good player outside Detroit and yet he's not a good player in your eyes.. he's overpaid some of you say, how many 30+ goalscorers are there in this league getting paid 2.5M$ a season? Seriously just because Red Wings have been spoiled with great contracts in the cap era doesnt make him overpaid just because Wings werent willing to pay the man.

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Old
03-19-2010, 08:07 AM
  #67
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Originally Posted by Fugu View Post
Look at it this way-- because it's far more accurate than your view. Cleary earned $450K the first year w/the Wings; $662K the next two years; and then signed a 5 yr deal for $2.8m when he was 29 yo?

Sammy was at $537K the first year, then $1.2m for the next three, signed when he was 30.

Cleary will be 34 when his contract ends.

So, no, you didn't get that savings with Sammy you're claiming for the time period cited.
Sure you do, just do the math. Keep in mind I'm not including Cleary's first year because even though he was only making 450, he was also actually a 4th liner that whole year since he was only playing 10:30 a night. I'm including the times and the salaries when both guys were top 9 forwards.

Sammy: 537, 1.2, 1.2, 1.2, 2.5, 2.5, 2.5. = 11.637 mil over 7 years. 1.667 mil a year.

Cleary: 662, 662, 2.8, 2.8, 2.8, 2.8, 2.8 = 15.324 mil over 7 years. 2.189 mil a year.

Even giving Sammy the full 2.5 over the full 3 years he still comes in at a 31% discount over Cleary.

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That said-- would you trade them straight up right now? Sammy with his 3 more years at $2.5m, from the ages of 33-35 - OR - Cleary for 4 more yrs at $2.8m, completed when he's 34 yrs?
I think it's a coin-flip. I think both guys have peaked as players and aren't going to get any better.

Truthfully, I'd rather have neither Cleary nor Sammy and bundle that 2.5-2.8 mil in space with some other roster savings and get a legit top 6'er for ~4 mil per over 3ish years.

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03-19-2010, 08:10 AM
  #68
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Your hatred? You've been the leader of the dislike-samuelsson-pack so you obviously dont see it. He had one of the best bang for buck cap hits in all of NHL in his years on the Wings and he still got flacked for it. He did that wrong and this wrong etc etc..
To be fair, Fugu hated/still hates Lilja too... who was probably the second best bang for the buck cap hit in the league.

Gotta admire her consistency, at least.

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03-19-2010, 11:01 AM
  #69
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Your hatred? You've been the leader of the dislike-samuelsson-pack so you obviously dont see it. He had one of the best bang for buck cap hits in all of NHL in his years on the Wings and he still got flacked for it. He did that wrong and this wrong etc etc..
Well, he did do some things poorly, imo. I think your projecting his 30G year onto his years with the Wings where he had: 23G, 14, 11, & 19 each year. Was that great for a $1.2m contract? Yup. Do you double his pay assuming the same trend? The question is moot. Wings didn't have the cap space, and they had several players who could play Babs' system and get 15-20G. That was Sammy's niche here.


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He's won almost everything there is to win and is a proven winner, clutch and good in both ends. After his contract ended Holland wasnt willing to give what he deserved so he looked for another place and got a deserving contract. Now he proves he is a good player outside Detroit and yet he's not a good player in your eyes.. he's overpaidsome of you say, how many 30+ goalscorers are there in this league getting paid 2.5M$ a season? Seriously just because Red Wings have been spoiled with great contracts in the cap era doesnt make him overpaid just because Wings werent willing to pay the man.
See, I agree with the bold part, but not the underlined part. Holland said he could not pay him what he deserved, thanks to the cap, never that Sammy's market value was above what the Wings could offer. Big difference.

I never once said he shouldn't leave for the better contract either. In fact, I was happy for him. The Wings had Dats, Z, Franzen, Homer, Filppula, Cleary, Draper, Maltby, Helm and Leino signed. Hudler was picked as the next piece.

Tell me who you dump to keep him?

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03-19-2010, 11:08 AM
  #70
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Sure you do, just do the math. Keep in mind I'm not including Cleary's first year because even though he was only making 450, he was also actually a 4th liner that whole year since he was only playing 10:30 a night. I'm including the times and the salaries when both guys were top 9 forwards.

Sammy: 537, 1.2, 1.2, 1.2, 2.5, 2.5, 2.5. = 11.637 mil over 7 years. 1.667 mil a year.

Cleary: 450, 662, 662, 2.8, 2.8, 2.8, 2.8, 2.8 = 15.324 mil over 7 [8] years. 2.189 mil a year. [correction: 15.774m total, over 8 yrs, $1.971/yr avg]


Even giving Sammy the full 2.5 over the full 3 years he still comes in at a 31% discount over Cleary.
First of all, you left off Cleary's first year, but included Sammy's. Tisk, tisk.

