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Rangers in hunt for Zuccarello-Aasen (Toronto Star: Signs with NYR?)

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Old
04-18-2010, 01:06 PM
  #501
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Quote:
Originally Posted by azrok22 View Post
I don't expect 70 points, or even 50. However, you can't ignore that the potential is there... and he costs nothing but $$$.
Oh I am excited for him too. Don't get me wrong. I just hope people don't expect too much, he is still very young and has never played in NA.

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04-18-2010, 01:21 PM
  #502
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Originally Posted by Jonathan. View Post
Hey, if MZA can hit even 40 points his first year, it's a huge success.
Not really

For the amount of hype he's getting, I think 60 would be a "huge success". I would be disappointed if he only got 40 points considering some people are saying he has elite attributes

That said, I don't know if the Rangers will be patient with him if he doesn't show anything right away. I think Sather and co. are expecting him to be a top 6 player next season for us, otherwise they might just quickly write him off as another failed experiment.

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04-18-2010, 01:32 PM
  #503
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I like this for no other reason than the fact that this is basically the equivalent to the Rangers having two 1st round draft picks this year.

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04-18-2010, 01:32 PM
  #504
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Originally Posted by ThirdEye View Post
Not really

For the amount of hype he's getting, I think 60 would be a "huge success". I would be disappointed if he only got 40 points considering some people are saying he has elite attributes

That said, I don't know if the Rangers will be patient with him if he doesn't show anything right away. I think Sather and co. are expecting him to be a top 6 player next season for us, otherwise they might just quickly write him off as another failed experiment.
Anisimov has a lot of talent too and he didn't break 40 points in his first season in the NHL after playing 2 years in NA. I think we will see flashes but its a longer season than he is used to, a smaller ice surface and a more physical game.

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04-18-2010, 01:36 PM
  #505
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Quote:
Originally Posted by azrok22 View Post
According to Gabe Desjardins' league translations, we can expect ~70 points for MZA in the NHL next year!

http://www.coppernblue.com/2010/2/20...ats-zuccarello

EDIT: Scouting report from that link
Okay, I'm going record right and declaring that, if MZA puts up 70 points next year, not only will the Rangers make the playoffs, but they'll have one of the top 4 records in the East. Because, if you get 70 points out of your 2nd line RW, you would think you're getting quality production out of both your 1st and 2nd lines.

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04-18-2010, 01:45 PM
  #506
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Originally Posted by jas View Post
Okay, I'm going record right and declaring that, if MZA puts up 70 points next year, not only will the Rangers make the playoffs, but they'll have one of the top 4 records in the East. Because, if you get 70 points out of your 2nd line RW, you would think you're getting quality production out of both your 1st and 2nd lines.
Well he will be our 2nd line RW.

I think hoping for ~70 points is very optimistic. If the line looks like Dubi - AA - MZA, I think we could hope for ~40-50 points out of him.

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04-18-2010, 01:54 PM
  #507
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Outside of Brunnstrom, anyone have other examples of Desjardin's league translation voodoo?

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04-18-2010, 02:02 PM
  #508
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He predicted 67 points for Omark this season if he had joined the Oilers... 67 points in the NHL... The kid haven't hit 40 in the KHL... Hm...

EDIT: True he's only played 56 games in Russia...

Quote:
When you consider that Omark was a full year younger than Brunnstrom, those totals become even more remarkable. Based on the performance of players coming from different leagues to the NHL, Gabriel Desjardins developed a projection system to give a ball-park idea of a player’s likely contribution. Here is his projection for Omark over an 82 game schedule:

* Omark: 82GP – 28G – 39A – 67PTS
http://oilersnation.com/2009/4/8/lin...und-for-russia


Last edited by King of cool: 04-18-2010 at 02:22 PM.
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04-18-2010, 02:04 PM
  #509
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ze Agitator View Post
He predicted 67 points for Omark this season if he had joined the Oilers... 67 points in the NHL... The kid haven't hit 40 in the KHL... Hm...




http://oilersnation.com/2009/4/8/lin...und-for-russia
To be fair, there is a disparity in the translation of scoring from the NHL to the KHL.

