Playoffs!!! Playoffs??? All stretch run talk here!
I know it's hard to believe when reading through threads on this board, but the Rangers ARE in fact in the playoff race. Plenty of hockey still left, and since I'm never on the tanking bandwagon, I decided we could follow the progress of the Rangers push for the playoffs. I have done similar threads in the past few seasons and they always seemed to coincide with a late Rangers push and eventual playoff berth.
So here's the scoop:
- 16 games left. About 20% of the season.
- 10 road games remaining, 6 home games. Including a season-long 6-game road trip. (Rangers have a superior road record)
- Remaining opponents: @NJ, @ATL, PHI, MON, STL, @BOS, NYI, @NJ, @TOR, @NYI, @TB, @FLA, @BUF, TOR, PHI, @PHI
- Combined record this season so far against all these teams: 15-11-6
- Probable record needed for a playoff berth: 11-5, or 89 pts*.
*I used information from this site. While it has normally taken around 92 pts. to make the playoffs in the EAST since the lockout, this season seems to be a much closer race, so 89-90 pts. might just be enough. That statistical website predicts that 89 pts. would give a team around an 85% chance of making the playoffs out of the EAST.
So in spite of all the tankers and doomsayers on this board, I really want the Rangers to make the playoffs. They have no chance at a lottery pick this season, and even if they get swept in the first round, there's really nothing like playoff hockey. Let's also not forget the Oilers of 2006.
haha, pics go bye bye, regardless, there is a lot of work to be done, and as much of an optimist (prime) that I am and that I BELIEVE they can do it... I just don't think they will.
Or the lottery run... considering we're only 6 pts ahead of the 4 and 5 team, and both have a game in hand on us.
As I've said, we're in a weird spot. Only a few points out of a playoff spot and a few points out of a top 5 pick. I just hope that we either finish in that playoff spot or in that top 5 spot because where we are now sucks.
To hit 90 points the Rangers have to average 1.4375 points per game.
Thus far this season they've averaged 1.015.
Coming off of the break i said they would have to get at least 3 wins (or any combination of 6 points) in the first 5 games to keep that 89-90 point pace. With one game left in that sequence they've gone 1-1-2, so its going to be really tough for them to get there if they lose against the Devils on Wednesday.
The reason i say that (besides the fact that this team sucks and i have little faith in them), is because of a number of reasons:
1. They are putrid at home - 14-15-6. People can say that they've got the job done in the past few seasons and made the playoffs by getting on a roll at the end of the year. A major part of that was due to their dominance at home - 26-11-4 in 08/09 and 25-13-3 in 07/08. They've already surpassed those records in the loss category and there are 6 home games left. Can't compare.
2. They lack the overtime and shootout success they've had in the past. The past few seasons they've been the benefit of many shootout wins, and some overtime luck as well. This year i can't even remember an OT winner other than Ollis and forget shootouts this year. The magic is gone in that category, so its going to be tough to get that extra point.
3. 7 out of the 9 teams around them in the race have games in hand, 5 of those 7 have 2 games in hand. The only team thats played more games (1) is the Canadiens and they are now 3 points up on the Rangers with 3 more wins and pulling away.
4. Half of the games remaining are against teams in a playoff spot. Thats actually not that bad, because there are 8 games against some "easy" competition. BUT - Combined they are 6-7-1 against those teams, a .92 point per game average. Nothing to write home about, especially when you'll need close to 1.5 points per game to get in. So for those who will argue that they'll have some easy opponents to get some points from, they havent beat up on the "bad" teams this year - a sign that themselves are in fact, bad - and unfortunately not good enough for a playoff berth.
Last edited by HockeyBasedNYC: 03-08-2010 at 02:27 PM.
Definetely hurts our chances when the coach puts DRURY on the ice for more 4 on 4 than anyone else, and he has a guys who are much more skilled especially 4 on 4 sitting on the bench.
As I've said, we're in a weird spot. Only a few points out of a playoff spot and a few points out of a top 5 pick. I just hope that we either finish in that playoff spot or in that top 5 spot because where we are now sucks.
What will that change drafting a guy we will not see four atleast 2-3 years, and having the same team, naybe worse next year. We will still have Drury and Redden and not to metnion a crippled Gaborik who has played more games this season than usuall and dont think from what i see he will be able to keep 60+ games next season. Hey drafting a good young player is great but, that doesent do much unless you are aquriing a guy like Stamkos.
4. Half of the games remaining are against teams in a playoff spot. Thats actually not that bad, because there are 8 games against some "easy" competition. BUT - Combined they are 6-7-1 against those teams, a .92 point per game average. Nothing to write home about, especially when you'll need close to 1.5 points per game to get in. So for those who will argue that they'll have some easy opponents to get some points from, they havent beat up on the "bad" teams this year - a sign that themselves are in fact, bad - and unfortunately not good enough for a playoff berth.
Your post makes alot of sense. I agree with the other 3 points BUT we are not the only one with a tough schedule down the stretch.
Here is Bostons in comparison to ours.
Top teams [6 games]
NJx2
Pens
Phili
Buffalo
Caps
Good teams [7 games]
MTL
Carolina
NYR
ATL
TBL
Calgary
FLA
Scrubs [2 games]
Toronto X 2
And now ours
Top teams [6 games]
NJ X 2
Phili X 3
Buff Good teams [5 games]
ATL
MTL
Boston
TBL
FLA Scrubs [5 games]
Stl.
NYI X 2
TO X 2
And the fact that Boston just lost Savard says we will be sitting in their spot in a few weeks.
To me, It's a 3 way battle for 7/8th seed between MTL/TBL/NYR.
Tampa's schedule is as follows.
Top teams [8 games]
Caps
Pitts
Phx
Buff
Wash
Buff
Pitts
Ottawa
Good teams [6 games]
Mtl
Fla
Car X 2
NYR
Boston
Scrubs [1 games]
TO
To me, it seems we have the easiest schedule in terms of opponent strength.
As I've said, we're in a weird spot. Only a few points out of a playoff spot and a few points out of a top 5 pick. I just hope that we either finish in that playoff spot or in that top 5 spot because where we are now sucks.
I think the Rangers will play good enough to JUST miss the playoffs and the lottery picks.
What will that change drafting a guy we will not see four atleast 2-3 years, and having the same team, naybe worse next year. We will still have Drury and Redden and not to metnion a crippled Gaborik who has played more games this season than usuall and dont think from what i see he will be able to keep 60+ games next season. Hey drafting a good young player is great but, that doesent do much unless you are aquriing a guy like Stamkos.
Please, tell me what you see, because this is what I see:
Gaborik has missed SIX regular season games so far this year. Two were earlier in the year; the other four have been the result of a freak injury where he cut his leg on Lundqvist's skate in practice. In between missing a couple of games before and after the Olympics, due to that cut, he played in the Olympics and almost won a Bronze medal. He played in 7 Olympic contests, if I'm not mistaken, so despite missing 6 games this year, 4 of which were the result of a cut suffered in practice and not some kind of nagging injury like we were all worried about when we signed Gabby, it's almost as if he didn't miss any games at all (injury wise, obviously the 6 he missed affected the Rangers). What makes you think he won't be able to play 60+ games next year?