Let's just use the years and salary that you used to make their head-to-head comparison as Red Wings. I can massage the numbers too to support my position:

Sammy: $1.034m for 4 yrs, 278 games, 67G/149 Pts

Cleary: $1.143 for 4 yrs, 57G/137 Pts

This is where I point out that Sammy spent the first year on a top line with Z-Homer, and had PP IT the entire time. He generally had more top six minutes in the [especially] the first two years, while Cleary, as you noted started as a fourth line grinder.

(It's rather incredible what Holland was able to squeeze out of the cap when you look at this objectively).

I'd also gander that had Sammy's contract come up the year before Cleary's, or even around the same time, he might still be here and ~probably~ would have received the same money.

Let's also not overlook that maybe, just maybe, Cleary produced more from a lower position/starting point (in terms of lines, linemates, and PP time over those four years).

Furthermore, Vancouver doesn't have Babs for a coach. I seriously doubt that Sammy has the same defensive role there as he did with the Wings. In this sense, it's kind of unfair to compare scoring over the Wings shot suppression/defense first/puck possession years to how a player goes on to do in a more open system. (I'm hypothesizing since I haven't really watched many of the Canucks games, but did read that Luongo felt his numbers were off due to the more wide open system the Nucks were employing. Chew his head off, not mine. )

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I think it's a coin-flip. I think both guys have peaked as players and aren't going to get any better.

Truthfully, I'd rather have neither Cleary nor Sammy and bundle that 2.5-2.8 mil in space with some other roster savings and get a legit top 6'er for ~4 mil per over 3ish years.
Interesting. I think Cleary initially earned the pay hike, but as I said, he seems to have lost something and it does coincide with the injuries. I will admit that I did expect a bit more out of him offensively. (Similar argument to the one I use for Filppula.)

In general, I think I agree that you spend a bit more for a higher tier player and fill out the lower levels with the <$2m players. I think my Filppula/Hudler/Lilja (as a bottom pair guy) have revolved around one central theme-- spreading too much money on higher cost mid- to lower-tier guys. Depth is important, but it can't come at the expense of higher caliber players in key positions. For example, defensively the Wings will have some tough decisions once Howard has to be upped, and/or Lidstrom needs to be replaced. They may not have the luxury of paying a third line center or forward and 5/6 D guy $3m and 1.5-ish respectively.

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03-19-2010, 11:17 AM
  #71
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Pretty tough to argue Cleary>Sammy when one has 30 goals the other has 13.

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03-19-2010, 11:30 AM
  #72
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Pretty tough to argue Cleary>Sammy when one has 30 goals the other has 13.
No, it's not. Look at the Wings scoring overall. Would you give us Sammy for Dats or Z then? Franzen?

Again, the Wings play a defensive game as well. Sans the injuries, I think overall scoring would be higher, but no one on the team is having as good a year as Sammy.


Regardless, the point is moot. The Wings didn't have the cap space. I guarantee that without a cap, Sammy would still be here (assuming he wanted to stay). Babcock really liked him as a player.

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03-19-2010, 12:11 PM
  #73
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Pretty tough to argue Cleary>Sammy when one has 30 goals the other has 13.
If Cleary hadn't missed a dozen games and got to play with the Sedins a bunch, then we could talk about that being a valid comparison.

The way this team has scored this year, if Sammy had stayed he'd be lucky to have 13 goals.

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03-19-2010, 01:03 PM
  #74
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First of all, you left off Cleary's first year, but included Sammy's. Tisk, tisk.
Reading, as they say, is fundamental. To wit:

Me: "Keep in mind I'm not including Cleary's first year because even though he was only making 450, he was also actually a 4th liner that whole year since he was only playing 10:30 a night. I'm including the times and the salaries when both guys were top 9 forwards."

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This is where I point out that Sammy spent the first year on a top line with Z-Homer, and had PP IT the entire time.
On the point. And actually Cleary had more total PP IT in 2006-7 than Sammy did. Less per game (2:08 to 3:01) but Sammy only played 53 games that year.

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Furthermore, Vancouver doesn't have Babs for a coach. I seriously doubt that Sammy has the same defensive role there as he did with the Wings. In this sense, it's kind of unfair to compare scoring over the Wings shot suppression/defense first/puck possession years to how a player goes on to do in a more open system.
...and I'm not comparing Sammy in Vancouver to Cleary in Detroit. I took Sammy's production while he was in Detroit and compared it to Cleary's production while he was in Detroit and they were in similar (but not identical) top-9 roles. Really, me removing Cleary's first year in Detroit does him a huge favor, because had I left it in his per game production would have been cratered since that first year line was 77 games with 3g and 12a.

Instead of:

Sammy: 67 goals and 92 assists. (278 games)
Cleary: 67 goals and 84 assists. (245 games and counting)

You'd have:

Sammy: 67 goals and 92 assists. (278 games)
Cleary: 70 goals and 96 assists. (322 games and counting)

... and as you point out Sammy would STILL have been the better value by 20% instead of 31%, or a net $300,000 per year.

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03-19-2010, 01:08 PM
  #75
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Regardless, the point is moot. The Wings didn't have the cap space.
They did once Hudler got done screwing them.

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