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Old
04-18-2010, 02:05 PM
  #510
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ze Agitator View Post
Outside of Brunnstrom, anyone have other examples of Desjardin's league translation voodoo?
You can do it for any player (well, unless they played in a beer league he hasn't done).

Anisimov: AHL last year: 81 points in 80 games
Projected stats: 35.2 points in 80 games
Actual: 28 in 82

http://www.behindthenet.ca/translations.html

EDIT: He admits it's harder for Canadian Juniors: "The difficulty of Canadian Major Junior is lower than predicted by this method since major junior players are 20 years old or younger and consequently experience significant skills growth from year-to-year."

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04-18-2010, 02:28 PM
  #511
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Originally Posted by hockeyviper87 View Post
Anisimov has a lot of talent too and he didn't break 40 points in his first season in the NHL after playing 2 years in NA. I think we will see flashes but its a longer season than he is used to, a smaller ice surface and a more physical game.
True, but from the videos I've seen of Aasen I think he might be more skilled than Anisimov, and certainly much faster. He's obviously smaller, but I don't think Anisimov really took advantage of his size this year. Also, the SEL imo is a better league than the AHL.

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04-18-2010, 02:30 PM
  #512
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Zuccarello definitely has more skill then AA. Because he is smaller, he is more shiftier then AA which gives him an advantage to pull of some nice moves in tight.

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04-18-2010, 02:32 PM
  #513
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frodo from modo

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04-18-2010, 02:41 PM
  #514
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haha Frodo from Modo. Permission to steal ?

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04-18-2010, 02:41 PM
  #515
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Quote:
Originally Posted by azrok22 View Post
You can do it for any player (well, unless they played in a beer league he hasn't done).

Anisimov: AHL last year: 81 points in 80 games
Projected stats: 35.2 points in 80 games
Actual: 28 in 82

http://www.behindthenet.ca/translations.html

EDIT: He admits it's harder for Canadian Juniors: "The difficulty of Canadian Major Junior is lower than predicted by this method since major junior players are 20 years old or younger and consequently experience significant skills growth from year-to-year."
You overestimate my skills... Can't figure out how 64 points in 55 games in the SEL translates into 70 in the NHL over 82 games... I knew all this time I spent sleeping in maths class would come back haunt me one day...

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04-18-2010, 02:53 PM
  #516
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ThirdEye View Post
True, but from the videos I've seen of Aasen I think he might be more skilled than Anisimov, and certainly much faster. He's obviously smaller, but I don't think Anisimov really took advantage of his size this year. Also, the SEL imo is a better league than the AHL.
Sure, but I think expecting him to come in and put up 40+ points may be a tad high.

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04-18-2010, 03:03 PM
  #517
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Originally Posted by Ze Agitator View Post
You overestimate my skills... Can't figure out how 64 points in 55 games in the SEL translates into 70 in the NHL over 82 games... I knew all this time I spent sleeping in maths class would come back haunt me one day...
The 70 (in 83) comes right from the article. It's calculating it not just on his numbers this year, but also his numbers from last year.

Quote:
In 83 games in the Elite League, his totals read like an all-star: 30 goals, 61 assists, 91 points. Gabe Desjardins' excellent work on league translations shows an eye-opening 70 NHLE points in that span. The stat lines and translations are below.
http://www.coppernblue.com/2010/2/20...ats-zuccarello

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04-18-2010, 03:05 PM
  #518
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Overhyping him already.

For all we know this guy hasnt played 1 single NHL game and your plugging him in for 50 + points. Im not denying his skill but if your expecting more than 50 points your gonna be disappointed.

If he hit the 35 pt mark Id be happy.

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04-18-2010, 03:12 PM
  #519
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Originally Posted by SI Ranger View Post
Overhyping him already.

For all we know this guy hasnt played 1 single NHL game and your plugging him in for 50 + points. Im not denying his skill but if your expecting more than 50 points your gonna be disappointed.

If he hit the 35 pt mark Id be happy.
There's a difference between overhyping a player and relying on a statistical conversion.

