hes set to outpace Pavs by a pretty good margin, hes up about 20 points right now, though pavs has a lot less games played. I am really not sure hes the correct equiv. I also think the Nucks overpaid in order to lock him up long term.
6 Joe Pavelski SJS C 55 21 24 45
3 Ryan Kesler VAN C 71 21 45 66
hes set to outpace Pavs by a pretty good margin, hes up about 20 points right now, though pavs has a lot less games played. I am really not sure hes the correct equiv. I also think the Nucks overpaid in order to lock him up long term.
6 Joe Pavelski SJS C 55 21 24 45
3 Ryan Kesler VAN C 71 21 45 66
I really think they got a great deal for him, long-term.
He does just about everything (except score a point a game).
I do like Weiss though and think his contract is fair, though Pavs will get more money, probably closer to Roy
Pavs has production around Weiss and Roy, but TOI around Kesler. IMO, the production will trump, meaning a lower salary. Roy is more similar to the way Pavelski is used than Weiss. It is only this year that Weiss is getting his minutes increased and getting substantial use on PK.
Pavs has production around Weiss and Roy, but TOI around Kesler. IMO, the production will trump, meaning a lower salary. Roy is more similar to the way Pavelski is used than Weiss. It is only this year that Weiss is getting his minutes increased and getting substantial use on PK.
Weiss was also given more of a shot to succeed this year.
Im iffy on Pavs production numbers since his wingers are so hit and miss. They remind me of Pattys from a few seasons ago (not that pavs has pattys talent).
Knowing DW, he signs a 4 year 3.8-4.3 million dollar deal. If I am pavs I am looking for a 2 year 3.5 and hope I can cash in afterwards on a longer term deal.
Ryan Kesler's contract is at six years at about $29.5 million. It's $4.25 million for the first two years, then $5.25 million for four
Long-term deals with players in their mid twenties (eg, Pavelski) are covering traditionally the most productive years of their career, leaving the player with less leverage when it expires in his thirties. It's the opposite when it comes to older players, ie, in their early thirties (eg, Marleau).
So if you break Kesler's (who is also in his mid twenties) contract down, it's two contracts in one:
2 yrs @ $4.25M
4 yrs @ $5.25M
Pavelski, if he was to sign a two or three year deal, would likely average between $3 to 3.5M. If his was to be a six year deal, then he would also get two contracts in one, example:
first 3 yrs @ $3.25M
next 3 yrs @ $4.25M
I'll bet he sticks to a two to three year term in an attempt to show the team he's worth more than ~$4.25M in his late twenties. I'm sure DW will be fine with that since it will keep the cap hit down.
In the case of Kesler, he's having a career year after coming off a Selke nomination. No time like the present then to cash in.
Last edited by JawandaPuck: 03-19-2010 at 01:18 PM.
Long-term deals with players in their mid twenties (eg, Pavelski) are covering traditionally the most productive years of their career, leaving the player with less leverage when it expires in his thirties. It's the opposite when it comes to older players, ie, in their early thirties (eg, Marleau).
So if you break Kesler's (who is also in his mid twenties) contract down, it's two contracts in one:
2 yrs @ $4.25M
4 yrs @ $5.25M
Pavelski, if he was to sign a two or three year deal, would likely average between $3 to 3.5M. If his was to be a six year deal, then he would also get two contracts in one, example:
first 3 yrs @ $3.25M
next 3 yrs @ $4.25M
I'll bet he sticks to a two to three year term in an attempt to show the team he's worth more than ~$4.25M in his late twenties. I'm sure DW will be fine with that since it will keep the cap hit down.
In the case of Kesler, he's having a career year after coming off a Selke nomination. No time like the present then to cash in.
I pretty much agree......3.5 million each for 3 seasons.
hes set to outpace Pavs by a pretty good margin, hes up about 20 points right now, though pavs has a lot less games played. I am really not sure hes the correct equiv. I also think the Nucks overpaid in order to lock him up long term.
6 Joe Pavelski SJS C 55 21 24 45
3 Ryan Kesler VAN C 71 21 45 66
Sorry to intrude but I disagree,Kesler is the heart and soul of the Canucks he'll do anything to win,he's arguably the best two-way forward in the game,and is scoring at a near PPG pace.
Actually, one does not have to go any further than SJ -- just look at the Ryane Clowe re-signing last season.
Do you know that contracts are done by comparables, even those not submitted to arbitration?
Clowe is a power forward type. He would be compared to Bernier and Backes on one end and Franzen on the other. Pavs is a second line (smallish) center. There are several of us here like O2G, Matt Trick, et al who use players who are very likely to be brought up in negotiation. Transcripts of arbitrations have been available as well as reports of negotiations to see exactly how it is done. It was really fun to see that the group of us picked off some guys who were exactly the guys used in those negotiations.
Do you know that contracts are done by comparables, even those not submitted to arbitration?
Clowe is a power forward type. He would be compared to Bernier and Backes on one end and Franzen on the other. Pavs is a second line (smallish) center. There are several of us here like O2G, Matt Trick, et al who use players who are very likely to be brought up in negotiation. Transcripts of arbitrations have been available as well as reports of negotiations to see exactly how it is done. It was really fun to see that the group of us picked off some guys who were exactly the guys used in those negotiations.
Arbitration transcripts notwithstanding, power forward or small center are simply sub categories. For top six forwards, the bottom line comparable is offensive production. Next is the level of free agency (ie, RFA, UFA), after that could be age. All other attributes (power forward, small center, playmaking center, sniper, etc) just help define the final number that much more but only if a properly comparable player can be found (which by now one usually can be found).
To illustrate this point, I'll use an extreme example: if a UFA "small center" scored 120 points the season of his pending free agency, his agent will not be using the next smallish forward as his comparable if he can only find one that was an RFA, who was scoring at a 60 point pace when he signed his deal. The agent will attempt to use whomever has scored 120 points as his comparable, even if that player is a power forward.
My only concern is RFA. I think someone would love to offer sheet Pavs and if that happens, we've got problems.
A reasonable all around deal IMO is $4m per. He's one of the better 2nd line centres (for our team needs) out there but doesn't (and probably won't) ever produce like a top line centre so I can't see it being for much more.
4 years, $16m would be more than fair IMO, especially if that takes him to UFA status (I have no idea, would it?) which will raise his negotiation position too.