Overhyping him would be saying, he's good for 80 points without any statistic justification. The 70 points is based purely on conversion (and one that's shown to be relatively accurate in the past).

I don't expect 70 points, partly because I don't expect him to be in the NHL the full season and to play 82 games. 40 points would be amazing... heck, anything helps, and all he cost is $$$.

If you said I was "hyping" him, I's agree. It's not "overhyping" because he's earned exactly that projection based on the model's conversion of his SEL performance. His Olympic performance only added additional justification.

EDIT: I think some people are too focused on other Europeans we've signed, like Ambuhl. MZA is not Ambuhl... MZA was the SEL leading scorer.

I liken such an analogy to the people who are against signing a player like Kovalchuk because Redden, Gomez, and Drury have been UFA flops. It's like comparing apples to lobster.

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Old
04-18-2010, 03:34 PM
  #520
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Quote:
Originally Posted by azrok22 View Post
The 70 (in 83) comes right from the article. It's calculating it not just on his numbers this year, but also his numbers from last year.

http://www.coppernblue.com/2010/2/20...ats-zuccarello
That's precisely the calculation method I can't figure out. How does Desjardins translate an average 1.09 PPG in the SEL to a 0.85 PPG in the NHL, whereas the player have not played there yet? I give up, I already missed half the game...

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04-18-2010, 03:43 PM
  #521
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honestly, i dont even expect him to make the lineup out of camp. just too many unknowns. if he does, and makes an impact...awesome...but im not even including him in my projections for next year right now.

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04-18-2010, 03:45 PM
  #522
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Originally Posted by Ze Agitator View Post
That's precisely the calculation method I can't figure out. How does Desjardins translate an average 1.09 PPG in the SEL to a 0.85 PPG in the NHL, whereas the player have not played there yet? I give up, I already missed half the game...
Ah, I see now... the documentation isn't clear, I agree.

My understanding is you simply apply the league "difficulty" factor to the player's "other league" stats to arrive at the equivalent NHL stats.

So for MZA: 91 (in 83 games) x .78 (SEL "difficulty) = 70.98

Then you convert that number to an 82 game season - in this case: 70.98 x (82/83) = 70.12, which the article rounded down to 70 points.

Hope that helped, and that my understanding is correct.

EDIT: If I misunderstood and you're talking about how he came up with the numbers, he looked at former players that converted from each league to the NHL, and how they performed in each to determine the "difficulty" factor.

Quote:
honestly, i dont even expect him to make the lineup out of camp. just too many unknowns. if he does, and makes an impact...awesome...but im not even including him in my projections for next year right now.
Depends on what other moves we make. Right now, I think he definitely could win the #3 RW spot out of camp. Add 2 forward acquisitions and he starts in Hartford, imo.

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Old
04-18-2010, 04:00 PM
  #523
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Quote:
Originally Posted by azrok22 View Post
Ah, I see now... the documentation isn't clear, I agree.

My understanding is you simply apply the league "difficulty" factor to the player's "other league" stats to arrive at the equivalent NHL stats.

So for MZA: 91 (in 83 games) x .78 (SEL "difficulty) = 70.98

Then you convert that number to an 82 game season - in this case: 70.98 x (82/83) = 70.12, which the article rounded down to 70 points.

Hope that helped, and that my understanding is correct.

EDIT: If I misunderstood and you're talking about how he came up with the numbers, he looked at former players that converted from each league to the NHL, and how they performed in each to determine the "difficulty" factor.
No, That's great, loud and clear. Fact is, I got we had to use the 0.78 from the SEL. But not the fact we had to convert the result as it reflects on a 82 schedule... So, using his stats from this season, I came up with something like 49 points, instead of ~68... Thanks for the help, I'll go to bed smarter tonight.

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04-18-2010, 05:38 PM
  #524
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Its a good signing there is very little risk involved. Hopefully he can add some playing making and scoring to the secondary lines next year.

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04-18-2010, 08:25 PM
  #525
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Matt Gilroy part deux.

Seriously, we're saying all the same things. It costs nothing but money, it's like having two first round picks...

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